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1.
利用多普勒雷达、气象卫星、自动气象站等监测数据以及NCEP再分析资料,对桂林2019年6月6-12日接连3次强降水天气过程的环流背景、影响系统与形成原因进行了对比分析。结果表明:(1)3次过程按影响系统分属暖区暴雨、低涡暴雨和锋面暴雨过程,均发生在高空急流右侧辐散、低空急流左侧辐合叠加区。(2)3次过程均受500 hPa短波槽和地面中尺度辐合线影响,但第1次过程中西南急流及地形等、第2次过程中低涡切变线、第3次过程中冷锋也起到重要作用。(3)3次过程的触发系统不同,第1次暖区暴雨过程迎风坡地形对其起触发作用,西南急流使得后向传播的对流云带维持;第2次低涡暴雨过程的触发系统为低层位于贵州一带的西南涡,西部冷空气侵入与西南急流加强是低涡对流云团维持较长时间的原因;第3次锋面暴雨的触发系统为冷锋,锋面配合锋前暖湿气流使对流云带加强。(4)第1次过程暖区暴雨MCS模态主要为线状后向扩建类,极端强降水出现在线对流中后端;第2次过程低涡暴雨MCS模态为涡旋类,极端强降水出现在涡旋中心附近;第3次过程锋面暴雨MCS模态由前期后部层云区线状对流转为层状云包裹对流系统,强降水发生在线对流弯曲或中心强回波处。  相似文献   

2.
一次强降水过程涡旋状MCS结构特征及成因初步分析   总被引:8,自引:8,他引:0  
吴涛  张家国  牛奔 《气象》2017,43(5):540-551
利用新一代天气雷达资料分析了造成2011年6月18日湖北省江汉平原强降水涡旋状中尺度对流系统(MCS)发生发展过程的结构特征,联合常规观测、地面加密观测及雷达四维变分风场反演资料初步研究了MCS可能成因。结果表明:(1)成熟阶段的强降水涡旋状MCS回波表现为气旋性弯曲的多条螺旋对流回波带、周围被大片层状云回波所包裹的结构特征,后期因冷空气侵入演变出冷暖锋式结构。回波合并和旋转式列车效应是产生强降水的主要运动特征。(2)涡旋状MCS是在有利环境场下,主要由鄂西山地一江汉平原过渡带边界层中尺度涡旋系统强烈发展组织的结果。(3)中尺度涡旋系统形成发展与地面暖倒槽发展、西南低涡前侧降水和特殊地形作用有密切关系,来自不同方向气流形成的强烈辐合是其前期形成发展的主要机制,后期发展可能与潜热释放有关,涡旋环流向上发展到700 hPa。  相似文献   

3.
利用常规观测资料、多普勒天气雷达资料及NCEP再分析资料,对2018年5月18日湖北省中东部地区一次尾随层状云类中尺度对流系统(MCS)的雷达回波特征和地面中尺度系统演变特征进行了分析。结果表明:1)短波槽东移南压,引导冷空气南下,与副热带高压外侧强劲的西南暖湿急流长时间在湖北省中东部地区交汇,形成有利于诱发MCS的大尺度环流背景;2)强降水的主要发生时段集中于尾随层状云降水回波对流线形成的初始阶段和成熟阶段,强雨团主要位于对流线附近及层状云降水回波头部,同时伴有雷暴大风天气;3)西南涡的发展为尾随层状云类MCS高效降水产生提供有利的环境场,边界层中尺度辐合线在对流的触发、发展、组织的过程中起到重要的作用,地形的抬升作用及阻挡作用,使MCS持续发展,同时,MCS后部"冷池"能量累积溢出形成雷暴冷出流与环境南风辐合,不断激发新的MCS;4)对流线附近存在明显的上升气流,环境风入流提供了充足的水汽供应,其前侧、后方分别有一支不同高度的下沉气流(出流或入流),并与环境风辐合,使MCS向前持续发展,并在后方不断激发新的MCS,造成较长时间的强降水。  相似文献   

