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1.
Peculiarities of the ice situation in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait during the cold winter of 2005/06 are considered using a set of satellite images in the visible range, accumulated at the Southern Research Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography (in Kerch). The ice conditions of the water area over the last years are examined and compared to the climatic data. 相似文献
2.
The optimized (all iterative procedures are excluded) local one-dimensional thermody-namic model of the formation and melting of ice is proposed. The numerical computation of ice cover evolution in the Kerch Strait under the influence of thermodynamic factors for the period of 5 months is carried out for the real conditions of winter of 2011/12. Thec results agree well with the available obser-vational data on the timing of ice formation and on ice thickness in the southern part of the Sea of Azov and in the Taman Bay. In combination with the full three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and taking into account diurnal variations in external factors, the model simulates the spatial distribution of ice cover formation. 相似文献
3.
渤海的海冰数值预报 总被引：33，自引：0，他引：33
根据渤海气候和冰情特点,在已有海冰模式研究基础上,提出模拟海冰增长、消融和漂移的动力－热力学模式。模式冰厚分布由开阔水、平整冰和堆积冰三要素表示。该模式已与数值天气预报模式、大气边界层模式、潮流模式联结,并于１９９０年到１９９６年在国家海洋环境预报中心进行渤海和北黄海冰情预报。其数值预报产品包括冰厚、密度集、冰速、冰外缘线、冰脊参数、局地冰厚以及接近石油平台的冰漂移轨迹等,传送到国家海洋预报台和渤海石油公司等有关用户。为了客观评价模式和检验预报结果,在逐日预报后进行统计检验。本文概述渤海冰情、卫星遥感应用、冰模式及其预报结果和检验。 相似文献
4.
Abstract Snow‐plus‐ice thickness and surface‐ice roughness data collected by a helicopter‐towed sensor package was used to identify surface‐ice properties in March 1992 AVHRR and SAR images for the land‐fast and mobile pack ice off the northern coast of Newfoundland. The sensor package consisted of an electromagnetic induction sensor and laser profilometer. Observed snow depths and ice thicknesses verified that snow‐plus‐ice thickness over undeformed ice can be obtained to an accuracy of ±10 cm. Snow‐plus‐ice thickness and surface roughness data for flight sections covering several hundred kilometres indicated the change in pack ice properties seen in images from thin, smooth coastal ice and open water conditions to thick, rough consolidated offshore pack ice. Ice charts covering the same area showed similar variations in ice conditions based on AVHRR and fixed‐wing reconnaissance data. In the ERS‐1 SAR image, low backscattering coefficients were associated with large, smooth coastal floes interspersed with areas of high backscatter indicating the presence of waves in open water areas. Backscattering coefficients were higher in the rubble areas near the inshore edge of the pack ice than in the interior of the pack ice itself. Distinguishing ice types on the basis of tone alone in SAR imagery was found to be problematic; however in combination with other remotely sensed data such as AVHRR data, SAR data will become more useful in distinguishing ice types. 相似文献
5.
6.
Inherent sea ice predictability in the rapidly changing Arctic environment of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice have typically been based on statistical regression models or on results from ensemble ice model forecasts driven by historical atmospheric forcing. However, in the rapidly changing Arctic environment, the predictability characteristics of summer ice cover could undergo important transformations. Here global coupled climate model simulations are used to assess the inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice conditions on seasonal to interannual timescales within the Community Climate System Model, version 3. The role of preconditioning of the ice cover versus intrinsic variations in determining sea ice conditions is examined using ensemble experiments initialized in January with identical ice?Cocean?Cterrestrial conditions. Assessing the divergence among the ensemble members reveals that sea ice area exhibits potential predictability during the first summer and for winter conditions after a year. The ice area exhibits little potential predictability during the spring transition season. Comparing experiments initialized with different mean ice conditions indicates that ice area in a thicker sea ice regime generally exhibits higher potential predictability for a longer period of time. In a thinner sea ice regime, winter ice conditions provide little ice area predictive capability after approximately 1?year. In all regimes, ice thickness has high potential predictability for at least 2?years. 相似文献
7.
Abstract The steady, coupled ice‐ocean circulation model of Willmott and Mysak (1989) for a meridional channel is applied to the Labrador Sea for the winter season. The model consists of a thermodynamic reduced‐gravity ocean combined with a variable thickness ice cover that is in thermal equilibrium. Upon specifying the forcing fields of surface air temperature, wind stress and water temperature along the open southern boundary, the winter climatological ice‐edge position, ice thickness, ocean circulation and temperature fields are determined in the channel domain. The sensitivity of the results to the various model parameters is examined. In particular, the optimum heat exchange coefficients for the interfaces of air‐water, ice‐water and air‐ice are found. The model ice‐edge position compares favourably with the 50% winter climatological ice concentration isoline obtained from an analysis of 32 years (1953–84) of sea‐ice concentration data. The simulations of the ocean temperature and ice thickness are also quite realistic according to the observed records available. The model is also applied to two specific winters (1981 and 1983) during which anomalous sea‐ice and weather conditions prevailed in the Labrador Sea. 相似文献
8.
