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1.
ENSO Events Recorded in the Guliya Ice Core   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  
Based on the ENSO chronology and climatic information recovered from the Guliya ice core in the Tibetan Plateau, China, the ENSO teleconnection was investigated. The results showed that the negative precipitation anomalies are significantly associated with El Niño years but poorly with negative anomaly of 18O. Thus, the ice core records can be used as an archive of extremely global climate anomalies such as ENSO events.  相似文献   

2.
Maintaining a multi-model database over a generation or more of model development provides an important framework for assessing model improvement. Using control integrations, we compare the simulation of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its extratropical impact, in models developed for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report with models developed in the late 1990s [the so-called Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-2 (CMIP2) models]. The IPCC models tend to be more realistic in representing the frequency with which ENSO occurs, and they are better at locating enhanced temperature variability over the eastern Pacific Ocean. When compared with reanalyses, the IPCC models have larger pattern correlations of tropical surface air temperature than do the CMIP2 models during the boreal winter peak phase of El Niño. However, for sea-level pressure and precipitation rate anomalies, a clear separation in performance between the two vintages of models is not as apparent. The strongest improvement occurs for the modelling groups whose CMIP2 model tended to have the lowest pattern correlations with observations. This has been checked by subsampling the multi-century IPCC simulations in a manner to be consistent with the single 80-year time segment available from CMIP2. Our results suggest that multi-century integrations may be required to statistically assess model improvement of ENSO. The quality of the El Niño precipitation composite is directly related to the fidelity of the boreal winter precipitation climatology, highlighting the importance of reducing systematic model error. Over North America distinct improvement of El Niño forced boreal winter surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and precipitation rate anomalies to occur in the IPCC models. This improvement is directly proportional to the skill of the tropical El Niño forced precipitation anomalies.  相似文献   

3.
Historical ENSO teleconnections in the eastern hemisphere   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Examination of instrumental data collected over the last one hundred years or so shows that rainfall fluctuations in various parts of the eastern hemisphere are associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Using proxy rainfall data-sets from Indonesia, Africa, North China; and a chronology of droughts from India, we investigate the occurrence of ENSO-related floods and droughts over the last five hundred years. The aim of this work is to examine the stability of the pattern of ENSO teleconnections over this longer period, noting any changes in ENSO behaviour which may be relevant in estimating its future behaviour, such as its response to climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect.Comparisons of the various data sets with each other and with El Niño chronology from South America, showed statistically significant evidence of teleconnections characteristic of ENSO back to around 1750. Prior to that time, relationships characteristic of ENSO were weak or absent. The disappearance of the ENSO signal in the early period is considered to be most likely due to the poorer quality of the data at that time. From the 18th Century onwards, chronologies of ENSO and anti-ENSO events are given and compared with similar chronologies in the literature.  相似文献   

4.
ENSO及其组合模态对中国东部各季节降水的影响   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  
近期的研究发现,热带太平洋低层大气存在两种主要模态,即经向对称ENSO模态和ENSO与海表温度(SST)年循环相互作用产生的经向反对称组合模态。主要探讨了这两种不同ENSO模态对中国东部各季节降水的影响。结果表明,厄尔尼诺年秋季,中国西南、长江及华南大部分区域呈现显著正降水异常;冬季,正降水异常范围扩大,覆盖华南、华东及华北东南部地区。这两个季节的异常降水都主要受ENSO模态的影响。与ENSO模态相关的正异常海温局地强迫导致120°E以西出现反气旋性环流,其西北侧增强的西南暖湿气流使得中国东部地区降水增多。次年春季,从中国华南延伸到东北出现正的异常降水,主要是ENSO组合模态的贡献。因为次年春季热带太平洋地区ENSO模态信号只局限于赤道地区,并没有对中国东部降水有显著的影响,而ENSO与海温年循环相互作用的组合模态使得与ENSO相关的赤道大气异常可以扩展到赤道以外地区。ENSO组合模态对中国降水异常有重要影响,在今后的研究和短期预测中需引起重视。   相似文献   

