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1.
大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）是指发生在北大西洋的海表温度（SST）冷暖异常多年代际（50～80年）振荡的现象。通常AMO被认为是受大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）及其对应的海洋动力过程（经向热量输运）的影响。近年来有观点认为,AMO是大气随机热力强迫的产物,大气主导了海气间的热量交换进而影响AMO。弄清AMO和北大西洋海表热通量的因果关系是辨析AMO动力和热力驱动机制的关键。本文利用基于信息流理论的因果分析方法,研究了1880年以来观测的AMO与北大西洋海表热通量间的因果关系。结果表明,在多年代际尺度上,从AMO到海表热通量的信息流要远大于二者相反方向的信息流,这说明AMO是北大西洋海表热通量异常的因,海洋主导了海气间的热量交换。大气随机热力强迫机制无法解释AMO与热通量两者因果分析的结果。对泛大西洋地区的陆地气温和AMO指数进行分析,进一步表明由于海洋主导了海气热量交换,AMO的海温异常加热/冷却控制了绝大多数地区气温的多年代际变化。利用海温驱动的大气环流模式的模拟结果验证了AMO的海温异常对周边陆地气温强迫作用。本文的结果为辨析AMO的动力和热力驱动机制提供了新线索,进一步表明AMO并非是大气随机热力强迫的产物,海洋环流可能是AMO的主要驱动因子。 相似文献
2.
1—3月北极涛动对北半球热带太平洋和大西洋对流活动的可能影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用1979—2008年日分辨率的向外长波辐射资料以及NCEP再分析资料,去除ENSO影响后,分析了1—3月北极涛动对热带太平洋和热带大西洋对流活动及降水的可能影响。结果表明北极涛动偏强(弱)时,热带太平洋和大西洋对流活动显著偏强(弱)。北半球热带大洋冬季平均向外长波辐射与北极涛动指数的相关系数存在两个显著负相关区:一个位于中太平洋区,大致包括13°—20°N、160°E—170°W;另外一个位于热带大西洋,显著区覆盖的范围大体包括5°—20°N、15°—70°W。这些区域的降水量也表现出显著的正相关。向外长波辐射、强对流面积指数、强对流强度指数、平均降水量等指标与北极涛动指数的相关均以冬季同期最高,随时间滞后相关迅速减弱。与此对应的对流层低层大气环流也有显著变化,850hPa风场的变化表现为热带太平洋有异常的气旋性环流,气旋中心区与显著强对流和降水异常区一致。而热带大西洋有显著的经向环流辐合和风切变,与异常对流和降水区吻合。海洋模式的模拟结果表明,与北极涛动有关联的海温分布,很大程度上与大气强迫有关,说明热带1—3月降水和对流活动与海温的关联较弱。北极涛动与热带太平洋、大西洋对流和降水活动之间主要是通过大气环流的变动产生联系的。 相似文献
3.
南极海冰首要模态呈现偶极子型异常,正负异常中心分别位于别林斯高晋海/阿蒙森海和威德尔海。过去研究表明冬春季节南极海冰涛动异常对后期南极涛动（Antarctic Oscillation,AAO）型大气环流有显著影响,而AAO可以通过经向遥相关等机制影响北半球大气环流和东亚气候。本文中我们利用观测分析发现南极海冰涛动从5～7月（May–July,MJJ）到8～10月（August–October, ASO）有很好的持续性,并进一步分析其对北半球夏季大气环流的可能影响及其物理过程。结果表明,MJJ南极海冰涛动首先通过冰气相互作用在南半球激发持续性的AAO型大气环流异常,使得南半球中纬度和极地及热带之间的气压梯度加大,在MJJ至JAS,纬向平均纬向风呈现显著的正负相间的从南极到北极的经向遥相关型分布。对流层中层位势高度场上,在澳大利亚北部到海洋性大陆区域,出现显著的负异常,在东亚沿岸从低纬到高纬呈现南北走向的“? + ?”太平洋—日本（Pacific–Japan,PJ）遥相关波列,其对应赤道中部太平洋及赤道印度洋存在显著的降水和海温负异常,西北太平洋至我国东部沿海地区存在显著降水正异常和温度负异常;低纬度北美洲到大西洋一带存在的负位势高度异常和北大西洋附近存在的正位势高度异常中心,构成一个类似于西大西洋型遥相关（Western Atlantic,WA）的结构,对应赤道南大西洋降水增加和南撒哈拉地区降水减少。从物理过程来看,南极海冰涛动首先通过局地效应影响Ferrel环流,进而通过经圈环流调整使得海洋性大陆区域和热带大西洋上方的Hadley环流上升支得到增强,海洋性大陆区域特别是菲律宾附近的热带对流活动偏强,激发类似于负位相的PJ波列,影响东亚北太平洋地区的大气环流,而热带大西洋对流增强和北传特征,则通过激发WA遥相关影响大西洋和欧洲地区的大气环流。以上两种通道将持续性MJJ至ASO南极海冰涛动强迫的大气环流信号从南半球中高纬度经热带地区传递到北半球中高纬地区,从而对热带和北半球夏季大气环流产生显著影响。 相似文献
4.
