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1.
SW物候模型在北京樱花始花期预测中的应用   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8  
基于海淀气象站1981—2012年逐日平均气温资料和2014年3月逐日平均气温滚动预报资料,应用SW物候模型,进行了2014年北京玉渊潭公园杭州早樱始花期的预测试验,取得了较好的效果。试验结果表明:应用SW模型预测2014年杭州早樱的始花期,提前10天预测的结果(始花期为3月27日)和自然条件下的实况值偏差为3~4天,提前一周左右预测的结果(始花期为3月25日)和自然条件下的实况值,偏差为1~2天。研究结果进一步验证了SW物候模型用于观赏植物观赏期预测的适用性较高,可进行更广泛的业务试用。  相似文献   

2.
基于北京市丰台区气象站2009—2018年地面观测资料和2020、2021年3月丰台区预报资料,配合气温精细化订正,应用SW物候模型,对2020年、2021年北京丰台区北宫森林公园、千灵山风景区山桃花始花期进行了预测试验。试验结果表明:提前10 d预测的结果和自然条件下的实况值偏差为1~2 d,提前一周左右可较为准确地预测山桃花始花期。结合气象因子对前期气温预报值进行精细化订正,可提高SW物候模型用于观赏植物观赏期预测的适用性,得到较为准确的花期预测值,并可在花期观赏相关的旅游气象服务业务中进行推广应用。  相似文献   

3.
中国地面气温统计降尺度预报方法研究   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0       下载免费PDF全文
利用中国752个基本、基准地面气象观测站2000—2010年地面温度日值数据,采用具有自适应特征的Kalman滤波类型的递减平均统计降尺度技术,对中国地面温度进行精细化预报研究。分析该方案的降尺度效果,并与常用插值降尺度方法进行比较。结果表明:1)递减平均统计降尺度技术相比插值方法有较大的提高,显著减小东西部预报效果差异,1~3 d预报的均方根误差减小了1.4℃;2)该方案1~3 d预报的均方根误差为1.5℃,预报误差从东南地区(均方根误差为1.4℃)向西北地区(均方根误差为1.8℃)逐渐增大,并且预报效果夏季优于冬季。因此,递减平均统计降尺度技术对中国地面温度进行精细化预报是可行的。  相似文献   

4.
利用2009—2010年北京地区潮土茄田定位试验资料和气象、土壤及栽培管理措施等资料,采用SMCR__N蔬菜作物模型对北京地区潮土紫长茄和圆茄产量及圆茄吸氮量进行了模拟,校正模型参数并对模型进行了初步评价,为模型本地化提供参考。结果表明:SMCR__N模型中茄子品种参数适用于模拟北京地区潮土紫长茄产量,其模拟总干重的均方根差(RMSE)为0.42t·hm-2,标准化均方根差(n-RMSE)为0.06,模型预测效率(EF)为0.95,E=0.400.00,拟合指数(d)为0.99,决定系数(R2)=0.96。定位试验的圆茄品种与SMCR__N模型茄子品种参数存在差异,需调整相关茄子品种参数值。作物总干重敏感性分析表明,作物生长系数(K1)为SMCR__N模型敏感性参数,当K1=1.4t·hm-2时,模型模拟性能最好,RMSE=1.2t·hm-2,n-RMSE=0.12,EF=0.59,E=0.76,d=0.93,R2=0.80。参数校正后,对2010年北京地区潮土圆茄的吸氮量进行了模拟,R2=0.85,模拟性能良好。通过校准作物参数,SMCR__N模型可较准确地模拟北京地区潮土露地茄子总干重和吸氮量的动态变化,适用性较强,可用于指导北京地区潮土茄田的施氮水平,为合理施肥提供科学依据。  相似文献   

