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Axel Michaelowa 《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):521-523
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BCC_CSM气候系统模式移植优化及其气候模拟验证 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为了提高BCC_CSM气候系统模式运行效率,保障业务科研工作的顺利开展,进行BCC_CSM气候系统模式在IBM高性能计算系统的移植工作;通过性能优化使BCC_CSM模式运行效率显著提高,通过气候要素形势场分布和相对误差量化指标对BCC_CSM气候系统模式模拟性能进行验证。结果表明：移植优化后,BCC_CSM气候系统模式计算效率提高为原来的1.4倍;基于CMIP5 piControl试验,完成531-540年10 a的气候模拟,年平均地表气温形势场分布合理,相对误差小于0.5%,BCC_CSM气候系统模式计算和模拟性能均能满足应用需求。 相似文献
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Violins and climate 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Summary This paper explores the possibility of using ring-width measurements derived from string instruments as a potential source of palaeoclimate information. From a data-base of 1800 measured series, we have identified two sub-sets that compare well with living high elevation spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) chronologies from the Bavarian Forest and Austrian Alps. The problems of using historical tree-ring data for dendroclimatic purposes are addressed and by combining the living and historic ring-width data from these two regions, a preliminary proxy of past June/July mean temperatures is developed. This proxy summer temperature record shows striking similarities with a tree-ring based temperature reconstruction for the Central Eastern Alps, the CLIMHIST June/July temperature record from Switzerland and glacial records from the Austrian Alps. This explorative study demonstrates that ring-width series from string instruments may allow the identification of generalised source regions of wood used for instrument making and, most importantly, provide a new unique source for palaeoclimate information at a variety of both temporal and spatial scales for high elevations in central Europe. 相似文献
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The Amazon region has been undergoing profound transformations since the late ‘70s through forest degradation, land use changes and effects of global climate change. The perception of such changes by local communities is important for risk analysis and for subsequent societal decision making. In this study, we compare and contrast observations and perceptions of climate change by selected Amazonian communities particularly vulnerable to alterations in precipitation regimes. Two main points were analysed: (i) the notion of changes in the annual climate cycle and (ii) the notion of changes in rainfall patterns. About 72% of the sampled population reports perceptions of climate changes, and there is a robust signal of increased perception with age. Other possible predictive parameters such as gender, fishing frequency and changes in/planning of economic activities do not appear overall as contributing to perceptions. The communities’ perceptions of the changes in 2013–2014 were then compared to earlier results (2007–2008), providing an unprecedented cohort study of the same sites. Results show that climate change perceptions and measured rainfall variations differ across the basin. It was only in the southern part of the Amazon that both measured and perceived changes in rainfall patterns were consistent with decreased precipitation. However, the perception of a changing climate became more widespread and frequently mentioned, signalling an increase in awareness of climate risk. 相似文献
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This study examines in detail the ‘atmospheric’ radiative feedbacks operating in a coupled General Circulation Model (GCM). These feedbacks (defined as the change in top of atmosphere radiation per degree of global surface temperature change) are due to responses in water vapour, lapse rate, clouds and surface albedo. Two types of radiative feedback in particular are considered: those arising from century scale ‘transient’ warming (from a 1% per annum compounded CO2 increase), and those operating under the model’s own unforced ‘natural’ variability. The time evolution of the transient (or ‘secular’) feedbacks is first examined. It is found that both the global strength and the latitudinal distributions of these feedbacks are established within the first two or three decades of warming, and thereafter change relatively little out to 100 years. They also closely approximate those found under equilibrium warming from a ‘mixed layer’ ocean version of the same model forced by a doubling of CO2. These secular feedbacks are then compared with those operating under unforced (interannual) variability. For water vapour, the interannual feedback is only around two-thirds the strength of the secular feedback. The pattern reveals widespread regions of negative feedback in the interannual case, in turn resulting from patterns of circulation change and regions of decreasing as well as increasing surface temperature. Considering the vertical structure of the two, it is found that although positive net mid to upper tropospheric contributions dominate both, they are weaker (and occur lower) under interannual variability than under secular change and are more narrowly confined to the tropics. Lapse rate feedback from variability shows weak negative feedback over low latitudes combined with strong positive feedback in mid-to-high latitudes resulting in no net global feedback—in contrast to the dominant negative low to mid-latitude response seen under secular climate change. Surface albedo feedback is, however, slightly stronger under interannual variability—partly due to regions of extremely weak, or even negative, feedback over Antarctic sea ice in the transient experiment. Both long and shortwave global cloud feedbacks are essentially zero on interannual timescales, with the shortwave term also being very weak under climate change, although cloud fraction and optical property components show correlation with global temperature both under interannual variability and transient climate change. The results of this modelling study, although for a single model only, suggest that the analogues provided by interannual variability may provide some useful pointers to some aspects of climate change feedback strength, particularly for water vapour and surface albedo, but that structural differences will need to be heeded in such an analysis. 相似文献
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Leo Šeparović Adelina Alexandru René Laprise Andrey Martynov Laxmi Sushama Katja Winger Kossivi Tete Michel Valin 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):3167-3201
The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) was used to dynamically downscale two Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM) simulations of the transient climate change for the period 1950–2100, over North America, following the CORDEX protocol. The CRCM5 was driven by data from the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR CGCM simulations, based on the historical (1850–2005) and future (2006–2100) RCP4.5 radiative forcing scenario. The results show that the CRCM5 simulations reproduce relatively well the current-climate North American regional climatic features, such as the temperature and precipitation multiannual means, annual cycles and temporal variability at daily scale. A cold bias was noted during the winter season over western and southern portions of the continent. CRCM5-simulated precipitation accumulations at daily temporal scale are much more realistic when compared with its driving CGCM simulations, especially in summer when small-scale driven convective precipitation has a large contribution over land. The CRCM5 climate projections imply a general warming over the continent in the 21st century, especially over the northern regions in winter. The winter warming is mostly contributed by the lower percentiles of daily temperatures, implying a reduction in the frequency and intensity of cold waves. A precipitation decrease is projected over Central America and an increase over the rest of the continent. For the average precipitation change in summer however there is little consensus between the simulations. Some of these differences can be attributed to the uncertainties in CGCM-projected changes in the position and strength of the Pacific Ocean subtropical high pressure. 相似文献
9.
