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1.
The structure parameters of temperature and humidity are important in scintillometry as they determine the structure parameter of the refractive index of air, the primary atmospheric variable obtained with scintillometers. In this study, we investigate the variability of the logarithm of the Monin-Obukhov-scaled structure parameters (denoted as $\log ({\widetilde{C_{s}^2}_{\mathrm {}}})$ ) of temperature and humidity. We use observations from eddy-covariance systems operated at three heights (2.5, 50, and 90 m) within the atmospheric surface layer under unstable conditions. The variability of $\log ({\widetilde{C_{s}^2}_{\mathrm {}}})$ depends on instability and on the size of the averaging window over which $\log ({\widetilde{C_{s}^2}_{\mathrm {}}})$ is calculated. If instability increases, differences in $\log ({\widetilde{C_{s}^2}_{\mathrm {}}})$ between upward motions (large $C_{s}^2$ ) and downward motions (small $C_{s}^2$ ) increase. The differences are, however, not sufficiently large to result in a bimodal probability density function. If the averaging window size increases, the variances of $\log ({\widetilde{C_{s}^2}_{\mathrm {}}})$ decrease. A linear regression of the variances of $\log ({\widetilde{C_{s}^2}_{\mathrm {}}})$ versus the averaging window size for various stability classes shows an increase of both the offset and slope (in absolute sense) with increasing instability. For temperature, data from the three heights show comparable results. For humidity, in contrast, the offset and slope are larger at 50 and 90 m than at 2.5 m. In the end we discuss how these findings could be used to assess whether observed differences in $C_{s}^2$ along a scintillometer path or aircraft flight leg are just within the range of local variability in $C_{s}^2$ or could be attributed to surface heterogeneity. This is important for the interpretation of data measured above a heterogeneous surface.  相似文献   

2.
Climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration are intimately coupled in the Earth system: CO2 influences climate through the greenhouse effect, but climate also affects CO2 through its impact on the amount of carbon stored on land and in the ocean. The change in atmospheric CO2 as a response to a change in temperature ( $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ ) is a useful measure to quantify the feedback between the carbon cycle and climate. Using an ensemble of experiments with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we show a pronounced time-scale dependence of $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ . A maximum is found on centennial scales with $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ values for the model ensemble in the range 5–12 ppm °C?1, while lower values are found on shorter and longer time scales. These results are consistent with estimates derived from past observations. Up to centennial scales, the land carbon response to climate dominates the CO2 signal in the atmosphere, while on longer time scales the ocean becomes important and eventually dominates on multi-millennial scales. In addition to the time-scale dependence, modeled $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ show a distinct dependence on the initial state of the system. In particular, on centennial time-scales, high $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ values are correlated with high initial land carbon content. A similar relation holds also for the CMIP5 models, although for $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ computed from a very different experimental setup. The emergence of common patterns like this could prove to usefully constrain the climate–carbon cycle feedback.  相似文献   

3.
Mountain-top observations of greenhouse gas mixing ratios may be an alternative to tall-tower measurements for regional scale source and sink estimation. To investigate the equivalence or limitations of a mountain-top site as compared to a tall-tower site, we used the unique opportunity of comparing in situ measurements of methane (\(\hbox {CH}_{4}\)) and carbon dioxide (\(\hbox {CO}_{2}\)) mixing ratios at a mountain top (986 m above sea level, a.s.l.) with measurements from a nearby (distance 28.4 km) tall tower, sampled at almost the same elevation (1009 m a.s.l.). Special attention was given to, (i) how local wind statistics and greenhouse gas sources and sinks at the mountain top influence the observations, and (ii) whether mountain-top observations can be used as for those from a tall tower for constraining regional greenhouse gas emissions. Wind statistics at the mountain-top site are clearly more influenced by local flow systems than those at the tall-tower site. Differences in temporal patterns of the greenhouse gas mixing ratios observed at the two sites are mostly related to the influence of local sources and sinks at the mountain-top site. Major influences of local sources can be removed by applying a statistical filter (\(5{\mathrm{th}}\) percentile) or a filter that removes periods with unfavourable flow conditions. In the best case, the bias in mixing ratios between the mountain-top and the tall-tower sites after the application of the wind filter was \({-}0.0005\pm 0.0010\) ppm for methane (September, 0000–0400 UTC) and \(0.11\pm 0.18\) ppm for \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) (February, 1200–1600 UTC). Temporal fluctuations of atmospheric \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) and \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) mixing ratios at both stations also showed good agreement (apart from \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) during summertime) as determined by moving bi-weekly Pearson correlation coefficients (up to 0.96 for \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) and 0.97 for \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\)). When only comparing mixing ratios minimally influenced by local sources (low bias and high correlation coefficients), our measurements indicate that mountain-top observations are comparable to tall-tower observations.  相似文献   

