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1.
Concurrence of low temperature,precipitation and freezing weather in an extensive area would cause devastating impacts on local economy and society.We call such a combination of concurrent disastrous weather“extensive coldprecipitation-freezing”events(ECPFEs).In this study,the ECPFEs in southern China(15°?35°N,102°?123°E)are objectively defined by using daily surface observational data for the period 1951?2013.An ECPFE in southern China is defined if the low temperature area,precipitation area and freezing area concurrently exceed their respective thresholds for at least three consecutive days.The identified ECPFEs are shown to be reasonable and reliable,compared with those in previous studies.The circulation anomalies in ECPFEs are characterized by a large-scale tilted ridge and trough pairing over mid-and high-latitude Eurasia,and the intensified subtropical westerlies along the southern foot of the Tibetan Plateau and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the subtropical western Pacific.Comparative analysis reveals that the stable cold air from the north and the warm and moist air from the south converge,facilitating a favorable environment for the concurrence of extensive low-temperature,precipitation and freezing weather.  相似文献   

2.
In this paper,we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature(EASAT)and EASAT decadal prediction.The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT(EAmSAT)display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60-80-year multidecadal variability,apart from a long-term warming trend.The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades,which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years.The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years.Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability,but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT.We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge(COAB)mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism,with good hindcast performance.The winter EASAT for 2020-34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until~2025,implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia,followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming.The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.  相似文献   

3.
In this paper,the forecasting equations of a 2nd-order space-time differential remainder are deduced from the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and Eulerian operator by Taylor-series expansion.Here we introduce a cubic spline numerical model(Spline Model for short),which is with a quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme of fitting cubic spline/bicubic surface to all physical variable fields in the atmospheric equations on spherical discrete latitude-longitude mesh.A new algorithm of"fitting cubic spline—time step integration—fitting cubic spline—……"is developed to determine their first-and2nd-order derivatives and their upstream points for time discrete integral to the governing equations in Spline Model.And the cubic spline function and its mathematical polarities are also discussed to understand the Spline Model’s mathematical foundation of numerical analysis.It is pointed out that the Spline Model has mathematical laws of"convergence"of the cubic spline functions contracting to the original functions as well as its 1st-order and 2nd-order derivatives.The"optimality"of the 2nd-order derivative of the cubic spline functions is optimal approximation to that of the original functions.In addition,a Hermite bicubic patch is equivalent to operate on a grid for a 2nd-order derivative variable field.Besides,the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are identified respectively,with a smoothing coefficient of 1/3,three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline.Then the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are calculated from the smoothing coefficient 1/3 and three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline,respectively.Furthermore,a global simulation case of adiabatic,non-frictional and"incompressible"model atmosphere is shown with the quasi-Lagrangian time integration by using a global Spline Model,whose initial condition comes from the NCEP reanalysis data,along with quasi-uniform latitude-longitude grids and the so-called"shallow atmosphere"Navier-Stokes primitive equations in the spherical coordinates.The Spline Model,which adopted the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme,provides an initial ideal case of global atmospheric circulation.In addition,considering the essentially non-linear atmospheric motions,the Spline Model could judge reasonably well simple points of any smoothed variable field according to its fitting spline curvatures that must conform to its physical interpretation.  相似文献   

4.
利用洛阳市环境监测资料和气象资料,分析了洛阳市污染物浓度的日变化、季节变化、年际变化规律,并分析了污染物浓度与气象因子的关系.在此基础上,通过回归分析预报方法、污染潜势预报方法、CAPPS模式预报方法对洛阳市3种主要污染物的浓度和级别进行了24 h和48 h预测,并建立了气象局与环保部门共享的气象和污染数据库平台,为双方今后的合作奠定了基础.  相似文献   

5.
The classification of the Northeast China Cold Vortex(NCCV)activity paths is an important way to analyze its characteristics in detail.Based on the daily precipitation data of the northeastern China(NEC)region,and the atmospheric circulation field and temperature field data of ERA-Interim for every six hours,the NCCV processes during the early summer(June)seasons from 1979 to 2018 were objectively identified.Then,the NCCV processes were classified using a machine learning method(k-means)according to the characteristic parameters of the activity path information.The rationality of the classification results was verified from two aspects,as follows:(1)the atmospheric circulation configuration of the NCCV on various paths;and(2)its influences on the climate conditions in the NEC.The obtained results showed that the activity paths of the NCCV could be divided into four types according to such characteristics as the generation origin,movement direction,and movement velocity of the NCCV.These included the generation-eastward movement type in the east of the Mongolia Plateau(eastward movement type or type A);generation-southeast longdistance movement type in the upstream of the Lena River(southeast long-distance movement type or type B);generationeastward less-movement type near Lake Baikal(eastward less-movement type or type C);and the generation-southward less-movement type in eastern Siberia(southward less-movement type or type D).There were obvious differences observed in the atmospheric circulation configuration and the climate impact of the NCCV on the four above-mentioned types of paths,which indicated that the classification results were reasonable.  相似文献   

