共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 359 毫秒
1.
合理的背景场误差协方差矩阵是做好变分同化的关键。为进一步认识背景场误差协方差矩阵在中尺度预报中的作用,对背景场误差协方差中平衡关系的纬度依赖特征及其对中尺度同化及预报效果的影响进行了研究。为使得平衡关系既包含纬度依赖特征,又降低纬度依赖带来的非平衡的噪音信息,在背景场误差协方差矩阵构造的平衡变换过程中引入了递归滤波的方法,对平衡变换中的回归系数进行了滤波平滑。同化单点观测的理想试验表明纬度依赖的背景场误差协方差具有更合理的动力关系,且滤波后的背景场误差协方差既保持了纬度依赖特征且明显平滑了噪音信息。台风“莫拉克”同化数值模拟试验表明纬度依赖的背景场误差协方差明显提高了36 h及以上的中心海平面最低气压和路径预报的预报效果。 相似文献
2.
《气象与环境学报》2018,(6)
利用天气研究和预报模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,WRF)、WRF三维变分同化(Weather Research and Forecasting-Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation,WRF-3DVAR)及美国国家气象中心(National Meteorological Center,NMC)方法,采用热启动循环同化和冷启动两种不同初值方案开展数值试验,探讨不同初值方案模拟的背景场误差样本对背景误差协方差及其同化预报效果产生的影响。结果表明:由不同初值方案模拟的背景场误差样本统计得到的背景误差协方差,其单点同化试验均符合理论模型,但二者分析增量场的差异较显著。对2015年"苏迪罗"台风降水个例进行的数值试验表明,不同初值方案模拟的背景场误差样本统计得到的背景误差协方差对同化分析场具有一定影响,进而对台风移动路径和台风降水的模拟产生了较显著的影响,但对台风强度和台风中心附近最大风速的影响不显著。4个不同起报时刻数值试验进一步表明,采用热启动循环同化背景场误差样本模拟方案统计的背景误差协方差,对"苏迪罗"台风路径和降水预报效果较好,其中对台风路径的影响主要体现在数值预报模式积分24 h之后。 相似文献
3.
4.
《内蒙古气象》2019,(4)
背景场误差协方差矩阵的统计是资料同化的重点工作。文章利用NMC方法对内蒙古区域模式2017年7月和2018年2月各月的预报场进行背景场误差协方差矩阵的统计,通过对重新统计背景场误差协方差矩阵的特征、单点试验及预报效果进行分析。结果表明:内蒙古夏季和冬季控制变量的特征向量变化特征相似,但由于天气系统的影响而有所差别;夏季和冬季各控制变量在各模态上的特征值都随着模态数的增加而快速减小,冬季误差模态振幅要小于夏季,这主要是由于影响内蒙古夏季的天气系统较多,天气过程较冬季复杂;对模式贡献越小的特征向量,其特征长度尺度也越小,影响的范围也越小;单点试验验证了应用本地资料重新统计的背景场误差协方差矩阵的合理性。对暴雨个例的数值模拟试验表明:应用本地化背景场误差协方差同化后模拟的强降水范围和强度均得到明显改善,降水模拟更接近实况。说明本地化后的背景场误差协方差对模式预报具有一定的改进作用,在三维变分同化系统中,背景场误差协方差的重新统计工作十分必要。 相似文献
5.
多普勒雷达资料在冷涡强对流天气中的同化应用试验 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
应用WRF模式的三维变分同化系统(WRF-3DVAR),对沈阳多普勒天气雷达资料在东北冷涡暴雨个例中的同化应用进行了试验.研制了多普勒雷达资料质量控制系统,实现了对径向风和反射率因子的直接同化,不但可以反演中尺度三维气象要素场,而且可以为模式提供初始场.以天气尺度资料为背景场同化多普勒雷达资料,WRF-3DVAR可以较好地反演冷涡中尺度对流系统的三维结构,反演的地面强对流辐散气流及在对流层中层涡旋都符合中尺度系统概念模型,通过与实际地面探测资料进行了对比,风场环流基本接近,同化了雷达资料的气象要素场可为预报业务提供较好的包含中小尺度系统的实时三维分析场.通过冷涡个例同化试验,应用WRF-3DVAR同化雷达资料后,中尺度模式对对流降水的预报总体有正的影响,对强对流中的一些中小尺度雨团的预报也略有改善. 相似文献
6.
