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ABSTRACTThe administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to stop the ongoing spiralling down of the U.S. coal industry. We discuss the origins of the decline and assess the effects of policy interventions by the Trump administration. We find that, with fierce competition from natural gas and renewables, a further decrease of coal consumption must be expected by the old and inefficient U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet. By contrast, we consider the overly optimistic (for coal producers) view of the U.S. Energy Information Agency, and test whether the tide for the U.S. coal industry could turn as a result of three potential support measures: (i) revoking the Clean Power Plan (CPP); (ii) facilitating access to the booming Asian market; and (iii) enhanced support for Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology. We investigate the short-term and long-term effects on U.S. coal production using a comprehensive partial equilibrium model of the world steam coal market, COALMOD-World (Holz, Haftendorn, Mendelevitch, & von Hirschhausen, 2016). We find that revoking the CPP could stop the downward trend of steam coal consumption in the U.S., but even allowing for additional exports, will not lead to a return of U.S. coal production to the levels of the 2000s, that is, over 900?Mt per year. When global steam coal use is aligned with the 2°C climate target, U.S. steam coal production drops to around 100?Mt per year by 2030 and below 50?Mt by 2050, even if CCTS is available and exports via the U.S. West Coast is possible.Key policy insights
Declining U.S. coal use is primarily caused by competition from natural gas and renewables not by environmental regulation of the coal sector.
Without substantial policy support, U.S. coal-fired generation capacity will continue to decline rapidly.
Revoking the Clean Power Plan will lead to about one eighth higher U.S. coal production in the next years.
Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage does not prevent the rapid decline of coal use required under stringent climate policy.
Even in the most extreme pro-coal scenarios with additional export possibilities, U.S. coal production will not return to its pre-2010 levels.
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Does ??climate change?? seem like a less serious problem than ??global warming?? to Americans and Europeans? Does describing the costs of climate change mitigation in terms of ??higher taxes?? instead of ??higher prices?? reduce public support for such efforts? In an experiment embedded in an American national survey, respondents were randomly assigned to rate the seriousness of ??global warming,?? ??climate change,?? or ??global climate change.?? Contrary to predictions made by a leading political strategist, the full sample and political Independents perceived ??climate change?? and ??global warming?? to be equally serious. Among Republicans, ??climate change?? was perceived to be more serious than ??global warming,?? whereas the reverse was true among Democrats. A similar experiment embedded in a survey of residents of 31 European countries showed that ??global warming?? and ??climate change?? were perceived to be equally serious problems. And an experiment embedded in an American survey showed that describing the increased costs of climate change mitigation legislation via ??higher taxes?? instead of via ??higher prices?? did not reduce popular support for such legislation, also contradicting a political strategy memo. Thus, word choice may sometimes affect public perceptions of the climate change seriousness or support for mitigation policies, but a single choice of terminology may not influence all people the same way, making strategic language choices difficult to implement. 相似文献
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Subnational and non-governmental actors are expected to provide important contributions to broader climate actions. A consistent and accurate quantification of their GHG emissions is an important prerequisite for the success of such efforts. However, emissions embodied in domestic and international supply chains, that can undermine the effectiveness of climate agreements, add challenges to the quantification of emissions originating from the consumption of goods and services produced elsewhere. We examine emission transfers between the states that have joined the U.S. Climate Alliance (USCA) and others. Our results show that states pledging to curb emissions consistent with the Paris Agreement were responsible for approximately 40% of total U.S. territorial GHG emissions. However, when accounting for transferred emissions through international and interstate supply chains of the products they consume, the share of Alliance states increased to 52.4% of the national total GHG emissions. The consumption-based emissions for some Alliance states, such as Massachusetts and New York, could be more than 1.5 times higher than their production-based emissions. Our detailed sectoral analysis highlights the challenges facing such agreements to extend cooperation in the future for larger joint benefit given the potential for carbon leakage from member states implementing stricter environmental policies that could lead to higher emissions from non-member states. It is critical for these arrangements to pay close attention to transferred emissions. 相似文献
