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1.
Potential of Desertification Control to Sequester Carbon and Mitigate the Greenhouse Effect 总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16
R. Lal 《Climatic change》2001,51(1):35-72
There is a strong link between desertification of the drylands and emission of CO2 from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. Thus, there is a strong need to revisit the desertification process so that its reversal can lead to C sequestration and mitigation of the accelerated greenhouse effect. Drylands of the world occupy 6.31 billion ha (Bha) or 47% ofthe earth's land area distributed among four climates: hyper-arid (1.0 Bha), arid (1.62 Bha), semi-arid (2.37 Bha) and dry sub-humid (1.32 Bha). Principal soils of drylands are Aridisols (1.66 Bha), Entisols (1.92 Bha), Alfisols (0.38 Bha), Vertisols (0.21 Bha) and others (1.27 Bha). Drylands occur in all continents covering 2.01 Bha in Africa, 2.00 Bha in Asia, 0.68Bha in Australia, 1.32 Bha in the Americas and 0.30 Bha in Europe. Desertification, degradation of soil and vegetation in drylands resulting from climatic and anthropogenic factors, affects about 1.137 Bha of soils and an additional 2.576 Bha of rangeland vegetation. The rate of desertification is estimated at 5.8 million hectares (Mha) per year. Desertification is a biophysical process (soil, climate and vegetation) driven by socio-economic and political factors. The principal biophysical processes involved, accelerated soil erosion by water and wind and salinization, reduce soil quality and effective rooting depth, decrease vegetal cover, reduce biomass productivity, and accentuate vagaries of climateespecially low and variable rainfall. Major consequences of desertification include reduction in the total soil C pool and transfer of C from soil to the atmosphere. Total historic loss of C due to desertification may be 19 to 29 Pg. The rate of C emission from drylands due to accelerated soil erosion is estimated at 0.227 to 0.292 Pg C y–1. Therefore, desertification control and restoration of degraded soils and ecosystems would improve soil quality, increase the pool of C in soil and biomass, and induce formation of secondary carbonates leading to a reduction of C emissions to the atmosphere. Desertification control and soil restoration are affected by establishing vegetative cover with appropriate species, improving water use efficiency, using supplemental irrigation including water harvesting, developing a strategy of integrated nutrient management for soil fertility enhancement, and adopting improved farming systems. Adoption of these improved practices also have hidden carbon costs, especially those due to production and application of herbicides and nitrogen fertilizers, pumping irrigation water etc. Restoration of eroded and salt-affected soils is important to C sequestration. Total potential of C sequestration in drylands through adoption of these measures is 0.9 to 1.9Pg C y–1 for a 25- to 50-year period beyond which the rate of sequestration is often too low to be important. In addition to enhancing productivity and food security, C sequestration in soils and ecosystem has numerous ancillary benefits. Therefore, identification and implementation of policies is important to facilitate adoption of recommended practices and for commodification of carbon. 相似文献
2.
半干旱区不同类型土地利用的蒸散量及水分收支差异分析——以通榆为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用吉林通榆半干旱区农田站和退化草地站2008年的外场试验观测资料,对比分析了不同土地利用方式对蒸散和地表水分收支的影响。结果表明：从全年来看,尽管两个站点相距仅5 km,但农田站的全年总蒸散量比代表自然土地覆盖状况的退化草地站高28.2 mm;且生长季两种下垫面的蒸散量较为接近,差异主要发生在非生长季。同时,农田站的年水分收支总量为51.1 mm,比退化草地站低35.6％。具体来说,生长季,两个站点的水分收支均有盈余;但在非生长季,退化草地站的水分收支仍有盈余,而农田站则处于水分亏损状态。这说明在半干旱区,代表人为土地利用状况的农田站面临着更大的水分供给压力,人类活动导致的土地利用会加剧该地区的干旱化趋势。
进一步的分析表明,水分盈余并不代表地表的水分状况良好。从 Priestley-Taylor 系数来看,两个站点的Priestley-Taylor系数均远小于1.0,说明在半干旱区,由于表层土壤水分条件的限制,实际蒸散量远未达到平衡蒸散量,土壤面临着水分供给的压力。其可能的原因是,对半干旱区而言,尽管水分收支有盈余,但是由于土壤沙化严重,土壤孔隙度大,大气降水很容易下渗,并以地下水的形式存储起来,使得表层土壤水分供应反而不足。 相似文献
进一步的分析表明,水分盈余并不代表地表的水分状况良好。从 Priestley-Taylor 系数来看,两个站点的Priestley-Taylor系数均远小于1.0,说明在半干旱区,由于表层土壤水分条件的限制,实际蒸散量远未达到平衡蒸散量,土壤面临着水分供给的压力。其可能的原因是,对半干旱区而言,尽管水分收支有盈余,但是由于土壤沙化严重,土壤孔隙度大,大气降水很容易下渗,并以地下水的形式存储起来,使得表层土壤水分供应反而不足。 相似文献
3.