5.
In this modelling study, the teleconnections of ENSO are studied using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), HadAM3. The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) remote from the tropical Pacific but teleconnected with ENSO is investigated. Composite cycles of El Niño and La Niña SSTs are created and imposed on HadAM3. These SSTs are imposed in different areas, with climatological SSTs elsewhere, in order to find the influences of SSTs in different regions. It is found that most of the reproducible response to ENSO is forced directly from the tropical Pacific before the peak of the event. However, during the peak and decay of ENSO, remote SSTs become increasingly influential throughout the tropics (at the 98% significance level). This could lead to extended ENSO-related predictability due to the memory of the remote oceans. The Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent SSTs are found to be particularly influential. Indian Ocean SSTAs dampen the teleconnections from the tropical Pacific and force the atmosphere above the tropical Atlantic. More generally, when a tropical SSTA is imposed, atmospheric anomalies are forced locally with anomalies of the opposite sign to the west. Some of the reproducible response to ENSO in the tropical Atlantic is forced, not directly from the tropical Pacific but from the Indian ocean, which in turn is forced by the tropical Pacific. Subsequently, delayed SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic damp the local response and force the atmosphere above the tropical Pacific in the opposite manner.  相似文献   

6.
The potential for the mean climate of the tropical Pacific to shift to more El Niño-like conditions as a result of human induced climate change is subject to a considerable degree of uncertainty. The complexity of the feedback processes, the wide range of responses of different atmosphere–ocean global circulation models (AOGCMs) and difficulties with model simulation of present day El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO), all complicate the picture. By examining the components of the climate-change response that projects onto the model pattern of ENSO variability in 20 AOGCMs submitted to the coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP), it is shown that large-scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedbacks associated with the present day ENSO also operate on longer climate-change time scales. By linking the realism of the simulation of present day ENSO variability in the models to their patterns of future mean El Niño-like or La Niña-like climate change, it is found that those models that have the largest ENSO-like climate change also have the poorest simulation of ENSO variability. The most likely scenario (p=0.59) in a model-skill-weighted histogram of CMIP models is for no trend towards either mean El Niño-like or La Niña-like conditions. However, there remains a small probability (p=0.16) for a change to El Niño-like conditions of the order of one standard El Niño per century in the 1% per year CO2 increase scenario.  相似文献   

7.
Summary Two lines of research into climate change and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) converge on the conclusion that changes in ENSO statistics occur as a response to global climate (temperature) fluctuations. One approach focuses on the statistics of temperature fluctuations interpreted within the framework of random walks. The second is based on the discovery of correlation between the recurrence frequency of El Niño and temperature change, while developing physical arguments to explain several phenomena associated with changes in El Niño frequency. Consideration of both perspectives leads to greater confidence in, and guidance for, the physical interpretation of the relationship between ENSO and global climate change. Topics considered include global dynamics of ENSO, ENSO triggers, and climate prediction and predictability.Revised November 14, 2002; accepted November 28, 2002 Published online: June 12, 2003  相似文献   