旋转经验正交函数分解回归方法在东北夏季气温季节预测和成因诊断中的应用 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用中国东北4省/区73个地面气象观测站1971—2011年6—8月月平均气温,以及NCEP/NCAR再分析1971—2011年月平均高度和NOAA月平均海表温度（SST）资料,基于主成分回归（PCR）预测方法的思想,用同年1—5月北半球大气环流和全球SST场建立了东北地区夏季气温的统计预测模型,该建模方法是主成分回归方法的变形,计算方法较为简易,对气温等级的季节预测有较好的预报效果;并用其计算过程做了前期气候成因诊断。考虑到旋转经验正交函数分解样本误差较小、空间模态结构清晰,但特征向量的时间系数在不同时段有所变化的特点,故使用旋转经验正交函数分解整个时段的东北夏季气温场,然后基于旋转经验正交函数分解结果,进行前期影响因子甄别,最后建立多元线性逐步回归预测模型,建模期为前30年,独立样本预报期为后11年。30 a逐年交叉回报检验和11 a独立样本预测效果都显示该模型具有较高的预报技巧,尤其对气温等级的预测具有参考价值。用预测模型的中间过程诊断了东北夏季各月某一类典型气温异常的前期成因：5月北极涛动和北大西洋涛动（AO/NAO）、北太平洋涛动（NPO）以及副热带纬向一致异常型（SZ）等大气大尺度低频波动对6月吉林和辽宁省气温异常有显著影响;3月北极涛动和北大西洋涛动、东太平洋涛动（EP）及欧亚遥相关型波列对7月内蒙古东北部气温异常有显著影响;5月在北半球中高纬度大尺度低频波列不显著的情况下,SZ型低频波列对8月内蒙古东北部部分地区和黑龙江中、西部等地气温异常有显著影响;前期海温呈厄尔尼诺（拉尼娜）型、同时北大西洋海温三极子为正（负）位相,一般与导致东北6月和7月偏冷（暖）的大气环流型相匹配;春末热带印度洋全区海表温度一致异常模态（IOBM）正（负）位相与导致东北8月偏暖（冷）的大气环流型相匹配。 相似文献
5.
