共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 140 毫秒
1.
2.
This paper investigates the contrasts between strong and weak Madden-Julian
Oscillation (MJO) activity over the equatorial western Pacific during winter using the NCEP
reanalysis data. It is shown that the MJO over the equatorial western Pacific in winter shows
significant interannual and interdecadal variabilities. During the winters with strong MJO
activity, an anomalous cyclonic circulation lies east of the Philippines, strong anomalous
easterlies control the equatorial eastern Pacific, and anomalous westerlies extend from the
Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in the lower troposphere, which strengthens the
convergence and convection over the equatorial western Pacific. The moisture convergence in
the lower troposphere is also enhanced over the western Pacific, which is favorable to the
activity of MJO. Eastward propagation is a significant feature of the MJO, though there is
some westward propagation. The space-time spectral power and center period of the MJO are
higher during strong MJO activity winters. The anomalous activity of MJO is closely related to
the sea surface temperature (SST) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). During strong MJO
activity winters, there are positive/negative anomalies at high/low latitudes in both sea
level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height, and the temperature is lower over the central
part of the Chinese mainland, which indicates a strong EAWM. China experiences more rainfall
between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers, but less rainfall south of the Yangtze River. The SSTA
is negative near the Taiwan Island due to the impact of strong EAWM and shows a La Ni?a
pattern anomaly over the eastern Pacific. During the weak MJO activity winters, the situation
is reversed. 相似文献
3.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO) has a significant impact on global weather and climate and can be used as a predictability resource in extended-term forecasting. We evaluate the ability of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Climate System Model(CAMS-CSM) to represent the MJO by using the diagnostic method proposed by the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program(CLIVAR) MJO Working Group(MJOWG). In general,the model simulates some major characteristics of MJO well, such as the seasonality characteristics and geographical dependence, the intensity of intraseasonal variability(ISV), dominant periodicity, propagation characteristics, coherence between outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) and wind, and life cycle of MJO signals. However, there are a few biases in the model when compared with observational/reanalyzed data. These include an overestimate of precipitation in the convergence zone of the North and South Pacific, a slightly weaker eastward propagation, and a shift in the dominant periodicity toward lower frequencies with slower speeds of eastward propagation. The model gives a poor simulation of the northward propagation of MJO in summer and shows less coherence between the MJO convection and wind. The role of moistening in the planetary boundary layer(PBL) in the eastward/northward propagation of MJO was also explored. An accurate representation of the vertical titling structure of moisture anomalies in CAMS-CSM leads to moistening of the PBL ahead of convection, which accounts for the eastward/northward propagation of MJO. Poor simulation of the vertical structure of the wind and moisture anomalies in the western Pacific leads to a poor simulation of the northward propagation of MJO in this area. Budget analysis of the PBL integral moisture anomalies shows that the model gives a good simulation of the moisture charging process ahead of MJO convection and that the zonal advection of moisture convergence term has a primary role in the detour of MJO over the Maritime Continent. 相似文献
4.
5.
30-60-day Oscillations of Convection and Circulation Associated with the Thermal State of the Western Pacific Warm Pool during Boreal Summer 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
This study focuses on the characteristics of the 30-60-day oscillation (MJO) associated with the interannual variability of the thermal state in the western Pacific warm pool. The composite results show that the amplitude of MJO convection over the tropical western Pacific tends to intensify (reduce) in the WARM (COLD) case. The negative correlations between MJO convection in the WARM and inthe COLD cases are examined to be significant over most of the Asian-Pacific region. The evolutions of MJO convection and lower circulation, on the one hand, exhibit larger differences between the WARM and COLD cases, but on the other hand, display a unique feature in that a well-developed MJO cyclone (anticyclone) is anchored over the Asian-Western Pacific domain at the peak enhanced (suppressed) MJO convection phase over the western Pacific warm pool, either in the WARM or in the COLD case. This unique feature of MJO shows a Gill-type response of lower circulation to the convection and is inferred to be an inherent appearance of MJO. The context in the paper suggests there may exist interactions between MJO and the interannual variability of the thermal state in the western Pacific warm pool. 相似文献
6.