6.
We present a230Th-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope(δ^18O)record from Loushanguan Cave in the Yangtze River valley,China.The^δ18O record,if viewed as a proxy of the Asian summer monsoon(ASM)intensity,provides an ASM history for the early Holocene with clear centennial-scale variability.A significant approximately 200-yr cycle between 10.2 and 9.1 ka BP(before present,where"present"is defined as the year AD 1950),as revealed by spectral power analyses,is of global significance and is probably forced by the Suess or de Vries cycle of solar activity.Here,we explore a physical mechanism to explain the relationship between the solar activity and the ASM.A strong coherence between the ASM and El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)has been observed by performing crosswavelet analyses on this cycle.Our study suggests that a strong(weak)ASM state corresponds to a warm(cold)ENSO,which is consistent with modern meteorological observations but contrasts with previous studies on regions far from the Meiyu rainbelt.We argue that the centennial fluctuations of the ASM are a fundamental characteristic forced by the solar activity,with the ENSO variability as a mediator.The relationship between ENSO and the ASM displayed spatial heterogeneity on the centennial scale during the early Holocene,which is a more direct analogue to the observed modern interannual variability of the ASM.  相似文献   

7.
The mei-yu front heavy rainstorms occurred over Nanjing on 3 5 and 8 9 July 2003 and were simulated in this paper using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRFv3.1) with various mesoscale convection parameterization schemes (MCPSs). The simulations show that the temporal and spatial evolution and distribution of rainstorms can be modeled; however, there was incongruity between the comparative simulations of four different MCPSs and the observed data. These disparities were exhibited in the simulations of both the 24-hour surface rainfall total and the hourly precipitation rate. Further analysis revealed that the discrepancies of vertical velocity and the convective vorticity vector (CVV) between the four simulations were attributed to the deviation of rainfall values. In addition, the simulations show that the mid-scale convection, particularly the mesoscale convection system (MCS) formation, can be well simulated with the proper mesoscale convection parameterization schemes and may be a crucial factor of the mei-yu front heavy rainstorm. These results suggest that, in an effort to enhance simulation and prediction of heavy rainfall and rainstorms, subsequent studies should focus on the development and improvement of MCPS.  相似文献   

8.
春季南极涛动对北美夏季风的影响   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
This study examined the relationship between the boreal spring(April?May) Antarctic Oscillation(AAO) and the North American summer monsoon(NASM)(July?September) for the period of 1979?2008.The results show that these two systems are closely related.When the spring AAO was stronger than normal,the NASM tended to be weaker,and there was less rainfall over the monsoon region.The opposite NASM situation corresponded to a weaker spring AAO.Further analysis explored the possible mechanism for the delayed impact of the boreal spring AAO on the NASM.It was found that the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST) plays an important role in the connection between the two phenomena.The variability of the boreal spring AAO can produce anomalous SSTs over the tropical Atlantic.These SST anomalies can persist from spring to summer and can influence the Bermuda High,affecting water vapor transportation to the monsoon region.Through these processes,the boreal spring AAO exerts a significantly delayed impact on the amount of NASM precipitation.Thus,information about the boreal spring AAO is valuable for the prediction of the NASM.  相似文献   

9.
Explosive cyclones(ECs)over two basins in the Northern Hemisphere(20°-90°N)from January 1979 to December2016 are investigated using ERA-Interim and Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature(OISST)data.The classical definition of an EC is modified considering not only the rapid drop of the central sea level pressure of the cyclone,but also the strong wind speed at the height of 10 m in which maximum wind speeds greater than 17.2 m s^-1are included.According to the locations of the northern Atlantic and northern Pacific,the whole Northern Hemisphere is divided into the"A region"(20°-90°N,90°W-90°E)and"P region"(20°-90°N,90°E-90°W).Over both the A and P regions,the climatological features of ECs,such as their spatial distribution,intensity,seasonal variation,interannual variation,and moving tracks,are documented.  相似文献   

10.
内政公报     
第八卷第十五期已出版本公报自十四期起改月刊内分总务民政警政土地丰俗统计卫生等项材料新颖内容充实无论团体个人均有订阅之必要每册大洋四角半年六册大洋贰元全年十二册大洋四元邮票十足通用国内邮费免收国外照加  相似文献   

