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1.
人类活动对气候影响的研究Ⅰ.温室气体和气溶胶 总被引：13，自引：5，他引：8
近5年来中国在温室气体源和汇,碳循环,气溶胶以及对流层臭氧等方面都进行了大量的研究.作者着重介绍农田温室气体排放,碳循环模式,亚洲沙尘气溶胶,对流层臭氧前体物的来源以及大气有机化合物的浓度观测等方面的主要研究成果,特别是关于稻田甲烷排放和沙尘气溶胶的物理化学特性方面的研究成果. 相似文献
2.
汤洁 《中国气象科学研究院年报》1998,(1)
本项目由国家自然科学基金委员会面上项目《青藏高原大气臭氧和气溶胶的观测研究》和中国气象科学研究院大气化学开放实验室经费共同支持项目负责人为中国科学院大气物理研究所石广玉研究员和中国气象科学研究院汤洁副研究员。目的通过对青藏高原地区上空大气臭氧和相关前体物、气溶胶进行综合观测,研究青藏高原地区上空夏季大气臭氧低谷形成的过程、物理化学成因和机制。背景”八五一期间国家自然科学基金的重大项目”中国地区大气臭氧变化及其对气候环境的影响”的研究结果揭示了青藏高原地区上空夏季6－9月间存在着大气臭氧总量的异常低… 相似文献
3.
地球系统模式是研究全球气候与生态环境变化问题的重要工具，气溶胶与大气化学模式负责为其中的大气环流模式提供与气候效应有关的气态化学物质和气溶胶成分。本文在全球嵌套网格空气质量预报模式系统的基础上发展了一个适用于中国科学院地球系统模式（CAS-ESM）耦合计算的气溶胶与大气化学分量模式（IAP-AACM），采用简化的气相化学机制，不仅考虑了人为气溶胶，同时考虑了海盐、沙尘和二甲基硫等自然气溶胶及其前体物的在线排放。评估结果表明，IAP-AACM氧化剂插值计算可靠，采用简化机制和碳键机制（CBM-Z）模拟的差异较小。和观测的对比表明，得益于CAS-ESM的气溶胶双向反馈作用，简化版能够较好地抓住气溶胶及其前体物的空间分布，为IAP-AGCM提供可靠的气溶胶模拟。另外，简化版能大幅提升计算效率，满足CAS-ESM耦合长期积分的需求。为了在全球气候变化的研究中提供更完善的气溶胶模拟，未来考虑在IAP-AACM中增加氮化学和臭氧平流层化学机制。 相似文献
4.
本文解读最近发布的政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC）第六次气候变化评估报告（Sixth Assessment Report,AR6）关于空气污染-气候相互作用的主要新结论。在大气污染物的气候效应方面,AR6估算了大气污染物或其前体物排放变化导致的有效辐射强迫值（Effective Radiative Forcing,ERF）,对评估大气污染治理可能产生的气候效应具有启示性意义。AR6也估算出1750—2019年间人为强迫导致的全球平均地表温度（Global mean Surface Air Temperature,GSAT）变化为1.29（0.99～1.65）℃,其中,均匀混合温室气体、臭氧、气溶胶导致的温度变化分别为1.58（1.17～2.17）℃、0.23（0.11～0.39）℃、-0.50（-0.22～-0.96）℃。气溶胶历史变化的气候效应中,起决定性作用的是由SO2排放变化通过气溶胶-云相互作用所产生的ERF （高信度）,从而部分抵消了人为排放温室气体所引起的变暖（高信度）。在气候变化影响大气污染物方面,AR6首次评估获得了地表臭氧浓度对温度的敏感性,在偏远地区为-0.2 ～-2 nL·L-1·℃-1、在污染区为0.2 ～2 nL·L-1·℃-1。在大多数陆地区域,关于气候变化是增加还是减少PM2.5,目前模式结果结论的一致性较低。 相似文献
5.