8.
The Paraná-Plata basin is the second largest hydrological basin in South America and is of great importance for the countries of the region (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). The present study focuses on the long-term trends in basin-scale precipitation with special emphasis on the role of distribution changes in extreme large-scale precipitation events and on the characteristics and evolution of ENSO teleconnections over the last 50 years. First, we defined a Paraná-Plata basin total precipitation index (PTPI) as the precipitations spatially averaged over the hydrological basin. On interannual time scales, such an index is mainly representative of anomalous monsoon precipitations in the northern part of the basin and large convective precipitation anomalies in the center of the basin (Paraguay-southern Brazil-Uruguay-northern Argentina) typical of the canonical ENSO teleconnection pattern. Our major findings clearly highlight a positive trend in yearly averaged PTPI mainly from the late 1960s to the early 1980s with a strong dependence from month-to-month. The largest precipitation increase is observed from November to May in southern Brazil and Argentina. A close examination of PTPI distributions during the two halves of the period 1950–2001 shows that the changes in the mean state from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001 result from significant changes in each calendar month mean state and in the tails of the PTPI anomaly distributions in May with lesser and weaker large-scale dry events and stronger large-scale wet events. Further studies will be needed to assess whether the observed trend in large-scale extreme precipitation conditions can be related to natural climate variability or anthropogenic activities and whether it is associated to changes in local/regional extreme events. The stronger wet conditions in different months seem to be associated to changes in ENSO characteristics (amplitude, propagation, spatial structure, ...) since the 1982–1983 El Niño. Indeed, spatial ENSO teleconnections (stronger in November and April–May) have greatly evolved from 1950–1975 to 1976–2001. Moreover, we demonstrate that there is a strong modulation and displacement of the teleconnection patterns from one event to another, impeding the definition of robust statistical relationship between ENSO and precipitation in the Paraná-Plata basin (except maybe over a very limited area near the common border between Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil). Finally, the non-antisymmetrical patterns of precipitation between El Niño and La Niña conditions and the non-linear relationship between precipitation and either Niño3.4 or Niño1+2 sea surface temperature indices show that linear statistical forecast systems are actually of very limited use for impact predictions on society on a local or regional scale.  相似文献   

9.
The NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climatemodel is forced with globally observed sea-surfacetemperatures (SST) in five simulations, 1969–1991,with individual runs beginning from altered initialatmospheric conditions. The interannual variability ofmodeled anomalies of the Southern Oscillation Index,mid-tropospheric temperatures, 850 mb zonal winds andOutgoing Longwave Radiation over the tropical PacificOcean, which has the largest SST anomaly forcing, arestrongly correlated with observed trends which reflectENSO cycles. The model's rainfall variability overthree agriculturally intensive regions, two tropicaland one mid-latitude, is investigated in order toevaluate the potential usefulness of GCM predictionsfor agricultural planning. The correct sign ofZimbabwe seasonal precipitation anomalies was hindcastwithin a useful range of consensus only for selectseasons corresponding to extreme ENSO events for whichanomalous circulation patterns were ratherrealistically simulated. The correlation betweenhindcasts of Nordeste monthly precipitation andobservations increases with time smoothing, reaching0.64 for 5-month running means. Consensus betweenindividual runs is directly proportional to theabsolute value of Niño3 SST so that during ElNiño and La Niña years most simulations agreeon the sign of predicted Nordeste rainfall anomalies.We show that during selected seasons the uppertropospheric divergent circulation and near surfacemeridional displacements of the ITCZ are realisticallyrepresented by the ensemble mean of the simulations.This realistic simulation of both the synopticmechanisms and the resulting precipitation changesincreases confidence in the GCM's potential forseasonal climate prediction.  相似文献   

10.
Summary The precipitation variability over South America south of 20°S (SA20S) has been investigated at a decadal (DD) and non-DD time scales. The results suggest that the space-time particularities of the ENSO-related precipitation anomalous patterns depend on the time scales considered. The precipitation patterns in the SA20S associated with the non-DD episodes exhibit a space-time coherent characteristics during ONDJ (0)–JJAS (+1) period such that a prominent area of positive (negative) anomalies is observed in the central SA20S and displaced northeastward with the time for the non-DD El Niños (La Niñas). On the other hand, the precipitation anomalous patterns associated with the DD episodes feature more complex horizontal structures and larger anomalies than those of the non-decadal episodes. It is also worthwhile noting that the SA20S climate experiences the strongest and more extensive effects of the DD episode during the austral summer of the year following the onset of the DD episodes.Received October 10, 2002; accepted December 12, 2002 Published online: May 8, 2003  相似文献   

