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1.
蒸发—风反馈机制的进一步研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
对蒸发-风反馈的作用进行了简单动力学研究。结果表明,蒸发-风反馈不能像波动-CISK那样改变热带大气波动的性质,不可能单独成为激发热带大气内振荡的动力学机制。在积云对流加热的蒸发-风反馈的共同作用下,CISK-Kelvin波和CISK-Rossby波可以不稳定发展,共同作用比单独和积云对流加热反馈作用能更全面合理地解释热带大气内振荡的活动。  相似文献   

2.
将波动-CISK(积云对流加热反馈)、海-气相互作用和蒸发-风反馈都引入一个简单理论模式,研究了他们在驱动热带大气季节内振荡(ISO)中的作用。其结果表明:波动-CISK在减慢激发波的位相速度以接近观测到的热带ISO的移速过程中起主要作用;而蒸发-风反馈的主要作用是使激发波不稳定;海-气相互作用在减慢激发波的移速方面也有一定作用。因此,波动-CISK和蒸发-风反馈可认为是热带ISO的主要动力学机制。本研究还表明,由于蒸发-风反馈和海-气相互作用的影响,激发波是一种频散波,这种频散性可以更好地解释热带大气中ISO的活动特征。  相似文献   

3.
热带大气季节内振荡的进一步分析   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
利用ECMWF的格点资料对热带大气季节内振荡作了进一步分析研究,表明热带大气季节内振荡既有Kelvin波型扰动,也有Rossby波型扰动;影响热带大气季节内振荡移动的主要因素有扰动波型和积云对流活动的异常;伴随ElNino事件的发生,热带大气季节内振荡的动能急剧减小,而准定常扰动动能急剧增大,既反映了热带大气季节内振荡对ElNino的激发作用,也说明了在ElNino期间热带大气季节内振荡偏弱的原因。  相似文献   

4.
CISK、蒸发-风反馈机制和热带大气30-60天振荡   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1  
赵强  刘式适 《气象学报》1996,54(4):417-426
建立一个包含CISK机制和蒸发-风反馈机制(Evaporation-WindFeedbackMechanism,简写为:EWFM)的热带大气运动的无耗散、线性斜压半地转模式,引入反映CISK的无量纲凝结潜热参数η和反映EWFM的无量纲参数α,并求得模式系统的解析解。动力学分析和模式大气的计算结果进一步说明了CISK和EWFM的共同作用是激发和驱动热带大气低频振荡的重要物理过程。  相似文献   

5.
应用含有非绝热因子的正压模式方程组,着重分析了对流凝结加热、蒸发-风反馈和CISK机制等非绝热因子对低纬Rossby波和Kelvin波的影响。既获得了圆频率的表达式,又分析了波的周期与稳定性。结果表明:非绝热因子的存在不但扩大了绝热波的周期,而且改变了波的稳定性。因此,可以认为:所谓季节内振荡(30—60天的周期振荡)等低频振荡实际上是一类非绝热波,这类非绝热波是引起中长期天气变化及短期气候演变的重要因素。  相似文献   

6.
热带大气的CISK-Rossby波和30-50天振荡   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
蒋国荣 《气象学报》1996,54(6):745-752
利用斜压准地转滤波方法,通过引入一个反映CISK机制的无量纲凝结潜热参数η(Z),建立了描述热带大气的CISK-Rossby波模式,并求得了该模式的解析解。理论研究表明,考虑CISK机制的CISK-Rossby波与经典的Rossby波有明显差别,它可较好地解释热带大气30—50d振荡现象。  相似文献   

7.
赤道以外热带大气中30—50天振荡的一个动力学研究   总被引:11,自引:6,他引:11  
李崇银 《大气科学》1990,14(1):83-92
本文的动力学分析和模式大气的计算结果表明,在积云对流加热的反馈作用下,热带大气可以产生一种CISK-Rossby型波动。这种波与经典的热带Rossby波不同,它既可以向西也能向东移动,而且在热带大气通常的加热情况下其相速度同热带30—50天振荡的活动相一致。同时,CISK-Rossby型波动具有频散特性,其能量频散可以说明30—50天大气振荡的二维Rossby波列特征。因此可以认为,CISK-Rossby型波动是赤道以外热带大气30—50天振荡的主要激发和驱动机制。  相似文献   

8.
基于斜压准地转模式的动力学分析,讨论了CISK-Rossby波产生、传播的动机机理和不同的波结构及势力强迫对热带大气30~50天振荡传播的制约和影响,解释了30~50天振荡的一些重要传播特性,特别是对30~50天振荡的经向传播机理和垂直“斜压”结构等问题作了较为细致的探讨,提出了一些新的见解和观点。  相似文献   