高分辨率WRF三维变分同化在北京地区降水预报中的应用 总被引：14，自引：4，他引：10
为迎接2008年北京奥运会,改进北京地区的天气预报,建立了一个基于三重嵌套区域(27/9/3 km)的WRF三维变分同化(WRFVar)和WRF模式的高分辨率快速更新循环同化预报(Rapid-Up-date Cycle)系统,并针对2006年8月1日发生在北京地区的强对流天气进行了一系列数值试验,结果表明:高分辨率的快速更新循环系统很好地预报出了此次强降水过程;在WRF三维变分同化里调节背景场误差和观测误差,提高了降水预报的效果;插值得出的3 km背景场误差可以作为一个合理的近似在3 km分辨率的WRFVar中使用,用户可以不必积累高分辨率的预报场去计算背景场误差,从而节省大量计算资源。3 h频次的RUC已经能满足预报要求,更高频次(1 h)的RUC并没有导致预报的进一步提高。 相似文献
7.
利用AMSU辐射率资料和常规观测资料,采用自行模拟的区域背景误差协方差(B)的WRFDA同化系统和中尺度数值模式WRF预报系统,对2007年7月8—9日发生在江淮流域的一次暴雨过程进行了模拟研究,设计了4组试验方案,对比分析了不同方案的模拟结果。结果表明,连续同化AMSU辐射率资料,可以改善降水预报效果,尤其是降水强度;通过连续使用AMSU资料,可以改进影响暴雨系统的大尺度环境场;AMSU-A资料对温度场有较为明显的影响,而AMSU-B资料对湿度场的调整有较大的贡献。 相似文献
8.
针对2008年6月广东地区的一次强降雨过程,利用WRF中尺度数值模式及其三维变分同化系统(WRF-3DVAR),进行了多普勒雷达径向速度变分同化对暴雨过程模拟效果影响研究。结果表明:WRF-3DVAR能够有效地同化多普勒雷达径向速度,同化后的主要影响在于改进了初始动力场,使得初始场包含有更详尽的中尺度特征信息,进而显著提高模式对广东局地暴雨过程的模拟效果。在高分辨率中尺度数值模式中有效地利用多普勒天气雷达资料,是提高中尺度降雨预报的关键。 相似文献
9.
美国WRF模式的进展和应用前景 总被引：53，自引：3，他引：53
WRF(Weather Research Forecast)模式系统是美国气象界联合开发的新一代中尺度预报模式和同化系统，2004年6月对外发布了第二版和三维变分同化系统。这个模式采用高度模块化、并行化和分层设计技术，集成了迄今为止在中尺度方面的研究成果。模拟和实时预报试验表明，WRF模式系统在预报各种天气中都具有较好的性能，同时实现在线完全嵌套大气化学模式，不仅具有较好的天气预报水平，而且具有预报空气质量的能力，具有广阔的应用前景。 相似文献
10.
多普勒雷达径向速度同化在淮河暴雨数值模拟中的应用 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
针对2007年7月淮河流域的一次强降雨过程,利用WRF中尺度数值模式及其三维变分同化系统(WRF-3DVAR),开展了多普勒雷达径向速度的三维变分同化对暴雨过程模拟效果的影响研究。结果表明:WRF-3DVAR能够有效地同化多普勒雷达径向速度资料,同化后使得模式初始场出现了一定的调整,包含更详尽的中尺度特征信息,进而显著改善模式对大暴雨过程前12h降水的模拟效果。在高分辨率中尺度数值模式中有效地利用多普勒天气雷达资料,能较好地提高中尺度降雨预报。 相似文献
11.
Previous studies showed that 4 D-Var technique used for data assimilation could be modified for weather control. This study demonstrates the ability of 4 D-Var to influence the future path of a tropical cyclone by calculating perturbations in WRF simulation. Given the background error covariance matrix, the initial field is improved by the vortex dynamic initialization technique. Our results show that 4 D-Var can be applied to control the trajectory of simulated tropical cyclones by producing "optimal" perturbations. In the numerical simulation experiment of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, after this kind of weather control similar to data assimilation, the tropical cyclone moved obviously,and the damaging wind over the coastline weakened. The prediction results after the initial field modified by 4 D-Var have a great change, and the position of the tropical cyclone moved about 0.5° southeastward after assimilation,which misses the southeast coast of China. Moreover, the damaging wind is also weakened. Since the 4 D-Var is premised on the assumption that the model is perfect and does not consider the model error, then the research plan to consider model error and introduce new methods is discussed in the paper. 相似文献
12.