11.
A. Wu  W. W. Hsieh 《Climate Dynamics》2003,21(7-8):719-730
Nonlinear interdecadal changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are investigated using several tools: a nonlinear canonical correlation analysis (NLCCA) method based on neural networks, a hybrid coupled model, and the delayed oscillator theory. The leading NLCCA mode between the tropical Pacific wind stress (WS) and sea surface temperature (SST) reveals notable interdecadal changes of ENSO behaviour before and after the mid 1970s climate regime shift, with greater nonlinearity found during 1981–99 than during 1961–75. Spatial asymmetry (for both SST and WS anomalies) between warm El Niño and cool La Niña events was significantly enhanced in the later period. During 1981–99, the location of the equatorial easterly anomalies was unchanged from the earlier period, but in the opposite ENSO phase, the westerly anomalies were shifted eastward by up to 25°. According to the delayed oscillator theory, such an eastward shift would lengthen the duration of the warm events by up to 45%, but leave the duration of the cool events unchanged. Supporting evidence was found from a hybrid coupled model built with the Lamont dynamical ocean model coupled to a statistical atmospheric model consisting of either the leading NLCCA or CCA mode.  相似文献   

12.
Observations indicated that for the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) there have been eastward displacements of the zonal wind stress (WS) anomalies and surface heat flux (short wave heat flux and latent heat flux) anomalies during El Niño episodes in the 1981–1995 regime relative to the earlier regime of 1961–1975 (without corresponding displacements during La Niña episodes). Our numerical experiments with the Zebiak–Cane coupled model generally reproduced such displacements when the model climatological fields were replaced by the observed climatologies [of sea surface temperature (SST), surface WS and surface wind atmospheric divergence] and simulated climatologies (of oceanic surface layer currents and associated upwelling) for the 1981–1995 regime. Sensitivity tests indicated that the background atmospheric state played a much more important role than the background ocean state in producing the displacements, which enhanced the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña in the later regime. The later regime climatology state resulted in the eastward shifts in the ENSO system (WS and SST) only during El Niño, through the eastward shift of the atmosphere convergence heating rate in the coupled model. The ENSO period and ENSO predictability were also enhanced in the coupled model under the later regime climatology. That the change in the mean state of the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean after the mid 1970s could have produced the observed changes in ENSO properties is consistent with our findings.  相似文献   

13.
A nonlinear projection of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) onto the Northern Hemisphere winter sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies by neural networks (NN) was performed to investigate the nonlinear association between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Euro-Atlantic winter climate. While the linear impact of ENSO on the Euro-Atlantic winter SLP is weak, the NN projection reveals statistically significant SLP anomalies over the Euro-Atlantic sector during both extreme cold and warm ENSO episodes, suggesting that the Euro-Atlantic climate mainly responds to ENSO nonlinearly. The nonlinear response, mainly a quadratic response to the SSTA, reveals that regardless of the sign of the SSTA, positive SLP anomalies are found over the North Atlantic, stretching from eastern Canada to Europe (with anomaly center located just northwestward of Portugal), and negative anomalies centered over Scandinavia and Norwegian Sea, consistent with the excitation of the positive North Atlantic Oscillation pattern.  相似文献   

14.
Anticipating and mitigating wave-related hazards rely heavily on understanding wave variability drivers. Here, we describe wave conditions related to concurrent Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases during the austral summer. To identify such conditions, significant wave height (Hs) and peak wave period (Tp) daily anomalies were composited during different SAM–ENSO phase combinations over the last four decades (1979–2018). Surface wind anomalies were also composited to assist in the interpretation of wave conditions. The composites show significant wave variability across all ocean basins and in several semi-enclosed seas throughout the different SAM–ENSO phase combinations. The Southern, Indian, and Pacific Oceans generally experience the strongest Tp anomalies during combinations of SAM phases with El Niño, and the weakest Tp anomalies during combinations of SAM phases with La Niña. The anomalously large waves observed in the south-western Pacific, Tasman Sea, and the Southern Ocean, previously ascribed to ENSO conditions, seem to be instead associated with the SAM variability. SAM-related atmospheric conditions are found to be able to modulate the intensity of ENSO-related winds over the South China Sea, which, in turn, alter the magnitude of waves in that region. These and other wave anomaly structures described here, especially those contrasting the behaviour expected for a given ENSO phase, such as the one found along the California coast, stress the importance of understanding relationships between wave parameters and climate patterns interactions.  相似文献   

