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1.
The subseasonal variability and predictability of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) is evaluated using a full set of hindcasts generated from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.2 (BCC_AGCM2.2). It is shown that the predictability of the monthly mean AO/NAO index varies seasonally, with the highest predictability during winter (December–March) and the lowest during autumn (August–November), with respect to both observations and BCC_AGCM2.2 results. As compared with the persistence prediction skill of observations, the model skillfully predicts the monthly mean AO/NAO index with a one-pentad lead time during all winter months, and with a lead time of up to two pentads in December and January. During winter, BCC_AGCM2.2 exhibits an acceptable skill in predicting the daily AO/NAO index of ∼9 days, which is higher than the persistence prediction skill of observations of ∼4 days. Further analysis suggests that improvements in the simulation of storm track activity, synoptic eddy feedback, and troposphere–stratosphere coupling in the Northern Hemisphere could help to improve the prediction skill of subseasonal AO/NAO variability by BCC_AGCM2.2 during winter. In particular, BCC_AGCM2.2 underestimates storm track activity intensity but overestimates troposphere–stratosphere coupling, as compared with observations, thus providing a clue to further improvements in model performance. 相似文献
2.
《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2007,43(1-4):107-126
Rainfall characteristics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are analyzed primarily using tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR), TRMM microwave imager (TMI) and lighting imaging sensor (LIS) data. Latent heating structure is also examined using latent heating data estimated with the spectral latent heating (SLH) algorithm.The zonal structure, time evolution, and characteristic stages of the MJO precipitation system are described. Stratiform rain fraction increases with the cloud activity, and the amplitude of stratiform rain variation associated with the MJO is larger than that of convective rain by a factor of 1.7. Maximum peaks of both convective rain and stratiform rain precede the minimum peak of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomaly which is often used as a proxy for the MJO convection. Stratiform rain remains longer than convective rain until ∼4000 km behind the peak of the mature phase. The stratiform rain contribution results in the top-heavy heating profile of the MJO.Associated with the MJO, there are tri-pole convective rain top heights (RTH) at 10–11, ∼7 and ∼3 km, corresponding to the dominance of afternoon showers, organized systems, and shallow convections, respectively. The stratiform rain is basically organized with convective rain, having similar but slightly lower RTH and slightly lags the convective rain maximum. It is notable that relatively moderate (∼7 km) RTH is dominant in the mature phase of the MJO, while very tall rainfall with RTH over 10 km and lightning frequency increase in the suppressed phase. The rain-yield-per flash (RPF) varies about 20–100% of the mean value of ∼2–10 × 109 kg fl−1 over the tropical warm ocean and that of ∼2–5 × 109 kg fl−1 over the equatorial Islands, between the convectively suppressed phase and the active phase of MJO, in the manner that RPF is smaller in the suppressed phase and larger in the active phase. 相似文献
3.
热带大气低频振荡 (MJO) 和北半球夏季季节内振荡 (BSISO) 对全球范围天气气候事件有重要影响,是次季节-季节 (S2S) 预报最主要的可预报性来源之一。国家气候中心 (BCC) 基于我国完全自主的T639全球分析场数据、风云三号气象卫星射出长波辐射 (OLR) 资料以及BCC第2代大气环流模式系统的实时预报,发展了MJO实时监测预测一体化业务技术,建立了ISV/MJO监测预测业务系统 (IMPRESS1.0),已投入实时业务运行,在全国气象业务系统得到应用。该文着重介绍该系统提供的MJO和BSISO指数监测预测数据和图形产品,并描述了这些业务产品在2015年对MJO典型个例的实时监测预测应用情况。监测分析和预报检验表明,基于我国自主资料的监测结果能够较为准确地表征MJO和BSISO指数的振荡和演变过程,该系统对MJO和BSISO事件分别至少具备16 d和10 d左右的预报技巧。因此,基于IMPRESS1.0的MJO/BSISO监测预测一体化业务产品可为制作延伸期预报提供重要的参考依据。 相似文献
4.