4.
Atmospheric stabilization and the timing of carbon mitigation   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations below a pre-industrial doubling (~550 ppm) is a commonly cited target in climate policy assessment. When the rate at which future emissions can fall is assumed to be fixed, the peak atmospheric concentration – or the stabilization “frontier” – is an increasing and convex function of the length of postponement. Here we find that a decline in emissions of 1% year?1 beginning today would place the frontier near 475 ppm and that when mitigation is postponed, options disappear (on average) at the rate of ~9 ppm year?1, meaning that delays of more than a decade will likely preclude stabilization below a doubling. When constraints on the future decline rate of emissions are relaxed, a particular atmospheric target can be realized in many ways, with scenarios that allow longer postponement of emissions reductions requiring greater increases in the intensity of future mitigation. However, the marginal rate of substitution between future mitigation and present delay becomes prohibitively large when the balance is shifted too far toward the future, meaning that some amount of postponement cannot be fully offset by simply increasing the intensity of future mitigation. Consequently, these results suggest that a practical transition path to a given stabilization target in the most commonly cited range can allow, at most, one or two decades of delay.  相似文献   

5.
S. Lovejoy 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(9-10):2339-2351
Although current global warming may have a large anthropogenic component, its quantification relies primarily on complex General Circulation Models (GCM’s) assumptions and codes; it is desirable to complement this with empirically based methodologies. Previous attempts to use the recent climate record have concentrated on “fingerprinting” or otherwise comparing the record with GCM outputs. By using CO2 radiative forcings as a linear surrogate for all anthropogenic effects we estimate the total anthropogenic warming and (effective) climate sensitivity finding: ΔT anth  = 0.87 ± 0.11 K, $\uplambda_{{2{\text{x}}{\text{CO}}_{2} ,{\text{eff}}}} = 3.08 \pm 0.58\,{\text{K}}$ . These are close the IPPC AR5 values ΔT anth  = 0.85 ± 0.20 K and $\uplambda_{{2{\text{x}}{\text{CO}}_{2} }} = 1.5\!-\!4.5\,{\text{K}}$ (equilibrium) climate sensitivity and are independent of GCM models, radiative transfer calculations and emission histories. We statistically formulate the hypothesis of warming through natural variability by using centennial scale probabilities of natural fluctuations estimated using scaling, fluctuation analysis on multiproxy data. We take into account two nonclassical statistical features—long range statistical dependencies and “fat tailed” probability distributions (both of which greatly amplify the probability of extremes). Even in the most unfavourable cases, we may reject the natural variability hypothesis at confidence levels >99 %.  相似文献   

