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1.
Stable Isotope Ratios: Hurricane Olivia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions of rains from HurricaneOlivia (1994) in the eastern Pacific were measured. The rains werecollected on 24 and 25 September during airplane flights conducted at anelevation of 3 km. Hurricane Olivia peaked in intensity to a category-4storm between the two dates. Isotope ratios of rains from HurricaneOlivia were markedly lower ( 18O = –13.9to –28.8) than that of rain collected from a thunderstormat an elevation of 2.3 km outside the influence of Olivia (18O = –3.8). A distinct decrease in isotoperatios from the first day to the next ( 18O =–18.4 to –21.9) in Hurricane Olivia wasattributed to decreased updraft velocities and outflow aloft. Thisshifted the isotopic water mass balance so that fewer hydrometeors werelifted and more ice descended to flight level. A decrease in the averagedeuterium excess from the first day to the next (d = 15.5 to 7.1)was attributed to an increase in the relative humidity of the watervapor `source' area. We hypothesize that the `source' region for therain was in the boundary layer near the storm center and that becausethe hurricane was at peak intensity prior to the second day the relative humidity was higher.  相似文献   

2.
The stable carbon isotope ratios of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC) and methyl chloride emitted from biomass burning were determined by analyzing seven whole air samples collected during different phases of the burning process as part of a laboratory study of wood burning. The average of the stable carbon isotope ratios of emitted alkanes, alkenes and aromatic compounds is identical to that of the burnt fuel; more than 50% of the values are within a range of ±1.5 of thecomposition of the burnt fuel wood. Thus for the majority of NMHC emitted from biomass burning stable carbon isotope ratio of the burnt fuel a good first order approximation for the isotopic composition of the emissions. Of the more than twenty compounds we studied, only methyl chloride and ethyne differed in stable carbon isotope ratios by more than a few per mil from the composition of the fuel. Ethyne is enriched in 13C by approximately 20–30, and most of the variability can beexplained by a dependence on flame temperature. The 13C values decreaseby 0.019 /K (±0.0053/K) with increasing temperature. Methyl chloride is highly depleted in 13C, on average by25. However the results cover a wide range of nearly 30. Specifically, in two measurements with wood from Eucalyptus (Eucalyptus delegatensis) as fuel we observed the emission of extremely light methyl chloride (–68.5and–65.5). This coincides with higher than average emission ratiosfor methyl chloride (15.5 × 10–5 and 18 ×10–5 mol CH3Cl/mol CO2). These high emission ratios are consistent with the highchlorine content of the burnt fuel, although, due to the limited number of measurements, it would be premature to generalize these findings. The limited number of observations also prevents any conclusion on a systematic dependence between chlorine content of the fuel, emission ratios and stable carbon isotope ratio of methyl chloride emissions. However, our results show that a detailed understanding of the emissions of methyl chloride from chloride rich fuels is important for understanding its global budget. It is also evident that the usefulness of stable carbon isotope ratios to constrain the global budget of methyl chloride will be complicated by the very large variability of the stable carbon isotope ratio of biomass burning emissions. Nevertheless, ultimately the large fractionation may provide additional constraints for the contribution of biomass burning emissions to the atmospheric budget of methyl chloride.  相似文献   

3.
A technique was developed that allows the determination of the stable carbon isotope ratio of isoprene in air. The method was used for a limited number of ambient measurements as well as laboratory studies of isoprene emitted from Velvet Bean (Mucana pruriens L. var. utilis), including the light and temperature dependence. The mean stable carbon isotope ratio ( 13C) of isoprene emitted from Velvet Bean (Mucana pruriens L. var. utilis) for all our measurements is –27.7 ± 2.0 (standard deviation for 23 data points). Our results indicate a small dependence of the stable carbon isotope ratios on leaf temperature and photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD). The light dependence is 0.0026 ± 0.0012/( mol of photons m–2 s–1) for the studied range from 400 to 1700 mol of photons m–2 s–1. The temperature dependence is 0.16 ± 0.09/K. On average, the emitted isoprene is 2.6 ± 0.9 lighter than the leaf carbon. An uncertainty analysis of the possibility to use stable carbon isotope ratio measurements of isoprene for estimates of its mean photochemical age suggests that meaningful results can be obtained. This is supported by the results of a small number of measurements of the stable carbon isotope composition of ambient isoprene at different locations. The results range from approximately –29 to –16. They are consistent with vegetation emissions of isoprene that is slightly depleted in 13C relative to the plant material and enrichment of 13C in the atmosphere due to isotope fractionation associated with the reaction with OH-radicals. The stable carbon isotope ratio of ambient isoprene at locations directly influenced by isoprene emissions is very close to the values we found in our emission studies, whereas at sites located remote from isoprene emitting vegetation we find substantial enrichment of 13C. This suggests that stable carbon isotope ratio measurements will be a valuable, quantitative method to determine the extent of photochemical processing of isoprene in ambient air.  相似文献   