13.
VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION USING WAVELET BACKGROUND ERROR COVARIANCE: INITIALIZATION OF TYPHOON KAEMI (2006) 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Background error covariance plays an important role in any variational data assimilation system, because it determines how information from observations is spread in model space and between different model variables. In this paper, the use of orthogonal wavelets in representation of background error covariance over a limited area is studied. Based on the WRF model and its 3D-VAR system, an algorithm using orthogonal wavelets to model background error covariance is developed. Because each wavelet function contains information on both position and scale, using a diagonal correlation matrix in wavelet space gives the possibility to represent some anisotropic and inhomogeneous characteristics of background error covariance. The experiments show that local correlation functions are better modeled than spectral methods. The formulation of wavelet background error covariance is tested with the typhoon Kaemi (2006). The results of experiments indicate that the subsequent forecasts of typhoon Kaemi’s track and intensity are significantly improved by the new method. 相似文献
14.
The impact of applying three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var DA) on convective-scale forecasts is investigated by using two mesoscale models, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) and the Hirlam and Aladin Research Model On Non-hydrostatic-forecast Inside Europe (HARMONIE-AROME). One month (1 to 30 December 2013) of numerical experiments were conducted with these two models at 2.5 km horizontal resolution, in order to partly resolve convective phenomena, on the same domain over a mountainous area in Iran and neighboring areas. Furthermore, in order to estimate the domain specific background error statistics (BES) in convective scales, two months (1 November to 30 December 2017) of numerical experiments were carried out with both models by downscaling operational ECMWF forecasts. For setting the numerical experiments in an operational scenario, ECMWF operational forecast data were used as initial and lateral boundary conditions (ICs/LBCs). In order to examine the impact of data assimilation, the 3D-Var method in cycling mode was adopted and the forecasts were verified every 6 hours up to 36 hours for selected meteorological variables. In addition, 24 h accumulated precipitation forecasts were verified separately. Generally, the WRF and HARMONIE-AROME exhibit similar verification statistics for the selected forecast variables. The impact of DA on the numerical forecast shows some evidence of improvement in both models, and this effect decreases severely at longer lead times. Results from verifying the 24 h convective-scale precipitation forecasts from both models with and without DA suggest the superiority of the WRF model in forecasting more accurately the occurred precipitation over the simulation domain, even for the downscaling run. 相似文献
15.
GU Jianfeng Qingnong XIAO Ying-Hwa KUO Dale M. BARKER XUE Jishan MA Xiaoxing 《大气科学进展》2005,22(3):415-427
Using the recently developed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3DVAR and the WRF model, numerical experiments are conducted for the initialization and simulation of typhoon Rusa (2002).The observational data used in the WRF 3DVAR are conventional Global Telecommunications System (GTS) data and Korean Automatic Weather Station (AWS) surface observations. The Background Error Statistics (BES) via the National Meteorological Center (NMC) method has two different resolutions, that is, a 210-km horizontal grid space from the NCEP global model and a 10-km horizontal resolution from Korean operational forecasts. To improve the performance of the WRF simulation initialized from the WRF 3DVAR analyses, the scale-lengths used in the horizontal background error covariances via recursive filter are tuned in terms of the WRF 3DVAR control variables, streamfunction, velocity potential, unbalanced pressure and specific humidity. The experiments with respect to different background error statistics and different observational data indicate that the subsequent 24-h the WRF model forecasts of typhoon Rusa‘s track and precipitation are significantly impacted upon the initial fields. Assimilation of the AWS data with the tuned background error statistics obtains improved predictions of the typhoon track and its precipitation. 相似文献
16.
两种样本生成方法对DRP-4DVar同化方法性能影响的比较及分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
降维投影四维变分同化方法(DRP-4DVar)利用历史预报的集合来统计背景误差协方差,并将分析变量投影到样本空间下求解代价函数,因而集合样本的质量对DRP-4DVar同化方法的性能有着重要影响.文中尝试使用三维变分(3DVar)控制变量的扰动方法来产生集合样本,并与原来的历史预报扰动方法做比较.历史预报扰动样本具有随流... 相似文献
17.
