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1.
An Assessment of Turbulence Profiles in Rural and Urban Environments Using Local Measurements and Numerical Weather Prediction Results 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Profiles of velocity variances based on observations in flat rural areas are well established, and are used for modelling turbulent dispersion in all types of regions including those of complex terrain and urban areas. Surface-based and balloon observations are used to assess the profiles in both rural and urban areas. It is shown that, with good meteorological inputs for the locality of friction velocity and surface sensible heat flux, the profiles are equally well suited to urban areas. The sensitivity of the profiles to the input meteorological data, in particular using numerical weather prediction (NWP) data, is discussed. This highlights the limitations of NWP data for dispersion modelling and stresses the importance of schemes for modelling urban meteorology.The British Crowns right to retain a non-exclusive royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged. 相似文献
2.
Thomas Loridan Fredrik Lindberg Oriol Jorba Simone Kotthaus Susanne Grossman-Clarke C. S. B. Grimmond 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,147(3):493-523
The parameterization of surface heat-flux variability in urban areas relies on adequate representation of surface characteristics. Given the horizontal resolutions (e.g. $\approx $ 0.1–1 km) currently used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, properties of the urban surface (e.g. vegetated/built surfaces, street-canyon geometries) often have large spatial variability. Here, a new approach based on Urban Zones to characterize Energy partitioning (UZE) is tested within a NWP model (Weather Research and Forecasting model; WRF v3.2.1) for Greater London. The urban land-surface scheme is the Noah/Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM). Detailed surface information (horizontal resolution 1 km) in central London shows that the UZE offers better characterization of surface properties and their variability compared to default WRF-SLUCM input parameters. In situ observations of the surface energy fluxes and near-surface meteorological variables are used to select the radiation and turbulence parameterization schemes and to evaluate the land-surface scheme and choice of surface parameters. For radiative fluxes, improved performance (e.g. $>$ 25 W m $^{-2}$ root-mean-square error reduction for the net radiation) is attained with UZE parameters compared to the WRF v3.2.1 default for all three methods from the simplest to the most detailed. The UZE-based spatial fluxes reproduce a priori expectations of greater energy storage and less evaporation in the dense city centre compared to the residential surroundings. Problems in Noah/SLUCM partitioning of energy between the daytime turbulent fluxes are identified with the overestimation of the turbulent sensible heat and underestimation of the turbulent latent heat fluxes. 相似文献
3.
Efisio Solazzo Silvana Di Sabatino Noel Aquilina Agnes Dudek Rex Britter 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2010,137(3):441-457
The ongoing trend of urbanisation worldwide is leading to a growing requirement for detailed flow and transport parameterisations
to be included within numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Such models often employ a simple roughness parameterisation
for urban areas, which is not particularly accurate in predicting or assessing the flow and dispersion at street scale. Moreover,
this kind of parameterisation offers too poor a representation of the mechanical and thermal forcing exerted by urban areas
on the larger scale flow. At present, high computational costs and long simulation running times are among the constraints
for the implementation of more detailed urban sub-models within NWP models. To overcome such limitations, a downscaling procedure
from the atmospheric flow at the synoptic scale to the neighbourhood scale and below, is presented in this study. This is
achieved by means of a simple urban model based on a parameterised formulation of the drag exerted by the building on the
airflow. Application of the urban model for estimating spatially-averaged mean wind speed and the urban heat island over a
selected neighbourhood area in Lisbon, Portugal, is presented. The results show the capability of the urban model to provide
more accurate mean wind and temperature profiles. Moreover, the urban model has the advantage of being cost effective, as
it requires small computational resources, and thus is suitable to be adopted in an operational context. The model is simple
enough to be also used to assess how the resolving of urban surface processes may affect those at the larger scales. 相似文献
4.
5.