在工业革命以来全球长期增暖趋势背景下,全球平均表面气温还同时表现出年代际变化特征,二者叠加在一起使得全球平均气温在某些年份增暖相对停滞(如1999～2008年)或者增暖相对较快(如1980～1998年).利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)发展的耦合气候模式FGOALS-s2历史气候和典型路径浓度(RCPs)模拟试验结果研究了可能造成全球增暖的年代际停滞及加速现象的原因,特别是海洋环流对全球变暖趋势的调制作用.该模式模拟的全球平均气温与观测类似,即在长期增暖趋势之上,还叠加了显著的年代际变化.对全球平均能量收支分析表明,模拟的气温年代际变化与大气顶净辐射通量无关,意味着年代际表面气温变化可能与能量在气候系统内部的重新分配有关.通过对全球增暖加速和停滞时期大气和海洋环流变化的合成分析及回归分析,发现全球表面气温与大部分海区海表温度(SST)均表现出几乎一致的变化特征.在增暖停滞时期,SST降低,更多热量进入海洋次表层和深层,使其温度增加;而在增暖加速时期,更多热量停留在表层,使得大部分海区SST显著增加,次表层海水和深海相对冷却.进一步分析表明,热带太平洋表层和次表层海温年代际变化主要是由于副热带—热带经圈环流(STC)的年代际变化所致,然后热带太平洋海温异常可以通过风应力和热通量强迫作用引起印度洋、大西洋海温的年代际变化.在此过程中,海洋环流变化起到了重要作用,例如印度尼西亚贯穿流(ITF)年代际异常对南印度洋次表层海温变化起到关键作用,而大西洋经圈翻转环流(AMOC)则能直接影响到北大西洋深层海温变化. 相似文献
6.
本文利用1951—1980年逐季的平均值资料(共120个季)讨论了北方涛动和与其相联系的北太平洋海温与北半球海平面气压场、500hPa位势高度场遥相关的基本结构,并与南方涛动和赤道东太平洋海温的结果进行了对比分析.发现北太平洋Namias海区和加利福尼亚海流区海温的变化与北方涛动具有很密切的联系;北方涛动和这两个海区的海温同北半球中高纬度大气环流特别是PNA型和NAO型环流异常存在明显的遥相关关系;南方涛动和赤道太平洋海温同WP型或NPO型环流异常关系比较密切,而与PNA型和NAO型的关系不如北方涛动和Namias海区及加利福尼亚海流区海温的显著. 相似文献
7.
利用大气环流模式模拟北大西洋海温异常强迫响应 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
北大西洋地区的海温异常能够在多大程度上对大气产生影响，一直是一个有争议的问题。作者利用伴随北大西洋涛动出现的海温异常对大气环流模式CAM2.0.1进行强迫，考察了模式在冬季（12月、1月和2月）对三核型海温异常的响应。通过与欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的再分析资料的对比，发现该模式可以通过海温强迫在一定程度上再现具有北大西洋涛动特征的温度场和环流场。在北大西洋及其沿岸地区，模式模拟出了三核型的准正压响应，与经典的北大西洋涛动型大气异常是一致的。模式结果与北大西洋地区大气内部主导模态的差别主要体现在两个方面:一是异常中心位置多偏向于大洋上空，在陆地上的异常响应强度很弱；二是高纬地区对海温异常的响应不显著，没有强迫出与实际的大气模态相对应的异常中心，表明该地区海洋的反馈作用较弱。 相似文献
8.
An enhanced influence of sea surface temperature in the tropical northern Atlantic on the following winter ENSO since the early 1980s 
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下载免费PDF全文 《大气和海洋科学快报》2017,(2)
已有研究指出春季热带北大西洋海温对随后冬季ENSO事件的发生存在显著的影响。该研究发现它们的联系在20世纪80年代初以后显著增强。20世纪80年代初以后,春季热带北大西洋海温为正异常时,副热带东北太平洋存在显著的异常气旋环流,同时异常沃克环流在热带中东太平洋引起显著的异常下沉运动。异常气旋环流西侧的东北风异常增强气候态的风速,导致负海温异常。负海温异常通过Gill型大气响应使得热带西北太平洋产生异常的反气旋环流。同时,热带中东太平洋的沃克环流异常下沉运动也对热带西北太平洋异常反气旋环流的形成起到一定作用。热带西北太平洋反气旋环流南侧的东风异常通过海洋动力过程对随后冬季ENSO产生影响。因此,春季热带北大西洋海温对冬季ENSO存在显著的影响。然而,20世纪80年代以前,春季热带北大西洋海温相关的热带东北太平洋异常气旋环流和热带地区的异常沃克环流不显著,从而不能在热带西北太平洋产生异常反气旋。所以,20世纪80年代以前,春季热带北大西洋海温对冬季ENSO的影响不显著。进一步的分析指出,春季热带北大西洋海温对ENSO影响的年代际变化可能与热带北大西洋降水气候态的年代际变化有关。 相似文献
9.
