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1.
Based on reconstructions of precipitation events from the rain and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty (1736–1911),the drought/flood index data mainly derived from Chinese local gazettes from 1736–2000, and the observational data gathered since 1951,the spatial patterns of monsoon rainbands are analyzed at different time scales.Findings indicate that monsoon rainfall in northern China and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River have significant inter-annual(e.g.,5–7-yr and 2–4-yr)as well as inter-de... 相似文献
2.
Chang-Hoi Ho Woosuk Choi Jinwon Kim Maeng-Ki Kim Hee-Dong Yoo 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(4):395-403
A number of studies in the past two decades have attempted to find the relationship between the precipitation in Korea and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on various time scales. Comprehensive analyses of station precipitation data in Korea for the 61-year period, 1954-2014, in this study show that the effects of ENSO on the seasonal precipitation in Korea are practically negligible. The correlation between summer precipitation and ENSO is insignificant regardless of the intensity, type (e.g., eastern-Pacific or central-Pacific), and stage (e.g., developing, mature, or decaying) of ENSO. Somewhat meaningful correlation between ENSO and precipitation in Korea occurs only in the ENSO-developing fall. Because summer rainfall accounts for over half of the annual total and fall is a dry season in Korea, the overall effects of ENSO on precipitation in Korea are practically nonexistent. 相似文献
3.
基于2000—2014年4—10月西藏气象站遥感干旱指数 (条件植被指数,VCI) 和气象干旱指数 (标准降水指数,SPI) 之间的相关性,评估植被对气象干旱的响应特征,通过分析气候环境要素对响应特征的影响并归纳相应规则,获取西藏地区植被对气象干旱有明显响应的区域分布。结果显示:VCI与12周时间尺度的SPI具有较强相关性,说明西藏地区植被生长对降水的响应大约滞后12周;植被对气象干旱响应不敏感的原因主要包括气候极度干燥或极度湿润、土地覆盖类型为森林、年平均归一化植被指数 (NDVI) 值过小、多年NDVI变化标准差过小、有降水之外的其他水源补给等;基于对区域气候环境要素特征的分析,可以得出西藏中部偏南地区植被对气象干旱有明显响应,主要包括拉萨地区、山南地区北部、日喀则地区东部、那曲地区中部和西南部、阿里地区的东南部。 相似文献
4.
The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions may trigger threshold responses of the climate system. One relevant example of such
a potential threshold response is a shutdown of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Numerous studies
have analyzed the problem of early MOC change detection (i.e., detection before the forcing has committed the system to a
threshold response). Here we analyze the early MOC prediction problem. To this end, we virtually deploy an MOC observation
system into a simple model that mimics potential future MOC responses and analyze the timing of confident detection and prediction.
Our analysis suggests that a confident prediction of a potential threshold response can require century time scales, considerably
longer that the time required for confident detection. The signal enabling early prediction of an approaching MOC threshold
in our model study is associated with the rate at which the MOC intensity decreases for a given forcing. A faster MOC weakening
implies a higher MOC sensitivity to forcing. An MOC sensitivity exceeding a critical level results in a threshold response.
Determining whether an observed MOC trend in our model differs in a statistically significant way from an unforced scenario
(the detection problem) imposes lower requirements on an observation system than the determination whether the MOC will shut
down in the future (the prediction problem). As a result, the virtual observation systems designed in our model for early
detection of MOC changes might well fail at the task of early and confident prediction. Transferring this conclusion to the
real world requires a considerably refined MOC model, as well as a more complete consideration of relevant observational constraints. 相似文献
5.
Seagrass meadows are natural carbon storage hotspots at risk from global change threats, and their loss can result in the remineralization of soil carbon stocks and CO2 emissions fueling climate change. Here we used expert elicitation and empirical evidence to assess the risk of CO2 emissions from seagrass soils caused by multiple human-induced, biological and climate change threats. Judgments from 41 experts were synthesized into a seagrass CO2 emission risk score based on vulnerability factors (i.e., spatial scale, frequency, magnitude, resistance and recovery) to seagrass soil organic carbon stocks. Experts perceived that climate change threats (e.g., gradual ocean warming and increased storminess) have the highest risk for CO2 emissions at global spatial scales, while direct threats (i.e., dredging and building of a marina or jetty) have the largest CO2 emission risks at local spatial scales. A review of existing peer-reviewed literature showed a scarcity of studies assessing CO2 emissions following seagrass disturbance, but the limited empirical evidence partly confirmed the opinion of experts. The literature review indicated that direct and long-term disturbances have the greatest negative impact on soil carbon stocks per unit area, highlighting that immediate management actions after disturbances to recover the seagrass canopy can significantly reduce soil CO2 emissions. We conclude that further empirical evidence assessing global change threats on the seagrass carbon sink capacity is required to aid broader uptake of seagrass into blue carbon policy frameworks. The preliminary findings from this study can be used to estimate the potential risk of CO2 emissions from seagrass habitats under threat and guide nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation. 相似文献
6.