We develop an urban canopy scheme coupled to a mesoscale atmospheric numerical model and evaluate the simulated climate of
an Australian city. The urban canopy scheme is based on the Town Energy Budget approach, but is modified to efficiently represent
the predominately suburban component of Australian cities in regional climate simulations. Energy conservation is improved
by adding a simple model of air-conditioning to prevent the urban parametrization acting as an energy sink during the Australian
summer. In-canyon vegetation for suburban areas is represented by a big-leaf model, but with a largely reduced set of prognostic
variables compared to previous approaches. Although we have used a recirculation/venting based parametrization of in-canyon
turbulent heat fluxes that employs two canyon wall energy budgets, we avoid using a fixed canyon orientation by averaging
the canyon fluxes after integrating over 180° of possible canyon orientations. The urban canopy scheme is evaluated by simulating
the climate for Melbourne, Australia after coupling it to The Air Pollution Model. The combined system was found to predict
a realistic climatology of air temperatures and winds when compared with observations from Environmental Protection Authority
monitoring stations. The model also produced a plausible partitioning of the urban energy budget when compared to urban flux-tower
studies. Overall, the urban canyon parametrization appears to have reasonable potential for studying present and predicting
changes in future Australian urban climates in regional climate simulations. 相似文献
6.
作者介绍了近年来在数值天气预报领域的一个新动向－变网格一体化模式的进展。这种模式可以替代目前业务数值天气预报的有限区模式和全球谱模式，降低业务数值天气预报的计算成本。网格距离的可变性，以及采用半隐式－半拉格朗日式时间差分方案是该模式的主要特点。法国的变网格一体化模式自１９９２年已投入业务使用，其可行性已得到了预报检验的初步证实。 相似文献
7.
M. J. Best C. S. B. Grimmond Maria Gabriella Villani 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,118(3):503-525
The UK Met Office has introduced a new scheme for its urban tile in MOSES 2.2 (Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme version 2.2), which is currently implemented within the operational Met Office weather forecasting model. Here, the performance of the urban tile is evaluated in two urban areas: the historic core of downtown Mexico City and a light industrial site in Vancouver, Canada. The sites differ in terms of building structures and mean building heights. In both cases vegetation cover is less than 5%. The evaluation is based on surface energy balance flux measurements conducted at approximately the blending height, which is the location where the surface scheme passes flux data into the atmospheric model. At both sites, MOSES 2.2 correctly simulates the net radiation, but there are discrepancies in the partitioning of turbulent and storage heat fluxes between predicted and observed values. Of the turbulent fluxes, latent heat fluxes were underpredicted by about one order of magnitude. Multiple model runs revealed MOSES 2.2 to be sensitive to changes in the canopy heat storage and in the ratio between the aerodynamic roughness length and that for heat transfer (temperature). Model performance was optimum with heat capacity values smaller than those generally considered for these sites. The results suggest that the current scheme is probably too simple, and that improvements may be obtained by increasing the complexity of the model. 相似文献
8.
We discuss the impact of the differential treatment of the roughness lengths for momentum and heat ( $z_{0\mathrm{m}}$ and $z_{0\mathrm{h}}$ ) in the flux parametrization scheme of the high-resolution regional model (HRM) for a heterogeneous terrain centred around Thiruvananthapuram, India (8.5°N, 76.9°E). The magnitudes of sensible heat flux (H) obtained from HRM simulations using the original parametrization scheme differed drastically from the concurrent in situ observations. With a view to improving the performance of this parametrization scheme, two distinct modifications are incorporated: (1) In the first method, a constant value of 100 is assigned to the $z_{0\mathrm{m}}/z_{0\mathrm{h}}$ ratio; (2) and in the second approach, this ratio is treated as a function of time. Both these modifications in the HRM model showed significant improvements in the H simulations for Thiruvananthapuram and its adjoining regions. Results obtained from the present study provide a first-ever comparison of H simulations using the modified parametrization scheme in the HRM model with in situ observations for the Indian coastal region, and suggest a differential treatment of $z_{0\mathrm{m}}$ and $z_{0\mathrm{h}}$ in the flux parametrization scheme. 相似文献
9.