5.
基于积温模型丹东地区桃树盛花期预测研究   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
利用2005—2015年丹东市河口地区桃树盛花期物候观测资料和宽甸国家基准气候站的逐日平均气温观测资料,分析了丹东地区桃树盛花期与气温要素之间的关系,并采用活动积温、有效积温和滑动积温3种积温模型对丹东地区桃树盛花期进行预测。结果表明:基于国际通用的SW(Spring Warming)物候模型原理建立了活动积温、有效积温和滑动积温3种积温模型模拟丹东地区的桃树盛花期,采用0.1℃温度间隔普查和数学偏差方法确定每种积温模型最具代表性的界限温度及桃树花期前积温阈值,并检验评估3种积温模型的适用性。滑动积温模型对丹东市河口地区桃树盛花期的预测适用性最好,内部检验的准确率为90.91%;其次为活动积温模型(81.82%),有效积温模型的预测效果最差(63.64%)。通过统计2005—2015年5 d滑动积温稳定通过区间最高气温和最低气温的平均值作为判断桃树盛花期的生长指标,使滑动积温模型达到最佳预测效果。因此,丹东地区桃树盛花期预测采取滑动积温模型方法较适用。  相似文献   

6.
为进一步研究WOFOST模型在河南省冬麦区的适用性,以河南省30个农业气象观测站1991—2014年冬小麦观测资料、历史气象资料和土壤资料为依据,对WOFOST模型进行逐站调参和验证,分别建立了30个站的冬小麦模型参数。其中1991—2010年为模型调参年份,2011—2014年为模型验证年份。各站开花期和成熟期调参模拟的归一化均方根误差NRMSE分别小于5%和3%,验证误差分别为3.7%和2.9%。除潢川和固始外,模型对其余各站产量模拟的归一化均方根误差NRMSE全省各站均小于20.0%,验证误差全省平均为15.2%,大部分站点观测值和模拟值相关系数r通过了显著检验。利用调参后的模型模拟2011—2014年冬小麦生长动态变化可知,模拟地上部总干物重与实测单株干物重、模拟LAI与单株叶面积有较一致的变化趋势,拟合度较高。因此,WOFOST模型对河南省冬小麦主要发育阶段、产量及干物质积累模拟能力较强,具有良好的应用前景。  相似文献   

7.
基于空气污染指数的太阳日总辐射计算方法   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
通过对2001—2012年全国23个站实测资料的分析,利用非线性回归法建立了以气温日较差、天文日照百分率和空气污染指数为主导因子的太阳日总辐射模型,这里简称为DSRM-Y模型 (Daily Solar Radiation Model-Y),检验其效果并与已有的DSRM-C模型 (Daily Solar Radiation Model-C) 进行效果比对。结果表明:太阳日总辐射与空气污染指数呈显著负相关,DSRM-Y模型的太阳日总辐射估算值与实测值的散点图以及平均偏差、均方根误差、误差分析均表现出较好的拟合效果。将模型应用于西宁、上海、昆明3个代表站,空气污染指数上升后,3个站太阳日总辐射均呈减少趋势;23个站DSRM-Y模型的均方根误差均小于DSRM-C模型,即DSRM-Y模型的拟合效果好于DSRM-C模型。  相似文献   

8.
本文利用蚊虫密度监测数据及气象资料,分析了2009—2019年北京市及其14个区的蚊虫密度与气象条件间的关系,并基于多元回归、支持向量机和随机森林3种经典的机器学习回归方法进行了蚊虫密度预测。结果表明:北京地区蚊虫密度呈周期性的波动,各区多年平均值在0.35~2.54只/(灯·h)之间,高峰值集中出现在7月中旬到8月中旬,与北京地区气温最高和降水最集中的时期非常吻合。采用机器学习方法,尝试了4种输入因子方案,并利用均方根误差和平均绝对百分误差两种方法进行预测效果检验,显示蚊虫数据相对较稳定的地区,如平谷、门头沟、大兴、海淀等地,预测效果相对更优。在3种方法中,支持向量机方法对2019年5月下旬的预测效果非常好,而多元回归与随机森林的预测效果则在2019年5—10月整体上表现得更为稳定。  相似文献   

9.
基于中国科学院南海海洋研究所提供的2012年1月1日—2013年12月31日西沙自动气象站观测资料以及同时间序列的欧洲中心ERA-interim再分析风场产品,统计了ASCAT和HY-2A散射计风场产品的误差特征,分析散射计资料在南海的适用性。分析得出:ASCAT和HY-2A的风速、风向与自动站一致性高,相关系数均大于0.85,ASCAT风速和风向均方根误差分别为1.57 m/s和15.42 °,HY-2A均方根误差略微偏大,分别为2.02 m/s和24.75 °;ASCAT和HY-2A散射计与ERA-interim风速、风向有很好的一致性,在不考虑低风速( < 3 m/s)的条件下,风速均方根误差分别为1.40 m/s和1.56 m/s,风向均方根误差分别为15.09 °和17.07 °,与设计精度一致,表明ASCAT与HY-2A风场产品在南海是适用的。此外,散射计相对再分析风场的偏差没有明显的季节性变化   相似文献   