热带大气季节内振荡 (Madden-Julian oscillation,MJO) 是次季节-季节时间尺度气候变率的支配模态。它不仅对低纬度地区天气气候产生重要影响,还能够通过经向传播和激发大气遥相关波列对中高纬度地区产生影响,是延伸期尺度最重要的可预报性来源。因此,MJO预报是次季节-季节气候预测中极为重要的部分,近年来受到国际学术界广泛关注。该文回顾了MJO预报发展历史,概述了当前国际上主要科研业务机构的MJO预报发展现状。目前基于统计方法和气候模式的MJO预报研究取得了较大进展,特别是多个耦合气候模式和一种基于时空投影方法的统计模型均能够显著提升MJO预报技巧 (有效预报可达20 d以上)。该文还介绍了中国气象局国家气候中心在MJO预报技术发展和业务系统研制方面的新进展,当前基于第2代大气环流模式的MJO业务预报填补了国内空白,技巧为16~17 d,而耦合气候模式试验的技巧已达到约20 d。总体来看,利用耦合模式预报MJO是未来发展的主要方向,其中,面向MJO的模式初始化和集合预报新方法研究将是关注重点。 相似文献
5.
A new methodology is proposed to estimate the strength of the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA), using the gridded sea level pressure (SLP) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis data. The top quartile (1017.3 hPa) of the SLP data was found a reasonable criterion to delimit the SAA area. Consequently, we defined the SAA area as the quadrangle containing 80% of the observations with pressure >1017.3 hPa. In this quadrangle, an area weighted pressure gradient (AWPG) was computed for the whole area and for the north–south and west–east halves. When compared with maximum pressure, the AWPG showed a better correlation with the significant wave height (SWH) and wind speed (WS) derived from altimetry. The mean value of the AWPG was 8 × 10−4 Pa/m, with representative values of 9.1 × 10−4 Pa/m and 7.4 × 10−4 Pa/m for austral winter and summer, respectively. The phase difference between the monthly AWPG in the north and south sub-quadrangles accounts for the evolution of the spatial pattern of the anticyclone throughout a year. This quantitative approach proved to be a useful estimate of the strength of South Atlantic Anticyclone. Further improvements of this approach are discussed. 相似文献
6.
Harun A. Rashid Harry H. Hendon Matthew C. Wheeler Oscar Alves 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(3-4):649-661
Predictions of the Madden?CJulian oscillation (MJO) are assessed using a 10-member ensemble of hindcasts from POAMA, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled ocean?Catmosphere seasonal prediction system. The ensemble of hindcasts was initialised from observed atmosphere and ocean initial conditions on the first of each month during 1980?C2006. The MJO is diagnosed using the Wheeler-Hendon Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index, which involves projection of daily data onto the leading pair of eigenmodes from an analysis of zonal winds at 200 and 850?hPa and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) averaged about the equator. Forecasts of the two component (RMM1 and RMM2) index are quantitatively compared with observed behaviour derived from NCEP reanalyses and satellite OLR using the bivariate correlation skill, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and measures of the MJO amplitude and phase error. Comparison is also made with a simple vector autoregressive (VAR) prediction model of RMM as a benchmark. Using the full hindcast set, we find that the MJO can be predicted with the POAMA ensemble out to about 21?days as measured by the bivariate correlation exceeding 0.5 and the bivariate RMSE remaining below ~1.4 (which is the value for a climatological forecast). The VAR model, by comparison, drops to a correlation of 0.5 by about 12?days. The prediction limit from POAMA increases by less than 2?days for times when the MJO has large initial amplitude, and has little sensitivity to the initial phase of the MJO. The VAR model, on the other hand, shows a somewhat larger increase in skill for times of strong MJO variability and has greater sensitivity to initial phase, with lower skill for times when MJO convection is developing in the Indian Ocean. The sensitivity to season is, however, greater for POAMA, with maximum skill occurring in the December?CJanuary?CFebruary season and minimum skill in June?CJuly?CAugust. Examination of the MJO amplitudes shows that individual POAMA members have slightly above observed amplitude after a spin-up of about 10?days, whereas examination of the MJO phase error reveals that the model has a consistent tendency to propagate the MJO slightly slower than observed. Finally, an estimate of potential predictability of the MJO in POAMA hindcasts suggests that actual MJO prediction skill may be further improved through continued development of the dynamical prediction system. 相似文献
7.