将8个主要平衡分潮加入到耦合模式中,对比研究潮汐对北大西洋模拟影响。由于潮汐的引入,模式模拟SST在北大西洋中纬度区域偏差显著减小,高纬度区域SST降温明显。SST模拟的改变使潮汐试验的海表净热通量模拟误差下降了约30%,但高纬度海冰显著增加。模式中引入潮汐对北大西洋上层环流,尤其是西边界流的路径模拟改进显著,这是SST及海表净热通量模拟改变的主要原因。同时,北大西洋上层和深层西边界流在潮汐的作用下,都表现出环流减弱的特点,这也使得大西洋经向翻转环流在26.5°N处上层2 km的输送减弱,与观测数据更为接近。较弱的大西洋经向翻转环流导致海洋热量在中低纬度聚集而无法输送到高纬度区域,这是造成潮汐试验模拟的海温在中低纬度偏高、高纬度偏低的原因,较弱的热输送也同时导致了潮汐试验中北半球海冰面积增加。 相似文献
10.
通过资料分析与数值模拟研究了西北太平洋低空环流特征及其与海面温度（SST）异常关系的季节性差异,得到如下结论：1）西北太平洋低空环流的空间尺度和位置在春季和夏季存在明显差异,从春季到夏季,异常环流范围缩小且中心位置向西北偏移;2）西北太平洋低空环流与西北太平洋局地海温的相互作用存在季节差异,春季西北太平洋冷海温与上空反气旋异常之间存在相互作用,而夏季则以大气影响海洋为主,异常的反气旋/气旋可以加热/冷却其下垫面的海温,大气超前3～4 d影响海洋;3）夏季异常反气旋环流（WNPAC）的维持主要来自非局地海温异常（北印度洋暖海温与中太平洋冷海温异常）的强迫,这两个海区对WNPAC的影响也存在季节性差异,北印度洋的影响主要体现在晚春至盛夏,而中太平洋则主要在晚夏发挥作用。 相似文献
11.
We investigate the dependence of surface fresh water fluxes in the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current (NAC) area on the
position of the stream axis which is not well represented in most ocean models. To correct this shortcoming, strong unrealistic
surface fresh water fluxes have to be applied that lead to an incorrect salt balance of the current system. The unrealistic
surface fluxes required by the oceanic component may force flux adjustments and may cause fictitious long-term variability
in coupled climate models. To identify the important points in the correct representation of the salt balance of the Gulf
Stream a regional model of the northwestern part of the subtropical gyre has been set up. Sensitivity studies are made where
the westward flow north of the Gulf Stream and its properties are varied. Increasing westward volume transport leads to a
southward migration of the Gulf Stream separation point along the American coast. The salinity of the inflow is essential
for realistic surface fresh water fluxes and the water mass distribution. The subpolar–subtropical connection is important
in two ways: The deep dense flow from the deep water mass formation areas sets up the cyclonic circulation cell north of the
Gulf Stream. The surface and mid depth flow of fresh water collected at high northern latitudes is mixed into the Gulf Stream
and compensates for the net evaporation at the surface.
Received: 19 September 2000 / Accepted: 5 February 2001 相似文献
12.