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Increasing evidence suggests that climate change poses direct and indirect threats to national and human security. However, the degree to which such knowledge of the risks informs decision-making remains poorly understood for key security communities, including the U.S. Department of Defense. Here, through document analysis and interviews with climate security researchers and practitioners from the U.S. military community, we evaluate perceptions about and the degree to which (i) these individuals believe climate change is a threat to U.S. national security interests, and (ii) the U.S. Department of Defense integrates climate security science into its decision-making. Our research suggests a complex answer. Public statements and reports indicate U.S. Department of Defense leadership considers climate change a security threat of strategic importance, and most researchers interviewed believe the U.S. Department of Defense prioritizes climate security as a near-term threat. However, evidence of climate security threats is only selectively integrated into planning and decision-making. Interviews suggest several barriers and enablers to evidence-based decision-making within the U.S. Department of Defense. Barriers include mixed beliefs in the near-term urgency of the threat, changing political environments, and insufficient co-production of actionable science across the levels of war, including issues of data collection, sharing, and analysis. Enablers include increased awareness after climate-related impacts, strong leadership support, and knowledge transfer and convening forums. Improved insight into the production and use of climate security knowledge is crucial for the task of safeguarding human and national security in a changing climate. 相似文献
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Sheldon Ungar 《Climatic change》1999,41(2):133-150
This paper asks whether extreme weather events are becoming more discernible. It uses the Vanderbilt University Television News Archives to determine if annual coverage given to heat waves, droughts, hurricanes and floods has increased on the network news between 1968 and 1996. An index of extreme weather events shows a clear trend toward increased coverage, especially since 1988. However, the different types of extreme events do not receive equal coverage: for example, annual peaks for droughts contain about twice as many stories as the peaks for heat waves. The data further reveal that there is no association between coverage of climate change and the overall coverage of extreme events. While extreme events have attracted more stories in the U.S., there has been no increase in the coverage devoted to extreme events in foreign countries. The possible effects of shifts in TV coverage on the public salience and understanding of climate change are discussed. 相似文献
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本讲介绍如何在图上进行A.I.D.的分类筛选预报,它的优点是避免了计算,利用和天气预报中常用的点聚图方法相类似的画法,就可以作出预报。现用一个实例来说明。 考虑长江中下游汉口、九江、芜湖、南京、上海五站平均5—8月降水总量(y),选用了1952—1976年25年资料用五个气象要素作为因子。 因子:x_1是一月0—150°E,45—65°N的纬向指数I_z, x_2是一月份欧洲大型环流型C型天数, x_3是一月份长江流域六站降水量∑R_1月, x_4是一月份长江流域六站温度∑月, 相似文献
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The critical comments to the publications by the authors ofthe present paper that were given in [10] (the publications deal with the possible effects of gravity field inhomogeneities in the atmosphere and ocean) are discussed. In the authors' opinion, some remarks are groundless. At the same time, the authors agree with one of the important remarks that the results of their paper concerning studies of the ocean disturbances are to be reconsidered. 相似文献