我国南方输电线路覆冰极值序列重建试验 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
基于我国南方有覆冰数据记录的气象站冰厚年极值及同期气象要素观测资料,统计分析多种气象因子对覆冰年极值形成条件频次分布的影响,归纳出了最易于出现覆冰年极值的温度、风速和湿度条件。在此基础上,通过对西南地区威宁、金佛山、峨眉山和三穗4站覆冰年极值与其相应气象变量的进一步分析,建立了覆冰极值序列的回归模型。根据现有气象站电线结冰资料及其对应时段的常规气象要素资料,对气象站电线结冰年极值序列进行重建试验,试验结果表明不同气候背景下覆冰极值序列的回归模型有显著差异。独立样本的交叉检验结果显示,威宁站年极值序列的回归模型效果较理想,重建序列能够较好地模拟覆冰的极值序列。 相似文献
9.
Matti Leppäranta 《大气与海洋》2013,51(1):123-138
Abstract The modelling of sea‐ice growth is a classical problem in geophysics, which has been traditionally treated as one‐dimensional, considering only the vertical heat transfer. The modelling work commenced in the 1800s with analytic methods. These are very effective tools for examining the sea‐ice growth problem, providing a clear insight into the physical mechanisms and producing simple first‐order approximations for the ice thickness in various conditions. This paper describes the physical problem of sea‐ice growth, presents an analytical modelling framework for the problem and provides analytic solutions for different environmental conditions. 相似文献
10.
Abstract A coupled ice, ocean model for forecasting ice conditions on the Newfoundland shelf region is assessed by comparing hindcasts with satellite‐tracked ice beacon displacements and with changes in offshore ice edge location, ice thickness and southern ice extent derived from ice charts. The beacon velocity fields contain short timescale fluctuations which are not resolved by the model. The ratio of rms displacement error divided by the rms beacon displacement is 0.48 after 1 day and 0.23 after 8 days. The decrease in the scaled displacement error with increasing time is related to the short timescale motions. The skill in modelling displacement of the offshore ice edge is lower than in modelling ice displacement. Between mid‐February and mid‐April 1997, the effect of ice melt on the ice edge was a mean onshore displacement of 35 km overcoming an offshore advection of 24 km in 5 days. 相似文献
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12.
We present an analysis of the inter-annual variability of hydrography—temperature and salinity – and ice conditions at the coastal site of Tvärminne, Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea during the period 1927–2012. The aim is to analyze the natural variability and trends of the hydrographic characteristics, freezing and breakup dates, ice thickness, and the heat content during the last century. The study also includes the inter-connections between the ice season and the surface temperature and salinity in the open water season. The results showed a significant decrease of the ice season length, by almost 30 days. The maximum annual ice thickness decreased by 8 cm in the last 40 years. The surface water temperature increased by almost 1 °C and there was also an increasing trend in the heat content. The thermal memory of the system was 2–2.5 months. The surface salinity increased by 0.5 psu in the last 85 years. The results are discussed and compared to related studies. 相似文献
13.
Submarine and satellite observations show that the Arctic Ocean ice cover has undergone a large thickness reduction and a decrease in the areal extent during the last decades. Here the response of the Arctic Ocean ice cover to changes in the poleward atmospheric energy transport, F wall, is investigated using coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean column models. Two models with highly different complexity are used in order to illustrate the importance of different internal processes and the results highlight the dramatic effects of the negative ice thickness—ice volume export feedback and the positive surface albedo feedback. The steady state ice thickness as a function of F wall is determined for various model setups and defines what we call ice thickness response curves. When a variable surface albedo and snow precipitation is included, a complex response curve appears with two distinct regimes: a perennial ice cover regime with a fairly linear response and a less responsive seasonal ice cover regime. The two regimes are separated by a steep transition associated with surface albedo feedback. The associated hysteresis is however small, indicating that the Arctic climate system does not have an irreversible tipping point behaviour related to the surface albedo feedback. The results are discussed in the context of the recent reduction of the Arctic sea ice cover. A new mechanism related to regional and temporal variations of the ice divergence within the Arctic Ocean is presented as an explanation for the observed regional variation of the ice thickness reduction. Our results further suggest that the recent reduction in areal ice extent and loss of multiyear ice is related to the albedo dependent transition between seasonal and perennial ice i.e. large areas of the Arctic Ocean that has previously been dominated by multiyear ice might have been pushed below a critical mean ice thickness, corresponding to the above mentioned transition, and into a state dominated by seasonal ice. 相似文献
14.
By use of GMS-4 infrared brightness temperature and visible albedo data from January to February in 1995,the method for extracting of sea ice parameters is developed.The digital remote sensing picture is obtained on Liaodong Bay.Based on the difference in physical properties between ice and water,a criterion distinguishing ice from water is set up.Ice thickness has been calculated according to the relationship between ice thickness and brightness as well as albedo.Ice concentration is retrieved due to the difference on albedo between ice and water.The results indicate that the accuracy of ice-water distinguishing is 84.8%,the errors of ice thickness and ice concentration are 3.8 cm and 22%,respectively. 相似文献
15.
