共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 78 毫秒
1.
该文用Mann-Kendall方法对近50年海河流域山区20个子流域的径流及降水的变化趋势进行了显著性检验, 结合降水, 径流及气温的年代距平值的同步分析以及径流对气候变化的敏感性研究结果, 对近50年海河流域径流的变化趋势, 提出了一个半定量分析的研究思路和方法。提出影响径流变化的三种类型:以气候暖干化为主, 人类活动为辅的径流显著衰减型;以人类活动为主, 气候暖干化为辅的径流显著衰减型;人类活动与气候变异都不明显, 径流无显著变化的类型。分析结果展示了气候、人类活动与水之间的相互作用。这种相互作用, 给径流的变化趋势分析和成因分析带来了复杂性与困难, 也给气候变化对水资源的影响研究提出了挑战。 相似文献
2.
A sustainable water resources management depends on sound information about the impacts of climate change. This information is, however, not easily derived because natural runoff variability interferes with the climate change signal. This study presents a procedure that leads to robust estimates of magnitude and Time Of Emergence (TOE) of climate-induced hydrological change that also account for the natural variability contained in the time series. Firstly, natural variability of 189 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland is sampled for 10 ENSEMBLES scenarios for the control (1984–2005) and two scenario periods (near future: 2025–2046, far future: 2074–2095) applying a bootstrap procedure. Then, the sampling distributions of mean monthly runoff are tested for significant differences with the Wilcoxon-Mann–Whitney test and for effect size with Cliff’s delta d. Finally, the TOE of a climate change induced hydrological change is determined when at least eight out of the ten hydrological projections significantly differ from natural variability. The results show that the TOE occurs in the near future period except for high-elevated catchments in late summer. The significant hydrological projections in the near future correspond, however, to only minor runoff changes. In the far future, hydrological change is statistically significant and runoff changes are substantial. Temperature change is the most important factor determining hydrological change in this mountainous region. Therefore, hydrological change depends strongly on a catchment’s mean elevation. Considering that the hydrological changes are predicted to be robust in the near future highlights the importance of accounting for these changes in water resources planning. 相似文献
3.
V. A. Bel’chikov A. Ya. Polunin Yu. A. Simonov A. V. Khristoforov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2013,38(2):119-125
Presented is a method of studying possible climate-driven changes of river runoff characteristics, according to which the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are used for computing the climate system impact, whereas the response of a watershed to given disturbance is estimated using the model of runoff formation in a river basin. The study is carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin. Estimates of possible changes (relative to the reference period) by the middle and late 21st century of such water regime characteristics as mean annual and maximum water discharge, as well as mean discharge values for the spring, summer-fall and winter seasons, are presented. 相似文献
4.
Responses of global ocean circulation and temperature to freshwater runoff from major rivers were studied by blocking regional runoff in the global ocean general circulation model(OGCM)developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Runoff into the tropical Atlantic,the western North Pacific,and the Bay of Bengal and northern Arabian Sea were selectively blocked.The blocking of river runoff first resulted in a salinity increase near the river mouths(2 practical salinity units).The saltier and,therefore,denser water was then transported to higher latitudes in the North Atlantic,North Pacific,and southern Indian Ocean by the mean currents.The subsequent density contrasts between northern and southern hemispheric oceans resulted in changes in major ocean currents.These anomalous ocean currents lead to significant temperature changes(1°C-2°C)by the resulting anomalous heat transports.The current and temperature anomalies created by the blocked river runoff propagated from one ocean basin to others via coastal and equatorial Kelvin waves.This study suggests that river runoff may be playing an important role in oceanic salinity,temperature,and circulations;and that partially or fully blocking major rivers to divert freshwater for societal purposes might significantly change ocean salinity,circulations,temperature,and atmospheric climate.Further studies are necessary to assess the role of river runoff in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. 相似文献
5.