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Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus on the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement mitigation strategies, at least in the short term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that international climate policies will be characterized by a high degree of uncertainty over the stringency of the climate objective, and that some countries might delay their participation to global action. What additional economic costs will this delay in the adoption of mitigation measures imply? What would the optimal short-term strategy be given the uncertainty surrounding the climate policy to come? Is there a hedging strategy that decision makers can adopt to cope with delayed action and uncertain targets? This paper addresses these questions by quantifying the economic implications of delaying mitigation action, and by computing the optimal abatement strategy in the presence of uncertainty about a global stabilisation target (which will be agreed upon in future climate negotiations). Results point to short-term inaction as the key determinant for the economic costs of ambitious climate policies. They also indicate that there is an effective hedging strategy that could minimise the cost of climate policy uncertainty over the global stabilisation target: a short-term moderate climate policy would be a good strategy to reduce the costs of delayed action and to cope with uncertainty about the outcome of future climate negotiations. By contrast, failing to curb emissions in the short term imposes rapidly increasing additional costs of compliance. 相似文献
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第七讲的方法,如果不是用极差进行分割,而是用变差进行分割,就成为一般书上所说的A.I.D.方法(筛选因子的一个新方法)。实际上,A.I.D.方法仅仅是最优分割法的一种灵活运用。为了能比较清楚地说明这一点,我们就依照一般书上的写法来介绍A.I.D.方法,然后,再说明它与最优分割法的关系。 相似文献
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《大气科学进展》1994,(4)
NO.1The Vertical Transport of Air Pollutants by Convective Clouds Part II:Transport of Soluble Gases and Sensitivity Tests ………………………………………………………………………Kong Fanyou(孔凡铀)(1)The Vertical Transport ofAir Pollutants by Convective Clouds Cloud Systems …·…………………………………………··Part III:Transport Features of Different Kong Fanvou(孔凡铀)and 0h Yu(秦瑜)(1 3)Study on Atmospheric Ozone in East Asia with Satellite Observation …………………………… 相似文献
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《大气科学进展》2002,(6)
Instability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-ENSO RelationsW ang Huijun (3E％) ......................................................................................................... 1-1 1Associations between the Western North Pacific Monsoon and the South China Sea Monsoon LuRiyu (ffiBf\Chan-Su Ryu, and Buwen Dong .................................................................. 12-24Parameterization of Longwave Optical Properties for Water CloudsWangHongqi (fiEJg-t) an… 相似文献
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Oliver Krueger Frauke Feser Lars Bärring Eigil Kaas Torben Schmith Heikki Tuomenvirta Hans von Storch 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(3-4):1127-1128
The main subject of this article is to comment on the issue of storminess trends derived from the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) and from observations in the North Atlantic region written about in Wang et al. (Clim Dyn 40(11–12):2775–2800, 2012). The statement that the 20CR estimates would be consistent with storminess derived from pressure-based proxies does not hold for the time prior to 1950. 相似文献
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二月七日(民国十九年)平旦,奥大利中央气象学及地力学研究院院长,维也纳大学大地物理学教授爱格耐卒於维也纳。一心悸病,而促其寿纪,而当代气象学,丧一硕儒,而德意志气象学者之林,丧一模楷,而故旧朋好,丧一信友。年来爱格耐君,体气日渐颓败,凡有幸得 相似文献
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Giuseppe Feola 《Climatic change》2013,119(3-4):565-574
Climate change is putting Colombian agriculture under significant stress and, if no adaptation is made, the latter will be severely impacted during the next decades. Ramirez-Villegas et al. (2012) set out a government-led, top-down, techno-scientific proposal for a way forward by which Colombian agriculture could adapt to climate change. However, this proposal largely overlooks the root causes of vulnerability of Colombian agriculture, and of smallholders in particular. I discuss some of the hidden assumptions underpinning this proposal and of the arguments employed by Ramirez-Villegas et al., based on existing literature on Colombian agriculture and the wider scientific debate on adaptation to climate change. While technical measures may play an important role in the adaptation of Colombian agriculture to climate change, I question whether these actions alone truly represent priority issues, especially for smallholders. I suggest that by i) looking at vulnerability before adaptation, ii) contextualising climate change as one of multiple exposures, and iii) truly putting smallholders at the centre of adaptation, i.e. to learn about and with them, different and perhaps more urgent priorities for action can be identified. Ultimately, I argue that what is at stake is not only a list of adaptation measures but, more importantly, the scientific approach from which priorities for action are identified. In this respect, I propose that transformative rather than technical fix adaptation represents a better approach for Colombian agriculture and smallholders in particular, in the face of climate change. 相似文献
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