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1.
基于1998/1999年HUBEX强化观测资料的水文过程模拟 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
考虑流域空间变异性,基于数字高程模型,构建淮河流域能量和水循环试验(HUBEX)水文强化观测区-史灌河流域的数字水系.在此基础上,应用新安江模型计算蒋集控制站1980～1987年日流量过程.结果表明,基于数字流域的水文模型明显优于传统水文模型.同时,对1998/1999年史灌河流域黄泥庄站和蒋集站的径流过程及土壤水分时间序列过程进行了检验,结果令人满意. 相似文献
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探讨土壤湿度模拟与预报的可能途径，本文从水量平衡的物理原理出发，利用统计模型建立完全预报方程与简化预报方程，以淮河流域能量与水循环试验(HUBEX)的外场观测试验区所得淮河史灌河流域土壤水分的加密观测资料及其同期降水、蒸发、径流等水文观测资料(逐日资料)为例，进行了预报试验。结果表明，预报精度约为87．3％-88．3％。可见，利用前一日和前两日的降水和土壤湿度可以尝试作为估计未来土壤湿度的预报因子，但这只是一次初步的试验。 相似文献
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车尔臣河流域水面蒸发折算系数分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
根据车尔臣河流域且末水文站1991-2004年间,20cm口径小型蒸发器与E601型蒸发器同期观测资料,估算了20cm小型蒸发器对E601型蒸发器的蒸发折算系数,分析了其变化特征,并将其与库尔勒市及我国新蒙区年水面蒸发折算系数进行了对比.结果表明,车尔臣河流域冻结期(10月一次年3月)的水面蒸发虽然微弱,但不能忽略,水面蒸发折算系数在非冻结期呈先增后减趋势,年际变化较小.该结果可供车尔臣河流域水量平衡研究、水资源评价、生态需水计算时参考. 相似文献
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以富春江水库控制流域为研究区域,利用中国大气同化驱动数据集（CMADS V1.1）驱动SWAT水文模型,对富春江水库控制流域进行了逐日径流模拟,探讨了流域2008-2016年径流变化及水量平衡过程。结果表明：CMADS V1.1数据集驱动SWAT模型对研究区域的径流变化具有较好的模拟效果,在验证期,逐日模拟的效率系数大于0.70,决定系数大于0.75,达到了模型评价标准。在流域水量平衡各项中,地表径流和蒸散发为主要的输出项,分别占降水量的57.2%和36.2%,其中蒸散发量年际变化较为平稳。降水量、地表径流量、土壤对地下水补给、地下侧流量、蒸散发量最大值均出现在6月,最小值均出现在1月。流域径流量以地表径流为主,其在各个月份与月降水变化趋势基本一致。而基流量较小,且各月基流量对降水量的响应并不显著。 相似文献
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为了检验陆面模式SSiB耦合TOPMODEL模型对流域水量平衡模拟结果的影响,用原始SSiB与TOPMODEL按饱和区和非饱和区两种方案耦合的耦合模型(下称SSiBT)进行长江下游青弋江流域水文的数值试验,通过耦合模型与原始SSiB模式模拟结果的比较,并利用流域实测逐日流量和水量平衡资料,揭示了流域水文模拟结果对SSiB耦合TOPMODEL的响应和原因.结果表明:(1)与原始SSiB的模拟结果相比,SSiBT增加了土壤湿度的模拟结果和各层土壤湿度之间的差异,流域蒸散发增加而总径流减小.(2)原始SSiB不能准确地将径流在地表径流和基流之间分配,对于较小的土壤饱和导水率,原始SSiB产生过多的地表径流和洪峰流量;对于较大的土壤饱和导水率又产生过多的基流和明显偏小的洪峰流量.(3)即使土壤饱和导水率大到不会产生超渗产流,由于饱和区的存在,SSiBT在洪水期间也能产生足够大的地表径流,从而形成洪峰流量.由于考虑了地形引起的土壤湿度空间非均匀形成的饱和区产流,SSiBT改善了雨季逐日流量的模拟结果. 相似文献
7.