We analyzed a 20-year time series (January 1st, 1993 through December 31st, 2012) of Loop Current (LC) surface area derived from satellite altimetry in the eastern Gulf of Mexico to estimate kinematical metrics of this potent flow. On average the LC intrudes to its maximum northward position about 216 ± 126 days after the previous eddy separation; and ∼30 ± 31 days later sheds a large anticyclonic eddy. When the northern extent of the LC intrusion following the previous eddy separation is greater than 27°N, the current retreats very quickly until it sheds another eddy with the entire separation process occurring on the order of 30 days. To first order the change in areal extent of the LC during intrusion into the Gulf occurs at an average rate of 225 km2 day−1, which corresponds to an intrusion velocity of 1.7 cm s−1 of the LC front, and adds Caribbean water to the Gulf at a rate of 2.6 ± 0.7 Sv. 相似文献
8.
MJO prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Wanqiu Wang Meng-Pai Hung Scott J. Weaver Arun Kumar Xiouhua Fu 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(9-10):2509-2520
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the primary mode of tropical intraseasonal climate variability and has significant modulation of global climate variations and attendant societal impacts. Advancing prediction of the MJO using state of the art observational data and modeling systems is thus a necessary goal for improving global intraseasonal climate prediction. MJO prediction is assessed in the NOAA Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) based on its hindcasts initialized daily for 1999–2010. The analysis focuses on MJO indices taken as the principal components of the two leading EOFs of combined 15°S–15°N average of 200-hPa zonal wind, 850-hPa zonal wind and outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere. The CFSv2 has useful MJO prediction skill out to 20 days at which the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) drops to 0.5 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) increases to the level of the prediction with climatology. The prediction skill also shows a seasonal variation with the lowest ACC during the boreal summer and highest ACC during boreal winter. The prediction skills are evaluated according to the target as well as initial phases. Within the lead time of 10 days the ACC is generally greater than 0.8 and RMSE is less than 1 for all initial and target phases. At longer lead time, the model shows lower skills for predicting enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and from the eastern Pacific to western Indian Ocean. The prediction skills are relatively higher for target phases when enhanced convection is in the central Indian Ocean and the central Pacific. While the MJO prediction skills are improved in CFSv2 compared to its previous version, systematic errors still exist in the CFSv2 in the maintenance and propagation of the MJO including (1) the MJO amplitude in the CFSv2 drops dramatically at the beginning of the prediction and remains weaker than the observed during the target period and (2) the propagation in the CFSv2 is too slow. Reducing these errors will be necessary for further improvement of the MJO prediction. 相似文献
9.
Mixing states of cloud interstitial particles between water-soluble and insoluble materials apparently differ under various cloud-forming conditions. To study the mixing states of cloud interstitial particles, we made observations at Mt. Tateyama, Japan (2300 m a.s.l.) during June 2007 using fog (> 10 μm)-cut inlets. Number concentrations of dried particles (0.3–0.5 μm diameter) selected for less-grown (LG) particles (particles smaller than 0.56 μm diameter at 88% relative humidity) were used to quantify tendencies of the growth characteristics of cloud interstitial particles. Size-segregated soot mass concentrations (< 0.4 and < 1.1 μm) were also measured for cloud interstitial particles. Three samples of cloud interstitial LG particles at 88% RH were investigated for water-soluble and insoluble components using dialysis (extraction) of water-soluble materials with transmission electron microscopy (TEM). For one TEM sample with high fractions of the LG particles and high soot mass concentrations under high precipitation (2–6 mm/h), most particles (0.1–0.5 μm) were found to be water insoluble. More than half of the water-insoluble particles were considered to be soot particles showing chain aggregations of electron-opaque spherules. Regarding the other two TEM samples with low fractions of the LG particles under less intense precipitation (ca. 1 mm/h), most particles were partly water soluble. The scavenging process in the precipitating cloud can change the population of particles left behind, preferentially leaving insoluble particles according to cloud formation conditions. 相似文献
10.