基于2001年和2010年中分辨率成像光谱仪MODIS（MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer）土地覆盖数据,利用公共陆面模式（Community Land Model, CLM）模拟真实的土地利用/覆盖变化（Land Use/Cover Change, LUCC）对地表能量平衡和水分循环过程的影响。研究表明:1）在2001～2010年,中国LUCC最明显的区域位于干旱半干旱区过渡带、半干旱半湿润区过渡带和南方地区;中国区域荒漠减少0.92%,草地减少0.01%,农田增加0.77%,森林增加2.86%,植被覆盖度整体增加。2）在2001年和2010年两种土地利用/覆盖背景下,LUCC使大部分地区感热通量增加,植被蒸腾、蒸发潜热通量增加,土壤表面蒸发潜热通量减小。3）LUCC使大部分地区地表径流减小;中国西北东部、华北和东北地区土壤湿度减小,其他地区土壤湿度增加,仅干旱半干旱过渡带上的土壤湿度发生了显著变化。4）当典型过渡带区域由荒漠变为草地后,感热通量增加1.11 W m?2,潜热通量增加0.14 W m?2;冠层蒸腾和蒸发分别增加0.039 mm d?1、0.009 mm d?1。土壤湿度平均减小0.01 m3 m?3,且随深度增加变干更明显,这是由于根系吸收了较多深层土壤水分,以满足植被显著增加的蒸腾而产生的结果。当草地变为灌木时,其能量通量和水分循环的变化与上述结果类似。 相似文献
4.
陆面模式CLSM的设计及性能检验II.模式检验 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
利用BOREAS,HEIFE,ARME,GAME-TIPEX等大量的陆面外场观测资料,针对不同类型的陆面过程,对所发展的陆面模式CLSM的性能进行检验.模拟结果与观测资料的对比分析表明:一方面,CLSM能够对积雪变化、干旱/半干旱地区的水热交换等特殊的陆面过程进行合理的描述;另一方面,CLSM对热带雨林地区的植被-大气相互作用、高原地气交换过程同样具有很强的模拟能力.CLSM解决了陆面模式对上述特殊下垫面描述能力有限的实际问题,保证了对特殊下垫面进行合理描述的同时,又保证了对其他不同陆面状况的模拟能力.CLSM改善了陆面模式对全球范围内不同下垫面条件下的陆面过程及地-气交换过程的模拟能力. 相似文献
5.
D. W. Sanders 《Climatic change》1986,9(1-2):33-42
About one third of the Earth's land surface lies in the arid and semi-arid regions. This area is important as in addition to supporting 600 million people, it produces much of the world's grain and a substantial amount of animal produce.However, much of this area is now either suffering, or is threatened by the processes of desertification.In this paper, seven different desertification processes—degradation of vegetative cover, wind erosion, water erosion, salinization, soil crusting and compaction, reduction in organic matter, and accumulation of toxic substances— are identified and their effects described.It is pointed out that these processes are usually closely interrelated, the occurrence of one frequently leading to the occurrence of one or more of the others. But whatever the process, the end result is the same—degraded land with a reduced productive capacity.The paper concludes by pointing out that desertification occurs due to man's influence on the environment and we must therefore look beyond the purely physical processes if we are to solve the problems of desertification. 相似文献
6.