空气污染与气候变化 总被引：24，自引：1，他引：23
近50年来,全球气候变化主要由大气温室气体浓度的日益增加引起,而空气污染主要由悬浮于空气中的大气气溶胶粒子造成,它们都主要由矿物燃料的燃烧排放形成.近年的研究表明,大气气溶胶粒子也具有气候效应:一是通过散射和吸收太阳光,减少到达地面的太阳辐射而具有降冷作用,可抵消一部分由温室气体造成的变暖作用;二是可以作为云中凝结核改变云微物理过程和降水性质,改变大气的水循环.大气气溶胶对于经济社会的许多方面,如农业、水资源、人体健康、城市化等也表现出重要的影响.由于空气污染和气候变化在很大程度上有共同的原因,即主要都是由矿物燃料燃烧的排放造成,因而减轻和控制空气污染与减少温室气体排放保护气候在行动上应是一致的.为了从经济上得到最大的节约和获得双赢的效果,应该采取协同应对空气污染和气候变化的减排战略,即应该采取统一的而不是分离的科学研究和应对战略. 相似文献
6.
中国及邻近地区污染排放对对流层臭氧变化与辐射影响的研究 总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10
利用双向耦合的区域气候模式和大气化学模式系统, 研究了中国与邻近地区人为污染排放引起对流层臭氧变化和产生的辐射强迫.结果表明, 污染排放对对流层臭氧含量的影响有明显的季节变化, 对北方的影响不如南方显著, 西部的季节变化稳定且小于东部, 内陆污染地区各季节臭氧柱含量的变化量均较高.对整个模拟区域而言, 臭氧变化量的年平均值为30.928 DU, 春季最大为32.168 DU, 而空间分布变化在12～38 DU之间.臭氧变化量对北方地区辐射的影响较小, 而对低纬和华东地区影响较大, 臭氧变化量引起的晴空地气系统短波辐射强迫、长波辐射强迫的平均值分别是0.185 W·m-2和0.464 W·m-2, 标准化短波辐射强迫与净辐射强迫值为0.006 W·m-2·DU-1和0.021 W·m-2·DU-1.气候反馈过程对对流层臭氧含量的影响范围在-0.470～0.752 DU之间, 包含气候反馈过程的区域年平均臭氧变化量是30.942 DU.在气候反馈条件下, 臭氧变化量的短波和长波辐射强迫分别是0.249 W·m-2及 0.482 W·m-2, 标准化的短波与净辐射强迫值为0.008 W·m-2·DU-1和0.024 W·m-2·DU-1.臭氧变化量导致地表温度的变化范围在±0.80 K之间. 相似文献
7.
人类活动对20世纪中国西北地区气候变化影响检测和21世纪预测 总被引：42，自引：2，他引：40
使用各国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第一工作组(WG1)2001年科学评估报告中给出的7个全球气候系统模式(CCC、CCSR、CSIRO、DKRZ、GFDL、HADL、NCAR),对20世纪中国西北地区气候变化作检测表明,从观测计算得到的近百年中国西北地区气候变暖0.75℃和近50年气候变暖0.88℃,很可能与人类活动造成大气中温室气体浓度增加以及硫化物气溶胶增加有联系.所有模式的控制试验没有表现出明显的增暖趋势,但是,根据20世纪的排放,所有模式模拟出温室气体增加或温室气体与硫化物气溶胶增加,造成西北地区变暖平均为0.34～1.57℃/100 a和0.90～1.86℃/50 a.所有模式对21世纪中国西北地区气候变化的计算表明,21世纪由于人类活动排放温室气体增加,以及温室气体和硫化物气溶胶增加,西北地区气温将可能平均升高2.79～4.50℃/100a.对21世纪未来降水变化的分析表明,由于温室气体增加,以及由于温室气体和硫化物气溶胶增加,未来西北地区降水将可能增加48～60 mm/100a.由于全球气候模式在模拟区域尺度气候变化上存在较大的不确定性,以及人类活动排放的多样性,因此,对未来的预测展望存在不确定性. 相似文献
8.