4.
王孝慈  李双君  孟英杰 《气象》2022,48(5):633-646
利用自动气象站逐小时和逐5 min观测资料、长江中游雷达组合反射率因子SWAN拼图产品及NCEP FNL再分析资料,对武汉地区4次低质心类短时强降水对流风暴特征进行分析。结果表明:不同的天气背景诱发的对流系统特征不同,低层暖强迫造成的斜压不稳定背景下,环境条件高能高湿,雷暴冷池的积累有利于稳定性降水前沿触发线状强对流;斜压锋生天气背景下,冷暖剧烈交汇使得大气斜压性显著增强,地面多有中尺度气旋波发展,锋区冷区稳定性降水中多伴随短时强降水,而暖区能量、湿度条件更好,易诱发短时强降水等分散性强对流;准正压天气背景下,大气斜压性弱,环境高能高湿,多由近地面层流场强迫和局地热力差异触发剧烈的热对流活动。从对流风暴雷达回波特征和降水特征来看,TS类线状中尺度对流系统(MCS)移速较快,短时强降水范围小;准静止类表现为带状走向的大范围层状云回波稳定维持,中间伴有多个积云对流生消迭代,每一阶段降水增强都与新生对流单体途经武汉站点相对应;组织合并类在回波合并时,意味着短时强降水的发展增强,合并后的回波形态和走向影响着降水的强度和持续时间。在不同的环境背景、触发诱因和组织形态下,短时强降水发生前后地面气象...  相似文献   

5.
利用地面加密自动站、常规观测资料、NCEP再分析资料和两种模式产品,对发生在宜昌峡谷地区2016年7月7日局地极端短时强降水过程和2018年4月22日稳定性极端降水过程形成原因及模式预报性能进行检验分析。结果表明:(1)强的块状回波稳定少动,造成7月7日高效率的对流降水。4月22日降水既有沿山中尺度对流回波造成的对流降水,也有螺旋状涡旋回波形成的锋面层状云降水。(2)山谷风形成中尺度切变线,触发对流,中尺度切变线发展为中尺度涡旋使对流加强是极端短时降水形成的主要原因。(3)地形强迫抬升使对流降水强度明显增大,锋面层状云回波受地形阻挡影响长时间维持是稳定性极端降水形成主要原因。(4)地形相差大的地区模式预报性能差异较大,模式对复杂地形下的对流降水预报偏弱,导致系统强度出现差异,进而影响降水强度预报。  相似文献   

6.
《湖北气象》2021,40(2)
利用2008—2018年4—9月新一代天气雷达资料,挑选了引发湖北省极端降水过程的70例中尺度对流系统(mesoscale convective systems,MCS),重点研究了线状MCS成熟阶段的时空分布特征,结果表明:(1) 5类线状MCS中邻接层状云降水AS (adjoining stratiform)发生比例最高,前导层状云降水LS (leading stratiform)、平行层状云降水PS (parallel-stratiform)所占比例最少。(2) MCS多集中在6个区域发展,多在武陵山东南侧、大别山南坡、幕阜山北坡及江汉平原一带形成,由生成地向东或东偏南方向移动,部分准静止后向建立型BB (back building)类MCS从发生到消散基本维持在原地。(3)从月季变化来看,6月和7月引发极端强降水的MCS个例最多,4月和9月的个例数最少。(4) MCS的平均生命史为5~8 h,多发于下午至傍晚;夜间、午夜前后为成熟高峰期;极端降水多在夜间发生,松滋、天门和红安市为极端降水多发地。  相似文献   

7.
梅雨锋上短时强降水系统的发展模态   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
张小玲  余蓉  杜牧云 《大气科学》2014,38(4):770-781
利用2010、2011年5~7月我国东部地区梅雨锋盛行期的58次强降水个例,对产生短时强降水的中尺度对流系统回波演变模态及其系统特征进行了统计分析。本文中短时强降水特指小时降水超过30 mm。结果表明,与梅雨锋相伴的短时强降水系统回波演变模态主要为纬向型、经向型、转向型和合并型四类。纬向型、经向型和70%的转向型发展模态中中尺度对流系统(MCS)呈线状,合并型则主要为卵状。纬向型、转向型和合并型MCS以后向传播为主,但它们的生命史、移速和产生强降水持续时间有很大差别:纬向型生命史最长,强降水持续时间比转向型短;三类发展模态中转向型移速最快,生命史较纬向型短,但强降水持续时间最长;合并型移动最慢,生命史最短,强降水持续时间也最短。经向型MCS前向传播为主,移动最快,系统持续史短,约为纬向型的一半,30 mm h-1、50 mm h-1以上强降水持续时间约为转向型的1/3和1/5。纬向型MCS可向东或向南移动,经向型MCS通常向东或向西运动,合并型MCS可往任意方向移动,并且只有该发展模态中MCS会向北运动。虽然转向型MCS带来的短时强降水(尤其50 mm h-1以上)持续时间最长,经向型和合并型MCS产生短时强降水持续时间短,但四类发展模态中MCS的回波强度和回波高度的统计特征无明显区别。推测强降水持续时间可能与MCS的传播关系更加密切:经向型和合并型MCS前向传播占很大比重,生命史和产生的强降水更短;转向型和纬向型MCS的后向传播比重大,尤其转向型中不存在前向传播,对应短时强降水持续时间最长。  相似文献   