4.
Summary The performance of evaporation schemes with and approach and their combination within resistance representation of evaporation from bare soil surface is discussed. For this purpose nine schemes, based on different functions of or , on the ratio of the volumetric soil moisture content and its saturated value are used.The quality of the chosen schemes has been evaluated using the results of time integration by the coupled soil moisture and surface temperature prediction model, BARESOIL, using in situ data. A sensitivity analysis was made using two sets of data derived from the volumetric soil moisture content of the top soil layer. One with values below the wilting point (0.17 m3m–3) and the second with values above 0.20m3m–3. Data sets were obtained at the experimental site Rimski anevi, Yugoslavia, from the bare surface of a chernozem soil.With 4 Figures  相似文献   

5.
Summary The interannual variations in sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial east Pacific, which are dominated by the El Niño phenomenon, are shown for the period 1870–1983. Since 1870 25 significant warm events have occurred. These events are classified as weak, moderate, strong and very strong, according to the normalized SST anomalies in the region 130° W–80° W, 0°–5° S.The spatial and temporal development of a composite El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode, based on 10 very strong or strong events, is presented in terms of SST, surface wind and divergence anomalies for the tropical Pacific (10° N–30° S). During its evolution the following phases are distinguished: Antecedent Conditions, Onset Phase, Peak Phase, Mature Phase and Dissipation Stage.Some aspects of ocean-atmosphere interaction associated with this evolution and, more specifically, the initiation of the composite event, are described. Seasonally varying feedback processes between SST, surface wind and convergence anomaly patterns in the western Pacific/Indonesian region suggest a possible mechanism for the initiation of typical ENSO events.
Zusammenfassung Die interannuären Variationen der Meeresoberflächentemperatur (SST) im äquatorialen Ostpazifik, die von dem El Niño-Phänomen dominiert werden, werden für die Periode 1870–1983 aufgezeigt. Seit 1870 traten 25 signifikante Ereignisse auf. Diese Ereignisse werden entsprechend den normierten SST-Anomalien in der Region 130° W–80° W, 0°–5° S als schwach, mittel, stark und sehr stark klassifiziert.Die räumliche und zeitliche Entwicklung einer Komposit-El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Episode, die auf 10 sehr starken bzw. starken Ereignissen basiert, wird anhand von SST-, Bodenwind- und Divergenzanomalien für den tropischen Pazifik (10° N–30° S) dargestellt. Während ihrer Entwicklung werden die folgenden Phasen unterschieden: Vorausgehende Bedingungen, Einsetzphase, Spitzenphase, Reifestadium und Auflösungsstadium.Einige Aspekte der Wechselbeziehungen Ozean—Atmosphäre werden im Zusammenhang mit der Entwicklung und insbesondere der Auslösung des Komposit-Ereignisses beschrieben. Jahreszeitlich variierende Rückkopplungsprozesse zwischen SST-, Bodenwind- und Konvergenzanomalien in der westpazifischen/indonesischen Region stellen einen möglichen Mechanismus für die Auslösung typischer ENSO-Ereignisse dar.