15.
Some argue that global climate change may alter the frequency and strength of extreme events. This paper examines the economic damages in the agricultural sector arising from a shift in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event frequency and strength. The assumptions about the frequency of ENSO shift are motivated by an article by Timmermann etal. (1999). The damage estimates reported here are in the context of the global agricultural system. Annual damages in the 3 to 4 hundred million U.S. dollar range are found if only the frequency of ENSO events changes. However, annual damages rise to over $1 billion if the events also intensify in strength. Event anticipation and crop mix adaption on the part of farmers can help offset the damages but cannot fully alleviate them.  相似文献   

16.
利用1979—2009年的NECP资料、Hadley海温月平均资料和CMAP降水资料,采用Kao and Yu(2009)的方法定义了夏季EP型ENSO指数EPI,用合成分析的方法分析了东部型ENSO与海洋性大陆降水的关系。结果表明:EPI与MC(Maritime Continent,海洋性大陆)区域降水变化间存在非常弱的负相关。造成这一弱相关的原因是EPI与MC区域降水在某些年份存在同号变化。在剔除Nio4信号后,海洋性大陆区域降水序列与EPI与存在着同号和反号两种关系。反号关系是通常所认为的,当经典的El Nio(La Nia)发生时MC区域降水出现显著地减少(增多)。此时,沿赤道的异常Walker环流建立了EP型ENSO与MC区域气候间的直接联系。而在同号关系时,菲律宾以东异常加热和SPCZ区域异常冷却引起的西北—东南走向的垂直环流圈削弱了MC区域与赤道东太平洋之间的异常Walker环流所建立的直接联系,或者说,赤道东太平洋区域SSTA与MC区域降水异常的形成是通过SPCZ区域SST的反号异常而产生间接联系的。这种机制的揭示为深刻认识ENSO影响海洋性大陆区域甚至东亚地区气候变动的联系提供了新的线索。  相似文献   

17.
Since the devastating southern Africa drought of 1991/92 awareness has grown of the potential to better manage climate variability in the region through seasonal climate forecasting and monitoring of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While other factors besides ENSO affect southern Africa's climate, and climate forecasting for the region is not based exclusively on ENSO, a major El Niño beginning in 1997 captured the attention of policy-makers and the public. Awareness of drought risks associated with the 1997/98 event was greater than during previous El Niños in 1991/92 and 1994/95. Mitigation and planning efforts also began earlier, with drought early warnings widely available and being taken seriously prior to the 1997/98 agricultural season. Actions taken include issuance of guidance to the public, on-going monitoring and preparedness efforts including the development of national preparedness plans in some countries, pre-positioning of food stocks, donor coordination, and greater reliance on the private-sector for meeting regional food needs. Although 1998 regional crop production was slightly below average, a major drought did not materialize. Nonetheless the experience is likely to ultimately strengthen capacity within the region to manage climate variability over the long term.  相似文献   

18.
The safety of vulnerable coastal and offshore infrastructures requires an in-depth understanding of wave variability and climate drivers. We investigate the association of significant wave height (Hs) and peak wave period (Tp) with the co-occurrence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) at the global scale. We calculate composites of daily anomalies in modelled Hs, Tp, and surface wind for periods of ENSO–MJO phase combinations. Calculations spanned November–March seasons over the period 1979–2018. Wave anomalies are widespread across the world’s oceans, with remarkable strength during several ENSO–MJO phase combinations, demonstrating strong tropic–tropic and tropic-extratropic teleconnections. Positive Hs anomalies are strongest in the Pacific Ocean during El Niño–MJO phase 8, in the Atlantic Ocean during ENSO-neutral-MJO phase 3, and in the Indian Ocean during ENSO-neutral-MJO phase 4. Positive Tp anomalies are strongest in the Pacific Ocean during La Niña–MJO phase 8, in the Atlantic Ocean during El Niño–MJO phase 1, and in the Indian Ocean during El Niño–MJO phase 8. In the Southern Ocean, the strongest Hs anomalies occur during El Niño–MJO phase 8, whereas in the Maritime Continent, they appear during ENSO-neutral-MJO phases 5–6. Despite previous studies finding low correlations of ENSO indices with wave parameters in the North Atlantic, our results suggest that ENSO-related conditions play a significant role in the area when combined with certain MJO-related conditions. This study also reveals that the wave anomalies associated with ENSO–MJO phase combinations can be twice as strong as those found in previous work, related only to the MJO. Therefore, considering multiple concurrent climate patterns in the analysis of wave anomalies is essential to developing more reliable coastal management plans.  相似文献   