Brian C. O'Neill Paul Crutzen Arnulf Grübler Minh Ha Duong Klaus Keller Charles Kolstad 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):585-589
Abstract Learning—i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty—plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today. 相似文献
10.
《Global Environmental Change》2003,13(1):7-17
Despite it being the most studied and arguably most profound of global environmental change problems, there is relatively little research that explores climate change as a security issue. This paper systematically explores the range of possible connections between climate change and security, including national security considerations, human security concerns, military roles, and a discussion of the widely held assumption that climate change may trigger violent conflict. The paper explains the ways in which climate change is a security issue. It includes in its discussion issues to do with both mitigation and adaptation of climate change. 相似文献
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根据对乌伊岭区气候资源的分析,对乌伊岭进行了农业气候区域的划分,分成A、B、C区,A区又分成两个亚区A1、A2。简要提出了每个区域是否适应农业的发展。 相似文献
14.
Jennifer C. Whitman Jiaying Zhao Kevin H. Roberts Rebecca M. Todd 《Climatic change》2018,147(3-4):383-394
Despite the scientific consensus, there is widespread public controversy about climate change. Previous explanations focused on interpretations hampered by political bias or insufficient knowledge of climate facts. We propose that public views of climate change may also be related to an attentional bias at a more basic level of cognitive processing. We hypothesized that selective visual attention towards or away from climate-related information would be associated with climate concern. To test prioritization of climate-related stimuli under conditions of limited attention, we asked participants to identify climate-related and neutral words within a rapid stream of stimuli. Undergraduate students attended to climate-related words more readily than neutral words. This attentional prioritization correlated with self-rated climate concern. We then examined this relationship in a more diverse community sample. Principal component analysis of survey data in the community sample revealed a component indexing a relationship between climate concern and political orientation. That component was correlated with the degree of selective inattention to climate-related words. Our findings suggest that climate-related communications may be most effective if tailored in a manner accounting for how attentional priorities differ between audiences—particularly those with different political orientations. 相似文献
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Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator. 相似文献
16.
The Green Climate Fund (GCF) is a significant and potentially innovative addition to UNFCCC frameworks for mobilizing increased finance for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Yet the GCF faces challenges of operationalization not only as a relatively new international fund but also as a result of US President Trump’s announcement that the United States would withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Consequently the GCF faces a major reduction in actual funding contributions and also governance challenges at the levels of its Board and the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP), to which it is ultimately accountable. This article analyzes these challenges with reference to the GCF’s internal regulations and its agreements with third parties to demonstrate how exploiting design features of the GCF could strengthen its resilience in the face of such challenges. These features include linkages with UNFCCC constituted bodies, particularly the Technology Mechanism, and enhanced engagement with non-Party stakeholders, especially through its Private Sector Facility. The article posits that deepening GCF interlinkages would increase both the coherence of climate finance governance and the GCF’s ability to contribute to ambitious climate action in uncertain times.
Key policy insights
The Trump Administration’s purported withdrawal from the Paris Agreement creates challenges for the GCF operating model in three key domains: capitalization, governance and guidance.
Two emerging innovations could prove crucial in GCF resilience to fulfil its role in Paris Agreement implementation: (1) interlinkages with other UNFCCC bodies, especially the Technology Mechanism; and (2) engagement with non-Party stakeholders, especially private sector actors such as large US investors and financiers.
There is also an emerging soft role for the GCF as interlocutor between policy-makers and non-Party actors to help bridge the communication divide that often plagues cross-sectoral interactions.
This role could develop through: (a) the GCF tripartite interface between the Private Sector Facility, Accredited Entities and National Designated Authorities; and (b) strengthened collaborations between the UNFCCC Technical and Financial Mechanisms.