The samples of water-soluble inorganic ions (WSIs), including anions (F?, Cl?, SO42?, NO3?) and cations (NH4+, K+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+) in 8 size-segregated particle matter (PM), were collected using a sampler (with 8 nominal cut-sizes ranged from 0.43 to 9.0 μm) from October 2008 to September 2009 at five sites in both polluted and background regions of a coastal city, Xiamen. The results showed that particulate matters in the fine mode (PM2.1, Dp < 2.1 μm) comprised large part of mass concentrations of aerosols, which accounted for 45.56–51.27%, 40.04–60.81%, 42.02–60.81%, and 40.46–57.07% of the total particulate mass in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The water-soluble ionic species in the fine mode at five sampling sites varied from 15.33 to 33.82 (spring), 14.03 to 28.06 (summer), 33.47 to 72.52 (autumn), and 48.39 to 69.75 μg m? 3 (winter), respectively, which accounted for 57.30 ± 6.51% of the PM2.1 mass concentrations. Secondary pollutants of NH4+, SO42? and NO3? were the dominant contributors of WSIs, which suggested that pollutants from anthropogenic activities, such as SO2, NOx were formed in aerosols by photochemical reactions. The size distributions of Na+, Cl?, SO42? and NO3? were bimodal, peaking at 0.43–0.65 μm and 3.3–5.8 μm. Although some ions, such as NH4+ presented bimodal distributions, the coarse mode was insignificant compared to the fine mode. Ca2+ and Mg2+ exhibited unimodal distributions at all sampling sites, peaking at 2.1–3.3 μm, while K+ having a bimodal distributions with a major peak at 0.43–0.65 μm and a minor one at 3.3–4.7 μm, were used in most of samples. Seasonal and spatial variations in the size-distribution profiles suggested that meteorological conditions (seasonal patterns) and sampling locations (geographical patterns) were the main factors determining the formation of secondary aerosols and characteristics of size distributions for WSIs. 相似文献
11.
This study incorporates observations from Array of Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (ARGO) floats and surface drifters to identify seasonal circulation patterns at the surface, 1000 m, 1500 m, and 2000 m in the northwest Indian Ocean, and quantify velocities associated with them. A skill comparison of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis output was also performed to contribute to the understanding of the circulation dynamics in this region.Subsurface currents were quantified and validated using the ARGO float data. Surface currents were identified using surface drifter data and compared to the subsurface observations to enhance our previous understanding of surface circulations. Quantified Southwest Monsoon surface currents include the Somali Current (vmax = 179.5 cm/s), the East Arabian Current (vmax = 52.3 cm/s), and the Southwest Monsoon Current (vmax = 51.2 cm/s). Northeastward flow along the Somali coast is also observed at 1000 m (vmax = 26.1 cm/s) and 1500 m (vmax = 12.7 cm/s). Currents associated with the Great Whirl are observed at the surface (vmax = 161.4 cm/s) and at 1000 m (vmax = 16.2 cm/s). In contrast to previous studies, both ARGO and surface drifter data show the Great Whirl can form as early as the boreal Spring intermonsoon, lasting until the boreal Fall intermonsoon. The Arabian Sea exhibits eastward/southeastward flow at the surface, 1000 m, 1500 m, and 2000 m. Quantified Northeast Monsoon surface currents include the Somali Current (vmax = 97.3 cm/s), Northeast Monsoon Current (vmax = 30.0 cm/s), and the North Equatorial Current (vmax = 28.5 cm/s). Southwestward flow along the Somali coast extends as deep as 1500 m.Point-by-point vector and scalar correlations of SODA output to ARGO and surface drifter data showed that surface SODA output and surface drifter data generally produced a strong correlation attributed to surface currents strongly controlled by the monsoons, while subsurface correlations of SODA output and ARGO were mostly insignificant due to variability associated with intermonsoonal transitions. SODA output produced overall smaller velocities than both observational datasets. Assimilating ARGO velocities into the SODA reanalysis could improve subsurface velocity assimilation, especially during the boreal fall and spring when ARGO observations suggest that flow is highly variable. 相似文献
12.