19.
A new hybrid coupled model(HCM) is presented in this study, which consists of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model. The ocean component is the intermediate ocean model(IOM)of the intermediate coupled model(ICM) used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences(IOCAS). The atmospheric component is ECHAM5, the fifth version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology atmospheric general circulation model. The HCM integrates its atmospheric and oceanic components by using an anomaly coupling strategy. A100-year simulation has been made with the HCM and its simulation skills are evaluated, including the interannual variability of SST over the tropical Pacific and the ENSO-related responses of the global atmosphere. The model shows irregular occurrence of ENSO events with a spectral range between two and five years. The amplitude and lifetime of ENSO events and the annual phase-locking of SST anomalies are also reproduced realistically. Despite the slightly stronger variance of SST anomalies over the central Pacific than observed in the HCM, the patterns of atmospheric anomalies related to ENSO,such as sea level pressure, temperature and precipitation, are in broad agreement with observations. Therefore, this model can not only simulate the ENSO variability, but also reproduce the global atmospheric variability associated with ENSO, thereby providing a useful modeling tool for ENSO studies. Further model applications of ENSO modulations by ocean–atmosphere processes, and of ENSO-related climate prediction, are also discussed.  相似文献   

20.
The focus of this study is to document the possible role of the southern subtropical Indian Ocean in the transitions of the monsoon-ENSO system during recent decades. Composite analyses of sea surface temperature (SST) fields prior to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian summer monsoon (ISM), Australian summer monsoon (AUSM), tropical Indian Ocean dipole (TIOD) and Maritime Continent rainfall (MCR) indices reveal the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) SSTs during late boreal winter as the unique common SST precursor of these various phenomena after the 1976–1977 regime shift. Weak (strong) ISMs and AUSMs, El Niños (La Niñas) and positive (negative) TIOD events are preceded by significant negative (positive) SST anomalies in the SEIO, off Australia during boreal winter. These SST anomalies are mainly linked to subtropical Indian Ocean dipole events, recently studied by Behera and Yamagata (Geophys Res Lett 28:327–330, 2001). A wavelet analysis of a February–March SEIO SST time series shows significant spectral peaks at 2 and 4–8 years time scales as for ENSO, ISM or AUSM indices. A composite analysis with respect to February–March SEIO SSTs shows that cold (warm) SEIO SST anomalies are highly persistent and affect the westward translation of the Mascarene high from austral to boreal summer, inducing a weakening (strengthening) of the whole ISM circulation through a modulation of the local Hadley cell during late boreal summer. At the same time, these subtropical SST anomalies and the associated SEIO anomalous anticyclone may be a trigger for both the wind-evaporation-SST and wind-thermocline-SST positive feedbacks between Australia and Sumatra during boreal spring and early summer. These positive feedbacks explain the extraordinary persistence of the SEIO anomalous anticyclone from boreal spring to fall. Meanwhile, the SEIO anomalous anticyclone favors persistent southeasterly wind anomalies along the west coast of Sumatra and westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific, which are well-known key factors for the evolution of positive TIOD and El Niño events, respectively. A correlation analysis supports these results and shows that SEIO SSTs in February–March has higher predictive skill than other well-established ENSO predictors for forecasting Niño3.4 SST at the end of the year. This suggests again that SEIO SST anomalies exert a fundamental influence on the transitions of the whole monsoon-ENSO system during recent decades.  相似文献   

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