共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
利用中尺度天气预报模式WRF耦合小尺度诊断风场模型CALMET进行降尺度风场模拟,模拟了2016年12月—2017年2月覆盖关中盆地中部典型天气条件下的1km×1km空间分辨率风场,用气象站观测值与模拟值进行对比分析,对模拟时段和典型天气过程期间关中盆地中部近地面风场特征进行了分析,结果表明:(1)模拟风速、风向与实测风速、风向均基本一致,模拟风场可代表关中盆地中部的真实风场。(2)关中地区风速主要分布在1.6~3.3m/s和0.3~1.5m/s风速区间,风速较小;关中地区除南部由于受秦岭地形的影响以南风和西风为主,其余地区均以东北风为主。(3)当风速较小、天气形势较为稳定时,容易在关中地区中南部出现气流的辐合,不利于污染物的扩散;当风速较大、风场气流较为平整时,扩散条件较好,有利于污染物的扩散。 相似文献
2.
本文通过分析"神舟六号"飞船着陆时期WRF模式对主着陆场区的风场及其影响系统的模拟结果, 发现WRF模式对主着陆场区的地面风速、风向的预报,WRF模式输出的850 hPa 模拟风场对100 m高度以下浅层风的最大风速及其风向的预报,结果均比较理想;WRF模式输出的300 hPa 高度风速、风向的模拟结果和急流轴的强度、位置模拟结果,与高空7～12 km最大风速及其风向的相关性较好,可作为预报指标;模式对风场的主要影响系统东北低压加深东移和蒙古高压的演变模拟基本准确.本模式能够作为未来客观预报主着陆场区地面和高空风场一种新的技术手段和工具. 相似文献
3.
对2017年春季黑龙江省大、小兴安岭林区的6个代表站点10 m风场进行降尺度分析,并结合观测数据对比分析了WRF模式和CALMET降尺度模式的10 m风速、风向预报结果。结果表明：两模式逐小时风速预报与观测的相关系数为0.5-0.7,且随着风速的增加,模式的预报准确率逐渐提高,夜间的风速预报偏差较大,进入白天后,偏差明显减小。WRF模式对风速变化趋势的预报效果优于CALMET模式,与观测的风速相关性更高,而CALMET模式对较大风速的预报效果优于WRF模式。在风向预报方面,WRF和CALMET的风向模拟与观测风向均有较好的一致性,模式预报准确率较高的两个风向也刚好对应各站的盛行风向。同时,本文用回归方法对日平均风速进行订正发现,订正后各站的日平均风速预报准确率平均提高了50%,具有较好的业务应用价值。 相似文献
4.
利用以中尺度数值模式WRF/CALMET作为风电场预报系统的动力模块,及BP神经网络法(BP-ANN)作为风电场预报系统的统计订正方法,对重庆市齐跃山风电场进行了一次时间分辨率为5 min的24 h风速、风功率的滚动预报试验,探讨了适用于中国典型内陆山区的风电场预报系统。结果显示:以WRF/CALMET/BP组成的动力—统计预报系统能够较好地模拟出内陆山区的风场特征,系统对正午至傍晚时段的风速预报准确率较高。WRF/CALMET动力模式对于风速中心振幅的模拟能力较好,经过BP神经网络订正后,模拟结果会趋于均值。不同风速段中,模式对低风速段(3~8 m·s^(-1))的预报效果较好,BP神经网络对中风速段(8~14 m·s^(-1))预报结果的订正效果最明显。 相似文献
5.
为了实现更准确的站点风预报,结合中尺度数值模式WRF预报结果和自动气象站观测数据,采用反距离加权插值法,将模式网格和观测站点的数据进行融合构建训练集,利用3种机器学习方法对WRF预报的风场结果进行订正,优化风场预报准确率。其中随机森林模型实现风速的预报均方根误差(RMSE)平均降低了18.22%,风向降低了15.97%;LightGBM模型对于风速、风向的RMSE平均降低了18.60%和17.56%;深度神经网络模型对于风速、风向的RMSE平均降低了5.53%和9.10%。对2020年宁波市9个大风过程进行检验,利用LightGBM模型对于3个站点预报进行订正,结果表明风速的RMSE从4.61 m/s下降到2.14 m/s,平均降低了53.58%,风向的RMSE从30.31°下降到18.20°,平均降低了39.95%。 相似文献
6.