11.
一次江淮暴雨中中尺度低涡的数值模拟及分析   总被引:6,自引:3,他引:6  
利用MM5模式对2003年7月4—5日一次江淮梅雨暴雨过程进行了数值模拟。分析表明:暴雨与江淮地区对流层中低层中尺度低涡的发生发展有密切关系。中尺度低涡与中尺度雨团相伴移动,低涡强度与雨强的演变近于一致;低涡中心的强上升运动及低层辐合、高层辐散的配置有利于中尺度对流系统的发生发展;低涡低层有不稳定能量的积聚。应用螺旋度理论分析指出,较大的螺旋度是对流层中低层低涡发生和发展的一种有利机制。  相似文献   

12.
一次局地大暴雨过程的数值模拟和诊断分析   总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14  
采用中尺度数值模式MM5(V3)对2002年8月15-16日发生在江苏启东附近的一次局地大暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,较好地模拟出了本次过程的暴雨中心落区和降水量,以及相关的中尺度系统的发生、发展过程.探讨了中尺度涡旋、局地环流对这次暴雨过程的影响,结果表明,中尺度涡旋对暴雨的发生起了至关重要的作用,局地环流的存在,也有利于降水的发生.  相似文献   

13.
"99.8"山东特大暴雨形成机制的数值模拟分析   总被引:11,自引:9,他引:11  
利用双重嵌套的非静力数值模式MM5V3,成功地模拟了1999年8月11~12日山东诸城发生的特大暴雨。利用模式输出的高时空分辨率资料,对这次暴雨天气及中尺度低涡的形成机制进行了诊断分析。结果表明,这次特大暴雨是在弱冷空气侵入台风低压环流,热带辐合带北伸的形势下形成的;倾斜涡度发展是特大暴雨及中尺度低涡产生、发展的重要机制,鲁东南有利的地形对中尺度低涡的形成具有重要作用;台风低压倒槽顶部的强辐合作用首先触发上升运动,产生强降水,强降水位于低层气旋性暖式切变最明显的地方;强降水释放的凝结潜热使高层气层增暖,高层辐散加强,引起低层中尺度低涡强烈发展,导致降水增幅。可见,CISK机制是特大暴雨和中尺度低涡加强的另一种机制。  相似文献   

14.
贵州大暴雨个例形成机制数值模拟   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
利用3层嵌套的中尺度数值模式MM5 V3.5,模拟了2007年6月24~25日发生在贵州中南部的一次大暴雨过程.利用模式输出的高分辨率资料,对这次暴雨天气及中尺度低涡的形成机制进行了诊断分析.模式较成功地模拟出了中尺度系统的演变和降水的分布特征.中尺度低涡的发展、稳定维持是造成贵州这次大暴雨天气的直接原因.暴雨、大暴雨出现在低涡的西南侧.在低层正涡度、辐合、强烈的上升运动和高层负涡度、辐散的有利配置下,形成深厚的上升运动柱,这种中尺度动力配置结构,不仅与暴雨区和暴雨发生时段相对应,而且是引起此次暴雨的中尺度低涡发展和持续的动力机制之一.暴雨区与强烈上升运动区,正涡度区相对应.  相似文献   

15.
利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料、地面与探空资料、卫星资料等,对2012年5月12日发生在江西省中部的一次暴雨过程进行诊断分析。结果表明:本次暴雨过程发生在冷锋南侧地面倒槽区,由高层西风槽、低层低空急流及切变线、低涡共同影响所致。中低层西南气流的加强,一方面使暴雨区有充足的水汽输送,同时也使该区对流不稳定度加大,加强了暴雨区上空的对流上升运动。中尺度辐合线是强对流暴雨的触发机制,而冷锋影响使地面东风气流加强,冷空气入侵致中尺度辐合线演变为中尺度低压,中尺度低压是江西短时强降水长时间持续的机制;500hPa高空槽东移,槽前正涡度平流向江西上空输送,利于低层低涡生成和维持、上升运动加强,从而导致降水增强。冷空气影响初始阶段,〉10mm·h-1 的中尺度雨团产生在中尺度辐合线及其所演变成低压的1、2象限即中尺度辐合线或中尺度低压偏北一侧,随着冷空气的进一步入侵,中尺度雨团产生于中尺度低压的偏南一侧。  相似文献   