With 9 Figures  相似文献   

6.
The reactions of alkoxy radicals determine to a large extent the products formed during the atmospheric degradations of emitted organic compounds. Experimental data concerning the decompositions, 1,5-H shift isomerizations and reactions with O2 of several classes of alkoxy radicals are inconsistent with literature estimations of their absolute or relative rate constants. An alternative, although empirical, method for assessing the relative importance under atmospheric conditions of the reactions of alkoxy radicals with O2 versus decomposition was derived. This estimation method utilizes the differences in the heats of reaction, (H)=(Hdecomposition–HO 2 reaction), between these two reactions pathways. For (H)[22–0.5(HO 2 reaction)], alkoxy radical decomposition dominates over the reaction with O2 at room temperature and atmospheric pressure of air, while for (H)[25-0.5(HO 2 reaction)], the O2 reaction dominates over decomposition (where the units of H are in kcal mol–1). The utility and shortcomings of this approach are discussed. It is concluded that further studies concerning the reactions of alkoxy radicals are needed.  相似文献   

7.
Six locations across mainland Portugal were selected for exposing Parmelia sulcata, for a one-year period (8 months for one site), with simultaneous measurement of total (dry + wet) deposition (one-month periods). The exposed lichens and the total (dry + wet) deposition were analysed for cobalt contents by INAA (instrumental neutron activation analysis) and ICP-MS (inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy), respectively. The designated wet deposition was evaluated through the collected water volume; the designated dry deposition was assessed after the (dried) residual mass of the wet deposition. An excellent agreement between Co contents in exposed lichens and the cumulative (1) Co contents in the dry deposition, (2) dry deposition, and (3) wet deposition has been found for the locations with alternate drought and precipitation months, high dry deposition, and high Co contents in the latter. Continuous rainfall was found to hinder the Co accumulation in the lichen due to its release from the lichen and/or lower Co contents in the dry deposition. At three locations, P. sulcata Co contents, after subtraction of the background (before exposure), equalled or exceeded the Co contents in the cumulative dry deposition at the end of the exposure time. The optimal exposure period for this species likely depends on the exposure conditions.  相似文献   

8.
Weekly bulk aerosol samples collected at Funafuti, Tuvalu (8°30S, 179°12E), American Samoa (14°15S, 170°35W), and Rarotonga (21°15S, 159°45W), from 1983 through most of 1987 have been analyzed for nitrate and other constituents. The mean nitrate concentration is about 0.11 g m–3 at each of these stations: 0.107±0.011 g m–3 at Funafuti; 0.116±0.008 at American Samoa; and 0.117±0.010 at Rarotonga. Previous measurements of mineral aerosol and trace metal concentrations at American Samoa are among the lowest ever recorded for the near-surface troposphere and indicate that this region is minimally affected by transport of soil material and pollutants from the continents. Consequently, the nitrate concentration of 0.11 g m–3 can be regarded as the natural level for the remote marine boundary layer of the tropical South Pacific Ocean. In contrast, over the tropical North Pacific which is significantly impacted by the transport of material from Asia and North America, the mean nitrate concentrations are about three times higher, 0.29 and 0.36 g m–3 at Midway and Oahu, respectively. The major sources of the nitrate over the tropical South Pacific are still very uncertain. A very significant correlation between the nitrate concentrations at American Samoa and the concentrations of 210Pb suggests that transport from continental sources might be important. This continental source could be lightning, which occurs most frequently over the tropical continents. A near-zero correlation with 7Be indicates that the stratosphere and upper troposphere are probably not the major sources. A significant biogenic source would be consistent with the higher mean nitrate concentrations, 0.16 to 0.17 g m–3, found over the equatorial Pacific at Fanning Island (3°55N, 159°20W) and Nauru (0°32S, 166°57E). The lack of correlation between nitrate and nss sulfate at American Samoa does not necessarily preclude an important role for marine biogenic sources.  相似文献   

9.
Flux densities of carbon dioxide were measured over an arid, vegetation-free surface by eddy covariance techniques and by a heat budget-profile method, in which CO2 concentration gradients were specified in terms of mixing ratios. This method showed negligible fluxes of CO2, consistent with the bareness of the experimental site, whereas the eddy covariance measurements indicated large downward fluxes of CO2. These apparently conflicting observations are in quantitative agreement with the results of a recent theory which predicts that whenever there are vertical fluxes of sensible or latent heat, a mean vertical velocity is developed. This velocity causes a mean vertical convective mass flux (= cw for CO2, in standard notation). The eddy covariance technique neglects this mean convective flux and measures only the turbulent flux c w. Thus, when the net flux of CO2 is zero, the eddy covariance method indicates an apparent flux which is equal and opposite to the mean convective flux, i.e., c w = – c w. Corrections for the mean convective flux are particularly significant for CO2 because cw and c w are often of similar magnitude. The correct measurement of the net CO2 flux by eddy covariance techniques requires that the fluxes of sensible and latent heat be measured as well.  相似文献   