8.
范元月  罗剑琴  张家国  叶丹  陈亮 《气象》2020,46(6):776-791
利用多普勒天气雷达和区域自动气象站资料以及常规观测资料,分析了2016—2017年宜昌极端短时强降水的环境条件和中尺度对流系统(MCS)的演变与活动特征。结果表明,极端短时强降水发生的形势背景共有三种:斜压锋生、准正压和低层暖平流强迫。在斜压锋生环境中,冷锋南下在宜昌中西部速度变缓,与暖倒槽中暖湿气流多次合并形成锋生,其造成的强烈抬升使MCS中单体质心较高,强回波厚达5~6 km,强的垂直切变导致单体出现悬垂结构,这些环境条件使气流合并时瞬时雨强较大;在气流合并、地形阻挡时对流持续时间较长,造成间歇性、分散性极端短时强降水。准正压Ⅰ型极端短时强降水发生在副热带高压边缘,地面鞍型场中南风气流发展,在地形作用下形成的辐合中心触发并增强对流单体,低质心、塔状、厚度高达7 km的强回波造成的瞬时雨强极大,引导气流较弱及下游山前减弱单体的后向传播效应导致山前的河谷地区对流再次加强,造成时间较短、范围极小而雨强极大的极端短时强降水;准正压Ⅱ型极端短时强降水发生在东风波西移过程中,暖湿的东风气流与边界层偏北气流合并时,导致超低质心的深厚塔状强降水回波,山体东侧过渡带地形使偏北风、偏东风多次合并,因而在过渡带地区造成雨强相对较小而范围较大、持续几个时次的极端短时强降水。在暖平流强迫环境中,西南急流加强时地面发展出辐合线,在辐合线上有向下游倾斜的深厚强回波单体沿着辐合线间隔排列,切变线、辐合线和雨带走向一致,使对流线上单体出现"列车效应",对流单体在对流线的上游新生、加强,向下游移动,在对流线上连续几个时次出现间隔分布的线状极端短时强降水。  相似文献   

9.
徐姝  东高红  熊明明 《气象》2019,45(10):1426-1438
利用NCEP再分析资料、常规观测资料、FY-2E卫星TBB资料、多普勒雷达探测资料和地面加密自动站资料分析了2016年7月9日新乡特大暴雨过程的中尺度特征,并揭示了冷池形成原因及其对产生强降水的中尺度对流系统发生发展的影响。研究结果表明:新乡地区特大暴雨是由一个"低质心"结构的后向传播-准静止-涡旋状中尺度对流系统产生的。由层状云和对流性降水产生的冷池出流形成的中尺度温度梯度导致地面辐合进而触发了对流。冷池出流与环境风场形成的假相当位温密集带为对流系统提供不稳定能量,两者强度相当的对峙使能量密集带稳定少动,而中尺度对流系统的上风方即冷池出流南侧由于锋生作用将暖湿空气抬升并不断触发新对流,这种后向传播方式导致中尺度对流系统移动缓慢处于准静止状态,新生对流单体在地面中尺度涡旋流场的作用下呈有组织的涡旋状旋转,不断经过新乡地区造成强降水持续。湿冷的冷池同时也是本次强降水过程近地面水汽来源之一。太行山的阻挡作用导致冷池在山前堆积后向承载层平流方向相反的方向移动;小地形的峡谷效应有助于冷池出流南移,而且为中尺度地面涡旋形成提供了一支重要的西北气流。  相似文献   

