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1.
Study on the Impacts of Climate Change on China's Agriculture 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper measures the economic impacts of climate change on China's agriculture based on the Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture dominated counties, we find that under most climate change scenarios both higher temperature and more precipitation would have an overall positive impact on China's agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Autumn effect is the most positive, but spring effect is the most negative. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the year 2050 shows that the East, the Central part, the South, the northern part of the Northeast, and the Plateau would benefit from climate change, but the Southwest, the Northwest and the southern part of the Northeast may be negatively affected. In the North, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In summary, all of China would benefit from climate change in most scenarios. 相似文献
2.
Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Increased understanding of the substantial threat climate change poses to agriculture has not been met with a similarly improved understanding of how best to respond. Here we examine likely shifts in crop climates in Sub-Saharan Africa under climate change to 2050, and explore the implications for agricultural adaptation, with particular focus on identifying priorities in crop breeding and the conservation of crop genetic resources. We find that for three of Africa's primary cereal crops – maize, millet, and sorghum – expected changes in growing season temperature are considerable and dwarf changes projected for precipitation, with the warmest recent temperatures on average cooler than almost 9 out of 10 expected observations by 2050. For the “novel” crop climates currently unrepresented in each country but likely extant there in 2050, we identify current analogs across the continent. The majority of African countries will have novel climates over at least half of their current crop area by 2050. Of these countries, 75% will have novel climates with analogs in the current climate of at least five other countries, suggesting that international movement of germplasm will be necessary for adaptation. A more troubling set of countries – largely the hotter Sahelian countries – will have climates with few analogs for any crop. Finally, we identify countries, such as Sudan, Cameroon, and Nigeria, whose current crop areas are analogs to many future climates but that are poorly represented in major genebanks – promising locations in which to focus future genetic resource conservation efforts. 相似文献
3.
Migration and climate change are two of the most important challenges the world currently faces. They are connected as climate change may stimulate or hinder migration. One of the sectors strongly affected by climate change is agriculture, which is the source of income for most of the world's poor. Climate change may affect agricultural productivity and hence migration because of its impact on average temperatures and rainfall and because it increases the frequency and intensity of weather shocks. In this paper we use data on 108 countries from 1960 to 2010 to analyze the relationship between weather variations, changes in agricultural productivity and international migration. We find that negative shocks to agricultural productivity caused by climate fluctuations significantly increase emigration from developing countries, an especially strong impact in poor countries but less so in middle income countries. These results are robust to the definitions of the poor country sample, and to several checks and alternative explanations suggested by the literature. Importantly, our results point to a causal interpretation of the agricultural channel to explain the climate change-migration nexus. 相似文献
4.
Katrin Rehdanz 《Climatic change》2006,74(4):413-434
This study investigates the amenity value of climate to British households. By using the hedonic price approach, the marginal
willingness to pay for small changes in climate variables is derived. Various indices of temperature and precipitation are
used including means, ranges, extremes and January and July averages.
We specify one hedonic regression including information on house prices and wage data for 755 Posttowns and found the model
containing January and July averages of temperature and precipitation most appropriate. The estimates suggest that British
people would typically prefer higher temperatures in January. Increased precipitation in January is likely to reduce welfare.
Changes in temperature and precipitation in July are not significant. Limited global warming, with a more pronounced effect
of temperature increases compared to higher precipitation levels during winter months, might thus benefit British households. 相似文献
5.