10.
Summary The evolving modes of the sea-surface temperature (SST) in the Tropical Atlantic on the short interannual (IA) timescale were obtained by performing the extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analyses on this variable separately for the 106-year (1871–1976) and 20-year (1881–1900; 1901–1920; 1921–1940; 1941–1960) periods. The equatorial and inter-hemispheric patterns manifest in the first EEOF mode of each analysis as part of the short IA evolution of the SST anomalies in the Tropical Atlantic. Another outstanding feature of the first EEOF mode of each analysis concerns the propagations of the SST anomalies in the meridional direction within the 20°N–20°S band and in the zonal direction in the sector 40°W–20°W. For all analyses, the SST anomalies propagate northward from the equator to 15°N and southward from 20°N to 15°N, with the same sign anomalies merging approximately at 15°N. On the other hand, the SST anomalies propagate westward in the sector 40°W–20°W with a propagation rate close to that of the phase speed of the fastest baroclinic Rossby wave in the ocean. So, the observed propagations of the SST anomalies in the 20°N–20°S band might result from the combined effect of the surface oceanic currents in this band and the baroclinic Rossby waves in the ocean.  相似文献   

11.
A novel and readily applicable Structure-Activity Relationship (SAR) for predicting the barrier height Eb to decomposition by C-C scission of (substituted) alkoxy radicals is presented. Alkoxy radicals are pivotal intermediates in the atmospheric oxidation of (biogenic) volatile organic compounds, and their fate is therefore of crucial importance to the understanding of atmospheric VOC degradation mechanisms. The SAR is based on available theoretical energy barriers and validated against barriers derived from experimental data. The SAR is expressed solely in terms of the number(s) Ni of alkyl-, hydroxy- and/or oxo-substituents on the - and -carbons of the breaking bond: Eb(kcal/mol) =17.5 – 2.1 × N(alk) – 3.1 ×N(alk) – 8.0 × N,(OH) – 8.0 × N(O=) – 12 × N(O=). For barriers below 7 kcal/mol, an additional, second-order term accounts for the curvature. The SAR reproduces the available experimental and theoretical data within 0.5 to 1 kcal/mol. The SAR generally allows conclusive predictions as to the fate of alkoxy radicals; several examples concerning oxy radicals from prominent atmospheric VOC are presented. Specific limitations of the SAR are also discussed. Using the predicted barrier height Eb, the high-pressure rate coefficient for alkoxy decomposition k diss (298 K) can be obtained from k diss (298 K) = L ×1.8 × 1013 exp(–Eb/RT) s–1, with L the reaction path degeneracy.  相似文献   

12.
Recently Wilson and Flesch (Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 84, 411-426, 1997) suggested that the average increment d z to the orientation = arctan(w/u) of the Lagrangian velocity-fluctuation vector can be used to distinguish the better Lagrangian stochastic models within the well-mixed class. Here it is demonstrated that the specification of d z constitutes neither a sufficient or universally applicable criterion to distinguish the better Lagrangian stochastic models within the well-mixed class. The hypothesis made by Wilson and Flesch that Lagrangian stochastic models with /PE irrotational are zero-spin models, having d z=0, is proven  相似文献   