6.
The characteristics of the temporal and height variations of the temperature structure parameter $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ in strongly convective situations derived from the sodar echo-signal intensity measurements were analyzed for the first 100 m. It was corroborated that the probability density function (pdf) of the logarithm of $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ in the lower convective boundary layer is markedly non-Gaussian, whereas turbulence theory predicts it to be normal. It was also corroborated that the sum of two weighted Gaussians, which characterize the statistics of $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ within convective plumes and in their environment and the probability of plume occurrence, well approximates the observed pdfs. It was shown that the height behaviour of the arithmetic mean of $ C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ (both total and within plumes) follows well a power law $C_\mathrm{T}^{2} (z) \sim z^{-q}$ with the exponent $q$ close to the theoretically predicted value of 4/3. But for the geometrical means of $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ (both total and within the plumes), $q$ is close to 1. The difference between arithmetically and geometrically averaged $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ profiles was analyzed. The vertical profiles of the standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis of $\hbox {ln}C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ pdfs were analyzed to show their steady behaviour with height. The standard deviations of the logarithm of $C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ within the plumes and between them are similar and are 1.5 times less than the total standard deviation. The estimate of the variability index $F_\mathrm{T}$ and its height behaviour were obtained, which can be useful to validate some theoretical and modelling predictions. The vertical profiles of the skewness and kurtosis show the negative asymmetry of pdfs and their flatness, respectively. The spectra of variations in $\hbox {ln}C_\mathrm{T}^{2}$ are shown to be satisfactorily fitted by the power law $f^{-\gamma } $ in the frequency range 0.02 and 0.2 Hz, with the average exponent $\approx $ 1.27  $\pm $  0.22.  相似文献   

7.
Vertical mixing of the nocturnal stable boundary layer (SBL) over a complex land surface is investigated for a range of stabilities, using a decoupling index ( $0 < D_{rb} < 1$ ) based on the 2–50 m bulk gradient of the ubiquitous natural trace gas radon-222. The relationship between $D_{rb}$ and the bulk Richardson number ( $R_{ib}$ ) exhibits three broad regions: (1) a well-mixed region ( $D_{rb} \approx 0.05$ ) in weakly stable conditions ( $R_{ib} < 0.03$ ); (2) a steeply increasing region ( $0.05 < D_{rb} < 0.9$ ) for “transitional” stabilities ( $0.03 < R_{ib} < 1$ ); and (3) a decoupled region ( $D_{rb} \approx 0.9$ –1.0) in very stable conditions ( $R_{ib} > 1$ ). $D_{rb}$ exhibits a large variability within individual $R_{ib}$ bins, however, due to a range of competing processes influencing bulk mixing under different conditions. To explore these processes in $R_{ib}$ – $D_{rb}$ space, we perform a bivariate analysis of the bulk thermodynamic gradients, various indicators of external influences, and key turbulence quantities at 10 and 50 m. Strong and consistent patterns are found, and five distinct regions in $R_{ib}$ – $D_{rb}$ space are identified and associated with archetypal stable boundary-layer regimes. Results demonstrate that the introduction of a scalar decoupling index yields valuable information about turbulent mixing in the SBL that cannot be gained directly from a single bulk thermodynamic stability parameter. A significant part of the high variability observed in turbulence statistics during very stable conditions is attributable to changes in the degree of decoupling of the SBL from the residual layer above. When examined in $R_{ib}$ – $D_{rb}$ space, it is seen that very different turbulence regimes can occur for the same value of $R_{ib}$ , depending on the particular combination of values for the bulk temperature gradient and wind shear, together with external factors. Extremely low turbulent variances and fluxes are found at 50 m height when $R_{ib} > 1$ and $D_{rb} \approx 1$ (fully decoupled). These “quiescent” cases tend to occur when geostrophic forcing is very weak and subsidence is present, but are not associated with the largest bulk temperature gradients. Humidity and net radiation data indicate the presence of low cloud, patchy fog or dew, any of which may aid decoupling in these cases by preventing temperature gradients from increasing sufficiently to favour gravity wave activity. The largest temperature gradients in our dataset are actually associated with smaller values of the decoupling index ( $D_{rb} < 0.7$ ), indicating the presence of mixing. Strong evidence is seen from enhanced turbulence levels, fluxes and submeso activity at 50 m, as well as high temperature variances and heat flux intermittencies at 10 m, suggesting this region of the $R_{ib}$ – $D_{rb}$ distribution can be identified as a top-down mixing regime. This may indicate an important role for gravity waves and other wave-like phenomena in providing the energy required for sporadic mixing at this complex terrain site.  相似文献   

