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1.
The Spatial Patterns of Initial Errors Related to the ＂Winter Predictability Barrier＂ of the Indian Ocean Dipole 
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下载免费PDF全文 In this study, using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2pl （GFDL CM2pl） coupled model, the winter predictability barrier （WPB） is found to exist in the model not only in the growing phase but also the Indian Ocean dipole （IOD） decaying phase of positive events due to the effect of initial errors. In particular, the WPB is stronger in the growing phase than in the decaying phase. These results indicate that initial errors can cause the WPB. The domi- nant patterns of the initial errors that cause the occurrence of the WPB often present an eastern-western dipole both in the surface and subsurface temperature components. These initial errors tend to concentrate in a few areas, and these areas may represent the sensitive areas of the predictions of positive IOD events. By increasing observations over these areas and eliminating initial errors here, the WPB phenomenon may be largely weakened and the forecast skill greatly improved. 相似文献
2.
Numerical Assessing Experiments on the Individual Component Impact of the Meteorological Observation Network on the ＂July 2000＂ Torrential Rain in Beijing 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 ZHANG Chaolin CHEN Min KUO Ying-Hw FAN Shuiyong ZHONG Jiqin 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2006,20(4):389-401
In an effort to assess the impact of the individual component of meteorological observations (ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor,automatic and conventional meteorological observations) on the torrential rain event in 4-5 July 2000 in Beijing (with the 24-h accumulated precipitation reaching 240 mm),24-h observation system experiments are conducted numerically by using the MM5/WRF 3DVAR system and the nonhydrostatic MM5 model.Results indicate that,because the non-conventional GPS observations are directly assimilated into the initial analyses by 3DVAR system,better initial fields and 24-h simulation for the severe precipitation event are achieved than those under the MM5/Litter_R objective analysis scheme. Further analysis also shows that the individual component of meteorological observation network plays their special positive role in the improvement of initial field analysis and forecasting skills.3DVAR scheme with or without radiosonde and pilot observation has the most significant influence on numerical simulation,and automatic and conventional surface meteorological observations rank second.After acquiring the supplement information from the other meteorological observations,the ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor data can more obviously reflect initial field assimilation and precipitation forecast.By incorporating the ground- based GPS precipitable water vapor data into the 3DVAR analyses at the initial time,the threat scores (TS) with thresholds of 1,5,10,and 20 mm are increased by 1%-8% for 6- and 24-h accumulated precipitation observations,respectively.This work gives one helpful example that assesses the impact of individual component of the existing meteorological observation network on the high influence weather event using 3DVAR numerical system. 相似文献
3.
众所周知,铁路是国民经济的大动脉,类似的,可以把输电线路（包括电气化铁路接触网）看成是城市、国民经济各行各业（包括电气化铁路）的大动脉。人的动脉断血,意味着一个人死亡;输电线路断电,意味着城市瘫痪、企业停产、电气化铁路中断。秋冬多雾季节里,雾对输电线路的影响不像狂风、暴雨、暴雪、雷电那么直接,那么猛烈,那么显见, 相似文献
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我国风能、太阳能资源十分丰富,但分布极不平衡。在河北省张家口市张北县和环渤海岸线具备丰富的风能、太阳能等可再生能源。 相似文献
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走进贵州的山山水水,错落有致的石板房、鳞次栉比的吊脚木屋、多姿多彩的风雨桥,会依次映入你的眼帘。远离城市喧嚣,在群山万壑闾与鸟语花香、潺潺流水为伴,你的心境会立刻静化。 相似文献
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在贵州,每当冬天来临,人们都会禁不住谈到有关凝冻的话题,有的甚至感觉有些神秘,为什么只有贵州等少数省份有？为何又叫低温雨雪冰冻天气？其实,凝冻作为一种天气现象并不神秘,它是贵州冬季常见的天气现象。 相似文献
10.
