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1.
冬春季节北极海冰的年际和年代际变化 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
利用1953～1990年海冰密集度资料,研究了冬、春季节北极海冰的时空变化特征.结果表明:冬,春季节海冰变率大的海区主要有巴伦支海、格陵兰海、巴芬湾、戴维斯海峡以及白令海;在巴芬湾、戴维斯海峡和白令海海区,冬季海冰变率比春季的大;冬、春季节喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积均与春季白令海海冰面积呈反向变化关系,与巴芬湾、戴维斯海峡海冰面积也存在相反的变化趋势.分析还表明:北极海冰面积还表现出年代际时间尺度变化,尤其在冬季.春季格陵兰海海冰明显存在12年变化周期,而在冬、春季节,喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰存在l0年变化周期. 相似文献
2.
Late Pliocene to Pleistocene sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet in response to external forcing and internal feedbacks 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
The timing and nature of ice sheet variations on Greenland over the last ～5 million years remain largely uncertain. Here, we use a coupled climate-vegetation-ice sheet model to determine the climatic sensitivity of Greenland to combined sets of external forcings and internal feedbacks operating on glacial-interglacial timescales. In particular, we assess the role of atmospheric pCO2, orbital forcing, and vegetation dynamics in modifying thresholds for the onset of glaciation in late Pliocene and Pleistocene. The response of circum-Arctic vegetation to declining levels of pCO2 (from 400 to 200 ppmv) and decreasing summer insolation includes a shift from boreal forest to tundra biomes, with implications for the surface energy balance. The expansion of tundra amplifies summer surface cooling and heat loss from the ground, leading to an expanded summer snow cover over Greenland. Atmospheric and land surface fields respond to forcing most prominently in late spring-summer and are more sensitive at lower Pleistocene-like levels of pCO2. We find cold boreal summer orbits produce favorable conditions for ice sheet growth, however simulated ice sheet extents are highly dependent on both background pCO2 levels and land-surface characteristics. As a result, late Pliocene ice sheet configurations on Greenland differ considerably from late Pleistocene, with smaller ice caps on high elevations of southern and eastern Greenland, even when orbital forcing is favorable for ice sheet growth. 相似文献
3.
Abstract This study looks at simultaneous changes in atmospheric circulation and extremes in sea‐ice cover during winter. Thirty‐six years of ice‐cover data and 100‐kPa height and 50–100‐kPa thickness data are used. For the entire Arctic, the study found a general weakening of the Aleutian and Icelandic lows for heavy (i.e. severe) compared with light sea‐ice conditions suggesting reduced surface heating as a possible cause. The weakening of the two lows would also reduce meridional atmospheric circulation and poleward heat transport into the Arctic. The study also looks at three regions of high sea ice and atmospheric variability: the Bering Sea, the Davis Strait/Labrador Sea and the Greenland Sea. For the Bering Sea, heavy sea‐ice conditions were accompanied by weakening and westward displacement of the Aleutian Low again suggesting reduced surface heating and the formation of a secondary low in the Gulf of Alaska. This change in circulation is consistent with increased cold air advection over the Bering Sea and changes in storm tracks and meridional heat transport found in other studies. For the Davis Strait/Labrador Sea, heavy ice‐cover winters were accompanied by intensification of the Icelandic Low suggesting atmospheric temperature and wind advection and associated changes in ocean currents as the main cause of heavy ice. For the Greenland Sea no statistically significant difference was found. It is felt that this may be due to the important role that ice export through Fram Strait and ocean currents play in determining ice extent in this region. 相似文献
4.
《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2006,41(2):103-120
The effects of Earth's rotation on convection into stratified fluid under uniform surface cooling are investigated using a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. The initial mixed layer depth varies by a factor of 40 and temperature gradient below the mixed layer varies by three orders of magnitude. At the end of integration (typically 20–40 inertial periods), the so-called natural Rossby number for the rotating experiments varies from 0.06 to 2. The wide range of conditions used is designed to extract scaling laws of rotating convection and to shed light on the importance of Earth's rotation on convection. It is found that the effects of rotation can be characterized by a series of hyperbolic tangent functions of the natural Rossby number. The effects of rotation are most pronounced when Ro is order 0.1 or less. For Ro ≥ 1, the effects of rotation become small. Comparison of Lagrangian statistics of numerical floats reveals that horizontal mixing is suppressed in the presence of rotation. This result is consistent with the finding that integral length scale and turbulent intensity decrease when rotation is included, in contrast to the conclusion of an early study that argued for increased horizontal mixing in the presence of rotation. 相似文献
5.