基于SWAT模型的汉江流域径流模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
应用SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)分布式水文模型对汉江流域1971-2000年30年逐月径流进行了模拟.结果表明:模型模拟精度高于评价标准(模拟效率Ens>0.5,相关系数r 2>0.6),SWAT模型适用于汉江流域的径流模拟;水量平衡各要素中,30年月、年平均蒸散发量、地表径流量、土壤对地下水补给量、土壤含水变化量、地下水侧流量分别占降水量的55.97%、25.88%、17.64%、0.26%、0.25%,蒸散发是该流域水量的主要输出项;各月30年平均降水量变化趋势与地表径流量变化趋势较一致,而与基流量变化趋势一致性较差;30年流域降水量年变化趋势与地表径流量、基流量的变化趋势较一致;30年月、年地表径流量对降水的响应程度高于基流. 相似文献
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本研究在对SWAT模型进行参数化的基础上,采用淮河干流吴家渡和鲁台子水文控制站1971-1990年和1991-2014年的月径流观测数据对SWAT模型进行了率定和验证。模拟效果评估结果显示：不论是率定期还是验证期,Nash-Sutcliffe系数Ens和确定系数R2均>0.8,相对误差Re<1%,模型能够较好地再现月尺度的降雨-径流过程。淮河中上游年径流深线性变化趋势不明显,但子流域空间差异显著,径流深上游及南部呈线性减小趋势,其他子流域呈增大趋势。从年水量平衡要素来看,蒸散量和渗漏量对水量平衡贡献最大。主成分分析表明,平均气温、降水量及蒸散量是淮河中上游水文要素变化的关键因子。剔除人为因素的影响,1971-2014年淮河中上游地区水资源量呈减少趋势,这可能是年平均气温升高、年降 水量略有减少以及年蒸散量减少综合作用的结果。本文研究成果可为淮河中上游水资源管理和相关政策的制定提供技术支撑。 相似文献
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基于能量平衡的融雪期雪层水热过程研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
积雪融化过程是能量驱动下积雪相态变化的物理过程,受众多因素影响。为定量描述积雪消融过程,本文依据能量平衡和水量平衡原理,构建单层融雪模型。利用该模型分析了天山北坡军塘湖流域点尺度积雪融化过程中能量项和融雪水量变化情况,模型模拟结果与实测值较为符合,该模型有助于理解季节性积雪区积雪融化物理变化过程,为寒区水资源的管理和利用等提供理论依据。 相似文献
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基于概念模型的麦田土壤水分动态模拟研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
农田土壤水分模拟是农业用水管理的重要依据。以根区土体水量平衡方程为依据,考虑根区下界面水分通量,构建了农田土壤水分变化模拟模型,该模型由作物蒸散量模型、根区下界面水分通量模型以及水量平衡方程等组成。采用山西水利职业技术学院试验基地2007年和2008年2个年度冬小麦试验资料,确定了模型参数。结果表明,土壤储水量模拟计算值与实测值有较好的一致性,其相关系数达到0.9555;F检验结果达到极显著水平,所建立的麦田土壤水分动态模型可用于作物蒸散量、根区下界面水分通量和田间土壤水分的模拟计算;计算精度平均达到3%～11%。表明该模型可较好地描述农田士壤水分转化过程。 相似文献
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A. N. Bugaets B. I. Gartsman A. A. Tereshkina L. V. Gonchukov N. D. Bugaets N. Yu. Sidorenko N. F. Pshenichnikova S. M. Krasnopeyev 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(5):323-331
The research describes the experience of using digital models (of terrain, soil, and vegetation) for the underlying surface of the catchment for developing the spatial structure of the open-source SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The hydrological regime for the Komarovka River basin (616 km2) is simulated with a daily resolution using the data of Primorskaya water balance station and the modern observation network of Primorye Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. It is found that the calculated and measured runoff hydrographs are generally in good agreement, and the model is suitable for describing the hydrological regime of mid-latitude rivers where rainfall floods prevail. The model well reproduces average water years, underestimates the peaks caused by intense rainfall of the typhoon origin and overestimates baseflow. 相似文献
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We investigate the formation process and pathways of deep water masses in a coupled ice–ocean model of the Arctic and North
Atlantic Oceans. The intent is to determine the relative roles of these water masses from the different source regions (Arctic
Ocean, Nordic Seas, and Subpolar Atlantic) in the meridional overturning circulation. The model exhibits significant decadal
variability in the deep western boundary current and the overturning circulation. We use detailed diagnostics to understand
the process of water mass formation in the model and the resulting effects on the North Atlantic overturning circulation.