Observations of temperature, pressure and humidity have been made from an aircraft beneath cumulus clouds which formed over extensive flat country. In fair weather over land, cumulus cloud base is generally above the average top of the well-mixed convection layer so that penetrative convection is necessary to initiate cloud formation. The convective layer does not evolve and deepen uniformly over large areas (say greater than 100-km radius). Rather, it develops a patchy structure at 1–10 km scales. Such patches, close beneath cloud base, have thermodynamic properties very like those of the convection layer and in such regions that layer effectively extends right up to cloud base. Meso-scale effects (e.g., 50 km) seem to be important in determining where clear and cloudy areas occur, and although it appears reasonable to attribute this to local dynamic effects (e.g., subsidence), it is not possible to eliminate other possibilities on the basis of the present data. 相似文献
7.
Potential predictability of the Asian summer monsoon on monthly and seasonal time scales 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Summary ¶The potential predictability of the monthly and seasonal means during the Northern Hemisphere summer and winter is studied by estimating the signal-to-noise ratio. Based on 33 years of daily low-level wind observations and 24 years of satellite observations of outgoing long wave radiation, the predictability of the Asian summer monsoon region is contrasted with that over other tropical regions. A method of separating the contributions from slowly varying boundary forcing and internal dynamics (e.g., intraseasonal oscillations) that determine the predictability of the monthly mean tropical climate is proposed. We show that the Indian monsoon climate is only marginally predictable in monthly time scales as the contribution of the boundary forcing in this region is relatively low and that of the internal dynamics is relatively large. It is shown that excluding the Indian monsoon region, the predictable region is larger and predictability is higher in the tropics during northern summer. Even though the boundary forced variance is large during northern winter, the predictable region is smaller as the internal variance is larger and covers a larger region during northern winter (due to stronger intraseasonal activity). Consistent with the estimates of predictability of monthly means, estimates of potential predictability on seasonal time scales also indicate that predictability of seasonal mean Indian monsoon is limited.Received December 6, 2002; accepted March 16, 2003
Published online: June 12, 2003 相似文献
8.
Summary The problem of along-stream ageostrophic frontogenesis is studied by employing a numerical model at meso-alpha and meso-beta scales in simulations of the downstream circulations over the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. Three-dimensional real data simulations at these two scales of motion are used to diagnose the transition from semigeostrophic cross-stream frontogenesis accompanying a propagating baroclinic upper-level jet streak to midtropospheric along-stream ageostrophic frontogenesis. This along-stream ageostrophic frontogenesis results from the perturbation of the jet streak by the Rocky Mountain range. The case study represents an example of internal wave dynamics which are forced by the drag of the Rocky Mountains on a strong jet streak in the presence of a low-level inversion.The simulation results indicate that, unlike semi-geostrophic frontogenesis, a front (which is alligned perpendicular to the axis of the jet stream) may form when significant adiabatic heating occurs within a stratified shear flow over horizontal length scales shorter than the Rossby radius of deformation. The mechanism responsible for the frontogenesis is the growth of the divergent along-stream wind velocity component which becomes coupled to the front's along-stream pressure gradient force. This nonlinear interaction produces hydrostatic mesoscale frontogenesis as follows: 1) vertical wind shear in the along-stream plane strengthens resulting in the increasingly nonuniform vertical variation of horizontal temperature advection as the ageostrophic wind component grows in magnitude downstream of the meso-scale terrain-induced adiabatic heating, 2) increasing along-stream differential vertical motions (i.e., along-stream thermally indirect circulation with warm air sinking to the west and cold air rising to the east) tilt the vertical gradient of isentropes into the horizontal as the vertical temperature gradient increases due to the previous process in proximity to horizontal gradients in the along-stream component of the ageostrophic wind, 3) as tilting motions act to increase the along-stream horizontal temperature gradient, the along-stream confluence acts to nonuniformly increase the along-stream frontal temperature gradient which increases the along-stream pressure gradient force resulting in further accelerations, ageostrophy, and frontal steepening as part of a scale contraction process.The evolution of the aforementioned processes results in the three-dimensional hydrostatic frontogenesis accompanying the overturning of isentropic surfaces. These adjustments act to turn air parcels to the right of the southwesterly geostrophic wind vector at successively lower atmospheric levels as the scale contraction continues. This simulated along-stream front is verified from diagnostic analysis of the profiler-derived temperature and wind fields.With 17 Figures 相似文献
9.
