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1.
利用2012—2018年鸭梨花芽发育实景观测照片,精准判定每个鸭梨花芽发育物候期节点发生时间,以此为依据统计鸭梨花芽每个发育物候期的气象要素数据,以物候期为单位分析气象影响因子对花芽发育过程的影响。研究表明:温度在鸭梨花芽发育各阶段起主导作用,筛选出鸭梨花芽萌发到始花、开绽到始花、露蕾到始花3个时段日平均气温≥0℃活动积温和≥3℃有效积温,作为制作鸭梨始花期预报的积温指标计算鸭梨开花日期,得到"积温对比预报法";经2016—2018年应用检验:预报时效10~12d时预报结果与鸭梨开花实况误差在1~2d以内,预报时效7d时预报结果与鸭梨开花实况完全吻合。本研究克服了传统植物花期预报研究因花前物候资料匮乏、不能进行花前发育期分析的缺陷,并把"中长期天气预报产品"引入了花期预报方法的使用,为植物花期预报研究方法提供了新思路。  相似文献   

2.
白水苹果始花期预测模型研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
利用2001—2015年白水站气象数据与苹果始花期物候数据,采用相关分析,筛选与始花期相关较高气象因子;利用SPSS20.0软件进行逐步回归,得到白水苹果始花期预测模型。依据模型回代结果,对始花前一周天气实况进行历史普查,得出预报值订正方法。通过验证,预测模型和订正方法在近3年业务应用中准确率较高。  相似文献   

3.
利用2009—2018年奉贤黄桃休眠—花期各物候期、同期气象要素及1980—2018年黄桃花期逐日日平均、日最小相对湿度等资料,用对比及数理统计方法对2016年影响黄桃开花坐果的主要气象致灾因子、39年花期相对湿度变化特征及其影响进行分析。结果表明:2016年黄桃开花始期—开花盛期遭遇持续6 d日最小相对湿度小于等于30%的低湿天气,每天09:00—20:00各整点相对湿度的平均值小于等于50%,导致当年坐果大幅偏少。20世纪80年代以来,黄桃花期平均相对湿度、平均最小相对湿度均呈下降趋势,两者突变年份均为2000年,且3月下旬及4月上旬低湿天气出现概率高,提升了黄桃花期遭遇低湿致灾的风险。2009—2018年开花始期与5 d滑动平均气温大于等于10 ℃首日(简称10 ℃首日)呈显著性正相关。建立基于10 ℃首日的黄桃开花始期最小二乘偏回归方程,拟合效果较好,为协同应对低湿天气提供预测服务。  相似文献   

4.
每个自然物候的出现,既反映着当时各个气象要素所达到的水平,也反映了前一时期各气象要素综合影响的积累量。因为自然物候的周期变化是由气候的周期变化所引起的,所以从物候的变化规律,可以窥见到气候本身的变化,即可以预报年季的冷暖、也可以预报物候期所出现的时间。 本文是在整理多年树木物候——花期的基础上,结合本站气象资料,确定区分春季冷、暖年型的指标,再分型统计各年春季气温资料,用作春季自然物候期——树木花期及天气过程预报,在近几年实际应用中效果较好。  相似文献   

5.
鸭梨初花期预报模式的研究   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
根据物候资料及春季气候特点,利用榆树初花期与鸭梨初花期期间≥0℃的积温,预报鸭梨初花期;根据花前生育期特点,利用逐步回归的方法,对开花前的29种气象要素进行回归筛选,建立鸭梨初花期统计预报模式。  相似文献   

6.
为了研究气象要素对雪梨始花期的影响,并对雪梨始花期做出准确预报,利用2008—2017年金川县雪梨始花期物候资料和地面气象观测资料,对影响雪梨始花期的气象因子进行分析。结果显示:气温影响显著,日照次之,降水微弱;气温对雪梨始花期显著影响时段主要体现在冬末2月,2月平均气温≥10℃的天数和2月下旬平均气温对雪梨始花期早晚起主导作用,2月≥10℃的天数越多,2月下旬平均气温越高,雪梨始花期越早,反之相对较晚。应用SPSS软件,采用逐步回归分析法建立了雪梨始花期预测模型,模型拟合效果较好。所建模型预报准确率能满足业务要求,及时为政府和旅游部门提供准确的始花期预报。  相似文献   

7.
基于北京市丰台区气象站2009—2018年地面观测资料和2020、2021年3月丰台区预报资料,配合气温精细化订正,应用SW物候模型,对2020年、2021年北京丰台区北宫森林公园、千灵山风景区山桃花始花期进行了预测试验。试验结果表明:提前10 d预测的结果和自然条件下的实况值偏差为1~2 d,提前一周左右可较为准确地预测山桃花始花期。结合气象因子对前期气温预报值进行精细化订正,可提高SW物候模型用于观赏植物观赏期预测的适用性,得到较为准确的花期预测值,并可在花期观赏相关的旅游气象服务业务中进行推广应用。  相似文献   

8.
石家庄春季自然物候对气候变化的响应研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
分析了石家庄1965-2007年杨絮始落、鸭梨始花和刺槐盛花3种植物物候期的变化特征以及对气候的响应规律。结果表明:(1)石家庄春季物候期普遍提早,早春的物候期提前天数多,晚春物候期提早天数少。石家庄春季物候现象普遍存在着2~3年的周期。(2)通过计算石家庄春季物候与气温、日照和降水量的相关关系,发现与气温的关系最好,与降水日数表现出弱的相关性,与日照关系不明显,说明气温是影响石家座春季物候的主导气象因子,GDD是衡量植物热量供应的较好指标,而日照对物候期影响表现出不同物种和不同物候现象间的差异性特征。(3)石家庄春季物候期与ENSO事件也表现出一定的关系,在暖事件年以物候期偏早为主,在冷事件年无明显早晚趋势。  相似文献   

9.
利用1963~1988年中国木本草本植物物候观测资料,运用趋势分析和相关分析方法,研究了26年中国20个物候站点植物始展叶期、始花期、始落叶(黄枯)期物候变化特征及其对降水变化的响应。结果表明:1963~1988年我国植物始展叶期、始花期、始落叶(黄枯)期均以推迟趋势为主;春季始展叶期、始花期,东北、华北以提前趋势为主,其他各区以推迟趋势为主;秋季始落叶(黄枯)期华北以提前趋势为主,其他各区以推迟趋势为主;1980年前后的物候期变化与1963~1988年的变化相同;春季物候期平均值差异多在-3~6天,秋季物候期平均值差异多在-10~10天;我国植物的始展叶期、始花期、始落叶(黄枯)期对于之前月份的累积降水量有不同程度的响应,物候期对该物候期前1月至前3月的累积降水量响应最为明显;我国春季物候期与降水量以正相关为主,秋季物候期与降水量则以负相关为主。   相似文献   

10.
根据中国20个观测站点的木本、草本植物物候资料,结合气温、降水资料,预测了1989~2099年植物始展叶期、始花期物候,结果表明:未来我国气温、降水、季节开始时间变化,对我国植物物候期有明显的影响,其中气温对物候期的作用最为显著。春季气温升高,春季物候期提前,未来全国5区植物始展叶期、始花期均以显著的提前趋势为主,植物...  相似文献   

11.
Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.  相似文献   

12.
The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.  相似文献   

13.
The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.  相似文献   

14.
正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.  相似文献   

15.
Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.  相似文献   

16.
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.  相似文献   

17.
Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.  相似文献   

18.
Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.  相似文献   

19.
The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.  相似文献   

20.
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on  相似文献   

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