10.
吴涛  许冠宇  李双君  魏凡 《气象》2023,(1):27-38
采用天气雷达、高空地面观测、1°×1°NCEP再分析场资料,分析一次春季江淮气旋形成发展过程中混合型(冰雹、大风、短时强降水)对流天气特征,初步解释了不同类型对流天气形成发展的原因。结果表明:不同类型强对流天气在时空分布和对流特征上存在差异,其中局地冰雹主要由气旋形成阶段离散对流线产生,带状短时强降水由气旋形成阶段人字形对流线上及发展阶段S形对流线后部的列车线/邻接层状云类中尺度对流系统(MCS)产生,大范围大风主要由江淮气旋发展阶段S形对流线上尾随层状云降水类MCS产生。江淮气旋是大尺度天气系统斜压发展的结果,对流活动使锋面低层辐合增强,对气旋形成发展有加强作用。强对流天气的产生与江淮气旋动力热力场有密切关系。气旋形成阶段,西南涡结合山区地形提供了有利于鄂西南大冰雹形成的环境场,暖式切变线以及气旋发展阶段受南支槽影响的冷式切变线,提供有利于风暴列车效应形成的环境场而产生短时强降水;气旋发展阶段,冷式切变线提供有利于后部入流急流形成的环境场而产生大范围大风。  相似文献   

11.
The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.  相似文献   

12.
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on  相似文献   

13.
The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.  相似文献   

14.
正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography.  相似文献   

15.
The variation of the East Asian jet stream(EAJS) associated with the Eurasian(EU) teleconnection pattern is investigated using 60-yr NCEP–NCAR daily reanalysis data over the period 1951–2010. The EAJS consists of three components: the polar front jet(PFJ); the plateau subtropical jet(PSJ); and the ocean subtropical jet(OSJ). Of these three jets over East Asia,the EU pattern exhibits a significant influence on the PFJ and OSJ. There is a simultaneous negative correlation between the EU pattern and the PFJ. A significant positive correlation is found between the EU pattern and the OSJ when the EU pattern leads the OSJ by about 5 days. There is no obvious correlation between the EU pattern and the PSJ. The positive EU phase is accompanied by a weakened and poleward-shifted PFJ, which coincides with an intensified OSJ. A possible mechanism for the variation of the EAJS during different EU phases is explored via analyzing the effects of 10-day high-and low-frequency eddy forcing. The zonal wind tendency due to high-frequency eddy forcing contributes to the simultaneous negative correlation between the EU pattern and the PFJ, as well as the northward/southward shift of the PFJ. High- and low-frequency eddy forcing are both responsible for the positive correlation between the EU pattern and the OSJ, but only high-frequency eddy forcing contributes to the lagged variation of the OSJ relative to the EU pattern. The negative correlation between the EU pattern and winter temperature and precipitation anomalies in China is maintained only when the PFJ and OSJ are out of phase with each other. Thus, the EAJS plays an important role in transmitting the EU signal to winter temperature and precipitation anomalies in China.  相似文献   

16.
By using the gauged rainfall in 160 stations within mainland China and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the impacts of anomalous SST in Kuroshio and its extension on precipitation in Northeast China were investigated. The results show that a difference in the meridional circulation such as the East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern(EAP)may be responsible for the difference in rainfall between 1998 and 2010. In comparison with 1998, the anomalous meridional circulation pattern in 2010 shifted northeastward, and then the western subtropical high, the mid-latitudinal trough and the northeastern Asia blocking high also shifted northeastward, causing intensified convergence of the cold and warm air masses at the southern region and thus more rainfall in the southwestern region and less in the northwestern region. In 1998, the anomalous cyclone, one component of the meridional pattern, located at the Songhuajiang-Nengjiang River basin, resulted in more rainfall in the majority of the area. The results of observation and the model show that the difference in SSTA in Kuroshio and its extension under the background of different El Ni觡o events is the key point:(1) The anomalous warmth moved westward from the mid-Pacific to the east of the Philippine Sea during the central event, which led the heat resources shifting to the northeast in 2010; subsequently, a shift occurred to the north of the anomalous ascent and decent, followed by a warm SSTA in the region of Kuroshio's extension in 2010 and Kuroshio in 1998.(2) The warm SSTA in the Kuroshio extension causing the Rossby wave activity flux strengthened in 2010, and then the westerly jet shifted northward and extended eastward. A warm SSTA in Kuroshio and cold SSTA in its extension in 1998 caused the westerly jet to shift southward and weaken. As a result,the anomalous anticyclone and cyclone shifted northward in 2010, and the blocking high also shifted northward.  相似文献   