13.
Thermal comfort of man in different urban environments   总被引：2，自引：4，他引：2  
Summary On July 29, 1985, a hot summer day, biometeorological measurements were performed simultaneously in three different urban structures within the city of Munich and in the trunk space of a nearby tall spruce forest. Based on the results of these experiments the following thermophysiologically relevant biometeorological indices were calculated: Predicted mean vote, skin wettedness and physiologically equivalent temperature. These three indices are derived from different models for the human energy balance. They allow the assessment of the thermal components of the microclimates at the selected sites with regard to application in urban planning. The results quantitatively show the great heat stress in the urban structure street canyon, exposed to south, whereas in the trunk space of the tall spruce forest there is nearly an optimal climate even on hot summer days. Between these extremes the results for street canyon, exposed to north show a little higher heat load than for backyard with trees.
Zusammenfassung An einem heißen Sommertag, dem 29. Juli 1985, wurden in drei Stadtstrukturen in München und im Stammraum eines nahegelegenen Fichtenhochwaldes zeitgleich biometeorologische Messungen durchgeführt. Mit den Meßergebnissen wurden folgende thermophysiologisch relevante biometeorologische Indizes berechnet: Predicted mean vote, Hautbenetzungsgrad und physiologisch äquivalente Temperatur. Diese drei Indizes beruhen auf verschiedenen Modellen zur menschlichen Energiebilanz. Mit den drei Indizes wurden die thermischen Komponenten der Mikroklimate an den ausgewählten Meßplätzen im Hinblick auf Stadtplanungsaufgaben bewertet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen quantitativ die relativ große Hitzebelastung bei der Stadtstruktur Straßenschlucht, nach Süd exponiert, während im Stammraum des Fichtenhochwaldes selbst an heißen Sommertagen nahezu optimale Bedingungen herrschen. Zwischen diesen Extremen liegen die Ergebnisse für die anderen Meßplätze, wobei für Straßenschlucht, nach Nord exponiert die Wärmebelastung etwas höher als für Innenhof mit Bäumen ist.

With 6 Figures  相似文献   

14.
Summary The influence of agricultural management on the CO2 budget of a typical subalpine grassland was investigated at the Swiss CARBOMONT site at Rigi-Seebodenalp (1025m a.s.l.) in Central Switzerland. Eddy covariance flux measurements obtained during the first growing season from the mid of spring until the first snow fall (17 Mai to 25 September 2002) are reported. With respect to the 10-year average 1992–2001, we found that this growing season had started 10 days earlier than normal, but was close to average temperature with above-normal precipitation (100–255% depending on month). Using a footprint model we found that a simple approach using wind direction sectors was adequate to classify our CO2 fluxes as being controlled by either meadow or pasture. Two significantly different light response curves could be determined: one for periods with external interventions (grass cutting, cattle grazing) and the other for periods without external interventions. Other than this, meadow and pasture were similar, with a net carbon gain of –128±17g Cm–2 on the undisturbed meadow, and a net carbon loss of 79±17g Cm–2 on the managed meadow, and 270±24g Cm–2 on the pasture during 131 days of the growing season, respectively. The grass cut in June reduced the gross CO2 uptake of the meadow by 50±2% until regrowth of the vegetation. Cattle grazing reduced gross uptake over the whole vegetation period (37±2%), but left respiration at a similar level as observed in the meadow.  相似文献   

15.
Summary An analysis of the report of the (U.S.) National Academy of Sciences (NAS) on atmospheric effects of a nuclear exchange leads to conclusions that differ from those of the NAS and of the earlier TTAPS and AMBIO studies. Any cooling of the earth's surface is likely to beshort-lived because of rapid removal of the smoke clouds originating from nuclear burst-initiated fires, andminor because of appreciable green-house effects due to several distinct physical causes. (One of these, neglected in prior analyses, is the infrared absorption from cirrus clouds produced directly by the nuclear bursts.) Taken together, these effects may even induce slight surface warming (nuclear summer) instead of cooling (nuclear winter). The consequences to atmospheric ozone are similarly ambiguous; depending on the detailed nuclear scenario, the net ozone content may increase-rather than decrease as argued by TTAPS. Experiments could settle some uncertainties.With 2 Figures  相似文献   

16.
This study examines the statistical properties of the concentration derivative, , for a dispersing plume in a near-neutrally stratified atmospheric surface layer. Towards this goal, the probability density function (pdf) of , and the conditional pdf of given a fixed concentration level, , have been measured. These pdfs are found to be modeled well by a generalizedq-Gaussian (gqG) distribution with intermittency exponent,q, equal to 0.3 and 3/4, respectively. These results highlight the strong intermittency effect (patchiness) of the small-scale concentration eddy structures in the plume. The distribution of time intervals between successive high peaks in the squared derivative process, x2, is found to be well approximated by a power-law distribution, implying that occurrences of these high peaks are much more clustered than would be predicted by a Poisson or shot-noise process. The results are used to improve models for the joint pdf of and , and for the expected number of upcrossings per unit time interval of a fixed concentration level that have been proposed by Kristensenet al. (1989). The predictions of the improved models are in accord with observations, and suggest that the intercorrelation between and must be explicitly incorporated if good estimates of the upcrossing intensity are to be obtained.  相似文献   