H. Hübener M. Schmidt M. Sogalla M. Kerschgens 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2005,80(2-4):153-167
Summary In this work, simulations with the mesoscale meteorological model FOOT3DK for a semi-arid research site in southern morocco are presented. The main aim of this study is to introduce two different ways to improve the soil moisture distribution towards a more realistic pattern. One of them resembles the availability of groundwater resources below the lower boundary of the soil part of the model, the other one resembles irrigation practices in the region. Additionally, we introduce a newly derived land use/land cover data set obtained from analysis of LANDSAT data and compare the simulation results to those obtained with the USGS GLCC data. To evaluate the results with the refinements in soil moisture and land use/land cover, we focus on evapotranspiration, as the quantity which is most tentative to the changes in soil moisture and is an important part of the local hydrological cycle. To evaluate the importance of sub-grid scale surface heterogeneity in soil moisture and land use/land cover, we present simulations with enhanced surface resolution. Simulation results are compared to point measurements at different sites in the research area for validation.The results show, that a deep groundwater table and irrigation of parts of the research area can be represented by the methods we used. Simulated transpiration is overestimated compared to measured values, but this is due to the maximum approach used in this work. Finer tuning of the artificial enhancement of soil moisture with the two methods presented here are expected to lead to realistic distributions of evapotranspiration and related quantities, therewith drastically enhancing simulation accuracy for this site. As uncertainties of soil moisture distribution and restricted representation of soil moisture dynamics in meteorological models is a common problem especially for arid and semi-arid sites, we expect our results to be useful for meteorological simulations in other arid or semi-arid areas as well. 相似文献
7.
Ming Chang Shaofen Fan Qi Fan Weihua Chen Yiqiang Zhang Yu Wang Xuemei Wang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2014,50(1):645-655
The location and occurrence time of convective rainfalls have attracted great public concern as they can lead to terrible disasters. However, the simulation results of convective rainfalls in the Pearl River Delta region often show significant discrepancies from the observations. One of the major causes lies in the inaccurate geographic distribution of land surface properties used in the model simulation of the heavy precipitation. In this study, we replaced the default soil and vegetation datasets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with two refined datasets, i.e. the GlobCover 2009 (GLC2009) land cover map and the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) soil texture, to investigate the impact of vegetation and soil on the rainfall patterns. The result showed that the simulation patterns of convective rainfalls obtained from the coupled refined datasets are more consistent with the observations than those obtained from the default ones. By using the coupled refined land surface datasets, the overlap ratio of high precipitation districts reached 36.3% with a variance of 28.5 km from the observed maximum rainfall position, while those of the default United States Geological Survey (USGS) dataset and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dataset are 17.0%/32.8 km and 24.9%/49.0 km, respectively. The simulated total rainfall amount and occurrence time using the coupled refined datasets are the closest to the observed peak values. In addition, the HWSD soil data has improved the accuracy of the simulated precipitation amount, and the GLC2009 land cover data also did better in catching the early peak time. 相似文献
8.
9.
气候干湿状况是表征区域气候特征的重要指标,是在全球气候变暖背景下,水循环与陆面蒸散发作用的综合结果。本文从湿润度指数入手,结合降水与潜在蒸散的时空变化,分析了我国干旱半干旱区气候特点与干湿变化特征及对土壤湿度的影响。分析发现：近50年来,我国干旱与半干旱区均呈变湿趋势。干旱区与半干旱区潜在蒸散与降水月差值在年内出现时间上存在不一致,且干旱区明显大于半干旱区;3～9月为干旱气候区潜在蒸散与降水差值大值期,3～6月半干旱区潜在蒸散明显大于降水,7月起差值明显减小。作用分析表明,在干旱区,降水对湿润度指数的影响更大,而对于半干旱区,降水与潜在蒸散作用相当。长期以来,我国整个干旱与半干旱区大部分土壤湿度在逐渐变干,尤其是农业耕作层的浅层土壤,几乎全区域一致呈现变干趋势,说明我国干旱半干旱区农牧业生产存在较大的潜在干旱风险。 相似文献
10.
黄土高原陆面水分的凝结现象及收支特征试验研究 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
中国黄土高原是全球独特的地理区域,其陆面水分过程比较特殊。利用黄土高原陆面过程试验研究(LOPEX)的陇中黄土高原定西陆面过程综合观测站的资料,分析了陆面水分凝结现象及其出现频率与局地微气象条件的关系,研究了露水(霜)量及其出现频率的季节分布特征以及受降水和天气阴、晴的影响规律。同时,对比分析了降水、露水、雾水和土壤吸附水对陆面水分的贡献率,讨论了涡动相关法、蒸渗计和蒸发皿观测的陆面蒸发量的差别及其与陆面水分来源的年平衡关系,给出了半干旱区陆面水分平衡的日循环特征。发现露水对风速、大气湿度、近地层温度梯度的依赖很强,一般在风速为1.5 m/s、相对湿度大于80%和逆温强度为0.25℃的情况下露水(霜)量最大;刚降水后的晴天露水量比较大;实际蒸散量与蒸发力的差距十分明显,陆面水分平衡特征表现为一个"呼吸"过程。 相似文献
11.