10.
利用1980—2016年第二松花江流域(SSR)夏季(6—8月)平均降水量资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均环流场资料、NOAA的月平均海温场资料,采用年际增量预测方法,通过分析与SSR夏季降水年际增量相关的环流及海温,确定了超前12个月内的6个预测因子,包括:11月东亚200hPa纬向风、12月西藏高原-2指数、12月赤道中东太平洋200hPa纬向风、2月印度洋海温、10月西太平洋暖池海温、4月东亚100hPa经向风。在此基础上利用这 6个预测因子,利用1980—2010资料建立SSR夏季降水年际增量的统计预测模型,最后根据年际增量给出SSR夏季降水的预测结果。经检验,1981—2010年,SSR夏季降水年际增量的预测拟合系数是0.83,SSR夏季降水预测结果拟合系数为0.67,SSR夏季降水预测结果相对均方根误差为15%,均通过了显著性检验;对2011—2016年进行试报实验,该模型也很好的预测出降水的年际增量变化趋势,除2014年以外,SSR夏季降水预测结果相对均方根误差绝对值都控制在23%以内,2016年仅为-9.9%。因此,通过预测降水的年际增量,进而再预测降水的方法,具有一定的预测技巧,可作为有效方法投入实际业务应用。  相似文献   

11.
不同物候模型对作物发育期模拟的对比分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
作物发育期预报在农业气象业务中具有重要意义。通过比较4种作物发育期模型的模拟效果,为中国东北地区作物发育期预报提供参考。基于东北地区玉米、水稻和大豆的发育期观测数据及其对应的气象资料,利用模拟退火算法估算了4个发育期模型的参数值,并对模型进行内外部验证。结果表明:在参数本地化过程中,高亮之模型和沈国权模型的效果较好,均方根误差平均分别为3.31d和3.72d。在模型验证过程中,沈国权模型的模拟效果较好,均方根误差平均为5.22d,因此,相对而言,沈国权模型对作物发育期模拟效果较好。  相似文献   

12.
陕西苹果花期机理性预报模型的适用性评价   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3       下载免费PDF全文
以陕西苹果花期为研究对象,针对4个机理性物候模型——顺序模型(SM)、平行模型(PM)、深度休息模型(DRM)和热时模型(TTM),基于各果区代表站的花期数据及同期气象数据订正模型参数,利用内部检验和交叉验证(留一验证)方法,评价模型在模拟花期上的适用性。结果表明:内部检验时各站点的最适模型不同,总体上,SM和TTM均方根误差略低(3.30 d);交叉验证时模型表现相当,各模型平均的均方根误差为4.52 d,略优于内部检验。使用单站外推和求平均后外推将TTM参数应用至果区内其他站,这两种方法的均方根误差均优于国外同类研究(10.0 d),其中单站外推的均方根误差(5.90 d)又高于求平均后外推(7.21 d)。综合考虑模型的复杂性与模拟精度,推荐使用TTM并分果区模拟陕西苹果花期。  相似文献   

13.
Phenology data are sensitive data to identify how plants are adapted to local climate and how they respond to climatic changes. Modeling flowering phenology allows us to identify the meteorological variables determining the reproductive cycle. Phenology of temperate of woody plants is assumed to be locally adapted to climate. Nevertheless, recent research shows that local adaptation may not be an important constraint in predicting phenological responses. We analyzed variations in flowering dates of Olea europaea L. at different sites of Spain and Italy, testing for a genetic differentiation of flowering phenology among olive varieties to estimate whether local modeling is necessary for olive or not. We build models for the onset and peak dates flowering in different sites of Andalusia and Puglia. Process-based phenological models using temperature as input variable and photoperiod as the threshold date to start temperature accumulation were developed to predict both dates. Our results confirm and update previous results that indicated an advance in olive onset dates. The results indicate that both internal and external validity were higher in the models that used the photoperiod as an indicator to start to cumulate temperature. The use of the unified model for modeling the start and peak dates in the different localities provides standardized results for the comparative study. The use of regional models grouping localities by varieties and climate similarities indicate that local adaptation would not be an important factor in predicting olive phenological responses face to the global temperature increase.  相似文献   