The structure of planetary scale low frequency phenomena in the tropics is studied, and an attempt is made to de-termine its influence and interactions with phenomena at higher latitudes.In the tropics, it is found that the majority of the variance in the zonal wind structure is made up in wave num-bers 1 and 2. During warm events in the Pacific Ocean, when the Southern Oscillation Index is negative, almost all of the variance resides in the gravest mode which undergoes a 40o eastward phase shift. Meanwhile, the second logitudinal mode almost disappears. On the other hand, the meridional wind field possesses maximum amplitude at higher wave numbers. However, near the equator, the amplitude is small with extreme values occurring in the subtropics. The difference in scale and the location of extrema of the meridional and zonal wind components indicate that the tropical atmosphere is responding to two different driving mechanisms,Correlation analyses between variations of the zonal wind at reference points along the equator with variations of component elsewhere show that there are strong logitudinal connections. The strongest correlations between the tropics and higher latitudes exist in the region of the equatorial westerlies. In fact, stronger correlations occur between variations in U anywhere along the equator and the middle latitudes to the north and south of the equatorial wester-lies than to the latitudes immediately to the north and south of the reference points. We interpret this “remote” corre-lation pattern as indicating a two-stage teleconnection process which emphasizes the importance of the equatorial tropical westerlies of the Pacific Ocean as a “corridor” of communication between the low and high latitudes. The regionality of the correlations confirms, to some extent, recent theoretical development regarding trapped equatorial modes. Finally, time lagged correlations from plus and minus six months between variations of U and OLR indicate that the interactions between the extratropics and low latitudes possess an organized sequence. The extratropical in-fluence appears to propagate into the tropics followed by an eastward propagation along the equator. Finally, a propagation from the tropics to the extratropics in the upper troposphere occurs in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The time-lagged correlation sequence does not appear to be symmetric about the equator. 相似文献
7.
Intensity of the Trough over the Bay of Bengal and Its Impact on the Southern China Precipitation in Winter 
下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 In this study, the intensity of the trough over the Bay of Bengal (BBT) and its association with the southern China precipitation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Rossby wave propagation along the African-Asian subtropical Jet stream (AASJ) are investigated on the intraseasonal time scale. The results show that the intensity of the BBT affects the southern China precipitation more directly and to a greater degree than the MJO. The peak amplitude of the BBT tended to occur in phase-3 of the MJO. The strong BBT was substantially modulated by the Rossby wave propagation along the AASJ, which was triggered by the anomalous upstream circulation similar to the pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Therefore, from the perspective of medium- and extended-range weather forecasts, the NAO- like pattern may be regarded as a precursory signal for the strong BBT and thus the southern China precipitation. 相似文献
8.
The impact of tropical intraseasonal oscillations on the precipitation of Guangdong in Junes and its physical mechanism are analyzed using 30-yr (1979 to 2008), 86-station observational daily precipitation of Guangdong and daily atmospheric data from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis. It is found that during the annually first rainy season (April to June), the modulating effect of the activity of intraseasonal oscillations propagating eastward along the equator (MJO) on the June precipitation in Guangdong is different from that in other months. The most indicative effect of MJO on positive (negative) anomalous precipitation over the whole or most of the province is phase 3 (phase 6) of strong MJO events in Junes. A Northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3. Water vapor transporting along the edge of the subtropical high from Western Pacific enhances significantly the water vapor flux over Guangdong, resulting in the enhancement of the precipitation. The condition is reverse during phase 6. The mechanism for which the subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3 is related to the atmospheric response to the asymmetric heating over the eastern Indian Ocean. Analyses of two cases of sustained strong rainfall of Guangdong in June 2010 showed that both of them are closely linked with a MJO state which is both strong and in phase 3, besides the effect from a westerly trough. It is argued further that the MJO activity is indicative of strong rainfall of Guangdong in June. The results in the present work are helpful in developing strategies for forecasting severe rainfall in Guangdong and extending, combined with the outputs of dynamic forecast models, the period of forecasting validity. 相似文献
9.
NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN AND MESO-β SCALE LOW VORTEX IN INVERTED TYPHOON TROUGH* 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 JIANG Yongqiang WANG Changyu ZHANG Weihuan CHEN Zhongyi 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2004,18(2):195-210
Large-scale and mesoscale analyses are made for extremely heavy rain(EHR) and meso-β scale low vortex(MSLV) in Jiading District of Shanghai Municipality during 6-7 July 2001.It is shown that the EHR forms in the situation of northern westerly trough linking together with southern inverted typhoon trough at northwest side of the West Pacific Ocean subtropical high. Numerical simulation is made using a 21-layer improved REM(regional η coordinate model) for this course.The results show that the precipitation forms earlier than MSLV.and the strong convergence in wind velocity mate(WVM) triggers the strong precipitation.The formative reasons of WVM.especially the weak wind velocity center are discussed,and the formative mechanisms of the MSLV and EHR are discussed using high spatial and temporal resolution modeloutput physical fields.The results show that the heavy rain releases latent heat and warms the air column,and enhances the low level positive vorticity that existed before.Then it causes the formation of MSLV.There is a positive feedback mechanism between low vortex and precipitation,so CISK must be an important mechanism. 相似文献
10.