6.
Abstract A study is presented of the seasonal and interannual variability of Arctic sea‐ice extent over the 32‐year period 1953–84. The data set used consists of monthly sea‐ice concentration values given on a 1°‐latitude grid and represents a 7‐year extension of the 25‐year data set analysed by Walsh and Johnson (1979). By focussing attention on the variability in seven distinct subregions that circumscribe the polar region, a number of interesting spatial patterns emerge in the regional seasonal cycles and anomalies of ice coverage. For example, the time‐scale of the smoothed anomaly fluctuations varies from a 4–6 year cycle in the western Arctic (e.g. the Beaufort Sea) to a decadal one in the eastern Arctic (e.g. the Barents Sea). Also, in agreement with earlier studies, a significant out‐of‐phase relationship was found between the 25‐month smoothed anomalies in the Beaufort and Chukchi Sea region and the Greenland Sea. It is proposed that this behaviour is related to atmospheric pressure anomalies associated with the see‐saw in winter air temperature between northern Europe and western Greenland. Finally, a particularly large 9‐year ice anomaly in the Greenland Sea that was centred on 1968 appears to have evolved into a substantial 4‐year Labrador Sea anomaly that peaked in 1972. Both of these anomalies coincided with the passage of the “ Great Salinity Anomaly”, which traversed cyclonically around the subpolar gyre in the northern North Atlantic during the period 1968–82. 相似文献
7.
8.
A. G. Andreev 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2010,35(9):633-640
The interannual variations of the sea level at the coastal stations of the Sea of Japan and of the water discharge through
the Korea (Tsushima) Strait are studied. It is demonstrated that the interannual variations of the water discharge through
this strait are determined by the water discharge of the Oyashio (in the subarctic Pacific) and the Kuroshio (in the East
China Sea) currents and by the zonal wind stress component over the Sea of Japan in winter period. It is revealed that the
variations in the East China Sea water transport through the Korea (Tsushima) Strait cause the interannual variations of the
dissolved oxygen content in intermediate (500 m) and deep (1000 m and more, σθ = 27.35) waters of the Sea of Japan. 相似文献
9.
Torben Koenigk Mihaela Caian Grigory Nikulin Semjon Schimanke 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(1-2):317-337
Seasonal prediction skill of winter mid and high northern latitudes climate from sea ice variations in eight different Arctic regions is analyzed using detrended ERA-interim data and satellite sea ice data for the period 1980–2013. We find significant correlations between ice areas in both September and November and winter sea level pressure, air temperature and precipitation. The prediction skill is improved when using November sea ice conditions as predictor compared to September. This is particularly true for predicting winter NAO-like patterns and blocking situations in the Euro-Atlantic area. We find that sea ice variations in Barents Sea seem to be most important for the sign of the following winter NAO—negative after low ice—but amplitude and extension of the patterns are modulated by Greenland and Labrador Seas ice areas. November ice variability in the Greenland Sea provides the best prediction skill for central and western European temperature and ice variations in the Laptev/East Siberian Seas have the largest impact on the blocking number in the Euro-Atlantic region. Over North America, prediction skill is largest using September ice areas from the Pacific Arctic sector as predictor. Composite analyses of high and low regional autumn ice conditions reveal that the atmospheric response is not entirely linear suggesting changing predictive skill dependent on sign and amplitude of the anomaly. The results confirm the importance of realistic sea ice initial conditions for seasonal forecasts. However, correlations do seldom exceed 0.6 indicating that Arctic sea ice variations can only explain a part of winter climate variations in northern mid and high latitudes. 相似文献
10.
D. V. Stepanov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2017,42(9):601-606
The first baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation (R 1) in the Sea of Okhotsk is estimated using the hydrological datasets from the World Ocean Atlas (WOA) 2001 and WOA 2013. It is established that the maximum values of R 1 are observed over the Kuril Basin (18–20 km), and its minimum values (1.5–2 km), over the northern shelf of the Sea of Okhotsk. In the central part of the sea R1 varies from 8 to 10 km. The seasonal variability of R1 for both datasets is characterized by the minima in winter and by the maxima in summer. It was found that on the eastern shelf of Sakhalin Island R 1 reaches the maximum both in November (～6 km) and in April (～4-5 km). According to the obtained estimates of R 1, the model grid resolution of 3 to 8 km should be used for the eddy-permitting numerical simulation of circulation in the Sea of Okhotsk, and the model grid resolution from 1.5 to 2 km, for the explicit simulation of mesoscale variability. 相似文献
11.