区域气候模拟研究及其应用进展 总被引：10，自引：3，他引：7
区域气候模拟研究在过去十几年里取得了显著的进步。经过广泛的发展和不断的检验,区域气候模式现在已经成为气候研究和业务预报的重要工具。目前已经发表了很多令人鼓舞的结果,其中包括过去极端气候事件的模拟,当前气候发展演变和未来气候变化的预测,特别是对月和季节尺度气候的模拟与预测。通过对高分辨率和动力连续的区域气候模式结果的分析,人们对于周-季节时间尺度的各种物理过程,包括陆面和水文过程、边界层、云和降水、云-辐射相互作用的认识也在不断的深入。然而,区域气候是多尺度扰动(如中尺度、天气尺度、行星尺度扰动)和多圈层系统(如大气圈、生物圈、水圈、冰雪圈、陆面)相互作用的结果,同时物理过程本身具有不确定性,人们对一些复杂的物理过程,特别是土壤湿度作用以及云-气候反馈过程也缺乏深刻的理解,因此该领域的研究还面临着很多挑战。作者重点总结并评述了区域气候模式对现在和未来区域气候模拟、极端天气和气候事件模拟、物理过程研究、短期气候预测几方面应用的研究进展,最后讨论了区域气候模式发展在上述各方面,特别是周-次季节时间尺度区域天气和气候的模拟与预测所面临的挑战和应用前景。 相似文献
10.
Barry Saltzman 《Climate Dynamics》1990,5(2):67-78
The development of a theory of the evolution of the climate of the earth over millions of years can be subdivided into three fundamental, nested, problems: Firstly, to establish by equilibrium climate models (e.g., general circulation models) the diagnostic relations, valid at any time, between the fast-response climate variables (i.e., the weather statistics) and both the prescribed external radiative forcing and the prescribed distribution of the slow-response variables (e.g., the ice sheets and shelves, the deep ocean state, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration). Secondly, to construct, by an essentially inductive process, a model of the time-dependent evolution of the slow-response climatic variables over time scales longer than the damping times of these variables but shorter than the time scale of ultra-slow tectonic and astronomical changes in the boundary conditions (e.g., altered geography and elevation of the continents, slow outgassing and weathering and and solar radiative output). Thirdly, to determine the nature of these ultra-slow processes and their effects on the evolution of the equilibrium state of the climatic system about which the previously mentioned time-dependent variations occur. In this review we discuss the basis for this resolution, and give a broad overview of the contributions that have been made thus far in each area, emphasizing the work of the Yale climate group.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil 相似文献
11.
Maria Dolores Frías Roberto Mínguez Jose Manuel Gutiérrez Fernando J. Méndez 《Climatic change》2012,113(2):371-392
This paper analyzes changes of maximum temperatures in Europe, which are evaluated using two state-of-the-art regional climate models from the EU ENSEMBLES project. Extremes are expressed in terms of return values using a time-dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) model fitted to monthly maxima. Unlike the standard GEV method, this approach allows analyzing return periods at different time scales (monthly, seasonal, annual, etc). The study focuses on the end of the 20th century (1961?C2000), used as a calibration/validation period, and assesses the changes projected for the period 2061?C2100 considering the A1B emission scenario. The performance of the regional models is evaluated for each season of the calibration period against the high-resolution gridded E-OBS dataset, showing a similar South-North gradient with larger values over the Mediterranean basin. The inter-RCM changes in the bias pattern with respect to the E-OBS are larger than the bias resulting from a change in the boundary conditions from ERA-40 to ECHAM5 20c3m. The maximum temperature response to increased green house gases, as projected by the A1B scenario, is consistent for both RCMs. Under that scenario, results indicate that the increments for extremes (e.g. 40-year return values) will be two or three times higher than those for the mean seasonal temperatures, particularly during Spring and Summer in Southern Europe. 相似文献
12.