Concentrations and flux densities of methane were determined during a Lagrangian study of an advective filament in the permanent upwelling region off western Mauritania. Newly upwelled waters were dominated by the presence of North Atlantic Central Water and surface CH4 concentrations of 2.2 ± 0.3 nmol L−1 were largely in equilibrium with atmospheric values, with surface saturations of 101.7 ± 14%. As the upwelling filament aged and was advected offshore, CH4 enriched South Atlantic Central Water from intermediate depths of 100–350 m was entrained into the surface mixed layer of the filament following intense mixing associated with the shelf break. Surface saturations increased to 198.9 ± 15% and flux densities increased from a mean value over the shelf of 2.0 ± 1.1 μmol m−2 d−1 to a maximum of 22.6 μmol m−2 d−1. Annual CH4 emissions for this persistent filament were estimated at 0.77 ± 0.64 Gg which equates to a maximum of 0.35% of the global oceanic budget. This raises the known outgassing intensity of this area and highlights the importance of advecting filaments from upwelling waters as efficient vehicles for air-sea exchange. 相似文献
13.
Carbon market and climate finance schemes (e.g. the CDM, REDD+ and the Green Climate Fund) are being investigated for their ability to achieve enhanced sustainability outcomes in terrestrial forests, lowland grasslands and marine ecosystems, all which store large amounts of carbon (C). To date however climate policy discourse has largely overlooked the conservation of existing C stored in mountain grasslands and shrublands. These ecosystems provide critical ecological goods and services to humanity yet are increasingly at risk from anthropogenic stressors including agricultural intensification, mining and climate change. The absence of a global estimate for these C stocks is likely to be one reason for their exclusion from climate change policy discussions, both on a political and scientific basis. This represents a missed opportunity in two respects: firstly, by conserving and restoring existing C stocks the impacts of climate change can be lessened; and secondly, carbon finance and climate finance might provide the necessary financial support to address the aforementioned stressors. In this paper we use spatial analysis and estimate there to be between 60.5 Pg C and 82.8 Pg of C contained within biomass and soils of the world's mountain grasslands and shrublands. To put this in perspective, globally tropical Savannas and grasslands, temperate forests and tropical peatlands are estimated to contain 326–330 Pg C, 159–292 Pg C and 88.6 Pg C respectively. Our review of existing empirical studies and of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) national greenhouse accounts suggests that this C is not reliably accounted for in international carbon budgets. Our estimate is the first to provide a global point of reference, useful in developing future research and in climate policy discussions. We conclude by briefly discussing how climate finance might be leveraged to support the sustainable management of these C stocks, and in so doing uphold the other important socioeconomic benefits provided to humanity. 相似文献
14.
In this study, total suspended particles (TSP) and size-segregated atmospheric aerosol samples were measured on Qianliyan Island in the Yellow Sea in spring (April–May), summer (July–August) and fall (October–November) of 2006 and in water (January–February) of 2007. The mass concentration of the TSP varied from 75.6 to 132.0 μg/m3. The average concentration were 9.37 ± 7.56 μg/m3 and 5.32 ± 4.25 μg/m3 for nitrate and ammonium in the TSP, respectively. TSP concentration showed a significant correlation with those of nitrate (n = 27, r = 0.73) and ammonium (n = 27, r = 0.60). The mass-size distribution of atmospheric particles exhibited two modes with an accumulation mode at 0.43–1.1 μm and a coarse mode at 3.3–4.7 μm throughout the sampling months. A bi-modal size distribution of nitrate in concentration occurred in the April–May, October–November and January–February, but a uni-modal size distribution occurred in the August. The uni-modal size distribution of ammonium at 0.43–0.65 μm was observed throughout the sampling months. The average of inorganic nitrogen in mass concentration accounted for 4.0% of the total mass of aerosol particles while ammonium-N was the dominant fraction of TIN (Total Inorganic Nitrogen), contributing to 62–71% of the TIN. 相似文献
15.