利用中尺度气象数值模式WRF和动力降尺度模式CALMET,对江西山地风电场不同高度层风速进行4个月逐时数值模拟,结合测风塔实测资料,对两种模式的模拟结果进行准确性、误差特征等方面研究,结果表明:1) WRF模式和CALMET模式均能较好地模拟出风速的日变化特征,在大风速时间段两个模式模拟误差变大,可能是由于出现台风、降雨伴随大风等天气时,WRF模式边界层方案对大风速时拖曳作用不充分造成,今后可考虑通过天气过程模拟的敏感性研究及历史数据对模拟结果进行订正。2)从各月模拟结果来看,WRF模式与CALMET模式各月模拟值与实测值间相关系数均大于0. 65,两个模式对70 m高度层模拟结果均优于对10 m高度层的模拟结果,并且CALMET模式均方根误差低于WRF模式的。3) CALMET模式在各风速段模拟效果均优于WRF模式的。两个模式在0~3 m·s-1低风速的模拟效果最优,在大风速段( 8 m·s~(-1))模拟结果平均绝对误差最大,今后应对大风模拟结果的订正开展进一步研究。 相似文献
7.
通过降尺度模式CALMET不同参数化方案对江西山地风场测风塔风速风向模拟结果的对比分析,选取出适合山地风场模拟的最优参数化方案,并进行连续一年的模拟效果检验。结果表明:CALMET模式以不采用地形动力效应参数调整和Froude数调整,采用下坡气流效应调整和O’Brien垂直风速调整时,对江西省境内山地风场50 m以上高度层风场模拟效果最佳。最优参数化方案不仅能较好地模拟出山地风场测风塔逐时风速,并且对全年风速段分布模拟有较好的结果。CALMET模式能模拟出实际测风塔全年主导风向,但模拟与实测结果主导风向分布约有一个方位的偏差,主导风向频率有7%~8%的偏差。 相似文献
8.
本文使用中尺度数值模型MM5结合微尺度模型CALMET对黑龙江省桦南地区2009年6月-2010年5月进行风能资源数值模拟,并与测风塔实测风速进行误差对比分析。结果表明各高度模拟风速与实测风相关系数在0.47-0.64,除10 m高度外,年平均风速模拟值都略大于实测值,>10 m/s区间与实测风速频率基本相当,高度越高与实测风速越接近。风向模拟随高度增加趋于稳定,主导风向与实测风向也越接近,70 m高度主导风向与实测风主导风向相一致。模型对风能频率的模拟效果优于对风速频率与风向频率的模拟。 相似文献
9.
基于WRF-3DVAR同化多源融合数据对近海风模拟的改进试验 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
本文利用WRF模式及其3DVAR同化系统,以2008年4月20日00时—23日00时的江苏近海10 m风场为研究个例,对Quik SCAT、Wind SAT、多源测风融合数据进行同化试验,通过比较WRF-3DVAR同化系统对模拟风场初始场和预报场的改进,检验了同化不同类型资料后WRF模式对研究区域内单点及区域近地层风速的预报效果。结果表明:同化试验对初始场有改进,且对预报场的改进较FNL资料明显;不同资料对风场模拟的影响不同,同化星星、星地多源融合资料效果最佳,Quik SCAT次之,Wind SAT最差。此外,在模式分辨率一定的情况下,提高观测资料的分辨率并不一定能够改善模拟效果,资料的稀疏分辨率存在最佳选择。 相似文献
10.
利用渤海观测站风场对ASCAT风场进行检验,发现其风速、风向均有较大误差,尤其在渤海中部以外的海域可信度相对较低。为提高ASCAT风场在渤海海域的精度,基于变分方法,利用渤海观测站风场对2017年9月—2018年2月的ASCAT风场进行订正,得到空间分辨率为12.5 km×12.5 km的订正风场。并对辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾、渤海中部和渤海海峡5个海域风场的订正误差进行检验,结果表明:ASCAT风场订正后精度提高显著,风速平均偏差从4 m·s-1减小为1 m·s-1,风向平均偏差从-30°~30°减小为-7°~4°,可见变分方法对渤海ASCAT风场有很好的订正效果,尤其对误差较大的渤海湾订正效果最为明显。对2017年12月18日的一次大风过程进行订正分析,结果表明:订正风场可以很好地反映沿岸风场信息和大风过程中的风速极值区,并能动态监测大风变化过程。变分方法解决了海面观测数据空间分辨率低、ASCAT数据精度低的问题,能够实时监测海上大风,且对大风预报有很好的指导意义,能够为海洋模式提供更精确的初始场。 相似文献
11.
Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d. 相似文献
12.
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region. 相似文献
13.
Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms. 相似文献
14.
The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
15.
《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,(1):67
正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.SUBMISSIONAll submitted 相似文献
16.
17.
<正>With the support of specialized funds for national science institutions,the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration set up in October 2008 an experiment base for marine meteorology and a number of observation systems for the coastal boundary layer,air-sea flux,marine environmental elements,and basic meteorological elements at Bohe town,Maoming city,Guangdong province,in the northern part of the South China Sea. 相似文献
18.
《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,7(6):F0003-F0003
AIMS AND SCOPE
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
19.
《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(5):F0003-F0003
AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） pub- lishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmos- phere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
20.
《大气和海洋科学快报》2012,(3):273
正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences 相似文献