8.
Measurements of vertical fluxes and concentration differences above a spring wheat crop (height $h=0.9$ – $0.95$  m, row spacing 0.25 m, displacement height $d=0.5$ – $0.6$  m) were analyzed to determine the Schmidt numbers for water vapour ( $S^\mathrm{v}$ ) and carbon dioxide ( $S^\mathrm{c}$ ) based on concentration differences between intakes 2.55 and 3.54 m above the ground. During nearly-neutral stratification $S^\mathrm{v}(0) = 0.68 \pm 0.1$ while $S^\mathrm{c} = 0.78 \pm 0.2$ , implying that the roughness sublayer extended above $2.5 h$ .  相似文献   

9.
In October 2012 Hurricane Sandy devastated New York City and its vicinity caused mainly by the storm surge, which is the water height above normal astronomical tide level. The meteorological conditions were as follows: minimum central pressure, 962 hPa, highest sustained wind speed 27.1 m s $^{-1}$ ? 1 and maximum gust 37.8 m s $^{-1}$ ? 1 . The peak storm surge was at 3.9 m and the peak storm tide at 4.4 m (which is referenced above mean lower low water). The wind-stress tide relation shows that $S=K\,V^{2}$ S = K V 2 , where $S$ S is the storm surge, $V$ V is the wind speed and $K$ K is the coefficient. It is found that with $S$ S in units of m, and $V$ V in  m s $^{-1}$ ? 1 , $K = 0.0051$ K = 0.0051 with $R^{2}= 0.91$ R 2 = 0.91 ( $R$ R is the correlation coefficient) indicating that 91 % of the total variation of the storm surge can be explained by variations in the wind stress, which is proportional to $V^{2}$ V 2 . Similar results were obtained during Hurricane Irene in 2011, which also affected the New York area. Therefore, this simple wind stress-tide relation should be useful in coastal engineering, urban planning, and emergency management.  相似文献   

10.
A dataset obtained using a wind-profile radar located at the Yangtze River Delta in China ( $31.14^{\circ }$ N, $121.81^{\circ }$ E) in 2009 was used to investigate the characteristics and evolution of low-level jets (LLJs) along the east China coast. The study investigated the daily and seasonal structures of LLJs as well as several possible causes. A total of 1,407 1-h LLJ periods were detected based on an adaptive definition that enabled determination of four LLJ categories. The majority (77 %) of LLJs were found to have speeds $<$ 14.0 m s $^{-1}$ (maximum of 34.6 m s $^{-1})$ and occur at an average altitude below 600 m (76 % of the observed LLJs). The dominant direction of the LLJs was from the south-south-west, which accounted for nearly 32 %, with the second most common wind direction ranging from $040^{\circ }$ to $100^{\circ }$ , albeit with a number of stronger LLJs from the west-south-west. A comparison of LLJs and South-west Jets revealed that the frequencies of occurrence in summer are totally different. Results also revealed that in spring and summer, most LLJs originate from the south-south-west, whereas in autumn and winter, north-east is the dominant direction of origin. The peak heights of LLJs tended to be higher in winter than in other seasons. The horizontal wind speed and peak height of the LLJs displayed pronounced diurnal cycles. The Hilbert–Huang transform technique was applied to demonstrate that the intrinsic mode functions with a cycle of nearly 23 h at levels below 800 m, and the instantaneous amplitudes of inertial events (0.0417–0.0476 h $^{-1}$ frequencies) have large values at 300–600 m. The variations in the occurrences of LLJs suggested connections between the formation mechanisms of LLJs and the South-west Jet stream, steady occupation of synoptic-scale pressure system, and land–sea temperature contrasts.  相似文献   

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