The method of the plotting of probabilistic distributions of maximum runoff characteristics on the base of the dynamic-stochastic
model of the river runoff formation, enabling to take account of the changes in runoff formation conditions caused by the
anthropogenic activity at the river catchment, is described. To approximate the plotted distributions, it is proposed to use
Johnson distribution where one of parameters is assumed to be equal to the deterministic estimate of the limiting value of
the runoff characteristic. It is assumed that such an approach will increase the accuracy of the determination of the runoff
values of small exceedance probabilities. The potential of the proposed method is shown by the example of determination of
probabilistic characteristics of the River Vyatka maximum runoff. 相似文献
6.
Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the UK. Part 1: baseline climate 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Assessing future climate and its potential implications on river flows is a key challenge facing water resource planners. Sound, scientifically-based advice to decision makers also needs to incorporate information on the uncertainty in the results. Moreover, existing bias in the reproduction of the ‘current’ (or baseline) river flow regime is likely to transfer to the simulations of flow in future time horizons, and it is thus critical to undertake baseline flow assessment while undertaking future impacts studies. This paper investigates the three main sources of uncertainty surrounding climate change impact studies on river flows: uncertainty in GCMs, in downscaling techniques and in hydrological modelling. The study looked at four British catchments’ flow series simulated by a lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff model with observed and GCM-derived rainfall series representative of the baseline time horizon (1961–1990). A block-resample technique was used to assess climate variability, either from observed records (natural variability) or reproduced by GCMs. Variations in mean monthly flows due to hydrological model uncertainty from different model structures or model parameters were also evaluated. Three GCMs (HadCM3, CCGCM2, and CSIRO-mk2) and two downscaling techniques (SDSM and HadRM3) were considered. Results showed that for all four catchments, GCM uncertainty is generally larger than downscaling uncertainty, and both are consistently greater than uncertainty from hydrological modelling or natural variability. No GCM or downscaling technique was found to be significantly better or to have a systematic bias smaller than the others. This highlights the need to consider more than one GCM and downscaling technique in impact studies, and to assess the bias they introduce when modelling river flows. 相似文献
7.
Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff for Kaidu River Basin in arid region of northwest China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Much attention has recently been focused on the effects that climate variability and human activities have had on runoff. In this study, data from the Kaidu River Basin in the arid region of northwest China were analyzed to investigate changes in annual runoff during the period of 1960–2009. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and the Mann–Kendall–Sneyers test were used to identify trend and step change point in the annual runoff. It was found that the basin had a significant increasing trend in annual runoff. Step change point in annual runoff was identified in the basin, which occurred in the year around 1993 dividing the long-term runoff series into a natural period (1960–1993) and a human-induced period (1994–2009). Then, the hydrologic sensitivity analysis method was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability and human activities on mean annual runoff for the human-induced period based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In 1994–2009, climate variability was the main factor that increased runoff with contribution of 90.5 %, while the increasing percentage due to human activities only accounted for 9.5 %, showing that runoff in the Kaidu River Basin is more sensitive to climate variability than human activities. This study quantitatively distinguishes the effects between climate variability and human activities on runoff, which can do duty for a reference for regional water resources assessment and management. 相似文献
8.
V. Yu. Georgievskii E. A. Grek E. N. Grek A. G. Lobanova T. G. Molchanova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(10):633-638
Long-term changes in peak spring runoff and daily minimum winter and summer-autumn runoff in the Volga River basin are analyzed based on observational data from 94 gaging stations. It is revealed that climate changes in the basin during the period from the late 1970s till the middle of the 1980s led to the significant increase in minimum discharge, but maximum runoff changed ambiguously. The regions with the disturbed uniformity of the series of extreme values of river runoff are identified. Changes in the values of high runoff, above the 10% probability, and low runoff, below the 90% probability, are analyzed for current climate conditions. Under nonstationary conditions, it is recommended to assess the probability characteristics of extreme runoff with compound distribution curves or based on the Bayesian approach. 相似文献
9.
气候变化对汉江上游径流的影响 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
根据汉江上游安康以上流域1961-2005年历年逐月气温和降水量资料,统计分析了近45 a流域气候变化的基本特点。同时,通过对各站气温、降水量与安康站径流量的相关计算,建立了天然径流量气候模型,并分析了径流量对气候变化响应的敏感性。结果表明：1) 近45 a来汉江上游安康以上流域的年平均气温呈上升趋势;降水量呈递减趋势,90年代以后减少更为显著。2) 在过去45 a中,汉江上游径流量总体呈下降趋势;1961年以来,汉江上游径流量大体经历了两个丰水段和两个枯水段;1985年发生跃变,以前呈微弱的上升趋势,以后呈下降趋势。3) 径流量与区域年平均气温呈负相关,而与年降水量呈较显著的正相关,年径流量对降水变化的响应较其对气温变化的响应更为敏感。 相似文献
10.