北极海冰变化的时间和空间型 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
利用 4 4a(195 1～ 1994年 )北极海冰密度逐月资料 ,分析提出了一种与北极冰自然季节变化相吻合的分季法 ,并根据这种分季法 ,使用EOF分解 ,揭示了北极各季海冰面积异常的特征空间型及其对应的时间变化尺度。结果表明 :(1)北极冰面积异常变化的关键区 ,冬季 (2～ 4月 )主要位于北大西洋一侧的格陵兰海、巴伦支海和戴维斯海峡以及北太平洋一侧的鄂霍次克海和白令海 ,夏季 (8～ 10月 )则主要限于从喀拉海、东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海到波佛特海的纬向带状区域内 ,格陵兰海和巴伦支海是北极海冰面积异常变化的最重要区域 ;(2 )春 (5～ 7月 )、秋 (11月～次年 1月 )季各主要海区海冰面积异常基本呈同相变化 ,夏季东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海、波佛特海一带海冰面积异常和喀拉海呈反相变化 ,而冬季巴伦支海、格陵兰海海冰面积异常和戴维斯海峡、拉布拉多海、白令海、鄂霍次克海的海冰变化呈反相变化 ;(3)北极冰总面积过去 4 4a来确实经历了一种趋势性的减少 ,并且叠加在这种趋势变化之上的是年代尺度变化 ,其中春季 (5～ 7月 )海冰面积异常变化对年平均北极冰总面积异常变化作出了主要贡献 ;(4)位于北太平洋一侧极冰面积异常型基本具有半年的持续性 ,而位于北大西洋一侧极冰面积异常型具有半年至一年的持续性 相似文献
12.
Climatology, trends and variability of cloud fraction cover (CFC) data over the Arctic (north of 70°N), were analysed over the 1982–2009 period. Data, available from the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF), are derived from satellite measurements by AVHRR. Climatological means confirm permanent high CFC values over the Atlantic sector during all the year and during summer over the eastern Arctic Ocean. Lower values are found in the rest of the analysed area especially over Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, nearly continuously during all the months. These results are confirmed by CFC trends and variability. Statistically significant trends were found during all the months over the Greenland Sea, particularly during the winter season (negative, less than ?5?%?dec ?1) and over the Beaufort Sea in spring (positive, more than +5?%?dec ?1). CFC variability, investigated by the Empirical Orthogonal Functions, shows a substantial “non-variability” in the Northern Atlantic Ocean. Statistically significant correlations between CFC principal components elements and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and Pacific North America patterns are found. 相似文献
13.
Thomas J. Bracegirdle John Turner J. Scott Hosking Tony Phillips 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(7-8):2093-2104
The influence of changes in winds over the Amundsen Sea has been shown to be a potentially key mechanism in explaining rapid loss of ice from major glaciers in West Antarctica, which is having a significant impact on global sea level. Here, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model data are used to assess twenty-first century projections in westerly winds over the Amundsen Sea (U AS ). The importance of model uncertainty and internal climate variability in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario projections are quantified and potential sources of model uncertainty are considered. For the decade 2090–2099 the CMIP5 models show an ensemble mean twenty-first century response in annual mean U AS of 0.3 and 0.7 m s?1 following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. However, as a consequence of large internal climate variability over the Amundsen Sea, it takes until around 2030 (2065) for the RCP8.5 response to exceed one (two) standard deviation(s) of decadal internal variability. In all scenarios and seasons the model uncertainty is large. However the present-day climatological zonal wind bias over the whole South Pacific, which is important for tropical teleconnections, is strongly related to inter-model differences in projected change in U AS (more skilful models show larger U AS increases). This relationship is significant in winter (r = ?0.56) and spring (r = ?0.65), when the influence of the tropics on the Amundsen Sea region is known to be important. Horizontal grid spacing and present day sea ice extent are not significant sources of inter-model spread. 相似文献
14.