中国近30a臭氧气候场特征 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
利用1979—2005年TOMS（total ozone mapping spectrometer）和2006—2007年OMI（ozone mo-nitoring instrument）的卫星观测资料,分析中国地区对流层臭氧含量（tropospheric ozone residue,TOR）、整层臭氧含量（total ozone,TO）的空间分布和季节变化特征,利用二项式加权平均法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法以及小波分析法分析南方典型地区广州臭氧序列的趋势、突变以及周期特征。结果表明,中国地区多年平均对流层臭氧柱含量为35.89DU,东中部地区高于西部,四川东部和重庆西部存在极高值区,青藏高原为极低值区;对流层臭氧夏季平均值最高,冬季最低,春季高于秋季。中国地区多年平均臭氧总量为298.61DU。臭氧总量随着纬度增大而增大,成带状分布,青藏高原为极低值区;臭氧总量春季平均值最大,秋季为最低。南方广州地区的对流层臭氧在1979—2007年之间存在明显的上升趋势,时间变率为0.38DU/（10a）;TOR时间序列在1997年发生突变,存在显著的1a及2a的周期。臭氧总量在1979—2007年之间存在明显的下降趋势,变化率为-2.1DU/（10a）;TO在1993年发生突变,存在显著的2a周期 相似文献
9.
《气象与环境学报》2016,(1)
利用2002年9月至2012年12月北京地区臭氧探空资料分析了大气臭氧的垂直分布特征,重点分析了对流层顶附近区域臭氧的季节变化与变率。结果表明:北京地区对流层臭氧的垂直分布主要表现为随高度递增的特征;臭氧的平均浓度夏季最高,冬季最低,春季和秋季相当,各季节的臭氧浓度在不同高度范围内略有差别。在对流层上层至平流层下层(8—15 km),臭氧浓度的垂直分布与平均浓度受对流层顶高度的影响显著。基于对流层顶相对高度坐标的分析表明,对流层顶下方1—3 km高度的臭氧仍保持了对流层臭氧的垂直分布特征;而在对流层顶高度附近,各季节臭氧浓度均随高度显著增加;由于垂直增速有显著的季节差异,导致臭氧平均浓度在对流层顶上方1—3 km出现明显变化。臭氧浓度归一化标准差表明:在对流层低层,大气臭氧浓度的变率在冬季最强,秋季、春季和夏季臭氧浓度的变率依次减弱;在对流层顶附近,大气臭氧浓度的变率在春季最强,冬季、秋季和夏季臭氧浓度的变率依次减弱,其中冬季和春季的强臭氧变率可能与对流层顶附近活跃的大气波动及对流层顶高度的频繁扰动密切联系。 相似文献
10.
人类活动对气候影响的研究Ⅱ.对东亚和中国气候变化的影响 总被引：21，自引：6，他引：15
系统总结和介绍了20世纪90年代以来作者所开展的有关人类活动对东亚和中国气候影响的一系列研究活动.其中包括温室气体辐射强迫及其气候效应,大气微量气体的全球增温潜能,对流层和平流层气溶胶的辐射气候效应,气候系统外部因子对中国气候影响的总体评估,人类活动对中国和东亚地区未来气候变化的影响,以及20世纪和21世纪东亚及中国的气候变化.同时给出了一系列研究成果,这些研究成果对于正确认识和准确预测东亚地区以及中国气候变化具有十分重要的意义. 相似文献
11.
Extensive research on the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, carbon cycle modeling, and the characterization of atmospheric aerosols has been carried out in China during the last 10 years or so. This paper presents the major achievements in the fields of emissions of greenhouse gases from agricultural lands,carbon cycle modeling, the characterization of Asian mineral dust, source identification of the precursors of the tropospheric ozone, and observations of the concentrations of atmospheric organic compounds.Special, more detailed information on the emissions of methane from rice fields and the physical and chemical characteristics of mineral aerosols are Dresented. 相似文献
12.