By use of GMS-4 infrared brightness temperature and visible albedo data from January toFebruary in 1995,the method for extracting of sea ice parameters is developed.The digital remotesensing picture is obtained on Liaodong Bay.Based on the difference in physical properties betweenice and water,a criterion distinguishing ice from water is set up.Ice thickness has been calculatedaccording to the relationship between ice thickness and brightness as well as albedo.Iceconcentration is retrieved due to the difference on albedo between ice and water.The resultsindicate that the accuracy of ice-water distinguishing is 84.8%,the errors of ice thickness and iceconcentration are 3.8 cm and 22%,respectively. 相似文献
16.
A. P. Nagurnyi 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2009,34(9):613-617
The area integral of the sea ice thickness in the Arctic Basin is estimated from the measurements of sea ice surface fluctuations
at drift-ice stations. The 1970–1990 linear trend is indicative of an approximately 10-cm reduction in the average sea ice
thickness over the entire Arctic Basin, which makes 3% of the average ice thickness (about 3 m). Seasonal changes made 40
cm. The amplitude of variations of the average ice thickness in that period is 20 cm with a period of changes of approximately
6–8 years. The observations were interrupted during 1991–2003 and then resumed in 2004. During 1990–2005, the old ice thickness
over the entire Arctic Basin decreased, on average, by 110 cm. 相似文献
17.
A. N. Chetyrbotskii 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2010,35(3):211-217
The model is constructed based on the concepts of the character of thermal evolution of the sea ice cover thickness. The dynamics
of the ice thickness and that of the melt water forming in the ice cover are considered at the stage of melting. The space
limitation of the marine environment for the ice is taken into account both for the stage of the ice cover formation and for
the stage of its melting. The model is investigated analytically. The parametric identification of the model and the estimation
of its adequacy are performed based on sampling distributions of the ice cover thickness in the Sea of Japan. 相似文献
18.
Theoretical and experimental studies of ultra-high-frequency (UHF) and microwave radiometry to sense remotely the thickness and other characteristics of low-salinity (less than one per mille) sea ice are described. The experimental studies used a 600-MHz and a multichannel, multibeam, 4.7-GHz radiometer carried by a helicopter to measure the brightness temperature of different types of sea ice in the Gulf of Bothnia in 1975 and 1976.The developed theory and experiments show that the brightness temperature of low-salinity sea ice oscillates as a function of ice thickness at UHF frequencies. Due to higher attenuation, the oscillations quickly die away at 4.7 GHz and the brightness temperature reaches an almost constant value when the thickness exceeds a few decimetres. By using a three-channel UHF radiometer with suitably selected center frequencies, the oscillations can be reduced and the effective brightness temperature will grow more linearly with the ice thickness.Experiments show that ice ridges appear as thick ice at 600 MHz and as thinner ice at 4.7 GHz, thus allowing them to be detected by radio techniques. 相似文献
19.
Arctic sea ice mass budgets for the twentieth century and projected changes through the twenty-first century are assessed from 14 coupled global climate models. Large inter-model scatter in contemporary mass budgets is strongly related to variations in absorbed solar radiation, due in large part to differences in the surface albedo simulation. Over the twenty-first century, all models simulate a decrease in ice volume resulting from increased annual net melt (melt minus growth), partially compensated by reduced transport to lower latitudes. Despite this general agreement, the models vary considerably regarding the magnitude of ice volume loss and the relative roles of changing melt and growth in driving it. Projected changes in sea ice mass budgets depend in part on the initial (mid twentieth century) ice conditions; models with thicker initial ice generally exhibit larger volume losses. Pointing to the importance of evolving surface albedo and cloud properties, inter-model scatter in changing net ice melt is significantly related to changes in downwelling longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation. These factors, along with the simulated mean and spatial distribution of ice thickness, contribute to a large inter-model scatter in the projected onset of seasonally ice-free conditions. 相似文献
20.
WANG Xuezhong SUN Zhaobo HU Banghui MIN Jinzhong ZENG Gang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2004,18(3):347-362
An ocean model developed by the Institute of Marine Research and the University of Bergen in Norway (BOM) and a state-of-the-art sea ice model developed by NCAR (CSIM4) are coupled, Considering influences of 9 major rivers,forced by the NCEP reanalysis atmospheric fields and the Levitus surface salinity,the Arctic sea ice climatic variation from January 1949 to December.1999 was simulated through the coupled model.The comparison of simulated results and observations shows that:(1)the long-term ice concentration variation tendencies are in consistent with the observations in the divisional ocean regions;(2)simulated ice thickness horizontal distribution is reasonable.Simulated ice thickness has a decreasing tendency in the central Arctic,which agrees with the submarine observations.Simulated annually maximum ice thickness is highly related to observed fast-ice thickness off the Russian coast;and (3)sea ice area/volume fluxes through the Fram Strait are in accord with the satellite-derived data.Generally,the coupled model successfully simulated the Arctic Ocean sea ice climatic variation. 相似文献