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1.
利用天津近30年来的逐年电力负荷数据以及2002-2005年逐时电力负荷资料,分析了天津电力负荷的变化特征,研究了电力负荷与气象因子的关系.结果表明:近30年来,天津电力负荷的长期趋势基本受当地GDP的影响,气温等气象因子的作用不明显;在季节和日尺度上,气温的影响十分显著,7、8月气温每上升1℃,气象负荷将增加120MW左右;除气温的影响外,夏季、初秋相对湿度对电力负荷的影响非常显著,此外,4月、6月、7月和12月还得考虑风的影响;一般来说,夏季最高气温在30℃以上,平均相对湿度大于65％时,才可能出现极端电力负荷. 相似文献
2.
利用2006年1月—2010年9月北京市逐日整点电力负荷和逐日气象资料,采用数理统计方法定量分析了北京市夏季电力负荷逐日变率与主要气象因子的关系。结果表明:与最大电力负荷显著相关的气象因子为温度、风速和空气湿度,其中与日最低气温相关性最高 (相关系数为0.65,显著性水平为0.001),当日最低气温高于18℃(或日最高气温高于26℃) 时,其对日最大电力负荷的1℃效应量约为39.7×107W。相对于温度单个因子,同时反映温度和相对湿度综合作用的闷热指数与最大电力负荷的关系更为密切。 相似文献
3.
利用2015-2017年宜昌市逐小时电力负荷资料及对应时段地面气象观测站数据,分析宜昌电力负荷的变化特征,研究气象敏感负荷与气象因子的关系,基于主要气象敏感因子通过逐步回归法建立宜昌电力负荷预报方法。结果表明:宜昌电力负荷呈逐年增长的趋势,夏季和冬季是一年中电力负荷高峰期,年最大电力负荷出现在夏季,年均增幅达11.8%,年最小电力负荷出现在春节期间;气温对气象敏感负荷影响最大,随着日平均气温T升高逐日气象负荷率先减小后增加,当T为17℃时,气象负荷率最小,从而划分了4个变化阶段:17℃≤T<26℃、T≥26℃、7℃≤T<17℃、T<7℃,基于各阶级主要气象敏感因子分别建立电力负荷回归预报方程,经检验,在实际应用中预报相对误差绝对值为3.8%,基本能够满足电力部门负荷预测的精度要求。后期可结合人工智能算法,进一步提高宜昌电力气象负荷预测的稳定性和准确性。 相似文献
4.
根据新疆尉犁县气象站2008年4-10月非结冰期水面蒸发量及相关常规气象观测资料,利用灰色关联分析法研究了不同时间尺度下各气象要素对水面蒸发量的影响程度。结果表明：在不同计算尺度下,水汽压、相对湿度与日照时数这三气象因素的影响程度排序无变化,说明计算尺度对其影响较小;温度（包括平均气温、最高气温与最低气温）与风速因素对蒸发量的影响程度随着研究尺度的变化而变化,其中平均温度与平均风速这两因素随着研究尺度的增大而影响程度随之增大;构成研究区域水面蒸发主要影响因素的是温度因素（包括平均气温、最高气温与最低气温）与风速因素。研究结果为区域水资源的规划、优化调度与管理提供了重要参考。 相似文献
5.
基于2017—2020年石家庄市逐15分钟电力负荷及同期气象资料,计算人体舒适度指标有效温度和温湿指数,考虑基准负荷存在周期性和增长性,提出采用灰色模型GM(1,1)并结合滤波法、相关分析等方法,建立日峰降温电力负荷与人体舒适度指标分段回归模型。结果表明:石家庄电力负荷具有明显的逐年增长趋势;剥离出的日降温负荷曲线呈“W”型分布;分别对模型进行一次、二次和分段函数拟合,对3种预测模型进行检验发现分段函数预测精度较高,平均相对误差在4.8%～5.2%,有效温度和温湿指数的分段函数误差在-10%～10%所占比例分别为88.1%和90.5%;考虑了温度、湿度和风速的有效温度较温湿指数的夏季日峰降温电力负荷预测模型预测准确率更高,回归模型分段点为26.2℃,对电网“迎峰度夏”时期电力调度具有参考价值。 相似文献
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《干旱气象》2017,(5)
利用2010年2月1日至2013年8月31日西安市逐小时电力负荷资料及对应时段地面气象观测站数据,分析西安电力负荷的变化特征,研究气象敏感负荷与主要气象因子的关系。结果表明:电力负荷在不同时间尺度上呈现出不同变化特征,夏季和冬季是一年中电力负荷的高峰期;极端电力负荷出现在夏冬两季,其中夏季极端电力负荷出现频率占总数的74%;相比于其他气象因子,气温与气象敏感负荷的相关性最强,在5—9月呈正相关,10月至次年4月呈负相关,逐日气象负荷率随日平均气温的增加先逐渐减小,再逐渐增加,当日平均气温为17℃时,气象负荷率最小;日最高气温34℃为夏季引起西安市最大电力负荷增加的初始气温敏感值,36℃为强气温敏感值,38℃为极强气温敏感值,日最低气温-2℃为冬季引起西安市最大电力负荷增加的初始气温敏感值,-4℃为强气温敏感值,-7℃为极强气温敏感值。 相似文献
7.