17.
<p>Using the multielements similarity measurement method and 1950–C2017 NCEP/NCAR gridded daily reanalysis datasets, we analyzed season duration in China during 1950–C2016, and we defined the element with maximum absolute sensitivity as the key impact element at each point using the sensitivity analysis method. The decadal change of season duration and its key impact element before and after 1980 were studied. The results indicated obvious meridional and zonal differences in the distribution of season duration for the 67-year average, and that the key impact element has the same distribution characteristics as season duration. In addition, complementary relationships were found between the durations of spring and summer, autumn and winter, and the cold and warm seasons. Of those, the complementary relationship between the durations of spring and summer was strongest and the regions of complementarity were numerous. The complementary regions of autumn and winter durations were found mainly in western China. In the cold and warm seasons, the complementary regions were widespread and the complementary relationship was generally weak. Comparison of the periods before and after 1980 revealed an east–Cwest difference in the interdecadal variation of season duration. Interdecadal variation in spring and summer was found concentrated in northern and western regions, while that in autumn and winter was concentrated in the western region. Areas of significant interdecadal variation of the key elements were found concentrated in northern and western regions, corresponding well with the areas of significant interdecadal variation of season duration.</p>  相似文献   

18.
Understanding potential future influence of environmental, economic, and social drivers on land-use and sustainability is critical for guiding strategic decisions that can help nations adapt to change, anticipate opportunities, and cope with surprises. Using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, we undertook a comprehensive, detailed, integrated, and quantitative scenario analysis of land-use and sustainability for Australia’s agricultural land from 2013–2050, under interacting global change and domestic policies, and considering key uncertainties. We assessed land use competition between multiple land-uses and assessed the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services at high spatial (1.1 km grid cells) and temporal (annual) resolution. We found substantial potential for land-use transition from agriculture to carbon plantings, environmental plantings, and biofuels cropping under certain scenarios, with impacts on the sustainability of economic returns and ecosystem services including food/fibre production, emissions abatement, water resource use, biodiversity services, and energy production. However, the type, magnitude, timing, and location of land-use responses and their impacts were highly dependent on scenario parameter assumptions including global outlook and emissions abatement effort, domestic land-use policy settings, land-use change adoption behaviour, productivity growth, and capacity constraints. With strong global abatement incentives complemented by biodiversity-focussed domestic land-use policy, land-use responses can substantially increase and diversify economic returns to land and produce a much wider range of ecosystem services such as emissions abatement, biodiversity, and energy, without major impacts on agricultural production. However, better governance is needed for managing potentially significant water resource impacts. The results have wide-ranging implications for land-use and sustainability policy and governance at global and domestic scales and can inform strategic thinking and decision-making about land-use and sustainability in Australia. A comprehensive and freely available 26 GB data pack (http://doi.org/10.4225/08/5604A2E8A00CC) provides a unique resource for further research. As similarly nuanced transformational change is also possible elsewhere, our template for comprehensive, integrated, quantitative, and high resolution scenario analysis can support other nations in strategic thinking and decision-making to prepare for an uncertain future.  相似文献   

19.
基于最新的GTAP8(Global Trade Analysis Project)数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。  相似文献   

20.
碳交易政策的经济影响:以广东省为例   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
通过构建广东省两区域动态模型,对广东省碳交易及其他政策措施进行定量评估,分析实施可调控总量的碳交易政策机制对广东省及参与交易部门的经济影响。研究结果表明,按照减排情景到2015年广东完成19.5%的碳强度下降目标,相比基准情景,GDP将减少0.7%;按照强减排情景到2015年将完成20.5%的碳强度下降目标,相比基准情景GDP将减少0.9%;如果在强减排情景的基础上实施碳交易政策,GDP相对基准情景减少0.8%,到2015年实施碳交易政策可减少GDP损失约90亿元,说明广东建立碳排放权交易机制能够发挥支持经济发展和节能减碳双赢的作用。  相似文献   

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