Land cover is a crucial, spatially and temporally varying component of global carbon and climate systems. Therefore accurate estimation and monitoring of land cover changes is important in global change research. Although, land cover has dramatically changed over the last few centuries, until now there has been no consistent way of quantifying the changes globally.In this study we used long-term climate, soils data along with coarse resolution satellite observations to quantify the magnitude and spatial extent of global land cover changes due to anthropogenic processes. Differences between potential leaf area index, derived from climate-soil-leaf area equilibrium and actual leaf area index obtained from satellite data were used to estimate changes in land cover.Forest clearing for agriculture and irrigated farming in arid and semi-arid lands are found to be two major sources of climatically important land cover changes. Satellite derived Spectral Vegetation indices (SV I) and surface temperatures (T s) show strong impact of land cover changes on climatic processes. Irrigated agriculture in dry areas increased energy absorption and evapotranspiration (ET) compared to natural vegetation. On the other hand, forest clearing for crops decreased energy absorption andET.
A land cover classification and monitoring system is proposed using satellite derivedSV I andT s that simultaneously characterize energy absorption and exchange processes. This completely remote sensing based approach is useful for monitoring land cover changes as well as their impacts on climate. Monitoring the spatio-temporal dynamics of land cover is possible with current operational satellites, and could be substantially improved with the Earth Observing System (EOS) era satellite sensors. 相似文献
12.
陆面过程模型中垂直非均匀土壤的水分传输及相变的模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
土壤湿度在陆气相互作用中的重要性体现在它既能影响陆地和大气之间水循环的速率, 又能改变地表的能量分配。本文针对陆面过程模型中描述土壤湿度变化的方程进行了理论分析, 指出在非均匀土壤和冻土中采用土壤水势梯度描述垂直非均匀土壤水分流动的合理性。基于描述土壤内部水热传输的统一土壤模型, 并利用推广的表征土壤水分特征的Clapp-Hornberger关系式, 研究了非冻结和冻结的土壤湿度对于垂直非均匀土壤的敏感性。结果表明, 由土壤质地决定的土壤水势和导水率对土壤湿度的模拟有重要的影响。具体地, 在决定土壤性质的Clapp-Hornberger关系式中, 与土壤质地有关的饱和水势、饱和导水率以及土壤孔隙大小分布指数B, 对土壤湿度的模拟起到了关键作用。参数B的重要性尤为突出, 它的增加会引起导水率的大大下降, 从而对水分在土壤中的垂直分布产生重要影响。饱和水势的绝对值和参数B的增加会使得土壤水势绝对值增加明显, 使土壤的结冰(融化)过程延迟, 土壤温度因为没有结冰(融化)释放(吸收)的潜热加热(冷却)而持续下降(上升), 因此在冻融时期土壤温度会比观测值振幅偏大。上述结果揭示了考虑土壤垂直非均匀性并采用有效的土壤特性参数对于陆面过程模型的重要性。 相似文献
13.
To study the land surface and atmospheric meteorological characteristics of non-uniform underlying surfaces in the semi-arid area of Northeast China, we use a “High-Resolution Assimilation Dataset of the water-energy cycle in China (HRADC)”. The grid points of three different underlying surfaces were selected, and their meteorological elements were averaged for each type (i.e., mixed forest, grassland, and cropland). For 2009, we compared and analyzed the different components of leaf area index (LAI), soil temperature and moisture, surface albedo, precipitation, and surface energy for various underlying surfaces in Northeast China. The results indicated that the LAI of mixed forest and cropland during the summer is greater than 5 m2 m?2 and below 2.5 m2 m?2 for grassland; in the winter and spring seasons, the Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) is below 30%. The soil temperature and moisture both vary greatly. Throughout the year, the mixed forest is dominated by latent heat evaporation; in grasslands and croplands, the sensible heat flux and the latent heat flux are approximately equal, and the GVF contributed more to latent heat flux than sensible heat flux in the summer. This study compares meteorological characteristics between three different underlying surfaces of the semi-arid area of Northeast China and makes up for the insufficiency of purely using observations for the study. This research is important for understanding the water-energy cycle and transport in the semi-arid area. 相似文献
14.