This article describes a new general circulation model (GCM) developed jointly by The University of New South Wales (UNSW)
and the University of Hamburg. The model is versatile in that it can be run as a medium-range (1 to 15 days) global numerical
weather prediction (NWP) model; as an extended range (15 to 30 days) NWP model; and as a GCM for periods extending from seasons,
through annual and decadal periods, and beyond. The model can be coupled with ocean models that vary in complexity from simple
"swamp" oceans to complex ocean GCMs. The atmospheric GCM also has a number of novel features, particularly in the numerical
integration scheme which is a high-order, mass-conserving, semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian scheme, thereby removing the stability
restriction on the time-step and allowing efficient long-term integrations. The emphasis here will be on demonstrating that
the new model performs effectively on the usual measures of skill (statistics such as mean errors, root-mean-square errors
and anomaly correlations) in several standard applications upon which new models usually are assessed. These applications
include medium range weather forecasts out to 10 days on a daily basis over a one year period; a limited 10-year simulation
climatology, prediction of atmospheric anomalies using SST anomalies in an El Nino year; and an alternative two-way approach
to regional modelling (the "down-scaling problem") made possible because the unconditional stability of the semi-implicit,
semi-Lagrangian formulation permits large variations in grid spacing without changing the time step size. Finally, the model
is run on a variety of parallel computing platforms and it is shown that near-linear speed-up can be attained. This is significant
for both medium range NWP and very long-term GCM integrations.
Received: 28 February 1996 / Accepted: 30 July 1996 相似文献
10.
Improvement of the semi-Lagrangian advection scheme in the GRAPES model: Theoretical analysis and idealized tests 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
ABSTRACT The Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System （GRAPES） is the newgeneration numerical weather predic- tion （NWP） system developed by the China Meteorological Administration. It is a fully compressible non-hydrostatical global/regional unified model that uses a traditional semi-Lagrangian advection scheme with cubic Lagrangian interpola tion （referred to as the SL_CL scheme）. The SL_CL scheme has been used in many operational NWP models, but there are still some deficiencies, such as the damping effects due to the interpolation and the relatively low accuracy. Based on Reich＇s semi-Lagrangian advection scheme （referred to as the R2007 scheme）, the Re_R2007 scheme that uses the low- and high-order B-spline function for interpolation at the departure point, is developed in this paper. One- and two-dimensional idealized tests in the rectangular coordinate system with uniform grid cells were conducted to compare the Re..R2007 scheme and the SL_CL scheme. The numerical results showed that： （1） the damping effects were remarkably reduced with the Re_R2007 scheme; and （2） the normalized errors of the Re_R2007 scheme were about 7.5 and 3 times smaller than those of the SL_CL scheme in one- and two-dimensional tests, respectively, indicating the higher accuracy of the Re..R2007 scheme. Furthermore, two solid-body rotation tests were conducted in the latitude-longitude spherical coordinate system with non uniform grid cells, which also verified the Re_R2007 scheme＇s advantages. Finally, in comparison with other global advection schemes, the Re_R2007 scheme was competitive in terms of accuracy and flow independence. An encouraging possibility for the application of the Re_R2007 scheme to the GRAPES model is provided. 相似文献
11.
M. S. Speer L. M. Leslie L. Qi B. W. Buckley 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2004,87(1-3):161-166
Summary The aim of this study is to point to the very large improvements that are taking place in a range of modelling applications in the urban areas. The particular phenomenon chosen in this study is a supercell, but it could well have been any other aspect of urban modelling. The Sydney hailstorm of 14 April 1999 was a long-lived, high precipitation supercell that produced a massive damage bill of over 2 billion Australian dollars from its hail swath. The Sydney hailstorm was poorly forecast for a number of reasons including: the severe weather season had officially ended so there were no specialist staff on duty when the hailstorm struck Sydney; the storm proved very difficult to predict and it was expected to continue heading out to sea; and the forecast guidance from all available operational numerical models was inadequate at the resolution required for a supercell simulation. Here, our interest is on the last of the problems, namely, the quality of the operational numerical model guidance, especially given the impact it had on a densely populated urban region.In this study, we compare the numerical guidance available at the time with current modeling capability which, although in research mode at present, will soon be available in real-time mode. The operational models were hydrostatic models run at horizontal resolutions of 25km at best, compared with 1km horizontal resolution for the non-hydrostatic research model. The research model also had a high-order differencing scheme and a sophisticated six phase cloud physics scheme compared with the much simpler parameterized convection in the operational models. The operational model produced very little convective precipitation and it was displaced well to the north of Sydney. The research model generated a supercell with a track and a hail size distribution that was encouragingly close to the observed. 相似文献
12.