14.
Over recent years, the Iberian Peninsula has witnessed an increase both in temperature and in rainfall intensity, especially in the Mediterranean climate area. Plant phenology is modulated by climate, and closely governed by water availability and air temperature. Over the period 1986–2012, the effects of climate change on phenology were analyzed in five crops at 26 sites growing in Spain (southern Europe): oats, wheat, rye, barley and maize. The phenophases studied were: sowing date, emergence, flag leaf sheath swollen, flowering, seed ripening and harvest. Trends in phenological response over time were detected using linear regression. Trends in air temperature and rainfall over the period prior to each phenophase were also charted. Correlations between phenological features, biogeographical area and weather trends were examined using a Generalized Lineal Mixed Model approach. A generalized advance in most winter-cereal phenophases was observed, mainly during the spring. Trend patterns differed between species and phenophases. The most noticeable advance in spring phenology was recorded for wheat and oats, the “Flag leaf sheath swollen” and “Flowering date” phenophases being brought forward by around 3 days/year and 1 day/year, respectively. Temperature changes during the period prior to phenophase onset were identified as the cause of these phenological trends. Climate changes are clearly prompting variations in cereal crop phenology; their consequences could be even more marked if climate change persists into the next century. Changes in phenology could in turn impact crop yield; fortunately, human intervention in crop systems is likely to minimize the negative impact.  相似文献   

15.
北京MST(mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere,中间层-平流层-对流层)雷达是我国“子午工程”一期中探测大气动力结构的独特大型设备。雷达自2011年建成以来,已获取较好的大气风场数据,但在其他要素提取方面仍有改进需求。从噪声电平估算与目标回波识别这两个关键步骤改进雷达原始功率谱密度处理算法,以期得到更准确的大气要素信息。在噪声电平估算方面,提出应用对数-线性拟合方案快速实现客观分析法,与二分法方案差值的标准差为0.43 dB,表明对数-线性拟合方案能兼顾时效性与准确性。改进后的数据处理算法能够精确识别目标回波。利用改进算法处理2012年1—12月数据结果与雷达、探空以及ERA5再分析数据进行比较,各高度纬向风与探空测值的均方根误差均为2~3 m·s-1,优于雷达产品和探空测值均方根误差(3~4 m·s-1),信噪比、谱宽和垂直速度质量也有明显提高,表明改进算法可靠、有效且相对易于实现。  相似文献   

16.
Climate parameters, especially temperature, sunlight, and precipitation, play a decisive role in growing and maturing processes. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between climate variability and variations in phenological events in viticulture. Long time series of daily meteorological observations are used to quantify these relations. The primary aim is to predict the date of phenological events by relationships between plant morphology and environmental conditions. Causal relationships between environment and internal activities of the vine (phytochemistry, cellular interactions, molecular and cell biology) are not our focus. The dates of the phenological events are important for planning treatments in the vineyards like pest management, for predicting the duration of the ripening phase and estimating the quality of the grapes and the vintage. The focus is layed on the region of the Upper Moselle, especially the Luxembourgian viticulture. First the regional climate and the phenological states of different vine varieties during the time period 1951?C2005 are analysed. Significant trends are detected in annual, spring and summer temperatures. Vine phenology is also found to have changed significantly; budburst date and flowering events occur earlier by about two weeks. In a second step, relationships between phenological events and climate parameters are used to develop a prediction model. The parameterisation used in this study is based on a linear multiple regression method with forward and backward steps. The predictors tested are mainly temperature means for different time periods or temperature derived indices. In addition precipitation and sunshine duration for different time periods are evaluated, but only the temperature based predictors showed sufficient skill. For the budburst event, the significant predictors are the accumulated degree days in March, the mean daily maximum temperature in April and the accumulated frost days from January to March. The flowering event is best predicted by the accumulated degree days in May and April, the mean daily maximum temperature in June, and the date of the budburst event. Depending on the vine variety and the phenological event, the model explains 80?C89% of the variance and has a correlation coefficient above 0.90 with the observations.  相似文献   

