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1.
利用NOAA最优插值逐日海表温度资料和AVISO中心的海表高度异常资料,分析了黑潮延伸体区域的海表温度锋的时空变化特征以及导致其年代际变化可能的原因。结果表明,气候平均态的黑潮延伸体区域海表温度锋位于黑潮延伸体区域北部边缘,在143 °E和150 °E附近存在两个弯曲,SST水平梯度最大值出现在142 °E附近,强度超过4.5 ℃/(100 km),其后强度自西向东逐渐递减,在149 °E附近又出现一个较弱的大值中心,在141~153 °E范围内,海表温度锋位置的平均值为36.25 °N,强度的平均值为3.22 ℃/(100 km)。黑潮延伸体区域的海表温度锋南北位置的季节变化很弱,而其强度的季节变化非常显著。相较于较弱的季节变化,海表温度锋位置的年际和年代际的低频变化则要显著得多,其南北变化跨度超过2 °。海表温度锋强度的年际和年代际的低频变化也较强,超过4.5 ℃/(100 km)。黑潮延伸体区域的海表温度锋的变化与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)以及北太平洋涡旋振荡(NPGO)存在显著的相关关系,NPGO和PDO在中东太平洋区域会强迫产生海表高度异常,随后向西传播,在约3年后到达黑潮延伸体区域,使该区域流场发生变化产生海洋热平流异常,最终导致海表温度锋强度发生变化。   相似文献   

2.
冬季黑潮延伸体区域海表温度锋对北太平洋风暴轴的影响   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
利用NOAA最优插值逐日海表温度资料和NCEP/NCAR的逐日大气再分析资料,分析了冬季黑潮延伸体区域海表温度锋的变化及其对北太平洋风暴轴的影响。结果表明,冬季黑潮延伸体区域海表温度锋强度和纬度位置既存在年际变化,也存在年代际变化,且强度和位置的变化是相互独立的。冬季黑潮延伸体区域海表温度锋强度的年际变化对北太平洋风暴轴没有显著的影响,而其年代际变化则对北太平洋风暴轴具有非常显著的影响,当冬季海表温度锋偏强时,大气斜压性在鄂霍次克海及阿拉斯加附近区域上空增强,而在海表温度锋下游至东太平洋区域上空显著减弱,平均有效位能向涡动有效位能的斜压能量转换在45°N以北的太平洋区域上空有所增多,而在30°-45°N的太平洋区域上空有所减少,涡动有效位能向涡动动能的斜压能量转换在35°N以北的西太平洋区域以及45°N以北的东太平洋区域都显著增加,而仅在其南部边缘存在东西带状的减弱区域,导致40°N以北海区北太平洋风暴轴增强,40°N以南海区北太平洋风暴轴减弱,冬季海表温度锋偏弱时则有与之相反的结果。冬季黑潮延伸体区域海表温度锋纬度位置的变化对北太平洋风暴轴也存在较显著的影响,当海表温度锋位置偏北时,在其下游45°N以南的太平洋区域上空大气斜压性减弱,45°N以南的中东太平洋区域上空区域平均有效位能向涡动有效位能、以及涡动有效位能向涡动动能的斜压能量转换都减少;而在45°N以北的太平洋区域上空大气斜压性增强,在阿拉斯加湾附近上空尤其显著,在黑潮延伸体区域附近以及45°N以北的中东太平洋上空平均有效位能向涡动有效位能、以及涡动有效位能向涡动动能的斜压能量转换都显著增加,导致北太平洋风暴轴在其气候平均态轴线两侧呈现北正南负的偶极子形态;海表温度锋位置偏南时则有与之相反的结果。冬季黑潮延伸体区域海表温度锋强度和位置的变化均对北太平洋风暴轴具有显著的影响,其具体的物理机制还需要进一步的研究。   相似文献   

3.
曾刚  孙照渤  林朝晖 《大气科学》2010,34(2):307-322
采用1950~2000年逐月观测的不同海域(全球、热带外、热带、热带印度洋-太平洋、热带印度洋及热带太平洋) 海表温度分别驱动NCAR CAM3全球大气环流模式, 进行了多组长时间积分试验, 对比观测资料, 讨论了这些海域海表温度异常 (SSTA) 对西北太平洋副热带高压年代际变化的影响。结果表明: 全球、 热带、 热带印度洋-太平洋和热带印度洋海表温度变化均对夏季西北太平洋副热带高压的年代际变化有重要作用, 即在这些海域的海表温度变化影响下, 西北太平洋副热带高压均在1970年代中后期发生了年代际变化, 其后副高面积增大、 强度增强、 位置偏西、 偏南, 这与观测结果较一致; 热带太平洋海表温度变化对夏季西北太平洋副热带高压的年代际变化也有重要作用, 在其作用下, 夏季西北太平洋副热带高压的强度、 面积在1960年代后期发生年代际变化, 南界在1970年代中后期发生年代际变化, 这些时段以后副高强度增强、 面积增大、 偏南; 热带印度洋海表温度驱动模拟的西北太平洋副热带高压变化比热带太平洋海表温度驱动模拟的副高更接近于观测结果, 且年代际变化更显著, 其差异的可能原因在于两区海表温度在1970年代中后期以后的年代际变化能在孟加拉湾〖CD*2〗中国东南沿海区域强迫产生的异常环流不同, 前者强迫产生出反气旋性环流异常, 有利于副高的增强、 面积增大和西伸, 而后者强迫产生出气旋性环流异常, 不利于副高的西伸; 热带太平洋和热带印度洋海表温度在1970年代中后期的冷、 暖年代际背景变化对夏季西北太平洋副热带高压年代际变化有重要作用; 热带外海表温度变化对西北太平洋副热带高压年代际变化作用较小。  相似文献   