P. N. Golovin 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2008,33(11):718-731
Shelf areas in the region of the Severnaya Zemlya Archipelago in the Laptev Sea are characterized by existing quasi-stationary flaw polynya that periodically opens throughout the entire wintertime under the action of strong offshore winds, which occur during the passage of cyclones. In periods of the open water surface, a near-surface turbulent layer or forced convection layer is formed in the flaw polynya; the water in the layer formed undergoes intense salinization and its dense increases due to active volumetric frazil ice production. As a result of the gravity force action, intense three-dimensional convective circulation develops in the underlying layers. It leads to a fast convective adjustment of the entire water column, especially, in the late winter, when residual stratification in the area of polynya is weakened with the total action of salinization due to the background static ΣMs back and periodical local frazil ice formation ΣMs f . On the whole for the entire winter period ΣMs f is 3.4 times greater than ΣMs back, although, during one month, probable lifetime of polynya with open water surface is several days. However, in these periods, salt fluxes with frazil ice production exceed background salt fluxes in the congelation polynya and background salt fluxes under heavy ice (limiting the polynya) 10–80 times. Spreading outside the polynia, dense shelf waters form in the area of polynya mesoscale baroclinic circulation, first generating intense shelf cascading, then intense slope cascading, which is of a local and random character. Some estimates of elements of baroclinic circulation of a convective origin in the area of polynia were obtained from the laboratory modeling results and are confirmed by field observation data. 相似文献
15.
利用美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)向外长波辐射(OLR)月平均资料、欧洲中期数值预报中心(ECMWF)ERA-interim月平均再分析资料、全球降水气候中心(GPCC)降水资料及中国气象局国家气象信息中心提供的中国756站逐日观测资料,通过定义一个海洋性大陆区域对流强度指数(IOLR),分析了海洋性大陆区域(Maritime Continent,MC)近35年来11月—次年1月对流活动特征,并揭示了11月—次年1月海洋性大陆区域对流活动强度的年际变化与同期云贵高原降水的联系。结果表明:海洋性大陆区域对流活动除了有逐渐增强的趋势外,还存在3—5 a及8—10 a的振荡周期。当海洋性大陆区域对流活动偏弱(强)时,云贵高原西部降水偏少(多),东部降水偏多(少),高原东西部之间降水分布差异加大(减小)。引起云贵高原降水异常的原因有3个方面:一是在海洋性大陆区域与云贵高原间存在显著的异常垂直环流圈,当下沉(上升)支位于海洋性大陆区域时,上升(下沉)支将位于云贵高原地区。而云贵高原地形可能对云贵高原降水异常在东南部和西北部的差别的产生存在影响;二是海洋性大陆区域在对流层低层的辐散和对流层上层的辐合运动为热带和高原以东地区提供了异常的位涡强迫,直接导致对流层低层南海—孟加拉湾地区异常反气旋和对流层上层位于中国南方的异常气旋性环流的产生;三是由于海洋性大陆区域辐散运动作为位涡制造而激发的位涡扰动的能量从热带地区向云贵高原及其东侧频散并辐合,对云贵高原上空扰动异常的维持起到了重要作用。这些结果有利于深刻理解云贵高原冬季降水异常的形成机理以及为寻找降水异常预测因子提供了有用的线索。 相似文献
16.
基于时空结构指标的中国融合降水资料质量评估 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
引入空间、时间技巧评分以及结构函数3种指标,通过对比中国国家气象信息中心研制的逐日融合降水资料和美国国家海洋大气局(NOAA)气候预测中心卫星反演降水资料(CMORPH)、热带测雨卫星反演降水资料(TRMM)在中国区域的适用性和误差分布,着重考察融合降水资料的质量。结果表明,中国区域平均的融合降水资料时空精度远高于CMORPH和TRMM卫星降水资料,且融合资料和卫星资料在夏季的质量优于冬季;在中国东南区域的模拟精度普遍好于西部地区,融合降水质量最高的两个区域为江淮和华南,较差的区域则在青藏高原和西北地区。融合后降水资料比融合前CMORPH卫星降水在空间及时间技巧评分均有较大提高,其提高幅度冬季大于夏季。通过计算结构函数,发现在中国江淮、华南、华北和东北等地区,随着网格区域内任意两点距离的增大,融合产品与观测降水的结构函数曲线始终十分接近。在西北、青藏高原等区域,融合产品与观测降水的结构函数则偏离较大。西南地区地形复杂,卫星资料无法精确反映实际降水情况,高密度观测资料尤为重要。江淮、华南、华北地区的融合降水结构函数曲线增长率大于东北,也从侧面反映江淮、华南、华北地区降水分布的非均一性比东北强,降水可能受中小尺度天气系统影响较大。 相似文献
17.