An operational weather forecast model, coupled to an oceanic model, was used to predict the initiation and propagation of two major Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO) events during the dynamics of the MJO(DYNAMO)campaign period. Two convective parameterization schemes were used to understand the sensitivity of the forecast to the model cumulus scheme. The first is the Tiedtke(TDK) scheme, and the second is the Simplified Arakawa–Schubert(SAS) scheme. The TDK scheme was able to forecast the MJO-1 and MJO-2 initiation at 15-and45-day lead, respectively, while the SAS scheme failed to predict the convection onset in the western equatorial Indian Ocean(WEIO). The diagnosis of the forecast results indicates that the successful prediction with the TDK scheme is attributed to the model capability to reproduce the observed intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation–sea surface temperature(OLR–SST) relationship. On one hand, the SST anomaly(SSTA) over the WEIO was induced by surface heat flux anomalies associated with the preceding suppressed-phase MJO. The change of SSTA, in turn,caused boundary layer convergence and ascending motion, which further induced a positive column-integrated moist static energy(MSE) tendency, setting up a convectively unstable stratification for MJO initiation. The forecast with the SAS scheme failed to reproduce the observed OLR–SST–MSE relation. The propagation characteristics differed markedly between the two forecasts. Pronounced eastward phase propagation in the TDK scheme is attributed to a positive zonal gradient of the MSE tendency relative to the MJO center, similar to the observed, whereas a reversed gradient appeared in the forecast with the SAS scheme with dominant westward propagation. The difference is primarily attributed to anomalous vertical and horizontal MSE advection. 相似文献
11.
12.
利用1979~2013年实时多要素MJO（Madden-Julian Oscillation）监测（RMM）指数,美国NOAA逐日长波辐射资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,分析了全球变化背景下北半球冬季MJO传播的年代际变化特征。从全球平均气温快速增暖期（1985~1997）到变暖趋缓期（2000~2012）,MJO 2~4位相频次减少,5~7位相频次增多,即MJO对流活跃区在热带印度洋地区停留时间缩短、传播速度加快,而在热带西太平洋停留时间加长、传播明显减缓。进一步分析发现,以上MJO的年代际变化特征与全球变化年代际波动有关。当太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）处于负位相时,全球变暖趋缓,热带东印度洋—西太平洋海温异常偏暖,使其上空对流加强,垂直上升运动加强,对流层低层辐合,大气中的水汽含量增多,该区域的湿静力能（MSE）为正异常。当MJO对流活跃区位于热带印度洋地区时,MJO异常环流对季节平均MSE的输送在强对流中心东侧为正、西侧为负,有利于东侧MSE扰动增加,使得MJO对流扰动东移加快;而当MJO对流活跃区在热带西太平洋地区,MJO异常环流对平均MSE的输送形成东负西正的形势,东侧MSE扰动减小,不利于MJO快速东传。因此,全球变化背景下PDO引起的大气中水汽含量及MSE的变化可能是MJO传播年代际变化的重要原因。 相似文献
13.
夏季MJO持续异常的主要特征分析 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
在MJO传播过程中,其活动中心并不总是规律地沿赤道东传。本文通过资料分析发现,夏季MJO的活动中心会出现东传停滞的情况,表现为MJO在赤道太平洋持续异常活跃或者在印度洋持续异常活跃两种形式。为更好描述MJO这种东传不明显的异常特征,本文定义了一个描述MJO持续异常的指数,并据此对夏季MJO持续异常的主要特征进行分析。通过小波分析的方法,发现夏季MJO持续异常时其振荡周期会出现缩短或变弱。通过对MJO持续异常状况下的大气环流进行合成对比分析后发现,夏季MJO的持续异常会对热带大气环流造成显著的影响。具体表现为:MJO夏季在赤道太平洋（印度洋）持续活跃的时候,赤道沃克环流减弱（增强）,西太平洋哈得来环流增强（减弱）,西太平洋副高位置偏北（偏南）,赤道太平洋（印度洋）高层辐散且对流活跃。 相似文献
14.