The Gulf Stream, one of the strongest currents in the world, transports approximately 31 Sv of water (Kelly and Gille, 1990, Baringer and Larsen, 2001, Leaman et al., 1995) and 1.3 × 1015 W (Larsen, 1992) of heat into the Atlantic Ocean, and warms the vast European continent. Thus any change of the Gulf Stream could lead to the climate change in the European continent, and even worldwide (Bryden et al., 2005). Past studies have revealed a diminished Gulf Stream and oceanic heat transport that was possibly associated with a southward migration of intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and may have contributed to Little Ice Age (AD ∼1200 to 1850) in the North Atlantic (Lund et al., 2006). However, the causations of the Gulf Stream weakening due to the southward migration of the ITCZ remain uncertain. Here we use satellite observation data and employ a model (oceanic general circulation model – OGCM) to demonstrate that the Brazilian promontory in the east coast of South America may have played a crucial role in allocating the equatorial currents, while the mean position of the equatorial currents migrates between northern and southern hemisphere in the Atlantic Ocean. Northward migrations of the equatorial currents in the Atlantic Ocean have little influence on the Gulf Stream. Nevertheless, southward migrations, especially abrupt large southward migrations of the equatorial currents, can lead to the increase of the Brazil Current and the significant decrease of the North Brazil Current, in turn the weakening of the Gulf Stream. The results from the model simulations suggest the mean position of the equatorial currents in the Atlantic Ocean shifted at least 180–260 km southwards of its present-day position during the Little Ice Age based on the calculations of simple linear equations and the OGCM simulations. 相似文献
13.
Interannual-to-interdecadal ocean-atmosphere interaction in midlatitudes is studied using an idealized coupled model consisting of eddy resolving two-layer quasi-geostrophic oceanic and atmospheric components with a simple diagnostic oceanic mixed layer. The model solutions exhibit structure and variability that resemble qualitatively some aspects of the observed climate variability over the North Atlantic. The atmospheric climatology is characterized by a zonally modulated jet. The single-basin ocean climatology consists of a midlatitude double jet that represents the Gulf Stream and Labrador currents, which are parts of the subtropical and subpolar gyres, respectively. The leading mode of the atmospheric low-frequency variability consists predominantly of meridional displacements of the zonal jet, with a local maximum over the ocean. The first basin-scale mode of sea-surface temperature has a red power spectrum, is largely of one polarity and bears qualitative similarities with the observed interdecadal mode identified by Kushnir. A warm sea-surface temperature anomaly is accompanied by anomalously low atmospheric pressure, an intensified model Gulf Stream and a weakened Labrador current. This mode is found not to be affected significantly by oceanic coupling. In the western part of the basin, this sea-surface temperature pattern is shown to be forced by the slowest components of the surface-wind anomaly through a delayed modulation of the baroclinic time-dependent boundary currents which advect mean SST, with synchronous variations in the two oceanic jets. The response in the east is found to be dominated by local atmospheric forcing. Basin-scale intrinsic oceanic variability consists of a damped oceanic oscillatory mode in the baroclinic flow field that is excited by the atmospheric noise. Its period is around 5.5 years, but it has a negligible influence on the evolution of sea-surface temperature. Important for this mode's excitation is the meridional position of the atmospheric center of action relative to the ocean gyres. 相似文献
14.
We analyze the sensitivity of the oceanic thermohaline circulation (THC) regarding perturbations in fresh water flux for a range of coupled oceanic general circulation — atmospheric energy balance models. The energy balance model (EBM) predicts surface air temperature and fresh water flux and contains the feedbacks due to meridional transports of sensible and latent heat. In the coupled system we examine a negative perturbation in run-off into the southern ocean and analyze the role of changed atmospheric heat transports and fresh water flux. With mixed boundary conditions (fixed air temperature and fixed surface fresh water fluxes) the response is characterized by a completely different oceanic heat transport than in the reference case. On the other hand, the surface heat flux remains roughly constant when the air temperature can adjust in a model where no anomalous atmospheric transports are allowed. This gives an artificially stable system with nearly unchanged oceanic heat transport. However, if meridional heat transports in the atmosphere are included, the sensitivity of the system lies between the two extreme cases. We find that changes in fresh water flux are unimportant for the THC in the coupled system. 相似文献
15.