17.
Summary The integral aerosol optical depths (k ) at the hour of 08:20 Local Standard Time (LST), are compared with those calculated previously at 11:20 and 14:20 LST, for clear days during summer in Athens over the period 1962–1988. The mean values at 08:20 LST were consistently lower than the values at 11:20 and 14:20 LST. The influence of the vertical wind profile on the values ofk was also investigated. A comparison was made of the wind profiles at 02:00 and 14:00 LST, for days in which the 11:20 and 14:20 LST values ofk were 0.200 andk 0.350, respectively. The corresponding bulk wind shear s was also found for the period 1980–1988. The most significant results occurred with the first category of days. The resultant wind velocities from the surface to the 900 hPa level, in each hour were higher by 2–4 m·s–1 with respect to the corresponding values for the second category. At 02:00 LST the bulk wind shear showed a considerable difference (1.8) between the two categories of days in the surface to 700 hPa layer at 02:00 LST. Finally, the associated weather conditions that appear to initiate a period of low values ofk (k 0.200) at 11:20 and 14:20 LST were examined for the period 1980–1988. Fifteen such cases were identified and it was found that they all occurred after the passage of weak cold fronts.With 6 Figures  相似文献   

18.
From measured one-dimensional spectra of velocity and temperature variance, the universal functions of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory are calculated for the range –2 z/L + 2. The calculations show good agreement with observations with the exception of a range –1 z/L 0 in which the function m , i.e., the nondimensional mean shear, is overestimated. This overestimation is shown to be caused by neglecting the spectral divergence of a vertical transport of turbulent kinetic energy. The integral of the spectral divergence over the entire wave number space is suggested to be negligibly small in comparison with production and dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy.Notation a,b,c contants (see Equations (–4)) - Ci constants i=u, v, w, (see Equation (5) - kme,kmT peak wave numbers of 3-d moel spectra of turbulent kinetic energy and of temperature variance, respectively - kmi peak wave numbers of 1-d spectra of velocity components i=u, v, w and of temperature fluctuations i= - ksb, kc characteristics wave numbers of energy-feeding by mechanical effects being modified by mean buoyancy, and of convective energy feeding, respectively - L Monin-Obukhov length - % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% Gabeivayaaraaaaa!3C5B!\[{\rm{\bar T}}\] difference of mean temperature and mean potential temperature - T* Monin-Obukhov temperature scale - velocity of mean flow in positive x-direction - u* friction velocity - u, v, w components of velocity fluctuations - z height above ground - von Kármanán constant - temperature fluctuation - m nondimensional mean shear - H nondimensional mean temperature gradient - nondimensional rate of lolecular dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy - D nondimensional divergence of vertical transports of turbulent linetic energy  相似文献   

19.
Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO2, or equivalent CO2 implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO2 doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO2 doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil  相似文献   

20.
Parameterizing turbulent diffusion through the joint probability density   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  
The convective mass flux parameterization often used in meteorological modeling expresses the vertical flux of a transported scalar as proportional to the product of the difference in mean values of the scalar in updrafts and downdrafts and their characteristic velocity. The proportionality factor is a constant to be specified. We show that this proportionality factor also appears in the relaxed eddy accumulation technique of Businger and Oncley. That associates the surface-layer flux of a scalar with the product of the standard deviation of vertical velocity and the mean concentration difference between updrafts and downdrafts.We show that this constant (b) is determined uniquely by the joint probability density (jpd) of vertical velocity and the scalar. Using large-eddy simulation, we generate this jpd for a conservative scalar diffusing through a convective boundary layer. It has quite different forms in top-down and bottom-up diffusion geometries. The bottom-up jpd is fairly well represented by a jointly Gaussian form and implies b ~ 0.6, in good agreement with the surface-layer value reported by Businger and Oncley. The top-down jpd is strikingly non-Gaussian and gives b ~ 0.47. Updrafts carry the bulk of the scalar flux - 70% in the bottom-up case, 60% in the top-down case.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

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