4.
陈红 《大气科学》2019,43(4):783-795
利用第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)40个模式的模拟资料和分类集合的方法,评估了耦合模式对20世纪太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)特征的模拟能力。结果表明,CMIP5多数模式对PDO周期有着较好的刻画能力,能模拟出PDO的年代际变化周期。模式对PDO模态空间特征的模拟能力存在较大差异,小部分模式模拟效果较差。进一步的分析表明,对PDO模态模拟较好的第1类模式,能较好地再现热带太平洋与北太平洋海表温度异常(SSTA)年代际变化间的关系,而且热带太平洋SSTA通过大气遥相关影响北太平样海表温度的过程也模拟的较成功。对PDO模态模拟差的模式,不能合理模拟出热带太平洋SSTA对北太平洋海表温度影响的遥相关过程。以上研究也证实了热带太平洋地区海表温度的年代际变率对北太平洋海表温度年代际变率的重要影响,热带太平洋SSTA对北太平洋SSTA的影响是通过大气遥相关实现的。利用CMIP5中等排放情景模拟结果,分析了第1类模式预估的北太平洋年代际变率的特征,发现21世纪北太平洋年代际变率的主要模态为一致的正异常分布且呈现明显的上升趋势,第二模态则表现为类似于20世纪典型PDO的马蹄型SSTA分布。  相似文献   

5.
耦合模式热带太平洋云—气候反馈模拟误差评估   总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0  
李志强  俞永强 《大气科学》2011,35(3):457-472
云—气候反馈是热带海气相互作用的重要过程, 同时也是气候模拟的难点。本文利用IPCC AR4提供的耦合模式20世纪模拟试验结果和观测资料, 通过滤波和经验正交展开 (EOF) 的方法将热带太平洋海表温度的年际变化和年代际变化信号分别提取出来, 然后再分别计算观测和模式在年际和年代际时间尺度上云—辐射和热通量反馈特征, 发现在上述两个时间尺度上, 耦合模式模拟的云—辐射和热通量的反馈都要比观测和再分析资料的偏弱。反馈偏弱的可能原因是模式中热带大气对流和云对海表温度变化的敏感性比真实大气要偏弱。值得注意的是, 尽管耦合模式热带太平洋年代际热力反馈偏弱, 但是耦合模式模拟的热带太平洋南北纬10°之间海表温度的年代际增温趋势与观测相当。进一步分析表明, 只用年代际热力反馈来解释热带太平洋的气候变化是不够的, 还必须考虑动力反馈对于海表温度变化的调节作用。  相似文献   

6.
黄艳艳  王会军 《气象学报》2020,78(2):177-186
太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)是北太平洋海表温度年代际变率的主模态。由于太平洋年代际振荡对区域乃至全球气候的显著影响,其合理的预测结果可以带来多方面收益。然而,针对太平洋年代际振荡及其有关的海表温度的年代际预测,目前气候模式的预测水平还十分有限,因此,提出了一个新的增量方法。一系列的验证结果表明,增量方法可以有效预测太平洋年代际振荡,其中包括成功预测出其振荡的年代际转折。增量方法的预测过程主要包括3个步骤:(1)采用5 a滑动平均得到太平洋年代际振荡的年代际变率;(2)利用3 a增量形式的预测因子构建预测模型,预测3 a增量的太平洋年代际振荡(DI_PDO);(3)将预测得到的DI_PDO加上3 a前的观测PDO,得到最后预测的PDO。增量方法亦可以应用到气候系统年代际内部变率的其他模态(如:北大西洋年代际振荡)和其他气候变量的年代际预测(如:海表温度)。   相似文献   