In August 2009, Typhoon Morakot caused massive flooding and devastating mudslides in the southern Taiwan triggered by extremely heavy rainfall (2777 mm in 4 days) which occurred during its passage. It was one of the deadliest typhoons that have ever attacked Taiwan in recent years. In this study, numerical simulations are performed for the storm surge and ocean surface waves, together with dynamic meteorological fields such as wind, pressure and precipitation induced by Typhoon Morakot, using an atmosphere–waves–ocean integrated modelling system. The wave-induced dissipation stress from breaking waves, whitecapping and depth-induced wave breaking, is parameterized and included in the wave–current interaction process, in addition to its influence on the storm surge level in shallow water along the coast of Taiwan. The simulated wind and pressure field captures the characteristics of the observed meteorological field. The spatial distribution of the accumulated rainfall within 4 days, from 00:00 UTC 6 August to 00:00 UTC 10 August 2009, shows similar patterns as the observed values. The 4-day accumulated rainfall of 2777 mm at the A-Li Shan mountain weather station for the same period depicted a high correlation with the observed value of 2780 mm/4 days. The effects of wave-induced dissipation stress in the wave–current interaction resulted in increased surge heights on the relatively shallow western coast of Taiwan, where the bottom slope of the bathymetry ranges from mild to moderate. The results also show that wave-breaking has to be considered for accurate storm surge prediction along the east coast of Taiwan over the narrow bank of surf zone with a high horizontal resolution of the model domain. 相似文献
16.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(2):229-249
This article provides a first-cut estimate of the potential impacts of the clean development mechanism (CDM) on electricity generation and carbon emissions in the power sector of non-Annex 1 countries. We construct four illustrative CDM regimes that represent a range of approaches under consideration within the climate community. We examine the impact of these CDM regimes on investments in new generation, under illustrative carbon trading prices of US$ 10 and 100/t C. In the cases that are most conducive to CDM activity, roughly 94% of new generation investments remains identical to the without-CDM situation, with only 6% shifting from higher to lower carbon intensity technologies. We estimate that the CDM would bolster renewable energy generation by as little as 15% at US$ 10/t C, or as much as 300% at US$ 100/t C.A striking finding comes from our examination of the potential magnitude of the “free-rider” problem, i.e. crediting of activities that will occur even in the absence of the CDM. The CDM is intended to be globally carbon-neutral — a project reduces emissions in the host country but generates credits that increase emissions in the investor country. However, to the extent that unwarranted credits are awarded to non-additional projects, the CDM would increase global carbon emissions above the without-CDM emissions level. Under two of the CDM regimes considered, cumulative free-riders credits total 250–600 Mt C through the end of the first budget period in 2012. This represents 10–23% of the likely OECD emissions reduction requirement during the first budget period. Since such a magnitude of free-rider credits from non-additional CDM projects could threaten the environmental integrity of the Kyoto protocol, it is imperative that policy makers devise CDM rules that encourage legitimate projects, while effectively screening out non-additional activities. 相似文献
17.
The study has analyzed the variability and trends in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall and rainy days of four locations over different agro-ecological zones of Bihar, namely Samastipur (zone-I), Madhepura (zone-II), Sabour (zone-IIIA) and Patna (zone-IIIB). The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test was employed for detection of statistical significance and slopes of the trend lines were determined using the method of least square linear fitting. The variability and trends of onset of effective monsoon and length of monsoon period were also analyzed using the same method. The mean annual rainfall varies from 1137 mm at Patna to 1219 mm at Sabour. July is the rainiest month in all the zones followed by August. Maximum increase in annual rainfall was found at Sabour (40.1% of mean/30 years at 95% confidence level) and minimum for Patna (10.1% of mean/30 years). Significant increasing trend of rainfall during July, August and September at rates of 41.9, 83.2, and 112.7% of the mean/30 years, respectively has been noticed at Madhepura. Analysis of rainy days indicates that rainy days increased during winter and annually for all the sites. The mean effective onset of monsoon varies from 18th June at Sabour to 28th June at Patna. The trends in the date of effective onset of monsoon indicate that the date tends to be early in all the sites except Madhepura. But a significant delayed trend in the onset at a rate of 2.8% of the mean/30 years has been observed for Madhepura. The early trend of the effective onset of monsoon and increasing trends of length of monsoon season have been observed for Samastipur, Sabour and Patna. 相似文献
18.