On the Generalized Ertel--Rossby Invariant 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A new invariant called the generalized Ertel-Rossby invariant(GER) was developed in this study.The new invariant is given by the dot product of the generalized vorticity and the generalized velocity.The generalized vorticity is the absolute vorticity minus the cross-product of the gradient of Lagrangian-time integrated temperature and the gradient of entropy.The generalized velocity is the absolute velocity minus the sum of the gradient of Lagrangian-time integrated kinetic potential and the Lagrangian-time integrated temperature multiplied by the gradient of entropy.In addition to the traditional potential vorticity,the GER invariant may provide another useful tool to study the atmospheric dynamic processes for weather phenomena ranging from large scales to small scales. 相似文献
13.
Observations are presented which show a strong correlation between low-level wind behaviour (e.g., rotation near the surface) and the passage of mesoscale pressure systems. The latter are associated with frontal transition zones, are dominated by a pressure-jump line and a mesoscale high pressure area, and produce locally large horizontal pressure gradients. The wind observations are simulated by specifying a time sequence of perturbation pressure gradient and subsequently solving the vertically-integrated momentum equations with appropriate initial conditions. Very good agreement is found between observed and calculated winds; in particular, (i) a 360 ° rotation in wind on passage of the mesoscale high; (ii) wind-shift lines produced dynamically by the pressure-jump line; (iii) rapid linear increase in wind speed on passage of the pressure jump. 相似文献
14.
Variability of rainfall from tropical cyclones in the eastern USA and its association to the AMO and ENSO 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ricardo C. Nogueira Barry D. Keim David P. Brown Kevin D. Robbins 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,112(1-2):273-283
Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall along the eastern USA exhibits a high degree of variability with the potential to produce precipitation amounts in excess of 100 % of the annual mean at locations ranging from the immediate coastline to hundreds of kilometers inland. However, the spatiotemporal distribution of TC rainfall variability has not yet been fully characterized for this region, particularly with regard to large-scale climate teleconnections (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO)). The objectives of this study are to (1) assess temporal variability and trends in TC rainfall since 1960, and (2) characterize the spatial variability of TC rainfall during varying AMO and ENSO regimes. Kendall tau-b analysis highlighted the presence of statistically significant positive trends in TC rainfall at a number of locations. Principal components analysis revealed that AMO exhibited significant linkages to TC rainfall in northern New England as well as along the US Gulf Coast, while ENSO was most strongly linked to TC variability in Texas. Results illustrate the varied nature of TC rainfall across the eastern USA and the complex linkages to large-scale climate mechanisms at interannual and decadal time scales. 相似文献
15.
16.
Fossil energy subsidies create a series of distortions that often have negative environmental and social consequences. Yet, since subsidies confer salient and tangible benefits in the form of cheaper prices, citizens are very resistant to reforms. This research investigates how to best communicate the removal of fossil subsidies using a highly powered, pre-registered study with 5,498 participants across 11 countries in Latin America. We assessed baseline knowledge and views about subsidies and randomly assigned participants to one of eight experimental conditions varying in both the aspects emphasized (e.g., environment, distributive justice, prospective fiscal benefits) and the form of providing the message (i.e., complete or summarized information). Our results show that citizens (a) display a generalized lack of knowledge about the existence of energy subsidies, (b) are very unwilling to remove these subsidies once they know of their existence, and (c) would like subsidies to actually increase rather than decrease. Despite these results, our experiment revealed that communication strategies can be tailored to increase the acceptance of energy reforms. Specifically, emphasizing the negative consequences of subsidies (e.g., overconsumption of natural resources and unfair allocation of resources to the wealthy) is more effective than highlighting the potential benefits to be obtained via their removal (e.g., higher investment in healthcare, education, public safety, or welfare programs). Further, providing complete information is more effective than offering summarized pieces of information. These findings provide guidance on how to effectively communicate energy reforms. 相似文献
17.