同化多普勒雷达风资料的两种方法比较 总被引：11，自引：5，他引：11
以美国新近研发的天气研究预报模式(WRF)配置的三维变分同化系统WRF 3D-Var为平台,比较了两种不同的同化多普勒雷达径向风资料的方法。一种是WRF 3D-Var系统现有的径向风资料直接同化方法;另一种是首先用两步变分法由多普勒资料反演出水平风,再同化反演风场。针对2003年7月4~5日的一次淮河暴雨过程进行的同化试验结果表明,同化了雷达风资料后得到的水平风场包含了更多的中尺度特征;从降水预报评分和预报的雷达回波来看,两种方法都能够明显改进降水预报,这种正作用能维持6 h左右;相对而言,同化反演的水平风场的效果略优于直接同化雷达径向风的效果。 相似文献
18.
自动站资料在WRF 3DVAR中的同化敏感性试验 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为了了解国家级地面自动观测站不同观测要素对数值预报作用,利用WRF三维变分同化系统对自动站资料的不同观测要素开展同化＆预报试验。两个月的数值预报检验结果表明：1）只同化自动站温度观测对位势高度、温度和相对湿度场预报的影响作用最大,且主要为负作用,而同化气压或风向风速观测对上述要素预报影响作用比同化温度小,但会改善位势高度预报和部分温度预报,对相对湿度预报改善作用不明显;2）对于降水预报,同化风向风速方案的评分结果最差,同化温度的方案次之,同化气压的方案可以改善24h降水预报结果。由此看出用WRF 3DVAR同化地面观测资料时,气压观测十分重要,同时也说明要想用好地面观测资料,让其为数值预报提高发挥最大作用仍需开展很多研究工作。 相似文献
19.
The present study is conducted to verify the short-range forecasts from mesoscale model version5 (MM5)/weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over the Indian region and to examine the impact of assimilation of quick scatterometer (QSCAT) near surface winds, spectral sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) wind speed and total precipitable water (TPW) on the forecasts by these models using their three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme for a 1-month period during July 2006. The control (without satellite data assimilation) as well as 3D-Var sensitivity experiments (with assimilating satellite data) using MM5/WRF were made for 48 h starting daily at 0000 UTC July 2006. The control run is analyzed for the intercomparison of MM5/WRF short-range forecasts and is also used as a baseline for assessing the MM5/WRF 3D-Var satellite data sensitivity experiments. As compared to the observation, the MM5 (WRF) control simulations strengthened (weakened) the cross equatorial flow over southern Arabian sea near peninsular India. The forecasts from MM5 and WRF showed a warm and moist bias at lower and upper levels with a cold bias at the middle level, which shows that the convective schemes of these models may be too active during the simulation. The forecast errors in predicted wind, temperature and humidity at different levels are lesser in WRF as compared to MM5, except the temperature prediction at lower level. The rainfall pattern and prediction skill from day 1 and day 2 forecasts by WRF is superior to MM5. The spatial distribution of forecast impact for wind, temperature, and humidity from 1-month assimilation experiments during July 2006 demonstrated that on average, for 24 and 48-h forecasts, the satellite data improved the MM5/WRF initial condition, so that model errors in predicted meteorological fields got reduced. Among the experiments, MM5/WRF wind speed prediction is most benefited from QSCAT surface wind and SSM/I TPW assimilation while temperature and humidity prediction is mostly improved due to latter. The largest improvement in MM5/WRF rainfall prediction is due to the assimilation of SSM/I TPW. The assimilation of SSM/I wind speed alone in MM5/WRF degraded the humidity and rainfall prediction. In summary the assimilation of satellite data showed similar impact on MM5/WRF prediction; largest improvement due to SSM/I TPW and degradation due to SSM/I wind speed. 相似文献
20.
大气温湿度廓线是大气重要参数,在数值天气预报及天气预警中具有重要的应用价值。为获得高精度的大气温度与水汽混合比廓线数据,研究了基于Metop-A/IASI红外高光谱资料的大气温度与水汽混合比廓线变分反演方法。利用IASI高光谱传感器温度和水汽探测通道资料,结合CRTM模式和WRF模式预报技术,使用一维变分方法,研究了卫星资料质量控制、背景误差协方差本地化、观测误差协方差计算等方法,构建了大气温度及水汽混合比廓线变分反演系统,并在北京、青岛、沈阳3个地区开展了反演试验。以探空为标准的反演结果对比显示,使用WRF模式预报值作为背景场,温度的平均误差绝对值小于0.6 K,均方根误差为0.89 K;水汽混合比的平均误差绝对值小于0.021 g/kg,均方根误差为0.02 g/kg。试验结果表明:基于一维变分方法,可以利用Metop-A/IASI红外高光谱资料进行大气温度与水汽混合比廓线高精度探测。 相似文献