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Roman Mendelevitch 《Climatic change》2018,150(1-2):57-72
The achieved international consensus on the 1.5–2 °C target entails that most of current fossil fuel reserves must remain unburned. A major contribution has to come from coal as both the most abundant and the most emission-intensive fuel. Currently, a majority of climate policies aiming at reducing coal consumption are directed towards the demand side. In the absence of a global carbon-pricing regime, these policies are prone to carbon leakage and other adverse effects. Supply-side climate policies present an alternative and increasingly discussed approach to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels. In this article, I employ a numerical model of the international steam coal market to examine two supply-side policies that are currently discussed in academic literature and by policy-makers, alike: (1) a production subsidy reform introduced in major coal-producing countries and (2) a globally implemented moratorium on new coal mines. The model simulates global patterns of coal supply, demand, and international trade, with endogenous investment in coal production and transportation capacities. I find that mere production subsidy removal, while associated with a small positive total welfare effect, leads to a minor reduction of global emissions. By contrast, a mine moratorium induces a much more pronounced reduction in global coal consumption by effectively limiting coal availability and strongly increasing prices. Depending on the specification of reserves, the moratorium can induce a coal consumption path consistent with the 1.5–2 °C target. 相似文献
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The development of coal mine methane (CMM) projects is subject to various kinds of risk, one of these being their highly variable methane content. In this study, a new methodology is proposed to reflect the impact of this uncertainty on a negotiated Certified Emission Reduction (CER) price, which is based on the available information. To simulate a process of price negotiation the Rubinstein-Ståhl bargaining game is utilized, where a buyer’s discount factor is unknown. It is assumed that a buyer’s willingness to accomplish price negotiations depends on the CER uncertainty. The bargaining model has been extended by introducing dependence of its three parameters on the probability of a failure to fulfil the contracted CER amount. To quantify this probability, we develop a conditional distribution given information on the point estimate of methane amount for the project under consideration, and on the distribution of available estimates from coal mines having similar characteristics. The proposed approach is applied to a particular CMM capture and utilization project in Anhui province, China. The results indicate that the uncertainty influence is significant, particularly when the credibility of a seller increases, i.e. the probability of a failure to fulfil the project decreases. The analysis can be of use to both negotiating parties at an early stage of a comprehensive CMM project planning. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTThe administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to stop the ongoing spiralling down of the U.S. coal industry. We discuss the origins of the decline and assess the effects of policy interventions by the Trump administration. We find that, with fierce competition from natural gas and renewables, a further decrease of coal consumption must be expected by the old and inefficient U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet. By contrast, we consider the overly optimistic (for coal producers) view of the U.S. Energy Information Agency, and test whether the tide for the U.S. coal industry could turn as a result of three potential support measures: (i) revoking the Clean Power Plan (CPP); (ii) facilitating access to the booming Asian market; and (iii) enhanced support for Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology. We investigate the short-term and long-term effects on U.S. coal production using a comprehensive partial equilibrium model of the world steam coal market, COALMOD-World (Holz, Haftendorn, Mendelevitch, & von Hirschhausen, 2016). We find that revoking the CPP could stop the downward trend of steam coal consumption in the U.S., but even allowing for additional exports, will not lead to a return of U.S. coal production to the levels of the 2000s, that is, over 900?Mt per year. When global steam coal use is aligned with the 2°C climate target, U.S. steam coal production drops to around 100?Mt per year by 2030 and below 50?Mt by 2050, even if CCTS is available and exports via the U.S. West Coast is possible.Key policy insights
Declining U.S. coal use is primarily caused by competition from natural gas and renewables not by environmental regulation of the coal sector.
Without substantial policy support, U.S. coal-fired generation capacity will continue to decline rapidly.
Revoking the Clean Power Plan will lead to about one eighth higher U.S. coal production in the next years.
Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage does not prevent the rapid decline of coal use required under stringent climate policy.
Even in the most extreme pro-coal scenarios with additional export possibilities, U.S. coal production will not return to its pre-2010 levels.
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Wind-Driven, Double-Gyre, Ocean Circulation in a Reduced-Gravity, 2.5-Layer, Lattice Boltzmann Model
A coupled lattice Boltzmann （LB） model with second-order accuracy is applied to the reduced-gravity, shallow water, 2.5-layer model for wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation. By introducing the secondorder integral approximation for the collision operator, the model becomes fully explicit. The Coriolis force and other external forces are included in the model with second-order accuracy, which is consistent with the discretization accuracy of the LB equation. The feature of the multiple equilibria solutions is found in the numerical experiments under different Reynolds numbers based on this LB scheme. With the Reynolds number increasing from 3000 to 4000, the solution of this model is destabilized from the anti-symmetric double-gyre solution to the subtropic gyre solution and then to the subpolar gyre solution. The transitions between these equilibria states are also found in some parameter ranges. The time-dependent variability of the circulation based on this LB simulation is also discussed for varying viscosity regimes. The flow of this model exhibits oscillations with different timescales varying from subannual to interannual. The corresponding statistical oscillation modes are obtained by spectral analysis. By analyzing the spatiotemporal structures of these modes, it is found that the subannual oscillation with a 9-month period originates from the barotropic Rossby basin mode, and the interarmual oscillations with periods ranging from 1.5 years to 4.6 years originate from the recirculation gyre modes, which include the barotropic and the baroclinic recirculation gyre modes. 相似文献
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作物布局,耕作制度,栽培技术与棉铃虫调控 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
分析了８０年代以来作物布局、耕作制度、栽培技术的变化,指出这些变化与棉铃虫为害有着密切的关系,从这一角度提出了调控棉铃虫的措施。 相似文献
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《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》1988,(12)
乌鲁木齐县砖厂位于四平路,建于1970年9月,1980年开始了大批量的生产,固定资产原值250万元,净值174万元,年设计能力有红砖5000万块,实际能力达4000万块;产品项目有红砖、空心砖、水泥预制构件、铺路基的道砸石、珍珠岩保温瓦、制鞋等六种, 相似文献
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A photochemical scheme which includes a detailed treatment of multiple scattering up to solar zenith angles of 96° (developed for use in a GCM) has been used to study partitioning within chemical families. Attention is drawn to the different zenith angle dependence of diffuse radiation for the two spectral regions <310 nm and >310 nm. The effect that this has on the so-called 40 km ozone problem is discussed. The importance of correctly including multiple scattering for polar ozone studies is emphasised. 相似文献
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Gao Feng Chen Xiaoling Yang Wenfu Wang Wenwen Shi Lijiang Zhang Xiaolong Liu Yaomeng Tian Yaofei 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,148(3-4):955-966
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Under the background of global warming, an analysis of the trend and variability of rainfall time series on various timescales is very important for... 相似文献
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陆帼英 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》1996,19(5):48-51
新疆是我国第二大牧区，重要的畜牧业生产基地。畜牧业生产在自治区国瓦经济中占有重要的地位。几十年来，自治区的畜牧业有了很大的发展，但由于牧区生产、改造需要的投入较大，目前的基础设施仍较薄弱，生产方式落后，经营单一、粗放，效益低下。新疆气象业务中心（气象台）一直把对牧区的防灾减灾工作作为一项重要的政治任务，一项重要的为大农业服务的任务来认真组织，热情服务。40余年来通过科学研究、技术开发和服务实践，我们逐步认识了牧区防灾减灾的客观规律，把牧区防灾减灾服务从转场服务为主转变为以预防为主、防治结合的监测、… 相似文献
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