每个人的味蕾上,都“驻扎”着一群敏感而固执的神经,舌尖上无疑保留着那些最鲜活和最永久的记忆。我曾去过很多地方旅行,也曾品尝过无数美食,那些美食尽管甘甜异香,却始终无法替代家乡的味道。记得在外地求学的时候,最让我魂牵梦萦的,不是家乡的山山水水,亦不是那些熟悉的街道,甚至不是父母的怀抱, 相似文献
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＂赤橙黄绿青蓝紫,谁持彩练当空舞？雨后复斜阳,关山阵阵苍。当年鏖战急,弹洞前村壁。装点此关山,今朝更好看。” 相似文献
12.
从人类第一次仰望天际、惊见极光的那一刻开始,极光就一直是一个谜。极光来自于拉丁文“伊欧斯”一词,传说伊欧斯是希腊神话中黎明的化身,是希腊神泰坦的女儿,是太阳神和月亮女神的妹妹。长久以来,世界各地的人们都各自演绎着自己的传说,中国的漠河也流传着关于极光的传说。它如梦如幻,带着让人无法抗拒的魅力,将漠河——这个中国唯一能有机会一睹极光风采的地方装扮得神奇而绚丽。 相似文献
13.
古语有云．“橘生淮南则为橘,生于淮北则为枳,叶徒相似,其实味不同。”一方水土养一方人,每个地区的气候、区位环境不同,人的生活方式、品格性情、思想观念也就随之而改变。 相似文献
14.
本文主要阐述了湖南省气象局对重大气象灾害防御的应急机制的摸索。管理机制能使气象防灾应急有章可循,预警机制能使气象防灾应急快速反应,联动机制能使气象防灾应急形成合力,评估机制能使气象防灾应急定位准确。还针对存在的不足,提出了加强和改进气象应急管理的三点建议。 相似文献
15.
V. HAMZA C. A. BABU T. P. SABIN 《大气科学进展》2007,24(4):631-643
The marine atmospheric boundary layer （MABL） plays a vital role in the transport of momentum and heat from the surface of the ocean into the atmosphere. A detailed study on the MABL characteristics was carried out using high-resolution surface-wind data as measured by the QuikSCAT （Quick scatterometer） satellite. Spatial variations in the surface wind, frictional velocity, roughness parameter and drag coefficient for the different seasons were studied. The surface wind was strong during the southwest monsoon season due to the modulation induced by the Low Level Jetstream. The drag coefficient was larger during this season, due to the strong winds and was lower during the winter months. The spatial variations in the frictional velocity over the seas was small during the post-monsoon season （-0.2 m s^-1）. The maximum spatial variation in the frictional velocity was found over the south Arabian Sea （0.3 to 0.5 m s^-1） during the southwest monsoon period, followed by the pre-monsoon over the Bay of Bengal （0.1 to 0.25 m s^-1）. The mean wind-stress curl during the winter was positive over the equatorial region, with a maximum value of 1.5×10^-7 N m^-3, but on either side of the equatorial belt, a negative wind-stress curl dominated. The area average of the frictional velocity and drag coefficient over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal were also studied. The values of frictional velocity shows a variability that is similar to the intraseasonal oscillation （ISO） and this was confirmed via wavelet analysis. In the case of the drag coefficient, the prominent oscillations were ISO and quasi-biweekly mode （QBM）. The interrelationship between the drag coefficient and the frictional velocity with wind speed in both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal was also studied. 相似文献
16.
Numerical Simulation of the Effect of the SST Anomalies in the Tropical Western Pacific on the Blocking Highs over the Northeastern Asia 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
The effects of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical western Pacific on the atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia are simulated by the IAP-GCM with an observed and idealized distributions of the SST anomalies in the tropical western Pacific,respectively.Firstly,the atmospheric circulation anomalies during July and August,1980 are simulated by three anomalous experiments including the global SST anomaly experiment,the tropical SST anomaly experiment and the extratropical SST anomaly experiment,using the observed SST anomalies in 1980.It is shown that the SST anomalies in the tropical ocean greatly influence the formation and maintenance of the blocking high over the northeastern Asia,and may play a more important role than the SST anomalies in the extratropical ocean in the influence on the atmospheric circulation anomalies.Secondly,the effects of the SST anomalies in the tropical western Pacific on the atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia are also simulated w 相似文献
17.