Particular emphasis is given to the multiple sources of North Atlantic Deep Water, the dominant deep water masses of the world
ocean. The correct balance of Labrador Sea, Greenland Sea and Norwegian Sea sources is difficult to achieve in climate models,
owing to small-scale sinking and convection processes. The global overturning circulation is described as a function of potential
temperature and salinity, which more clearly signifies dynamical processes and clarifies resolution problems inherent to the
high latitude oceans. We find that fluxes of deep water masses through various passages in the model are higher than observed
estimates. Despite the excessive volume flux, the Nordic Seas overflow waters are diluted by strong mixing and enter the Labrador
Sea at a lighter density. Through strong subpolar convection, these waters along with other North Atlantic water masses are
converted into the densest waters [similar density to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)] in the North Atlantic. We describe the
diminished role of salinity in the Labrador Sea, where a shortage of buoyant surface water (or excess of high salinity water)
leads to overly strong convection. The result is that the Atlantic overturning circulation in the model is very sensitive
to the surface heat flux in the Labrador Sea and hence is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. As strong subpolar
convection is found in other models, we discuss broader implications. 相似文献
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本文利用甘肃省西峰市农业气象试验站非灌溉地冬小麦田间土壤水分资料、气候资料,分析了不同年型农田土壤水分的时空变化特征,从土壤水分平衡方程出发,讨论了冬小麦返青至成熟期间降水量、作物耗水量、渗漏量和土壤储水量变化各平衡分量的动态变化及其相互关系。对冬小麦产量与不同作物发育期的作物耗水量之间进行相关普查,结果表明影响小麦产量最显著的时段是拔节～孕穗期。分别运用物理统计和经验统计方法建立了冬小麦产量与作物耗水量的关系模型,认为后者模拟效果较好。 相似文献
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The water balance in C'hina is studied in this paper, which follows the papers on the radiation balance and the heat balance in China. Using the data from more than 200 meteorological stations for 1961-1970 and about 200 hydrometric stations bcforc1972, we, through the equation of water balance, have calculated the monthly and annual amounts of precipitation, evaporation, run-off and soil water variation. The water balance and the hydroclimatological characteristics of China arc given. 相似文献
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基于螺旋度的中尺度平衡方程及非平衡流诊断方法 总被引：7，自引：5，他引：7
在回顾大尺度准地转平衡理论、各种平衡方程、平衡模式及非平衡流诊断工具的基础上,对平衡方程、非平衡方程给出了具体的定义.并在此基础上,进一步考虑中尺度强对流天气系统的特征,指出中尺度也有平衡运动的存在.但是由于中尺度对流系统中强烈的辐散风效应以及不可忽略的垂直运动的作用,以散度方程为基础的各种近似平衡方程不足以描述中尺度强对流天气系统的平衡运动,进而提出了从能够同时考虑旋转、辐散及垂直运动作用的螺旋度方程出发,寻找中尺度的平衡方程.在所得的平衡方程基础上,给出了相应的平衡模式和非平衡方程.并进一步将非平衡方程分解,用来诊断非平衡过程的平衡破坏和平衡恢复两个阶段,同时将它们与水平螺旋度和垂直螺旋度联系起来. 相似文献
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M. V. Bolgov E. A. Korobkina M. D. Trubetskova I. A. Filippova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(10):639-645
The main components ofthe Caspian Sea water balance and water level are assessed. Stochastic models of time series of the water balance components are proposed ustng morphometric dependences specified by creating and processing digital elevation models for the flooded areas. The sea level forecast is obtained by the method of simulation modeling based on algorithms for the generation of Markovian random sequences with non-Gaussian marginal distributions. 相似文献
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This paper evaluates the performance of eight state-of-art IPCC-AR4 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models in their representation of regional characteristics of atmospheric water balance over South Asia. The results presented here are the regional climate change scenarios of atmospheric water balance components, precipitation, moisture convergence and evaporation (P, C and E) up to the end of the twenty-second century based on IPCC AR4 modelling experiments conducted for (A1B) future greenhouse gas emission scenario. The AOGCMs, despite their relatively coarse resolution, have shown a reasonable skill in depicting the hydrological cycle over the South Asian region. However, considerable biases do exist with reference to the observed atmospheric water balance and also inter-model differences. The monsoon rainfall and atmospheric water balance changes under A1B scenario are discussed in detail. Spatial patterns of rainfall change projections indicate maximum increase over northwest India in most of the models, but changes in the atmospheric water balance are generally widespread over South Asia. While the scenarios presented in this study are indicative of the expected range of rainfall and water balance changes, it must be noted that the quantitative estimates still have large uncertainties associated with them. 相似文献
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《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(1):59-72
Projections of future climate change are plagued with uncertainties, causing difficulties for planners taking decisions on adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment framework that allows the identification of adaptation strategies that are robust (i.e. insensitive) to climate change uncertainties. The framework is applied to a case study of water resources management in the East of England, more specifically to the Anglian Water Services’ 25 year Water Resource Plan (WRP). The paper presents a local sensitivity analysis (a ‘one-at-a-time’ experiment) of the various elements of the modelling framework (e.g., emissions of greenhouse gases, climate sensitivity and global climate models) in order to determine whether or not a decision to adapt to climate change is sensitive to uncertainty in those elements.Water resources are found to be sensitive to uncertainties in regional climate response (from general circulation models and dynamical downscaling), in climate sensitivity and in climate impacts. Aerosol forcing and greenhouse gas emissions uncertainties are also important, whereas uncertainties from ocean mixing and the carbon cycle are not. Despite these large uncertainties, Anglian Water Services’ WRP remains robust to the climate change uncertainties sampled because of the adaptation options being considered (e.g. extension of water treatment works), because the climate model used for their planning (HadCM3) predicts drier conditions than other models, and because ‘one-at-a-time’ experiments do not sample the combination of different extremes in the uncertainty range of parameters. This research raises the question of how much certainty is required in climate change projections to justify investment in adaptation measures, and whether such certainty can be delivered. 相似文献