9.
热带大气季节内振荡激发El Nino的机制   总被引:12,自引:1,他引:11       下载免费PDF全文
资料分析了表明,热带大气季节内振荡同El Nino发生有密切的关系。在El Nino事件发生之前,热带大气(尤其是赤道西太平洋地区)季节内振荡异常加强;伴随着El Nino的发生,热带大气季节内振荡动能明显增加。简单海-气耦合模式的分析表明,只有在年陵时间尺度大气外强迫作用下,海-气系统才可以产生类似ENSO模的耦合波。资料和理论模式分析和结果相结合,说明热带大气季节内振荡激发El Nino的机制  相似文献   

10.
龙振夏  李崇银 《气象学报》1996,54(5):521-535
利用IAP两层大气环流模式模拟研究了热带地区积云对流加热在大气对赤道东太平洋海温正异常响应中的作用。通过对积分结果进行分析发现:热带地区积云对流在大气对赤道东太平洋海温正异常的响应过程中起着非常重要的作用。若热带地区的积云对流加热减弱则大气中的遥响应(相关)型也减弱。同时我们还发现,热带地区的积云对流加热加强则响应场的30—60d低频振荡也得到加强。  相似文献   

11.
The nonlinear discriminant and stepwise nonlinear discriminant analyses   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The nonlinear discriminant function, when covariance matrixes of each population are not equal to each other, is discussed on the basis of Bayes’ criterion, and by using the stepwise discriminant method, a method for calculating the nonlinear discriminant function is provided, which is called “stepwise nonlinear discriminant analysis”. In addition, an appropriate discriminant analysis model is selected by testing whether the covariance matrixes of each population are equal, which was proposed by Box. The calculations show that, the discrimi-nant effects of this method are superior not only to linear discriminant analysis, but also to nonlinear discrimi-nant analysis in which the stepwise discriminant algorithm is not used when covariance matrixes of each popu-lation are not equal to each other. Satisfactory results have been obtained in applying this method. This is an important improvement on the linear discriminant analysis used in the weather typing prediction at present.  相似文献   

12.
Numerical experiments based on the WRF model were conducted to analyze the structure and evolution of the polar mesoscale cyclone developed over the Kara Sea on September 29-30, 2008. It was found that baroclinic instability in the lower troposphere and convective instability (including that due to the wind-induced surface heat exchange) did not play a significant role. Significant contribution was made by the downward advection of potential vorticity from the upper troposphere and by the conditional instability of second kind. It is demonstrated that if water phase transitions are not taken into account, the mesocyclone intensity is reduced by 7-20% and the time of its development increases by 4 hours. The advection of potential vorticity was not the only process causing the intensification of the lower potential vorticity anomaly associated with cyclonic circulation.  相似文献   

13.
Climate change and cyclic variation are investigated based on station data of 61 years (1951–2011), representing twelve climatic zones in Iran. Climate change is investigated by applying the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the three-dimensional loglinear model to the12-month SPI time series, and by applying the likelihood ratio test to precipitation time series. Cyclic variation is studied by applying the three-dimensional loglinear model to the 12-month SPI time series. Analysis included entire data period, two sub-periods [(1951–1981), (1982–2011)] and three sub-periods [(1951–1971), (1972–1991), (1992–2011)]. The Mann–Kendall test results indicated combinations of different trend behaviors, whereby climate change could not be evaluated. The likelihood ratio test did not confirm climate change (at 95 % confidence level), in most of the studied stations. However, the more in-depth analysis by the three-dimensional loglinear model, i.e., detection of significant differences among drought frequencies, did not confirm climate change (at 95 % confidence level), in any of the studied stations. Cyclic variation was not confirmed by the three-dimensional loglinear model (at 95 % confidence level), in any of the studied stations. The findings of this research illustrate the need for meticulous techniques like the three-dimensional loglinear model, as a necessary tool for climate change and cyclic variation studies.  相似文献   

14.
Using observations covering the last 128 years we show that apparent changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections can be explained by chance and stem from sampling variability. This result is backed by experiments in which an atmosphere model is driven by 123 years of observed sea surface temperature. The possibility of ENSO teleconnection changes in a warming climate is further investigated using coupled GCMs driven by past and projected future greenhouse gas concentrations. These runs do not exclude physical changes in the teleconnection strength but do not agree on their magnitude and location. If existing at all, changes in the strength of ENSO teleconnection, other than obtained by chance, are small and will only be detectable on centennial time scales.  相似文献   