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The effective management of climate change on a national as well as an international level requires close co-operation between the scientific community and the political sector. Climate change first became a major subject of scientific inquiry in the early 1980s, and real political interest in the issue was awakened towards the end of that decade. In the last few years, the dialogue between the scientific community and the political sector has increased considerably. As a result, climate change is today one of the most significant areas in environmental research and international environmental policy alike.This paper examines the emergence and consolidation of international climate change regime. The theory of regime building is used as discussed by Young (1989). International Cooperation. Cornell University Press, Ithaca. The paper begins with an outline of the historical emergence of climate research and climate policy. This is followed by a discussion of the history and development of the Rio Convention, with a look at the latest developments in international climate politics. The next section begins with an examination of the foundations and present strategies of Finnish climate policy, which is used as a case study, and the paper concludes with an assessment of the current state of Finnish climate policy, illustrating the problems of compliance individual countries face when adopting the norms and principles of the regime. 相似文献
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Joel B. Smith Kenneth M. Strzepek Julio Cardini Mario Castaneda Julie Holland Carlos Quiroz Tom M. L. Wigley Jose Herrero Peter Hearne John Furlow 《Climatic change》2011,108(3):457-470
La Ceiba, Honduras, a city of about 200,000 people, lies along the Caribbean Sea, nestled against a mountain range and the
Rio Cangrejal. The city faces three flooding risks: routine flooding of city streets due to the lack of a stormwater drainage
system; occasional major flooding of the Rio Cangrejal, which flows through the city; and flooding from heavy rainfall events
and storm surges associated with tropical cyclones. In this study, we applied a method developed for the U.S. Agency for International
Development and then worked with stakeholders in La Ceiba to understand climate change risks and evaluate adaptation alternatives.
We estimated the impacts of climate change on the current flooding risks and on efforts to mitigate the flooding problems.
The climate change scenarios, which addressed sea level rise and flooding, were based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change estimates of sea level rise (Houghton et al. 2001) and published literature linking changes in temperature to more intense precipitation (Trenberth et al., Bull Am Meteorol
Soc, 84:1205–1217, 2003) and hurricanes (Knutson and Tuleya, J Clim, 17:3477–3495, 2004). Using information from Trenberth et al., Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 84:1205–1217, (2003) and Knutson and Tuleya, J Clim, 17:3477–3495, 2004, we scaled intense precipitation and hurricane wind speed based on projected temperature increases. We estimated the volume
of precipitation in intense events to increase by 2 to 4% in 2025 and by 6 to 14% by 2050. A 13% increase in intense precipitation,
the high scenario for 2050, could increase peak 5-year flood flows by about 60%. Building an enhanced urban drainage system
that could cope with the estimated increased flooding would cost one-third more than building a system to handle current climate
conditions, but would avoid costlier reconstruction in the future. The flow of the Rio Cangrejal would increase by one-third
from more intense hurricanes. The costs of raising levees to protect the population from increased risks from climate change
would be about $1 million. The coast west of downtown La Ceiba is the most vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges.
It is relatively undeveloped, but is projected to have rapid development. Setbacks on coastal construction in that area may
limit risks. The downtown coastline is also at risk and may need to be protected with groins and sand pumping. Stakeholders
in La Ceiba concluded that addressing problems of urban drainage should be a top priority. They emphasized improved management
of the Rio Cangrejal watershed and improved storm warnings to cope with risks from extreme precipitation and cyclones. Adoption
of risk management principles and effective land use management could also help reduce risks from current climate and climate
change. 相似文献
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Yu. A. Izrael 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2008,33(10):611-613
Over the last 20 years the mankind has been concerned about the problem of anthropogenic climate warming influencing noticeably many physical and biological systems and processes. Both negative and positive consequences are observed herein. Mankind attempts to take actions against climate warming using the efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions (first of all CO2), however, these attempts give little results. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been thoroughly assessing climate changes and their consequences over 20 years. It was noted that average global temperature over the last 100 years increased by 0.74°C. In the last report of the IPCC (2007), it was shown that to prevent warming by 2050 (at acceptable level) the CO2 global emission should be cut by 50–85%, what is technologically impossible. Other methods are suggested to stabilize a modern climate, in particular, to introduce fine-disperse aerosol particles into the lower stratosphere. It is noteworthy that the Meeting of Presidents (and their Representatives) of Academies of Sciences from 13 countries to prepare a Statement for the G8 Summit in Tokyo in 2007, considered in detail the author’s proposal and insert a paragraph, where the research of that method (including holding a conference) was approved. 相似文献
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The use of a relatively high resolution general circulation model (the Meteorological Office 5-layer model) to determine climate changes for impact studies is evaluated. The simulation of present day climate over Western Europe is assessed by comparing not only different seasons with climatological data, but also the mean annual cycle and the frequency of extreme events. It is found that while the broad features of the simulation are satisfactory, the model produces too many cold episodes in spring, and an excessive number of wet days over northern Europe. When atmospheric CO2 concentrations are quadrupled, and sea surface temperatures and sea ice extents changed appropriately, the number of cold episodes is reduced and precipitation is less frequent in summer and autumn over much of Europe, and throughout the year in the south. The relevance of both the model data and the statistical tests to climate impact studies is discussed. 相似文献