W. N. Smith B. B. Grant R. L. Desjardins B. Qian J. Hutchinson S. Gameda 《Climatic change》2009,93(3-4):319-333
Under the threat of global warming it is important to determine the impact that future changes in climate may have on the environment and to what extent any adverse effects can be mitigated. In this study we assessed the impact that climate change scenarios may have on soil carbon stocks in Canada and examined the potential for agricultural management practices to improve or maintain soil quality. Historical weather data from 1951 to 2001 indicated that semi-arid soils in western Canada have become warmer and dryer and air temperatures have increased during the spring and winter months. Results from the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM1,2) under two climate change forcing scenarios also indicated that future temperatures would increase more in the spring and winter. Precipitation increased significantly under the IPCC IS92a scenario and agreed with historical trends in eastern Canada whereas the IPCC SRES B2 scenario indicated very little change in precipitation and better matched historical trends in western Canada. The Century model was used to examine the influence of climate change on agricultural soil carbon (C) stocks in Canada. Relative to simulations using historical weather data, model results under the SRES B2 climate scenario indicated that agricultural soils would lose 160 Tg of carbon by 2099 and under the IS92a scenario would lose 53 Tg C. Carbon was still lost from soils in humid climatic regions even though C inputs from crops increased by 10–13%. Carbon factors associated with changes in management practices were also estimated under both climate change scenarios. There was little difference in factors associated with conversion from conventional to no-till agriculture, while carbon factors associated with the conversion of annual crops to perennial grass were lower than for historical data in semi-arid soils because water stress hampered crop production but were higher in humid soils. 相似文献
6.
Severe weather has important social and economic impacts. Some studies have indicated that its intensity may increase over this century as a consequence of climate change induced by greenhouse gases. This study aims to investigate the possibility of a future increase in deep convective events over North America resulting from the evolution of favourable atmospheric conditions. Our analysis is based on an ensemble of projections performed using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) at 45?km resolution, driven by different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and reanalyses. We concentrate our study on Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), vertical wind shear, and convective precipitation. Based on two different approaches to linking atmospheric conditions and severe weather, we find that the number of extreme weather events is expected to increase during the twenty-first century. In agreement with other studies on this subject, we find that CAPE is expected to increase, whereas wind shear is expected to decrease slightly. Through the analysis of the CRCM's convective precipitation outputs, we show that severe convective liquid precipitation events may become both more frequent and slightly more intense. Sensitivity experiments show that results depend on the driving GCM although they confirm the general conclusions. Additional experiments conducted with reduced humidity input at the lateral boundaries show the significant role that the humidity level of the driving GCMs has on simulated extreme regional events. At the regional level results are, in general, consistent with those found at the continental scale, but large inter-regional variations exist. 相似文献
7.
气候变暖对河西走廊中部农业的影响 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
选取河西走廊中部张掖市6县（区）1961～2006年日平均气温、日最低气温、年降水资料。计算历年各地气温、积温、无霜冻期和农业气候生产力,分析河西走廊中部气候变暖对农业生产的影响。结果表明：20世纪80年代末期以来,河西走廊中部气温呈持续升高趋势,1987～2006年的平均气温明显增高,且冬季升温幅度最为显著,秋季次之,春、夏季升温幅度较小;≥0℃和≥10℃积温增多,无霜冻期延长,气候生产力增加。80年代后期气候明显变暖,喜温作物面积扩大,复种指数提高,有利于冬季大棚蔬菜等设施农业的生产;干旱发生频率加大,病虫越冬存活率上升,导致农业生产成本增加。 相似文献
8.
Based on a Ricardian analysis accounting for spatial autocorrelation and relying on recent climate change forecasts at a low spatial scale, this study assesses the impact of climate change on German agriculture. Given the limited availability of data (e.g., the unknown average soil quality at the district level), a spatial error model is used in order to obtain unbiased marginal effects. The Ricardian analysis is performed using data from the 1999 agricultural census along with data from the network of German weather observation stations. The cross-sectional analysis yields an increase of land rent along with both a rising mean temperature and a declining spring precipitation, except for in the Eastern part of the country. The subsequent simulation of local land rent changes under three different IPCC scenarios is done by entering into the estimated regression equations spatially processed data averages for the period between 2011 and 2040 from the regional climate model REMO. The resulting expected benefits arising from climate change are represented in maps containing the 439 German districts; the calculated overall rent increase corresponds to approximately 5–6% of net German agricultural income. However, in the long run, when temperature and precipitation changes will be more severe than those simulated for 2011–2040, income losses for German agriculture cannot be excluded. 相似文献
9.