15.
双线偏振多普勒雷达测量的参数KDP在定量估测降雨强度和识别降水粒子相态方面都有着很重要的作用。鉴于雷达实测KDP值来源于S波段双线偏振雷达信号处理器(RVP8)的结果,没有具体的计算过程,不便于进行雷达资料预处理和质量控制。探讨总结了KDP的3种算法,通过实测数据,将雷达信号处理器(RVP8)观测的KDP作为参考值,进行了对比分析。结果表明:最小二乘法误差最小,精度最高;讨论了沿雷达径向,不同平滑距离对最小二乘法KDP计算的影响;同时研究了雷达实测KDP与通过Z-R关系计算的降雨强度之间的关系显示,5 km的距离长度既能起到足够的平滑作用,又能保持足够的气象信息,不至于影响测量降水效果;同时,KDP与降雨强度之间存在较好的对应关系,在强降雨阶段尤为显著,可以利用KDP来估算反演降雨强度。  相似文献   

16.
双线偏振多普勒雷达测量参数KDP在定量估测降雨强度和识别降水粒子相态方面都有着很重要的作用。鉴于雷达实测KDP值来源于S波段双线偏振雷达信号处理器(RVP8)的结果,没有具体的计算过程,不便于进行雷达资料预处理和质量控制,探讨了KDP的3种算法,通过实测数据,将雷达信号处理器(RVP8)观测的KDP作为参考值,进行了对比分析。结果表明:最小二乘法误差最小,精度最高;讨论了沿雷达径向,不同平滑距离对最小二乘法KDP计算的影响。同时研究雷达实测KDP与通过Z-R关系计算的降雨强度之间的关系表明5,km的距离长度既能起到足够的平滑作用,又能保持足够的气象信息,不至于影响测量降水效果;KDP与降雨强度之间存在较好的对应关系,在强降雨阶段尤为显著,可以利用KDP来估算反演降雨强度。  相似文献   

17.
雷击大地密度Ng作为一个重要的气象参数,直接影响雷电灾害风险评估的科学计算。Ng数值的获取有两种方式:一种是由地闪定位网络系统提供,一种是按Ng≈0.1T_d(年均雷暴日)估算。在利用后一种方法获取Ng值时,简单地取0.1T_d并非科学。因为T_d是较大区域范围的平均值,未必是雷电灾害风险评估项目所处区域的真实值;况且Ng值不仅受T_d的影响,还与雷暴时间、雷暴路径、闪电特征、雷灾频次与强度有关。因此,利用后一种方法获取Ng值时,需计入其他气象因素的影响。基于对影响Ng的各种气象因素的分析,将焦作市按行政区划定为65个区域,根据各个区域的气象环境,分析出各个区域的雷电灾害风险等级;根据风险等级,设定风险系数,并结合周边区域气象因素对该区域的影响,计算出Ng的修正系数,修正Ng的取值,使修正后的Ng值更接近真实值。  相似文献   

18.
利用地面观测资料,以及观测经验,对台风产生的降水过程进行分析,从中鉴别出该降水是阵性还是非阵性。  相似文献   

19.
利用地面观测资料,以及观测经验,对台风产生的降水过程进行分析,从中鉴别出该降水是阵性还是非阵性。  相似文献   

20.
Experiments have been carried out to investigate the dispersion of plumes at short range in the atmospheric boundary layer during stable and unstable conditions. The experiments and measurement system are described, and the results are compared with those of previous experiments. The slow meandering under stable conditions found by Mylne (1992) is not present here (probably because of topographic effects), so the plume is present on the mean centreline more often, and timescales are shorter, under stable conditions. Associated with this, statistics during stable conditions exhibit greater stability to changes in total sampling time. Intensity is found to be greater under unstable conditions, but there do not appear to be large differences in the shape of the probability density function between stable and unstable conditions. The intermittency is calculated using several variations on the conventional definition. The values obtained vary substantially according to which definition is used (although they are always higher in the stable than in the unstable experiments), demonstrating the sensitivity to both the precise definition and to measurement system characteristics. It is shown that even at very short range the mean and variance of concentration are determined almost entirely by the fluid not emanating from the source. Thus the partition between source and non-source fluid suggested by Chatwin and Sullivan (1989), while providing a more scientifically sound definition of intermittency, does not have an obvious direct practical application.  相似文献   

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