17.
利用贵州省惠水县农业气象站的油菜花观测资料以及逐日降水、平均气温和日照资料。采用相关分析以及逐步回归方法,分析各气象要素对惠水县油菜花盛花期的影响,结果表明:盛花期与越冬期积温呈明显的负相关性,活动积温越大,盛花期越早;盛花期距平与气温、日照和降水均有一定的关系,但是盛花期对气温因子比较敏感,对降水和日照因子不太敏感;利用各旬气温、降水和日照等40个因子进行逐步回归,得到盛花期距平的预报模型,进行回报检验拟合度较高。  相似文献   

18.
Temperate zone deciduous tree phenology may be vulnerable to projected temperature change, and associated geographical impact is of concern to ecologists. Although many phenology models have been introduced to evaluate climate change impact, there has been little attempt to show the spatial variation across a geographical region due to contamination by the urban heat island (UHI) effect as well as the insufficient spatial resolution of temperature data. We present a practical method for assessing climate change impact on tree phenology at spatial scales sufficient to accommodate the UHI effect. A thermal time-based two-step phenological model was adapted to simulate and project flowering dates of Japanese cherry (Prunus serrulata var. spontanea) in South Korea under the changing climates. The model consists of two sequential periods: the rest period described by chilling requirements and the forcing period described by heating requirements. Daily maximum and minimum temperature are used to calculate daily chill units until a pre-determined chilling requirement for rest release is met. After the projected rest release date, daily heat units (growing degree days) are accumulated until a pre-determined heating requirement for flowering is achieved. Model parameters were derived from the observed bud-burst and flowering dates of cherry tree at the Seoul station of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), along with daily temperature data for 1923–1948. The model was validated using the observed data at 18 locations across South Korea during 1955–2004 with a root mean square error of 5.1 days. This model was used to project flowering dates of Japanese cherry in South Korea from 1941 to 2100. Gridded data sets of daily maximum and minimum temperature with a 270 m grid spacing were prepared for the climatological normal years 1941–1970 and 1971–2000 based on observations at 56 KMA stations and a geospatial interpolation scheme for correcting urban heat island effect as well as elevation effect. We obtained a 25 km-resolution, 2011–2100 temperature projection data set covering peninsular Korea under the auspices of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change—Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 from the Meteorological Research Institute of KMA. The data set was converted to 270 m gridded data for the climatological years 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. The phenology model was run by the gridded daily maximum and minimum temperature data sets, each representing climatological normal years for 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100. According to the model calculation, the spatially averaged flowering date for the 1971–2000 normal is earlier than that for 1941–1970 by 5.2 days. Compared with the current normal (1971–2000), flowering of Japanese cherry is expected to be earlier by 9, 21, and 29 days in the future normal years 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, respectively. Southern coastal areas might experience springs with incomplete or even no flowering caused by insufficient chilling required for breaking bud dormancy.  相似文献   

19.
盘锦湿地芦苇物候特征及其对气候变化的响应   总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9       下载免费PDF全文
基于1987~1993年盘锦湿地芦苇(Phragmites communis)物候数据,分析了芦苇的萌动期、展叶期、开花期和枯黄期的物候特征,探讨了芦苇物候期与气候因子的关系,并利用2种积温模型模拟了芦苇的展叶期和开花期。结果表明:芦苇的展叶期和开花期具有相同的变化趋势,芦苇的枯黄期变化较小;3月和4月平均气温与芦苇展叶呈显著相关,年平均气温与芦苇展叶盛期和开花盛期呈显著相关,芦苇枯黄盛期与年降水量显著相关;积温模型可有效地预测芦苇的展叶期。  相似文献   

20.
黄土高原干旱山地花椒生长的气象条件分析   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
应用1998~2007年秦安县花椒树物候、产量资料及1961~2007年气象资料,运用统计学方法计算分析,得出影响秦安花椒生长的主要气象因子: 冬季平均最低气温,开花盛期的气温日较差、降水、日照时数,落花期和果实膨大期的平均最低气温,成熟期前期的极端最高气温、降水量,成熟期后期的日平均最高气温及日平均气温.花椒主要灾害是冻害和干旱.2000年以来初春冻害和7月干旱频率增多,花椒种植风险及不确定因素增多,应加强品种培育、土壤条件、栽培管理措施.  相似文献   

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