根据汉江上游安康以上流域1961-2005年历年逐月气温和降水量资料,统计分析了近45 a流域气候变化的基本特点。同时,通过对各站气温、降水量与安康站径流量的相关计算,建立了天然径流量气候模型,并分析了径流量对气候变化响应的敏感性。结果表明：1) 近45 a来汉江上游安康以上流域的年平均气温呈上升趋势;降水量呈递减趋势,90年代以后减少更为显著。2) 在过去45 a中,汉江上游径流量总体呈下降趋势;1961年以来,汉江上游径流量大体经历了两个丰水段和两个枯水段;1985年发生跃变,以前呈微弱的上升趋势,以后呈下降趋势。3) 径流量与区域年平均气温呈负相关,而与年降水量呈较显著的正相关,年径流量对降水变化的响应较其对气温变化的响应更为敏感。 相似文献
11.
黄河断流事件的发生是人为因素与自然因素———人类生产活动用水量急增与天然径流量骤减共同作用的结果。自然因素作为天然背景具有不可低估的作用,在引起黄河断流的所有气候因子中,降水减少的贡献最显著,其次是蒸发增加的影响。当代黄河断流事件的发生和持续加重似与El Nin~o事件的频繁发生及其持续强劲有某种关联,本文即通过对黄河径流及其流域内的降水、蒸发、气温等方面气候因素与El Nin~o事件的遥相关作用进行分析,寻求导致黄河径流减少的可能原因,从而揭示黄河断流与El Nin~o事件的联系。结果表明,通常情况下,ElNin~o事件发生时,黄河流域年平均降水量减少10.35%,可造成黄河年径流减少12.95%(含有来自蒸发增加所造成的影响),约相当于减少73.45×108m3的水量。随El Ni~no事件强度的加深,降水量与径流量均迅速递减,强El Nin~o事件黄河流域年平均降水量减少20.43%,黄河径流量减少25.59%(147.17×108m3);1997年断流最严重时降水减少30.62%,径流骤减40.27%(229.96×108m3)。可见El Ni~no事件对黄河断流所造成的影响是相当深刻的。 相似文献
12.
Changes are considered in the runoff regime of Russian rivers and in the water inflow to reservoirs as a result of the climate warming observed in the country since the second half of the 1970s. Based on the analysis of long–term observational data on water inflow to 41 large reservoirs with the volume of 10 x 106 m3, it is shown that considerable changes in its intraannual distribution have occurred in the recent decades. These changes are characterized, in particular, by the inflow increase during the cold season and by the runoff variability increasing in winter and summer–autumn seasons. The growth of the number of severe hydrological events, especially of flash floods induced by rainfalls, has been registered in the recent decades. Potential future changes in water inflow to reservoirs are considered in accordance with the scenarios of further climate warming. It is justified that rules of using water resources of reservoirs should be corrected taking into account the observed changes in the river water inflow regime. 相似文献
13.
The regularities of changes in the parameters of the hydrological regime of the Lower Volga are considered using data of routine observations at gaging stations and data of field studies carried out by the specialists of Zubov State Oceanographic Institute in 2006–2017. The main modern trends are revealed for runoff and water level, water temperature, and ice phenomena as well as for the duration of flooding of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain during the spring flood. The parameters are compared for natural and regulated Volga River runoff conditions. It is shown that considerable variation in the duration of flooding of floodplains, in water temperature, and heat flow during the spring flood under modern conditions is caused both by runoff operation and by increase in the anthropogenic load on the area of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain in the recent decades. 相似文献
14.