植被覆盖异常变化影响陆面状况的数值模拟 总被引：15，自引：2，他引：15
利用NCAR最新的公用陆面模式CLM3．0，通过数值模拟初步研究了植被叶面积指数（LAI，leafareaindex）异常变化对陆面状况的可能影响，结果表明，植被LAI的异常变化能够引起地表能量平衡、地表水循环等陆面状况的异常。（1）植被LAI的异常变化主要影响太阳辐射在植被与地表之间的分配，以及地表的感热、潜热通量。植被LAI增大，能够引起植被吸收的太阳辐射增加，而到达土壤表面的太阳辐射减小，并导致植被的蒸发、蒸腾潜热通量增加，造成地表的蒸发潜热和感热通量不同程度的减小。（2）植被LAI增大时，植被对降水的拦截和植被叶面的蒸发增大，植被的蒸腾作用也明显增强；植被LAI增加会使得热带地区各个季节的土壤表面蒸发、地表径流减小，而土壤湿度有所增加；LAI增加造成中高纬度地区土壤蒸发的减少主要出现在夏季；LAI增加还能够引起中高纬地区冬、春积雪深度不同程度的增加，造成春末、夏初地表径流的增加。（3）植被LAI增加能够使得叶面和土壤温度有所下降，但植被LAI的变化对叶面、土壤温度的影响相对较小。 相似文献
15.
GRAPES NOAH-LSM陆面模式水文过程的改进及试验研究 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
土壤含水量的计算影响着陆面过程的能量平衡和水量平衡,是陆面模式的核心计算要素之一。目前,GRAPES_Meso模式采用的NOAH-LSM(Noah-Land Surface Model)陆面模式既不能有效地表达径流产源面积的变动情况,也不能完整描述水文循环过程。本次试验针对以上问题对其进行了改进:(1)加入蓄水容量曲线,考虑网格内产流面积的变化及土壤含水量的不均匀性;(2)加入汇流模式,以考虑水平二维水分再分配,提高模式对径流和流量模拟能力。选取2008年8月至9月降水进行模拟试验,研究陆面水循环过程对近地面气象要素的影响。结果表明:改进后的模式模拟土壤湿度、2 m温度等近地面气象要素更接近观测值,并最终对降水量以及降水落区也产生了一定的影响。 相似文献
16.
The role of terrestrial snow cover in the climate system 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Steve Vavrus 《Climate Dynamics》2007,29(1):73-88
Snow cover is known to exert a strong influence on climate, but quantifying its impact is difficult. This study investigates
the global impact of terrestrial snow cover through a pair of GCM simulations run with prognostic snow cover and with all
snow cover on land eliminated (NOSNOWCOVER). In this experiment all snowfall over land was converted into its liquid–water
equivalent upon reaching the surface. Compared with the control run, NOSNOWCOVER produces mean-annual surface air temperatures
up to 5 K higher over northern North America and Eurasia and 8–10 K greater during winter. The globally averaged warming of
0.8 K is one-third as large as the model’s response to 2 × CO2 forcing. The pronounced surface heating propagates throughout the troposphere, causing changes in surface and upper-air circulation
patterns. Despite the large atmospheric warming, the absence of an insulating snow pack causes soil temperatures in NOSNOWCOVER
to fall throughout northern Asia and Canada, including extreme wintertime cooling of over 20 K in Siberia and a 70% increase
in permafrost area. The absence of snow melt water also affects extratropical surface hydrology, causing significantly drier
upper-layer soils and dramatic changes in the annual cycle of runoff. Removing snow cover also drastically affects extreme
weather. Extreme cold-air outbreaks (CAOs)—defined relative to the control climatology—essentially disappear in NOSNOWCOVER.
The loss of CAOs appears to stem from both the local effects of eliminating snow cover in mid-latitudes and a remote effect
over source regions in the Arctic, where −40°C air masses are no longer able to form. 相似文献
17.