7.
利用1981—2002年美国国家气象中心(National Meteorological Center,NMC)逐日海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、10 m高处风场(V)及逐月混合层厚度(mixed layer depth,mld)资料,研究了太平洋区域海表温度季内振荡的气候及异常特征,重点探讨了北太平洋区域海表温度季内振荡的维持机制。研究发现,太平洋区域海表温度存在3个季内振荡强度气候高值区,即热带东太平洋(终年存在)、西北太平洋(北半球春、夏、秋存在)、西南太平洋(南半球夏季前后存在),它们出现在气候混合层厚度最小的区域和季节。海表温度季内振荡强度年际异常与混合层厚度年际异常存在显著负相关,在物理上,这种关系比它与海表温度异常的关系更直接。北太平洋区域5—9月地面风场与海表温度季节内振荡的基本耦合模态揭示出以漂流和感热输送为动力的一个负反馈过程,它存在于薄混合层海区,这是该海区强海表温度季内振荡的维持机制。  相似文献   

8.
刘明洋  李崇银  谭言科  俞兆文 《气象》2017,43(4):443-449
利用NOAA最优插值逐日海表温度(SST)资料和NCEP/NCAR的逐日大气再分析资料,本文分析了黑潮延伸体区域海表温度锋的变化对北太平洋风暴轴的影响。结果表明,黑潮延伸体区域海表温度锋位置的季节变化很弱,而其强度的变化则非常显著,北太平洋风暴轴强度与海表温度锋强度具有一致的协同变化。冬季黑潮延伸体区域海表温度锋强度最强,增强了其上空大气的斜压性,从平均有效位能向涡动有效位能的斜压能量转换以及从涡动有效位能向涡动动能的斜压能量转换均在黑潮延伸体区域显著增加,斜压涡旋在此区域生成更加频繁,在随西风向下游运动过程中不断从背景平均流中获得能量,从而导致北太平洋风暴轴增强,且将其中心轴线固定在黑潮延伸体区域上空,而夏季黑潮延伸体区域海表温度锋强度非常弱,其上空大气斜压性减弱,从平均有效位能向涡动有效位能的斜压能量转换以及从涡动有效位能向涡动动能的斜压能量转换均显著减少,斜压涡旋在此区域生成减少,导致北太平洋风暴轴减弱,且中心移至太平洋中部,位置偏北。  相似文献   

9.
基于中国东部地区(30°—40°N,105°E以东)19个代表站1470—2019年旱涝等级序列、古气候代用资料定量重建的北太平洋海表温度年代际振荡指数以及Nino3.4指数,通过经验正交函数分解、小波分析和集合经验模态分解方法分析了中国东部旱涝年代际变化特征及其与太平洋海温的关系。结果表明,(1)1470年以来中国东部旱涝变化的主模态为全区一致型(方差贡献率为25.2%),变率中心主要位于黄河中下游,其时间系数的小波分析和集合经验模态分解揭示出全区旱涝存在10—30 a的准周期;该模态长期趋势揭示17—18世纪中国东部整体偏涝,而19世纪以后出现干旱化趋势。(2)寒冷背景下中国东部旱涝一致变化更明显,在17世纪前、中期和19世纪中、后期的小冰期寒冷期全区一致型模态的方差贡献率为35%—40%,且这两个时段10—30 a的年代际变化信号尤为显著;而旱涝的变率中心则表现出冷期偏北,暖期偏南或偏西的特征。(3)中国东部旱涝的年代际变化与北太平洋和赤道中东太平洋海表温度异常有关,表现为偏涝(旱)气候对应于北太平洋海表温度年代际振荡的冷(暖)相位,以及年代际尺度上的冬季Nino3.4区海表温度的异常偏低(高);在小冰期的寒冷期,旱涝的年代际变化可能与Nino3.4区海表温度异常关系更密切。   相似文献   

10.
采用1950-2000年逐月观测的不同海域(全球、热带外、热带、热带印度洋-太平洋、热带印度洋及热带太平洋)海表温度分别驱动NCAR CAM3全球大气环流模式,进行了多组长时间积分试验,对比ERA-40和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,讨论了这些海域海表温度异常对东亚夏季风年代际变化的影响。数值试验结果表明:全球、热带、热带印度洋-太平洋和热带太平洋海表温度变化对东亚夏季风的年代际变化具有重要作用,均模拟出了东亚夏季风在20世纪70年代中后期发生的年代际减弱现象,以及强、弱夏季风年代夏季大气环流异常分布的显著不同,这与观测结果较一致,表明热带太平洋是影响东亚夏季风此次年代际变化的关键海区;利用热带印度洋海表温度驱动模式模拟出的东亚夏季风在20世纪70年代中后期发生年代际增强现象,即当热带印度洋海表温度年代际偏暖(冷)时,东亚夏季风年代际增强(减弱),与热带太平洋海表温度变化对东亚夏季风年代际变化的影响相反;热带太平洋海表温度年代际背景的变化对东亚夏季风在20世纪70年代中后期的年代际减弱有重要作用。  相似文献   

11.
The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.  相似文献   

12.
Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.  相似文献   

13.
The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.  相似文献   

14.
正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.  相似文献   

15.
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on  相似文献   

16.
Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.  相似文献   

17.
The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.  相似文献   

18.
Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.  相似文献   

19.
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.  相似文献   

20.
Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.  相似文献   

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