利用河西内陆河水文代表站1959-2004年逐月径流量资料、内陆河流域灌溉区1949-2001年耕地面积及代表站1961-2005年的气象资料, 通过对径流量进行正态化处理来确定径流量Z指数, 并以径流量Z指数作为径流干旱指数, 对旱涝等级进行划分; 考虑径流量Z指数的旱涝等级与农业灌溉用水实际情况之间的关系, 给出了径流量Z指数的灌溉指标。将径流量转化为降水量, 改进Palmer旱度模式, 且在作改进后, 又将潜在蒸散量的计算法由利用桑斯威特公式改为利用彭曼公式。结果表明:将径流量考虑到Palmer干旱指数中并改变蒸散量的算法, 使得该指数对河西灌溉区干旱情况的监测均有所改善。对照河西地区的干旱事件, 径流量Z指数监测到的干旱情况, 比Palmer干旱指数改进前、后监测到的干旱情况效果更佳。径流量Z指数能更真实地反映河西灌溉区干旱状况。 相似文献
15.
Seasonal Prediction of the Yangtze River Runoff Using a Partial Least Squares Regression Model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
As the longest river in Asia and the third-longest river in the world, the Yangtze River drains a large land area of the Eurasian continent. Seasonal prediction of the Yangtze River runoff is of crucial importance yet is a challenging issue. In this study, observed monthly runoff data are used to develop a new Yangtze River runoff index (YRI) for the 1950–2016 period. The YRI is not only able to quantify the runoff state of the Yangtze River but is also able to evaluate the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The YRI is highly correlated with summer precipitation in the Yangtze River basin. It can also capture the principal components of the EASM circulation system.
To predict the Yangtze River summer runoff, we employed a partial least squares (PLS) regression method to seek sea surface temperature (SST) modes in the previous winter associated with the YRI time series. The findings indicate that the first SST mode exhibits a strong link with the decaying phase of El Niño (or La Niña), while the second SST mode is related to a persistant mega-La Niña (or mega-El Niño). These suggest that an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or mega-ENSO may be an essential source of predictability for the Yangtze River summer runoff. After a 47-year training period (1950–1996), a physical-empirical PLS model is built then a 3-month-lead forecast is used to validate the model from 1997 to 2016. The PLS model exhibits promising predictive skill that is better than some state-of-the-art reanalysis data systems. 相似文献
16.
We evaluate water budget components—namely, soil moisture, runoff, evapotranspiration, and terrestrial water storage (TWS)—simulated by the Noah land surface model with multi-parameterization options (Noah-MP) in China, a large geographic domain challenging for hydrological modeling due to poor observational data and a lack of one single parameterization that can fit for complex hydrological processes. By comparing the model simulations with multi-source reference data, we show that Noah-MP can generally reproduce the overall spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and evapotranspiration over six major river basins, with the annual correlation coefficients generally greater than 0.8 and the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient exceeding 0.5. Among the six basins evaluated, the best model performance is seen over the Huaihe River basin. The temporal trend of the modeled TWS anomalies agrees well with GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) observations, capturing major flood and drought events in different basins. Experiments with 12 selected physical parameterization options show that the runoff parameterization has a stronger impact on the simulated soil moisture–runoff–evapotranspiration relationships than the soil moisture factor for stomatal resistance schemes, a result consistent with previous studies. Overall, Noah-MP driven by GLDAS forcing simulates the hydrological variables well, except for the Songliao basin in northeastern China, likely because this is a transitional region with extensive freeze–thaw activity, while representations of human activities may also help improve the model performance. 相似文献
17.
松花江、辽河流域实测径流的变化趋势及其与降水的关系 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用松花江、辽河流域内132个降水测站1961-2000年40年的月降水资料,以及水文测站哈尔滨、江桥、铁岭1956-2000年45年的月实测径流量资料,分析松花江、辽河流域实测径流的变化趋势,并探讨夏季径流与同期降水的相关性。结果表明：松花江流域的年实测径流量呈现较微弱的下降趋势,而辽河流域年实测径流呈现显著的下降趋势;两流域径流量均存在着一致的阶段性丰枯周期变化;最显著的一次波动是夏季实测径流由20世纪60年代中后期呈现的显著下降趋势转为80年代初期的明显上升趋势;降水是影响松花江、辽河流域夏季实测径流的一个重要气候因素。初步揭示了人类活动、下垫面改变对实测径流的影响。 相似文献
18.