“一带一路”沿线国家受气候变化影响严重,亟需从其他国家转移适当的适应气候变化技术。技术需求评估是有效开展技术转移的必要前提。本研究利用“一带一路”沿线国家完成提交给《联合国气候变化框架公约》的技术需求评估（TNA）报告,在合作专利分类（CPC）框架下建立适应优先技术需求数据库,并根据技术需求的提及次数、技术需求的国家数目、技术需求的GDP覆盖范围以及技术惠及人口4个指标,分别从技术和地区两个角度对“一带一路”沿线国家的适应技术需求开展评估。结果发现：一方面,农林牧副渔生产中的适应技术（Y02A-40),集水、节水与高效利用水的技术（Y02A-20),沿海地区与江河流域的适应技术（Y02A-10）与对适应气候变化有间接贡献的技术（Y02A-90）这4方面的适应技术是“一带一路”沿线国家普遍关切的技术需求。另一方面,不同地区的“一带一路”沿线国家因其特有的地理区位和社会经济情况不同而产生特殊的适应技术需求。大洋洲、拉丁美洲与加勒比地区以及亚洲地区部分国家由于国内基础设施受气候变化影响十分严重,提出了保护和改造基础设施建设的技术（Y02A-30）需求;受气候变化影响,高温和降水加剧了疾病在空气和水体的传播,因此亚洲地区,大洋洲、拉丁美洲与加勒比地区特别提出了应对极端天气、保护人类健康的技术（Y02A-50）需求。为促进“一带一路”沿线国家开展有效技术转移,提高应对气候变化能力,应加大对气候适应技术研发投入,以技术接受国的技术需求为基础,并高效利用现有的“一带一路”技术转移中心网络,开展技术转移活动。 相似文献
10.
Christopher R. Bryant Barry Smit Michael Brklacich Thomas R. Johnston John Smithers Quentin Chjotti Bhawan Singh 《Climatic change》2000,45(1):181-201
The effects of climatic variability and change on Canadian agriculture have become an important research field since the early 1980s. In this paper, we seek to synthesize this research, focusing on agricultural adaptation, a purposeful proactive or reactive response to changes associated with climate, and influenced by many factors. A distinctive feature of methods used in research on adaptation in Canadian agriculture is the focus on the important role of human agency. Many individual farmers perceive they are well adapted to climate, because of their extensive 'technological' tool-kit, giving them confidence in dealing with climatic change. In many regions, little concern is expressed over climatic change, except where there are particular types of climatic vulnerability. Farmers respond to biophysical factors, including climate, as they interact with a complex of human factors. Several of these, notably institutional and political ones, have tended to diminish the farm-level risks stemming from climatic variability and change, but may well increase the long term vulnerability of Canadian agriculture. Notwithstanding the technological and management adaptation measures available to producers, Canadian agriculture remains vulnerable to climatic variability and to climate change. 相似文献
11.
David R. Easterling Henry F. Diaz Arthur V. Douglas William D. Hogg Kenneth E. Kunkel Jeffry C. Rogers Jaime F. Wilkinson 《Climatic change》1999,42(1):285-308
In this paper we discuss data available from Argentina, Mexico, the United States and Canada that are suitable for the analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events. We also discuss some of the problems of homogeneity and quality control that can potentially affect the observation of extreme values. It is clear that even in countries like the United States and Canada that have a potentially rich source of climate data there are still problems in obtaining homogeneous data necessary to perform thorough studies of time varying changes in extreme events. These types of problems may be compounded if data are needed from countries that do not have a tradition of maintaining large climate archives or observing networks.We also provide two examples of analyses that can be performed with these types of data: (1) the development of climate extremes indices for Canada, and (2) analyses of freezing events for Florida and the effect on the citrus industry. The Canadian example provides a good basis for countries to take indices developed for one country or region and through minor modifications make the index relevant to their own needs. The analysis of freezing events in Florida is a timely example of how extreme events have both ecological and societal impact. 相似文献
12.
Cambodia is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts such as floods and droughts. Study of future climate change and drought conditions in the upper Siem Reap River catchment is vital because this river plays a crucial role in maintaining the Angkor Temple Complex and livelihood of the local population since 12th century. The resolution of climate data from Global Circulation Models (GCM) is too coarse to employ effectively at the watershed scale, and therefore downscaling of the dataset is required. Artificial neural network (ANN) and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) models were applied in this study to downscale precipitation and temperatures from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios) from Global Climate Model data of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) on a daily and monthly basis. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were adopted to develop criteria for dry and wet conditions in the catchment. Trend detection of climate parameters and drought indices were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test. It was observed that the ANN and SDSM models performed well in downscaling monthly precipitation and temperature, as well as daily temperature, but not daily precipitation. Every scenario indicated that there would be significant warming and decreasing precipitation which contribute to mild drought. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision makers since climate change may potentially impact future water supply of the Angkor Temple Complex (a World Heritage Site). 相似文献
13.