Extensive research on the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, carbon cycle modeling, and the characterization of atmospheric aerosols has been carried out in China during the last 10 years or so. This paper presents the major achievements in the fields of emissions of greenhouse gases from agricultural lands, carbon cycle modeling, the characterization of Asian mineral dust, source identification of the precursors of the tropospheric ozone, and observations of the concentrations of atmospheric organic compounds. Special, more detailed Information on the emissions of methane from rice fields and the physical and chemical characteristics of mineral aerosols are presented. 相似文献
13.
The global three-dimensional Lagrangian chemistry-transport model STOCHEM has been used to follow the changes in the tropospheric distributions of the two major radiatively-active trace gases, methane and tropospheric ozone, following the emission of pulses of the short-lived tropospheric ozone precursor species, methane, carbon monoxide, NOx and hydrogen. The radiative impacts of NOx emissionswere dependent on the location chosen for the emission pulse, whether at the surface or in the upper troposphere or whether in the northern or southern hemispheres. Global warming potentials were derived for each of the short-lived tropospheric ozone precursor species by integrating the methane and tropospheric ozone responses over a 100 year time horizon. Indirect radiative forcing due to methane and tropospheric ozone changes appear to be significant for all of the tropospheric ozone precursor species studied. Whereas the radiative forcing from methane changes is likely to be dominated by methane emissions, that from tropospheric ozone changes is controlled by all the tropospheric ozone precursor gases, particularly NOxemissions. The indirect radiative forcing impacts of tropospheric ozone changes may be large enough such that ozone precursors should be considered in the basket of trace gases through which policy-makers aim to combat global climate change. 相似文献
14.
A coupled model study on the intensification of the Asian summer monsoon in IPCC SRES Scenarios 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Asian summer monsoon is an important part of the climate system. Investigating the response of the Asian summer monsoon to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols will be meaningful to understand and predict climate variability and climate change not only in Asia but also globally. In order to diagnose the impacts of future anthropogenic emissions on monsoon climates, a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean has been used at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. In addition to carbon dioxide, the major well mixed greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, several chlorofluorocarbons, and CFC substitute gases are prescribed as a function of time. The sulfur cycle is simulated interactively, and both the direct aerosol effect and the indirect cloud albedo effect are considered. Furthermore, changes in tropospheric ozone have been pre-calculated with a chemical transport model and prescribed as a function of time and space in the climate simulations. Concentrations of greenhouse gases and anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide are prescribed according to observations （1860-1990） and projected into the future （1990-2100） according to the Scenarios A2 and B2 in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES, Nakcenovic et al., 2000） developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）. It is found that the Indian summer monsoon is enhanced in the scenarios in terms of both mean precipitation and interannual variability. An increase in precipitation is simulated for northern China but a decrease for the southern part. Furthermore, the simulated future increase in monsoon variability seems to be linked to enhanced ENSO variability towards the end of the scenario integrations. 相似文献
15.
China has been experiencing widespread air pollution due to rapid industrialization and urbanization in recent decades.The two major concerns of ambient air quality in China are particulate matter(PM) and tropospheric ozone(O_3). With the implementation of air pollution prevention and control actions in the last five years, the PM pollution in China has been substantially reduced. In contrast, under the conditions of the urban air pollution complex, the elevated O_3 levels in city clusters of eastern China, especially in warm seasons, have drawn increasing attention. Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors not only contribute to regional air quality, but also alter climate. Climate change in turn can change chemical processes, long-range transport, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. Compared to PM, less is known about O_3 pollution and its climate effects over China. Here, we present a review of the main findings from the literature over the period 2011–18 with regard to the characteristics of O_3 concentrations in China and the mechanisms that drive its interannual to decadal variations, aiming to identify robust conclusions that may guide decision-making for emissions control and to highlight critical knowledge gaps. We also review regional and global modeling studies that have investigated the impacts of tropospheric O_3 on climate, as well as the projections of future tropospheric O_3 owing to climate and/or emission changes. 相似文献
16.