16.
利用NCEP1°×1°再分析资料、卫星云图TBB资料和逐小时地面降水资料对2012年7月12~13日发生在湖北东部地区一次大暴雨过程进行了分析,结果表明:(1)在华北横槽转竖带动冷空气南下的过程中,中低层有中尺度低涡的发生发展,中尺度低涡的稳定维持与副高外围西南暖湿气流共同作用,导致了这次强降雨的发生。(2)鄂东强降水主要由两个中尺度暴雨云团影响,前一个暴雨云团为MCC,受副高外围西南气流向偏东方向移动,后一个暴雨云团受冷空气影响向东南方向移动。(3)低层露点锋与本次强降水天气过程的发生发展有较好的对应,锋区北侧偏北气流穿越露点锋,使得低层气旋式涡度增大、辐合加强。(4)本次过程干湿空气的相互作用形成能量锋区,锋区的维持和加强导致了强降水的发生。   相似文献   

17.
王欢  倪允琪 《气象学报》2006,64(6):734-742
2003年7月4—5日淮河流域发生了一次中尺度强暴雨过程,致使淮河洪水泛滥。这次暴雨过程由中尺度对流系统(MCS)以及因其发展而产生的低涡造成。通过对此次过程的诊断分析和新一代细网格WRF中尺度预报模式的数值模拟,研究了这次过程发生发展的机制。模拟结果较好地描述了本次暴雨及中尺度系统发生、发展的时空演变过程。分析结果表明:此次移动性暴雨过程的前期由不断向东移动发展的MCS造成,后期降水则由低涡切变线产生的中尺度低涡引起。同时,副热带高压明显偏西偏北,并维持较长时间,造成雨带一直维持在淮河流域。高层辐合中心的加强使低空急流不断增强,低空急流的增强进而引起低层辐合的加强,而低层辐合的加强以及上升运动的潜热释放导致低涡的发生,低涡形成及形成后移动缓慢,造成了淮河流域的大暴雨。高层中尺度辐散区的抽吸对低层中尺度涡旋的发生发展起到了促进和加强的作用。低层的中尺度辐合场和高层的中尺度辐散场的发展与耦合对中尺度系统的发展有很好的预示作用。低层中尺度辐合区的减弱预示着系统的衰减,西南偏西的中层相对干冷空气侵入并在梅雨锋前缘下沉促进了系统的衰减。  相似文献   

18.
江淮梅雨锋强暴雨低涡系统发生发展的数值研究   总被引:16,自引:2,他引:14  
利用美国新一代中尺度WRF(Weather Research and Forecast)模式,采用高分辨率的细网格距和适当的物理方案,对2003年7月4—5日的江淮梅雨锋强暴雨中尺度系统进行了数值模拟研究。模拟结果很好地描述了本次暴雨及其中尺度系统发生、发展的时空演变过程,并较理想地预报出了该次降水的落区、强度及降水中心的位置。着重分析了低空急流、倾斜不稳定发展及中尺度低涡系统和对流层高层小扰动,并进一步指出了其形成、发展的物理机制。从数值模拟分析结果看,倾斜垂直涡度的发展是造成低空涡旋生成和发展的动力机制。充足的湿有效能量和凝结潜热的释放为本次大降水过程提供了物质条件。  相似文献   

19.
李平  官莉  黄勇  翟菁 《辽宁气象》2011,(6):20-27
利用LAPS系统融合分析资料对安徽沿淮一次短时暴雨过程进行中尺度天气分析,探讨降水过程成因机制及天气结构特点,同时验证LAPS分析资料的实用性。结果表明:过程主要影响系统为中尺度气旋式涡旋,其向安徽北部沿淮地区移动为暴雨的发生、发展提供了触发机制。雷达降水回波主要出现在850hPa中尺度涡旋南侧以及700hPa槽前西南气流辐合上升运动过程中,持续的低空急流及其带来的水汽共同为暴雨过程提供了水汽条件和动力机制。比较雷达回波发展和云中液态水含量演变发现,云中液态水含量极大值区多出现在雷达回波单体的新生区域,借助于LAPS云中液态水含量分布结果对预测雷迭回波发展趋势及降水分布有借鉴作用。  相似文献   

20.
The cumulus merging processes in generating the mesoscale convective system (MCS) on 23 August 2001 in the Beijing region are studied by using a cloud-resolving mesoscale model of MM5. The results suggest that the merger processes occurred among isolated convective cells formed in high mountain region during southerly moving process play critical role in forming MCS and severe precipitating weather events such as hailfall, heavy rain, downburst and high-frequency lightning in the region. The formation of the MCS experiences multi-scale merging processes from single-cell scale merging to cloud cluster-scale merging, and high core merging. The merger process can apparently alter cloud dynamical and microphysical properties through enhancing both low- and middle-level forcing. Also, lightning flash rates are enhanced by the production of more intense and deeper convective cells by the merger process, especially by which, the more graupel-like ice particles are formed in clouds. The explosive convective development and the late peak lightning flash rate can be found during merging process.  相似文献   

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