Eivind Uleberg Inger Hanssen-Bauer Bob van Oort Sigridur Dalmannsdottir 《Climatic change》2014,122(1-2):27-39
This study evaluates the effects of climate change on agriculture in Northern Norway. It is based on downscaled climate projections for six different municipalities combined with interviews with farmers, advisors and administrative personnel in these municipalities. The projections document large climatic differences both between and within the different municipalities. The main predicted climatic changes include increasing temperatures and precipitation as well as increased frequency of certain types of extreme weather events. Despite challenges such as unstable winters, increased autumn precipitation and possibly more weeds and diseases, a prolongation of the current short growth season together with higher growth temperatures can give new opportunities for agriculture here. The impacts are expected to differ both within and between municipalities and will require tailored adaptive strategies. Most of these however should pose no difficulty implementing, having an agronomical basis that farmers are accustomed to cope with. 相似文献
14.
Using 40 rounds of Demographic and Health Survey data from 18 sub-Saharan African countries, linked to high-resolution historical climate records, we analyze the relationship between climatic variability and fertility goals among reproductive-aged women. We find that, overall, women exposed to above-average temperatures report lower ideal family size and reduced probability of desiring a first or additional child. Results indicate that exposure to precipitation anomalies during the 12 months prior to the DHS survey is associated with a significant reduction in ideal family size, but longer 60-month spells of above-average precipitation are associated with increases in ideal family size. Effects of unusual precipitation are null for women’s fertility preferences at both shorter- and longer-term periods. Additional analyses show that this association varies across sub-populations defined by parity, education, residence in rural or urban areas, and region. In general, our results suggest that women exposed to adverse environmental conditions—namely abnormally hot or dry spells—will reduce their ideal family size and their preferences for having another child. In some cases, however, fertility goals may also decline during spells of favorable environmental conditions, possibly due to increased labor demands among women and their spouses. One implication of the observed links between climate variability and reproductive goals is that policymakers concerned with climate adaptation should work to ensure women have access to the necessary family planning resources needed to realize dynamic reproductive goals in a changing climate. 相似文献
15.
Climate change impacts on global agriculture 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Alvaro Calzadilla Katrin Rehdanz Richard Betts Pete Falloon Andy Wiltshire Richard S. J. Tol 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):357-374
Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land will change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity provide a false appreciation of the nature of changes likely to occur. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. No matter which SRES scenario is preferred, we find that the expected losses in welfare are significant. These losses are slightly larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that national welfare is influenced both by regional climate change and climate-induced changes in competitiveness. 相似文献
16.
Mass migration is one of the most concerning potential outcomes of global climate change. Recent research into environmentally induced migration suggests that relationship is much more complicated than originally posited by the ‘environmental refugee’ hypothesis. Climate change is likely to increase migration in some cases and reduce it in others, and these movements will more often be temporary and short term than permanent and long term. However, few large-sample studies have examined the evolution of temporary migration under changing environmental conditions. To address this gap, we measure the extent to which temperature, precipitation, and flooding can predict temporary migration in Matlab, Bangladesh. Our analysis incorporates high-frequency demographic surveillance data, a discrete time event history approach, and a range of sociodemographic and contextual controls. This approach reveals that temporary migration declines immediately after flooding but quickly returns to normal. In contrast, high temperatures have sustained positive effects on temporary migration that persist over one to two year periods, while migrations decrease during extended periods of extreme precipitation. Building on previous studies of long-term migration, these results challenge the common assumption that flooding, precipitation extremes, and high temperatures will consistently increase temporary migration. Instead, our results are consistent with a livelihoods interpretation in which long-standing household livelihood strategies (both temporary migration and agriculture) are disrupted by environmental variability. 相似文献
17.