Communities living in the grasslands of present day Inner Mongolia have experienced dramatic social, economic and ecological changes over the past millennium. More recently, these grasslands have undergone widespread degradation, raising concern for securing local herders' livelihoods. To understand these changes in ecological and welfare outcomes over long time scales, we define five broad periods of relative institutional stability over the past millennium, characterize social-ecological system during each period, and then assess major changes between these periods. Looking at changes in institutional contexts helps explain some of our outcomes of interest. We find that while much attention has been given to the change in grassland lease structures in China, the role of market integration and buffers against historically natural constraints on livestock production (e.g., protection from the winter months) have decoupled formerly tight local social-ecological links. This decoupling, along with weak land tenure security due to a complex and volatile policy landscape, suppresses local incentives for grassland conservation. 相似文献
18.
Summary A general circulation model is used to study the response of the atmosphere to an idealised sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern (warm throughout the southern midlatitudes, cool in the tropics) in the South Indian Ocean region. The anomaly imposed on monthly SST climatology captures the essence of patterns observed in the South Indian Ocean during both ENSO events and multidecadal epochs, and facilitates diagnosis of the model response. A previous study with this anomaly imposed in the model examined differences in the response between that on the seasonal scale (favours enhancement of the original SST anomaly) and that on the decadal scale (favours damping of the anomaly). The current study extends that work firstly by comparing the response on the intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual scales, and secondly, by assessing the changes in the circulation and rainfall over the adjoining African landmass.It is found that the atmospheric response is favourable for enhancement of the original SST anomaly on scales up to, and including, annual. However, as the scale becomes interannual (i.e., 15–21 months after imposition of the anomaly), the model response suggests that damping of the original SST anomaly becomes likely. Compared to the shorter scale response, the perturbation pressure and wind distribution on the interannual scale is shifted poleward, and is more reminiscent of the decadal response. Winds are now stronger over the warm anomaly in the southern midlatitudes suggesting enhanced surface fluxes, upper ocean mixing, and consequently, a damping of the anomaly.Examination of the circulation and rainfall patterns indicates that there are significant anomalies over large parts of southern Africa during the spring, summer and autumn seasons for both short (intraseasonal to interannual) and decadal scales. It appears that rainfall anomalies are associated with changes in the advection of moist tropical air from the Indian Ocean and its related convergence over southern Africa. Over eastern equatorial Africa, the austral autumn season (the main wet season) showed rainfall increases on all time scales, while parts of central to eastern subtropical southern Africa were dry. The signals during summer were more varied. Spring showed generally dry conditions over the eastern half of southern Africa on both short and decadal time scales, with wet areas confined to the west. In all cases, the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies accumulated over a 90 day season were of the order of 90–180 mm, and therefore represent a significant fraction of the annual total of many areas. It appears that relatively modest SST anomalies in the South Indian Ocean can lead to sizeable rainfall anomalies in the model. Although precipitation in general circulation models tends to be less accurately simulated than many other variables, the model results, together with previous observational work, emphasize the need for ongoing monitoring of SST in this region.With 14 Figures 相似文献
19.
Nobuhisa Yasuda 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1988,43(3):209-221
Diurnal variations of the vertical profiles of wind and temperature have been surveyed, and the diffusivity and the dimensionless gradient function in the atmospheric boundary layer have been estimated. Even in the middle of the atmospheric boundary layer (e.g., below a height of 442 m), the vertical wind profile normalized by the surface friction velocity has approximately a universal profile function different from that in the surface boundary layer. Under strong stability conditions, the dimensionless gradient function has a value of about 9. 相似文献
20.
Jianhua LU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(5):707-716
Although the first successful numerical weather prediction(NWP)project led by Charney and von Neumann is widely known,little is known by the international community about the development of NWP during the 1950s in China.Here,a detailed historical perspective on the early NWP experiments in China is provided.The leadership in NWP of the late Professor Chen-Chao Koo,a protége of C.G.Rossby at the University of Stockholm during the late 1940s and a key leader of modern meteorology(particularly of atmospheric dynamics and physics)in China during the 1950s?70s,is highlighted.The unique contributions to NWP by Koo and his students,such as the ideas of formulating NWP as an“evolution”problem,in which the past data over multiple time steps are utilized,rather than an initial-value problem,and on the cybernetic aspects of atmospheric processes,i.e.,regarding the motion of the atmosphere at various time scales as an optimal control system,are also emphasized. 相似文献