The Cold Tongue in the South China Sea during Boreal Winter and Its Interaction with the Atmosphere 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
A distinct cold tongue has recently been noticed in the South China Sea during the winter monsoon, with the cold tongue temperature minimum occurring in the January or February. This cold tongue shows significant links with the Maritime Continent’s rainfall during the winter period. The cold tongue and its interaction with the Maritime Continent’s weather were studied using Reynolds SST data, wind fields from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset and the quikSCAT dataset. In addition, rainfall from the GOES Prec... 相似文献
18.
John R.N. Lazier 《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):227-238
Abstract Monthly averages of water temperature, salinity, and density anomaly at 11 depths between 10 and 1500 m, at Ocean Weather Ship Bravo (56°30'N, 51°00'W), between 1964 and 1974 are presented. Near‐surface salinity values between 1967 and 1971 were significantly lower than those between 1964–1967. Coincident with the lower salinity values, the winter‐time heat losses were less than normal. The combination of increased stratification with the low heat losses tended to limit the convectively mixed upper layer in winter to unusually shallow depths. It is suggested that the low salinity condition was indirectly due to an anomalously high atmospheric pressure cell over Greenland. This cell increased the anticylonic air flow around Greenland causing an increase in the proportion of low‐salinity polar water in the east Greenland and Labrador Currents and subsequently in the interior of the Labrador Sea. 相似文献
19.
Simulating the Holocene climate evolution at northern high latitudes using a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Hans Renssen Hugues Goosse Thierry Fichefet Victor Brovkin Emmanuelle Driesschaert Frank Wolk 《Climate Dynamics》2005,24(1):23-43
The response of the climate at high northern latitudes to slowly changing external forcings was studied in a 9,000-year long simulation with the coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-vegetation model ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE. Only long-term changes in insolation and atmospheric CO2
and CH4 content were prescribed. The experiment reveals an early optimum (9–8 kyr BP) in most regions, followed by a 1–3°C decrease in mean annual temperatures, a reduction in summer precipitation and an expansion of sea-ice cover. These results are in general agreement with proxy data. Over the continents, the timing of the largest temperature response in summer coincides with the maximum insolation difference, while over the oceans, the maximum response is delayed by a few months due to the thermal inertia of the oceans, placing the strongest cooling in the winter half year. Sea ice is involved in two positive feedbacks (ice-albedo and sea-ice insulation) that lead regionally to an amplification of the thermal response in our model (7°C cooling in Canadian Arctic). In some areas, the tundra-taiga feedback results in intensified cooling during summer, most notably in northern North America. The simulated sea-ice expansion leads in the Nordic Seas to less deep convection and local weakening of the overturning circulation, producing a maximum winter temperature reduction of 7°C. The enhanced interaction between sea ice and deep convection is accompanied by increasing interannual variability, including two marked decadal-scale cooling events. Deep convection intensifies in the Labrador Sea, keeping the overall strength of the thermohaline circulation stable throughout the experiment. 相似文献
20.
Comparison of artificial neural network and multivariate linear regression methods for estimation of daily soil temperature in an arid region 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Hossein Tabari Ali-Akbar Sabziparvar Mohammad Ahmadi 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2011,110(3-4):135-142
Soil temperature (T S) strongly influences a wide range of biotic and abiotic processes. As an alternative to direct measurement, indirect determination of T S from meteorological parameters has been the focus of attention of environmental researchers. The main purpose of this study was to estimate daily T S at six depths (5, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100?cm) by using a multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network (ANN) model and a multivariate linear regression (MLR) method in an arid region of Iran. Mean daily meteorological parameters including air temperature (T a), solar radiation (R S), relative humidity (RH) and precipitation (P) were used as input data to the ANN and MLR models. The model results of the MLR model were compared to those of ANN. The accuracy of the predictions was evaluated by the correlation coefficient (r), the root mean-square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) between the measured and predicted T S values. The results showed that the ANN method forecasts were superior to the corresponding values obtained by the MLR model. The regression analysis indicated that T a, RH, R S and P were reasonably correlated with T S at various depths, but the most effective parameters influencing T S at different depths were T a and RH. 相似文献