热带大气季节内振荡 (Madden-Julian oscillation,MJO) 是次季节-季节时间尺度气候变率的支配模态。它不仅对低纬度地区天气气候产生重要影响,还能够通过经向传播和激发大气遥相关波列对中高纬度地区产生影响,是延伸期尺度最重要的可预报性来源。因此,MJO预报是次季节-季节气候预测中极为重要的部分,近年来受到国际学术界广泛关注。该文回顾了MJO预报发展历史,概述了当前国际上主要科研业务机构的MJO预报发展现状。目前基于统计方法和气候模式的MJO预报研究取得了较大进展,特别是多个耦合气候模式和一种基于时空投影方法的统计模型均能够显著提升MJO预报技巧 (有效预报可达20 d以上)。该文还介绍了中国气象局国家气候中心在MJO预报技术发展和业务系统研制方面的新进展,当前基于第2代大气环流模式的MJO业务预报填补了国内空白,技巧为16~17 d,而耦合气候模式试验的技巧已达到约20 d。总体来看,利用耦合模式预报MJO是未来发展的主要方向,其中,面向MJO的模式初始化和集合预报新方法研究将是关注重点。 相似文献
15.
Effect of vertical overturning circulation scale and moist static energy tendency on MJO phase speed 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 本文通过对1979-2019年ERA-I再分析资料进行诊断分析,研究了MJO垂直环流(VOC)纬向尺度和湿静力能(MSE)趋势纬向不对称性对MJO传播速度的综合影响.研究结果表明,MJO传播速度与VOC的纬向尺度和MSE趋势纬向梯度之间存在显著的正相关关系.基于上述两个参数,本文建立了线性回归模型,该模型可以较好的估计... 相似文献
16.
多时间尺度环流对热带气旋海棠(0505)路径的影响 总被引：7，自引：6，他引：1
利用滤波方法将NCEP/NCAR提供的FNL风场资料分离出天气尺度和低频环流场,研究不同时间尺度环流对台风海棠（0505）路径的影响。热带气旋海棠路径的特征可以分两个主要阶段,在第一阶段,海棠西侧的天气尺度反气旋和低频流场副高南侧气流共同引导海棠向西南运动;第二阶段初期,天气尺度环流抑制海棠向北转向,但海棠西侧的QBW气旋和MJO尺度的气流共同引导海棠向北运动。海棠运动后期,海棠与低频气旋的相互作用导致了天气尺度流场中波列的产生和发展,形成了热带气旋的传播分量,令海棠产生了向东北转向的趋势,但是由于MJO环流场中副高的北抬和QBW气旋的引导,最终导致海棠向西运动。 相似文献
17.
IAP9L AGCM中大气季节内振荡的时空特征 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
根据IAP9LAGCM10年积分850hPa纬向风的逐日输出结果,应用Morlet小波分析方法,研究了该模式中的大气季节内振荡(MJO),结果表明该模式能抓住热带MJO的基本时空特征,模式中MJO的显著周期为36天;另外还分析了16～64天重构信号的时间经度剖面图,发现该MJO为东传,这与实际较一致;最后用EOF方法分析了模式大气中850hPa5天平均速度势,揭示出该MJO在全球表现为行星尺度1波和2波的特征。 相似文献
18.
This study evaluates the ability of four versions BCC (Beijing Climate Center or National Climate Center) models (BCC_AGCM2.1, BCC_AGCM2.2, BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1m) in simulating the MJO phenomenon using the outputs of the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) and historical runs. In general, the models can simulate some major characteristics of the MJO, such as the intensity, the periodicity, the propagation, and the temporal/spatial evolution of the MJO signals in the tropics. There are still some biases between the models and the observation/reanalysis data, such as the overestimated total intraseasonal variability, but underestimated MJO intensity, shorter significant periodicity, and excessive westward propagation. The differences in the ability of simulating the MJO between AMIP and historical experiments are also significant. Compared to the AMIP runs, the total intraseasonal variability is reduced and more realistic, however the ratio between the MJO and its westward counterpart decreases in the historical runs. This unrealistic simulation of the zonal propagation might have been associated with the greater mean precipitation over the Pacific and corresponded to the exaggeration of the South Pacific Convergence Zone structure in precipitation mean state. In contrast to the T42 versions, the improvement of model resolution demonstrate more elaborate topography, but the enhanced westward propagation signals over the Arabia Sea followed. The underestimated (overestimated) MJO variability over eastern Indian Ocean (Pacific) was assumed to be associated with the mean state. Three sets of sensitive experiments using BCC_CSM1.1m turn out to support this argument. 相似文献