The impact of initialization and perturbation methods on the ensemble prediction of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation was investigated using 20-year hindcast predictions of a coupled general circulation model. The three perturbation methods used in the present study are the lagged-averaged forecast (LAF) method, the breeding method, and the empirical singular vector (ESV) method. Hindcast experiments were performed with a prediction interval of 10 days for extended boreal summer (May–October) seasons over a 20 year period. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) eigenvectors of the initial perturbations depend on the individual perturbation method used. The leading EOF eigenvectors of the LAF perturbations exhibit large variances in the extratropics. Bred vectors with a breeding interval of 3 days represent the local unstable mode moving northward and eastward over the Indian and western Pacific region, and the leading EOF modes of the ESV perturbations represent planetary-scale eastward moving perturbations over the tropics. By combining the three perturbation methods, a multi-perturbation (MP) ensemble prediction system for the intraseasonal time scale was constructed, and the effectiveness of the MP prediction system for the Madden and Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction was examined in the present study. The MJO prediction skills of the individual perturbation methods are all similar; however, the MP‐based prediction has a higher level of correlation skill for predicting the real-time multivariate MJO indices compared to those of the other individual perturbation methods. The predictability of the intraseasonal oscillation is sensitive to the MJO amplitude and to the location of the dominant convective anomaly in the initial state. The improvement in the skill of the MP prediction system is more effective during periods of weak MJO activity. 相似文献
19.
Aerosol retrieval algorithms for the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) have been developed to estimate aerosol and microphysical properties of the atmosphere, which help to address aerosol climatic issues at global scale. However, higher spatial resolution aerosol products for urban areas have not been well-researched mainly due to the difficulty of differentiating aerosols from bright surfaces in urban areas. Here, an aerosol retrieval algorithm using the MODIS 500-m resolution bands is described, to retrieve aerosol properties over Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta region. The rationale of our technique is to first estimate the aerosol reflectances by decomposing the top-of-atmosphere reflectances from surface reflectances and Rayleigh path reflectances. For the determination of surface reflectances, a Minimum Reflectance Technique (MRT) is used, and MRT images are computed for different seasons. For conversion of aerosol reflectance to aerosol optical thickness (AOT), comprehensive Look Up Tables specific to the local region are constructed, which consider aerosol properties and sun-viewing geometry in the radiative transfer calculations. Four local aerosol types, namely coastal urban, polluted urban, dust, and heavy pollution, were derived using cluster analysis on 3 years of AERONET measurements in Hong Kong. The resulting 500 m AOT images were found to be highly correlated with ground measurements from the AERONET (r2 = 0.767) and Microtops II sunphotometers (r2 = 0.760) in Hong Kong. This study further demonstrates the application of the fine resolution AOT images for monitoring inter-urban and intra-urban aerosol distributions and the influence of trans-boundary flows. These applications include characterization of spatial patterns of AOT within the city, and detection of regional biomass burning sources. 相似文献
20.
Below-cloud aerosol scavenging is generally estimated from field measurements using advanced instruments that measure changes in aerosol distributions with respect to rainfall. In this study, we discuss various scavenging mechanisms and scavenging coefficients from past laboratory and field measurements. Scavenging coefficients derived from field measurements (representing natural aerosols scavenging) are two orders higher than that of theoretical ones for smaller particles (Dp < 2 μm). Measured size-resolved scavenging coefficients can be served as a better option to the default scavenging coefficient (e.g. a constant of 10?4 s?1 for all size of aerosols, as used in the CALPUFF model) for representing below-cloud aerosol scavenging. We propose scavenging correction parameter (CR) as an exponential function of size-resolved scavenging coefficients, winds and width in the downwind of the source–receptor system. For a wind speed of 3 m s?1, CR decrease with the width in the downwind for particles of diameters Dp < 0.1 μm but CR does not vary much for particles in the accumulation mode (0.1 < Dp < 2 μm). For a typical urban aerosol distribution, assuming 3 m s?1 air-flow in the source–receptor system, 10 km downwind width, 2.84 mm h?1 of rainfall and using aerosol size dependent scavenging coefficients in the CR, scavenging of aerosols is found to be 16% in number and 24% in volume of total aerosols. Using the default scavenging coefficient (10?4 s?1) in the CALPUFF model, it is found to be 64% in both number and volume of total aerosols. 相似文献