利用TM遥感影像解译土地利用状况、植被覆盖度,研究退耕还林前后的土地利用、植被覆盖度的变化,揭示陕西省吴起县退耕还林生态建设工程所取得的实效;利用吴起与周边6个气象站37年的气温和地温资料,分析吴起土地覆盖变化后对温度的影响。结果表明,随着退耕还林工程的实施,吴起县域版图在遥感影像逐渐显现、越来越清晰,植被覆盖增加极为显著,高覆盖植被面积在逐年增加,低覆盖植被面积在逐年减少,植被恢复情况明显好于周围区域。与1 997年相比,到2007年吴起县有75.15%耕地不再耕种,退出的耕地主要变为草地、林地和果园;林草覆盖率增加显著,由1997年的37.06%提高到2007年的80.60%。植被覆盖变化后,对地温和气温均产生了影响,变暖趋势得到下降,对夏季的影响大于冬季,夜间的影响大于白天。 相似文献
18.
大尺度降雨异常对地面过程的影响——一类气候反馈机制的初步研究 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
本文以华北地区春季两个多雨年和两个少雨年为例,研究半干旱地区大范围持续性降雨对地面物理过程的影响。 根据地面边界层热通量和辐射通量的参数化公式以及地面水份倾向方程,计算分析了春季降雨异常增多后地面热状况、热量平衡各分量和水文状况的变化,发现降雨异常增多后,地面土壤温度和地面气温明显降低,土壤湿度和地面蒸发潜热明显增大,地面反照率也有所降低。值得指出的是,地面物理状况的变化相对于降雨异常过程有明显的时间上的后延现象,在空间场上有较好的配合关系。 相似文献
19.
2008年7—9月中国北方不同下垫面晴空陆面过程特征差异 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
采用2008年7—9月观测的中国干旱/半干旱区实验观测协同与集成研究资料,选取了9个下垫面(包括裸地、草地、森林和农田),分析了中国北方不同下垫面以及不同地区同类下垫面的晴空陆面辐射平衡和热量平衡日变化特征差异。结果表明,不同下垫面以及不同地区同类下垫面的地表辐射和能量过程特征差异明显,而这种差异主要源于下垫面的光学特性、水热特性以及局地陆-气系统中可利用水分的不同。在辐射平衡的比较方面,荒漠沙地发射的长波辐射最大,高寒森林的长波辐射最低,农田下垫面发射的长波辐射总体低于草地;荒漠沙地、草地、农田和高寒森林的反射率依次减弱;荒漠沙地、草地、农田、森林下垫面的净辐射依次增大。在能量平衡方面,荒漠区沙地可利用能量大部分(约80%)用于加热大气,约20%消耗于蒸发和加热土壤;草地下垫面可利用能量中用于加热大气的能量比蒸发水分消耗的能量高,但高寒草甸例外;农田下垫面可利用能量的大部分消耗于蒸发,消耗于加热大气的能量不到20%。水含量越高,潜热通量越大,能量闭合率越低,能量过程也更复杂。 相似文献
20.
Atmospheric variability is driven not only by internal dynamics, but also by external forcing, such as soil states, SST, snow, sea-ice cover, and so on. To investigate the forecast uncertainties and effects of land surface processes on numerical weather prediction, we added modules to perturb soil moisture and soil temperature into NCEP’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), and compared the results of a set of experiments involving different configurations of land surface and atmospheric perturbation. It was found that uncertainties in different soil layers varied due to the multiple timescales of interactions between land surface and atmospheric processes. Perturbations of the soil moisture and soil temperature at the land surface changed sensible and latent heat flux obviously, as compared to the less or indirect land surface perturbation experiment from the day-to-day forecasts. Soil state perturbations led to greater variation in surface heat fluxes that transferred to the upper troposphere, thus reflecting interactions and the response to atmospheric external forcing. Various verification scores were calculated in this study. The results indicated that taking the uncertainties of land surface processes into account in GEFS could contribute a slight improvement in forecast skill in terms of resolution and reliability, a noticeable reduction in forecast error, as well as an increase in ensemble spread in an under-dispersive system. This paper provides a preliminary evaluation of the effects of land surface processes on predictability. Further research using more complex and suitable methods is needed to fully explore our understanding in this area. 相似文献