Jiang Chong Li Daiqing Gao Yanni Liu Wenfeng Zhang Linbo 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(1-2):667-681
Under the impacts of climate variability and human activities, there is violent fluctuation for streamflow in the large basins in China. Therefore, it is crucial to separate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow fluctuation for better water resources planning and management. In this study, the Three Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR) was chosen as the study area. Long-term hydrological data for the TRHR were collected in order to investigate the changes in annual runoff during the period of 1956–2012. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test, moving t test, Pettitt test, Mann–Kendall–Sneyers test, and the cumulative anomaly curve were used to identify trends and change points in the hydro-meteorological variables. Change point in runoff was identified in the three basins, which respectively occurred around the years 1989 and 1993, dividing the long-term runoff series into a natural period and a human-induced period. Then, the hydrologic sensitivity analysis method was employed to evaluate the effects of climate variability and human activities on mean annual runoff for the human-induced period based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In the human-induced period, climate variability was the main factor that increased (reduced) runoff in LRB and YARB (YRB) with contribution of more than 90 %, while the increasing (decreasing) percentage due to human activities only accounted for less than 10 %, showing that runoff in the TRHR is more sensitive to climate variability than human activities. The intra-annual distribution of runoff shifted gradually from a double peak pattern to a single peak pattern, which was mainly influenced by atmospheric circulation in the summer and autumn. The inter-annual variation in runoff was jointly controlled by the East Asian monsoon, the westerly, and Tibetan Plateau monsoons.
相似文献19.
This study investigates the connections between climate fluctuations and sardine and anchovy production in the NW Mediterranean, taking the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) as an indicator of climate variability. The basic working hypothesis is that sardine and anchovy productivity is influenced by the WeMOi, a proxy for the local environmental conditions such as sea surface temperature (SST) and river runoff. Sardine and anchovy landings (1974–2009) in the Catalan Coast and landings per unit of effort (LPUE) were used as proxy for recruitment. The results demonstrated a clear link between climate fluctuations and sardine and anchovy production. Positive WeMOi values were significantly correlated with low SST, high river runoff and high LPUE, that is, with better-than-average recruitment of sardine and anchovy. Conversely, negative WeMOi values were associated with high SST, low river runoff and low LPUE. During the negative WeMOi phases (such as that at the end of the analyzed period), environmental conditions are unfavourable for the overall biological productivity in the NW Mediterranean and would decrease the survival, growth, condition and reproduction of sardine and anchovy during their life cycle. Despite the evidences on the appropriateness of the NAOi as an indicator of the climate in Europe and its impact on some biological variables, we suggest that using a regional index, such as the WeMOi, can provide a more accurate representation of the environmental conditions affecting small pelagic fish production in the NW Mediterranean. 相似文献
20.
辽河流域属于气候变暖较为显著区域,增温幅度比全球和全国的增温幅度都要高。同时辽河流域也是水资源较为匮乏且需求量大的地区,因此气候变化对水资源影响问题也更值得关注。基于长期历史观测气象水文数据和未来不同情景下气候变化预估资料,建立评估气候变化与径流量的关系,预估未来气候变化对径流量的可能影响,为辽河流域应对气候变化决策提供科学依据。结果表明:1961—2020年,辽河流域气温为持续上升趋势,降水没有明显的增减趋势,但存在阶段性变化;辽河流域降水量与径流量有较好的相关关系,具有较为一致的长期变化趋势与特征,年降水量与径流量相关数达到0.6以上。日降水量与径流量相关分析表明,降水发生后次日且为大雨降水等级(即日降水量≥25 mm)时,两者相关系数可高达0.85;敏感性试验和模式模拟试验表明,径流量对气候变化有明显的响应,降水增加(减少)、气温降低(升高),则径流量增加(减少);在未来RCP8.5排放情景下气温升高趋势最为明显,未来径流量也为显著增加趋势;RCP2.6排放情景下气温增加的幅度最小,未来径流量也表现为无明显增减趋势;RCP4.5情景下,气温增加的幅度居中,未来径流量则为减少趋势。 相似文献