The inter-basin teleconnection between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific ocean–atmosphere interaction is studied using
a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. In the model, an idealized oceanic temperature anomaly is initiated
over the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream extension region to track the coupled evolution of ocean and atmosphere interaction,
respectively. The experiments explicitly demonstrate that both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic ocean–atmosphere interactions
are intimately coupled through an inter-basin atmospheric teleconnection. This fast inter-basin communication can transmit
oceanic variability between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific through local ocean-to-atmosphere feedbacks. The leading
mode of the extratropical atmospheric internal variability plays a dominant role in shaping the hemispheric-scale response
forced by oceanic variability over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Modeling results also suggest that a century (two centuries)
long observations are necessary for the detection of Pacific response to Atlantic forcings (Atlantic response to Pacific forcing). 相似文献
16.
Heat balance and eddies in the Peru-Chile current system 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
François Colas James C. McWilliams Xavier Capet Jaison Kurian 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(1-2):509-529
The Peru-Chile current System (PCS) is a region of persistent biases in global climate models. It has strong coastal upwelling, alongshore boundary currents, and mesoscale eddies. These oceanic phenomena provide essential heat transport to maintain a cool oceanic surface underneath the prevalent atmospheric stratus cloud deck, through a combination of mean circulation and eddy flux. We demonstrate these behaviors in a regional, quasi-equilibrium oceanic model that adequately resolves the mesoscale eddies with climatological forcing. The key result is that the atmospheric heating is large (>50 W m?2) over a substantial strip >500 km wide off the coast of Peru, and the balancing lateral oceanic flux is much larger than provided by the offshore Ekman flux alone. The atmospheric heating is weaker and the coastally influenced strip is narrower off Chile, but again the Ekman flux is not sufficient for heat balance. The eddy contribution to the oceanic flux is substantial. Analysis of eddy properties shows strong surface temperature fronts and associated large vorticity, especially off Peru. Cyclonic eddies moderately dominate the surface layer, and anticyclonic eddies, originating from the nearshore poleward Peru-Chile Undercurrent (PCUC), dominate the subsurface, especially off Chile. The sensitivity of the PCS heat balance to equatorial intra-seasonal oscillations is found to be small. We demonstrate that forcing the regional model with a representative, coarse-resolution global reanalysis wind product has dramatic and deleterious consequences for the oceanic circulation and climate heat balance, the eddy heat flux in particular. 相似文献
17.
Turbulence structure of the marine boundary layer (MBL) over the Gulf Stream and the adjacent coastal waters during the development of a storm is discussed. Prestorm conditions prevailed on 9 February and a meso-low formed on 10 February which intensified into an offshore cyclone on 11 February. Observations from aircraft, buoys and ships were made as part of the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE, 86) during these three days. Analysis of the high frequency (20 Hz) turbulence data collected from low-level flights by the NCAR King Air and Electra indicates the effect of the storm development on the turbulence structure of the MBL.Observational data over the stable region near the coast on 10 February revealed the presence of internal gravity waves. Spectral analysis indicates that the size and energy of the eddies increased over the Gulf Stream and also increased as the storm developed. Results obtained using conditional sampling techniques suggest that intense narrower warm updrafts dominate the total heat flux. The broader, less intense cool downdrafts seem to occupy a large portion of the Gulf Stream. 相似文献
18.
The gravitational stability of the air overlying the sea surface is determined by the air-sea temperature difference. Air-sea exchange coeeficients have been shown to increase when the air is unstable and decrease when the air is stable. This stability dependence of the wind stress has been approximated by a linear law relating wind stress to air-sea temperature difference and it has been shown that this thermal feedback generates a warm, Gulf-Stream-like jet emerging from the western boundary current eastward into the interior. Here, the thermal correction is applied tot he wind stress and to the air-sea heat exchange coefficient to study the effects on the circulation and on the poleward heat flux. The basic dynamical model is linear, wind-driven and has an anticyclonic gyre in the southern half and an equally intense cyclonic half in the northern half basin. The thermodynamic model uses the vertically averaged, convective-diffusive heat equation. Thermal feedback leads to a compression of the anticyclonic gyre to a narrower lattitude band near the western boundary and to a warm Gulf Stream extending eastward into the interior. The redistribution of the dynamical properties in the anticyclonic gyre resembles that due to inertial processes. In the cyclonic gyre the changes are quite unlike those due to inertial effects. The main quantitative change is the poleward heat flux across the gyre boundary, which can be several times the value obtained without feedback and should be important for climate studies. 相似文献
19.