Zhangjiakou is an important wind power base in Hebei Province, China. The impact of its wind farms on the local climate is controversial. Based on long-term meteorological data from 1981 to 2018, we investigated the effects of the Shangyi Wind Farm (SWF) in Zhangjiakou on air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and precipitation using the anomaly or ratio method between the impacted weather station and the non-impacted background weather station. The influence of the SWF on land surface temperature (LST) and evapotranspiration (ET) using MODIS satellite data from 2003 to 2018 was also explored. The results showed that the SWF had an atmospheric warming effect at night especially in summer and autumn (up to 0.95°C). The daytime air temperature changes were marginal, and their signs were varying depending on the season. The annual mean wind speed decreased by 6％, mainly noted in spring and winter (up to 14％). The precipitation and relative humidity were not affected by the SWF. There was no increase in LST in the SWF perhaps due to the increased vegetation coverage unrelated to the wind farms, which canceled out the wind farm-induced land surface warming and also resulted in an increase in ET. The results showed that the impact of wind farms on the local climate was significant, while their impact on the regional climate was slight. 相似文献
18.
Linkages between hydroclimate variability and economic development are often theorized to be present only in developing economies. Using spatially small-scaled data from multiple decades for European regions, we examine the relationship between precipitation anomalies and economic performance in highly developed economic systems. We conduct a disaggregated empirical analysis to mitigate the bias potentially arising from spatial aggregation because precipitation realizations tend to vary drastically within larger sized economic units. We modify original precipitation indices to capture the dynamic expectation formation of economic agents about climate conditions to measure deviations from these anticipated environmental states. Using panel model regressions in a quasi-experimental research design, we analyse whether deviations from average growth rates of aggregated economic output are potentially non-linearly related to the magnitude of precipitation deviations from the anticipated climate norm within regions, after accounting for any shocks common to all regions. We find that precipitation deviations that exceed critical thresholds (intermediate anomalies) for both unusually dry and unusually wet years reduce regional growth rates. The adverse impacts are more pronounced for overly dry periods. Importantly, the relationship between economic growth and precipitation anomalies is not generalizable across all regions. Natural geographical circumstances such as prevailing climatic conditions (“first-nature” geographies) and human-made socio-economic factors such as sector structure and income level (“second-nature” geographies) moderate the anomaly response. The empirical findings substantiate the necessity to incorporate precipitation variability into the assessment of economic costs of climate change; not only in developing countries or agricultural societies but also in highly developed economic systems. Moreover, the empirical results have important implications for policy makers as uneven effect sizes at the subnational level suggest that policy measures should be targeted in space and coordinated between national and regional levels of government. 相似文献
19.
In this paper, we examine for a sample of Los Angeles residents their willingness to pay to prevent significant climate change. We employ a fractional factorial design in which various climate change scenarios differing in ways consistent with existing variation in climate are presented to respondents. These are contrasted to respondents' current climate before willingness to pay is elicited. Thus, the focus is on climate change as it may be experienced locally. We also try to determine the kinds of value that are driving respondents' concerns. Among the key findings are that for these respondents, climate change leading to warmer local temperatures is a greater worry than climate change leading to colder local temperatures. In addition, climate change leading to less precipitation locally is of more concern that climate change leading to more precipitation locally. Finally, use value may be the most important kind of value, but a more cautious interpretation is that respondents are not yet able to clearly distinguish between different climate change consequences. 相似文献
20.
Climate change poses a challenge to countries across the world, with news media being an important source of information on the issue. To understand how and how much news media cover climate change, this study compares coverage in ten countries from the Global North and the Global South between 2006 and 2018 (N = 71,674). Based on a panel analysis, we illustrate that news media attention varies across countries and is often associated with political, scientific, and (partly) societal focusing events. Based on an automated content analysis, we also find that news media do not only cover ecological changes or climate science, but that they focus predominantly on the societal dimension of climate change: They emphasize how humans are aware of, affected by, battle, or cause climate change. Overall, the study illustrates important differences between the Global North and the Global South. While countries from the Global North cover climate change more frequently, countries from the Global South focus more on its challenges and implications for society at large, i.e., the societal dimension of climate change. 相似文献