Varotsos Costas A. Sarlis Nikos V. Efstathiou Maria 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,132(1-2):569-578
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Andean tropical glaciers have shown a clear shrinkage throughout the last few decades. However, it is unclear how this general retreat is associated with... 相似文献
18.
The possibility to use the observations of the total ozone values in the atmosphere (TO) in the end of polar winters as the
indicator of the cold accumulation in the troposphere and the type of its circulation is considered. The influence of TO over
polar regions on the approach of early and late circulation reconstructions in the stratosphere and the following weather
type in spring-summer season is concluded. 相似文献
19.
Andrew Kerr Macintosh 《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):341-355
One of the reasons why the Kyoto Protocol has been environmentally ineffective is the flaws in the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounting rules, including voluntary accounting for Article 3.4 activities, the adoption of a definition of forest management that allowed parties to preferentially include and exclude forest lands, and allowing parties with net emissions from LULUCF in 1990 to include deforestation emissions in their 1990 emissions base year. Three proposed amendments to the LULUCF rules for the post-2012 regime are discussed and analysed: (1) a force majeure rule, (2) a baseline-and-credit system for forest management and (3) an ‘emissions-to-atmosphere’ approach for harvested wood products. Although these proposals have the potential to significantly improve the accounting framework, there are still significant problems such as the failure to account for the biophysical effects of forest activities, uncertainties associated with the application of the forest management baseline-and-credit system and continuing optional coverage of Article 3.4 activities. 相似文献
20.
A. Jayakumar J��r?me Vialard M. Lengaigne C. Gnanaseelan Julian P. McCreary B. Praveen Kumar 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(11-12):2217-2234
During boreal winter, there is a prominent maximum of intraseasonal sea-surface temperature (SST) variability associated with the Madden?CJulian Oscillation (MJO) along a Thermocline Ridge located in the southwestern Indian Ocean (5°S?C10°S, 60°E?C90°E; TRIO region). There is an ongoing debate about the relative importance of air-sea heat fluxes and oceanic processes in driving this intraseasonal SST variability. Furthermore, various studies have suggested that interannual variability of the oceanic structure in the TRIO region could modulate the amplitude of the MJO-driven SST response. In this study, we use observations and ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments to quantify these two effects over the 1997?C2006 period. Observational analysis indicates that Ekman pumping does not contribute significantly (on average) to intraseasonal SST variability. It is, however, difficult to quantify the relative contribution of net heat fluxes and entrainment to SST intraseasonal variability from observations alone. We therefore use a suite of OGCM experiments to isolate the impacts of each process. During 1997?C2006, wind stress contributed on average only about 20% of the intraseasonal SST variability (averaged over the TRIO region), while heat fluxes contributed about 70%, with forcing by shortwave radiation (75%) dominating the other flux components (25%). This estimate is consistent with an independent air-sea flux product, which indicates that shortwave radiation contributes 68% of intraseasonal heat flux variability. The time scale of the heat-flux perturbation, in addition to its amplitude, is also important in controlling the intraseasonal SST signature, with longer periods favouring a larger response. There are also strong year-to-year variations in the respective role of heat fluxes and wind stress. Of the five strong cooling events identified in both observations and the model (two in 1999 and one in 2000, 2001 and 2002), intraseasonal-wind stress dominates the SST signature during 2001 and contributes significantly during 2000. Interannual variations of the subsurface thermal structure associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole or El Ni?o/La Ni?a events modulate the MJO-driven SST signature only moderately (by up to 30%), mainly by changing the temperature of water entrained into the mixed layer. The primary factor that controls year-to-year changes in the amplitude of TRIO, intraseasonal SST anomalies is hence the characteristics of intraseasonal surface flux perturbations, rather than changes in the underlying oceanic state. 相似文献