By C. R. HOYLE G. MYHRE I. S. A. ISAKSEN 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》2009,61(4):618-624
The effect of anthropogenic emissions from China on global burdens of ozone, sulphate, organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) aerosols is examined, using the three-dimensional chemistry transport model Oslo CTM2. Two model simulations were performed, the first with global present-day emissions and the second with the anthropogenic emissions from China set to their pre-industrial levels. The global radiative forcing for these species is then calculated. Industrial emissions from China are found to account for a 4–5% increase in the global burden of OC aerosol, the change in secondary organic aerosol being slightly less than that of primary organic aerosol. A 10% increase in the global sulphate aerosol burden is calculated, and the increase in BC is 23%. The global radiative forcing of aerosols from China was calculated to be −62, −3.7, −13 and 89 mW m−2 , for sulphate, secondary organic, primary organic and BC aerosols, respectively. The increase in ozone causes a forcing of 77 mW m−2 . 相似文献
17.
There are many indicators that human activity may change climate conditions all around the globe through emissions of greenhouse
gases. In addition, aerosol particles are emitted from various natural and anthropogenic sources. One important source of
aerosols arises from biomass burning, particularly in low latitudes where shifting cultivation and land degradation lead to
enhanced aerosol burden. In this study the counteracting effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols on African climate are compared
using climate model experiments with fully interactive aerosols from different sources. The consideration of aerosol emissions
induces a remarkable decrease in short-wave solar irradiation near the surface, especially in winter and autumn in tropical
West Africa and the Congo Basin where biomass burning is mainly prevailing. This directly leads to a modification of the surface
energy budget with reduced sensible heat fluxes. As a consequence, temperature decreases, compensating the strong warming
signal due to enhanced trace gas concentrations. While precipitation in tropical Africa is less sensitive to the greenhouse
warming, it tends to decrease, if the effect of aerosols from biomass burning is taken into account. This is partly due to
the local impact of enhanced aerosol burden and partly to modifications of the large-scale monsoon circulation in the lower
troposphere, usually lagging behind the season with maximum aerosol emissions. In the model equilibrium experiments, the greenhouse
gas impact on temperature stands out from internal variability at various time scales from daily to decadaland the same holds
for precipitation under the additional aerosol forcing. Greenhouse gases and aerosols exhibit an opposite effect on daily
temperature extremes, resulting in an compensation of the individual responses under the combined forcing. In terms of precipitation,
daily extreme events tend to be reduced under aerosol forcing, particularly over the tropical Atlantic and the Congo basin.
These results suggest that the simulation of the multiple aerosol effects from anthropogenic sources represents an important
factor in tropical climate change, hence, requiring more attention in climate modelling attempts. 相似文献
18.
根据TOR卫星数据分析,我国长江三角洲地区对流层O3柱含量的长期变化就全年和大多数月份而言均为增长趋势,1978-2000年间其年均值的增长趋势为0.82 DU/10 a。这种长期变化趋势所引起的气候效应及其对大气氧化性的影响值得进一步研究。结果表明,长江三角洲地区对流层O3柱含量的季节变化与该地区的临安区域大气本底站的地面O3季节变化有着显著的相关关系,临安站的观测数据具有区域代表性。 相似文献
19.
Analysis of tropospheric ozone residual (TOR) data from satellite measurements indicates an increasing trend of tropospheric ozone over the Yangtze Delta region of China. The increasing trend can be derived both from the annual mean TOR and from the monthly mean TOR except for January and March. The increase rate of the decadal mean TOR was 0.82 DU during 1978-2000. The impact of this long-term trend on the climate and atmospheric oxidizing capacity over the region should be further studied. Data comparison shows a significant correlation between the TOR and surface ozone data collected at Lin'an background station in the Yangtze Delta region, suggesting an internal connection between both quantities. 相似文献