M. J. Best 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2006,84(1-3):47-55
Summary The current resolution of operational weather forecast model is not sufficient in general to explicitly resolve even the major
cities of the World. As a consequence, urban areas have traditionally been neglected in such models. The introduction of tiled
land surface models has enabled sub-gridscale landuse to be modelled, and hence has provided the opportunity to model cities
within weather forecast models. However, to date there has been little effort made within the operational weather forecast
community.
At present there is only one operational centre that explicitly resolves urban areas. This centre includes a simple urban
scheme within its mesoscale and global models, which has been shown to have a positive impact on the forecast. However, with
the recent developments within urban meteorology there are now a variety of urban schemes, which vary in their complexity
and parameter requirements, that would be suitable for operational weather forecast models. So it is likely that more operational
models, and in particular mesoscale models, will include urban areas in the near future.
With the majority of the World‘s population living in cities, the resilience of these cities to the impacts of climate change
is also becoming of increasing interest. This means that urban areas will have to be included within climate change simulations,
as well as weather forecast simulations, in the future. At present, only one climate change model has included a parametrisation
for urban areas. However, this is likely to increase if work in this area grows rapidly. 相似文献
13.
在T106中期数值预报模式和T63气候模式中进行了两种辐射过程参数化的对比试验。目前在这两个模式中用作对照积分的辐射方案(OPE)是ECMWF的早期业务方案，而新的辐射方案(NEW)是ECMWF 1989年5月2日成为业务的版本。试验结果表明，OPE高估了短波水的吸收，导致太大的短波大气吸收和地表太小的向下短波辐射；OPE还低估了长波辐射冷却和大气顶的向外长波辐射(OLR)；NEW增加了地表有效辐射能量和对流层总的冷却，产生了较大的湍流热通量，对流活动加强，降水量明显增加；NEW还使平流层温度偏暖得到矫正。业务平行试验的统计检验表明，NEW对4～7天中期预报有较显著的改进。 相似文献
14.
The initial value error and the imperfect numerical model are usually considered as error sources of numerical weather prediction (NWP). By using past multi-time observations and model output, this study proposes a method to estimate imperfect numerical model error. This method can be inversely estimated through expressing the model error as a Lagrange interpolation polynomial, while the coefficients of polynomial are determined by past model performance. However, for practical application in the full NWP model, it is necessary to determine the following criteria: (1) the length of past data sufficient for estimation of the model errors, (2) a proper method of estimating the term "model integration with the exact solution" when solving the inverse problem, and (3) the extent to which this scheme is sensitive to the observational errors. In this study, such issues are resolved using a simple linear model, and an advection-diffusion model is applied to discuss the sensitivity of the method to an artificial error source. The results indicate that the forecast errors can be largely reduced using the proposed method if the proper length of past data is chosen. To address the three problems, it is determined that (1) a few data limited by the order of the corrector can be used, (2) trapezoidal approximation can be employed to estimate the "term" in this study; however, a more accurate method should be explored for an operational NWP model, and (3) the correction is sensitive to observational error. 相似文献
15.
Summary A land-air parametrization scheme (LAPS) describes mass, energy and momentum transfer between the land surface and the atmosphere. The scheme is designed as a software package which can be run as part of an atmospheric model or a stand-alone scheme. A single layer approach is chosen for the physical and biophysical scheme background. The scheme has six prognostic variables: two temperatures (one for the canopy vegetation and one for soil surface), one interception storage, and three soil moisture storage variables. The scheme's upper boundary conditions are: air temperature, water vapour pressure, wind speed, radiation and precipitation at some reference level within the atmospheric boundary layer. The sensible and latent heat are calculated using resistance representation. The evaporation from the bare soil is parametrized using the scheme. The soil part is designed as a three-layer model which is used to describe the vertical transfer of water in the soil.The performances of the LAPS scheme were tested using the results of meteorological measurements over a maize field at the experimental site De Sinderhoeve (The Netherlands). The predicted partitioning of the absorbed radiation into sensible and latent heat fluxes is in good agreement with observations. Also, the predicted leaf temperature agrees quite well with the observed values.With 9 Figures 相似文献
16.