Mechanisms of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Variability in a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM简 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The mechanisms involved in the variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation （AMOC） are studied using a 2000-yr control simulation of the coupled Fast Ocean-Atmosphere Model （FOAM）.This study identifies a coupled mode between SST and surface heat flux in the North Atlantic at the decadal timescale,as well as a forcing mode of surface heat flux at the interannual timescale.The coupled mode is regulated by AMOC through meridional heat transport.The increase in surface heating in the North Atlantic weakens the AMOC approximately 10 yr later,and the weakened AMOC in turn decreases SST and sea surface salinity.The decreased SST results in an increase in surface heating in the North Atlantic,thus forming a positive feedback loop.Meanwhile,the weakened AMOC weakens northward heat transport and therefore lowers subsurface temperature approximately 19 yr later,which prevents the AMOC from weakening.In the forcing mode,the surface heat flux leads AMOC by approximately 4 yr. 相似文献
20.
We investigate the impact of 1/8°, 1/16°, 1/32°, and 1/64° ocean model resolution on model–data comparisons for the Gulf Stream system mainly between the Florida Straits and the Grand Banks. This includes mean flow and variability, the Gulf Stream pathway, the associated nonlinear recirculation gyres, the large-scale C-shape of the subtropical gyre and the abyssal circulation. A nonlinear isopycnal, free surface model covering the Atlantic from 9°N to 47°N or 51°N, including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and a similar 1/16° global model are used. The models are forced by winds and by a global thermohaline component via ports in the model boundaries. When calculated using realistic wind forcing and Atlantic model boundaries, linear simulations with Munk western boundary layers and a Sverdrup interior show two unrealistic mean Gulf Stream pathways between Cape Hatteras and the Grand Banks, one proceeding due east from Cape Hatteras and a second one continuing northward along the western boundary until forced eastward by the regional northern boundary. The northern pathway is augmented when a linear version of the upper ocean global thermohaline contribution to the Gulf Stream is added as a Munk western boundary layer. A major change is required to obtain a realistic pathway in nonlinear models. Resolution of 1/8° is eddy-resolving but mainly gives a wiggly version of the linear model Gulf Stream pathway and weak abyssal flows except for the deep western boundary current (DWBC) forced by ports in the model boundaries. All of the higher resolution simulations show major improvement over the linear and 1/8° nonlinear simulations. Additional major improvement is seen with the increase from 1/16° to 1/32° resolution and modest improvement with a further increase to 1/64°. The improvements include (1) realistic separation of the Gulf Stream from the coast at Cape Hatteras and a realistic Gulf Stream pathway between Cape Hatteras and the Grand Banks based on comparisons with Gulf Stream pathways from satellite IR and from GEOSAT and TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry (but 1/32° resolution was required for robust results), (2) realistic eastern and western nonlinear recirculation gyres (which contribute to the large-scale C-shape of the subtropical gyre) based on comparisons with mean surface dynamic height from the generalized digital environmental model (GDEM) oceanic climatology and from the pattern and amplitude of sea surface height (SSH) variability surrounding the eastern gyre as seen in TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry, (3) realistic upper ocean and DWBC transports based on several types of measurements, (4) patterns and amplitude of SSH variability which are generally realistic compared to TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry, but which vary from simulation to simulation for specific features and which are most realistic overall in the 1/64° simulation, (5) a basin wide explosion in the number and strength of mesoscale eddies (with warm core rings (WCRs) north of the Gulf Stream, the regional eddy features best observed by satellite IR), (6) realistic statistics for WCRs north of the Gulf Stream based on comparison to IR analyses (low at 1/16° resolution and most realistic at 1/64° resolution for mean population and rings generated/year; realistic ring diameters at all resolutions), and (7) realistic patterns and amplitude of abyssal eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in comparison to historical measurements from current meters. 相似文献