数值天气预报业务模式现状与展望 总被引：36，自引：5，他引：31
20 0 4年是数值天气预报理论提出 10 0周年 ,同时也是数值天气预报业务化应用 5 0周年。经过百年的发展历程 ,数值天气预报学科有了飞跃的发展。特别是最近 10多年来 ,大气科学以及地球科学的研究进展 ,高速度、大容量的巨型计算机及网络系统的快速发展 ,更加快了数值天气预报的发展步伐。文中从模式动力框架、物理过程参数化、模式程序软件等方面对数值天气预报业务模式现状进行了简要综述 ,对存在的问题进行了探讨 ,并对数值天气预报业务模式的未来发展作了展望。当前数值天气预报业务模式发展的特点有 :(1) 2 0世纪 90年代中期以来 ,各国的全球和区域模式水平和垂直分辨率都有明显提高 ,且模式物理过程也同步进行改进 ;数值预报业务模式已进入了大规模并行计算的阶段 ;(2 )主要发达国家和中国都正在致力于研发各自的新业务数值预报模式———非静力 (多尺度 )一体化模式或非静力中尺度模式 ,部分国家的新一代天气 气候一体化数值模式已业务运行 ;(3)业务数值预报模式正在朝着不断完善的方向发展。随着模式分辨率的提高 ,云物理过程、陆面过程和湍流过程、考虑坡度 -坡向因子的辐射过程等在模式中的参数化方案 ,以及模式垂直坐标的选择越来越受重视 ,这些物理过程的描述成为业务数值模式改进的重点和 相似文献
17.
Holly Jean Buck 《Climatic change》2016,136(2):155-174
We describe a new approach that allows for systematic causal attribution of weather and climate-related events, in near-real time. The method is designed so as to facilitate its implementation at meteorological centers by relying on data and methods that are routinely available when numerically forecasting the weather. We thus show that causal attribution can be obtained as a by-product of data assimilation procedures run on a daily basis to update numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with new atmospheric observations; hence, the proposed methodology can take advantage of the powerful computational and observational capacity of weather forecasting centers. We explain the theoretical rationale of this approach and sketch the most prominent features of a “data assimilation–based detection and attribution” (DADA) procedure. The proposal is illustrated in the context of the classical three-variable Lorenz model with additional forcing. The paper concludes by raising several theoretical and practical questions that need to be addressed to make the proposal operational within NWP centers. 相似文献
18.
数值天气预报模式产品在预报业务中的应用 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
介绍了数值预报模式产品性能的基本特征,讨论了模式产品误差的地理、季节和层次分布、不同尺度模式产品的可预报性、模式输出要素及物理量、指数的误差特点,并根据目前业务中常见的错误预报思路探讨了应用数值预报模式产品的合理思路,指出现代预报业务中预报员的作用。认为现代预报员应该了解几种基本的数值预报模式的特性及基本原理,集合各种模式的优点,综合本地预报经验,有效利用海量数值预报产品,做出更高质量的预报结果。 相似文献
19.
不同业务预报初值形成方案的数值模拟比较 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
设计了一个适用于同步，双重嵌套模式的ｐ－面水平插值，双非线性正规模初值形成方案。把新方案与国家气象中心的台风路径数值预报准实时业务模式原预报初值形成方案进行了比较。所选台风个例的４８小时数值模拟结果表明，新的预报初值形成方案优于原方案。 相似文献
20.
证明了模式在预报时段的纬向平均环流误差，是由于在预报时段内模式大气和真实大气中西风加速过程的不同造成的。又由于原始方程的无加速定理中各强迫因子具有良好的线性迭加性，因此能够清楚地将造成模式系统误差的动力因子分解开来。通过对Ｔ４２Ｌ９模式的分析，说明原始方程的无加速定理可以作为分析模式系统误差的良好手段。动力诊断分析结果表明，模式对纬向平均环流分布具有较好的预报能力，但在各缔带也存在明显的误差。通过无加速定理的分解分析，本文研究了这些误差的成因及改善模式的可能途径。 相似文献