通过温度、相对湿度和风速等气象因素与不同粒径大气气溶胶粒子数浓度和质量浓度的相关性,分析气象条件对大气气溶胶的影响和作用机制。结果表明：气象因素对0.2—0.6 μm的气溶胶影响最大。温度升高既有利于增强大气扩散作用也有利于二次气溶胶生成,因此温度与超细气溶胶(小于0.1μm)呈正相关性,而与粒径较大的气溶胶呈负相关。风速主要影响气溶胶的水平扩散,对超细气溶胶无显著影响,而与粗粒径气溶胶呈负相关。相对湿度会促进超细气溶胶的聚积,使之生成较大粒径气溶胶。因此相对湿度与超细气溶胶呈较强的负相关,而与较粗粒径气溶胶呈正相关。 相似文献
8.
利用石家庄地区1990~2013年电力污闪事故发生的详细资料,归纳整理出污闪发生的一般规律,结合诱发污闪发生的天气现象和气象要素,综合在不同气象条件下污闪发生的可能性大小,对其进行分级,给出污闪发生级别的综合预测标准,从而判定预测电力污闪发生的气象指数,并提出必要安全预防措施。结果表明:当气温15.6℃,相对湿度45%,风速4.8 m/s时天气晴朗,不会发生污闪;在相对湿度≥80%,风速≤2.0 m/s时,气温在-7.5~7.5℃时出现雾,气温在-4.5~4.5℃时出现积雪或结冰,极易发生污闪;在相对湿度≥80%,风速≤2.0 m/s,气温在-4.5~4.5℃时出现液态、混合或固态降水、轻雾,容易发生污闪。 相似文献
9.
利用2003年盐城市滨海县气象站自动站与人工站平行观测期间的对比资料,分析了两套观测系统相对湿度数据的差异,讨论了相对湿度、环境温度、天气状况和环境风速与2种方式观测的相对湿度差之间的关系。结果表明:滨海县自动观测与人工观测的相对湿度数据存在一定的差异,但在允许精度范围内,约93%的数据集中在-4%~4%之间,误差超过±2%的样本集中在相对湿度小于70%的区域内;随着月份的变化,相对湿度差的分布呈现"W"形波动趋势;随气温升高,呈"V"形变化趋势,尤其是高温下自动站偏干现象明显;湿度增大或有降水产生时,有偏正的趋势;环境风速增大时,有减小的趋势,自动站相对湿度观测值偏大。 相似文献
10.
利用广州白云机场2005-2017年的大气能见度、相对湿度、风速、气温等要素的逐时观测资料,结合花都花东站2012-2017年PM2.5浓度的逐时观测数据,分析了近年来白云机场能见度的变化特征,探究了能见度与气象要素、大气污染物之间的关系。结果表明:2005-2017年白云机场能见度呈逐年增大趋势,低能见度出现次数总体呈减少趋势。2-4月是机场低能见度时期,7月能见度最大。能见度日变化显著,最低能见度通常出现在清晨,午后明显好转。白云机场能见度与相对湿度、PM2.5浓度呈负相关关系,与风速、气温成正相关关系,其中PM2.5浓度对能见度的影响最明显。当相对湿度小于80%时,能见度下降得较为缓慢;而当相对湿度超过80%时,能见度急剧降低。相对湿度越大,出现低能见度所需的PM2.5浓度值就越小。地面风速在0~4 m·s-1时,相对湿度越大,能见度随风速的增长趋势越显著。 相似文献
11.
The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics. 相似文献
12.
Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d. 相似文献
13.
Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region. 相似文献
14.
Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms. 相似文献
15.
Yuepeng PAN Mengna GU Yuexin HE Dianming WU Chunyan LIU Linlin SONG Shili TIAN Xuemei Lü Yang SUN Tao SONG Wendell W. WALTERS Xuejun LIU Nicholas A. MARTIN Qianqian ZHANG Yunting FANG Valerio FERRACCI Yuesi WANG 《大气科学进展》2020,37(9):933-938
正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on 相似文献
16.
《大气和海洋科学快报》2013,(1):67
正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.SUBMISSIONAll submitted 相似文献
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<正>With the support of specialized funds for national science institutions,the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration set up in October 2008 an experiment base for marine meteorology and a number of observation systems for the coastal boundary layer,air-sea flux,marine environmental elements,and basic meteorological elements at Bohe town,Maoming city,Guangdong province,in the northern part of the South China Sea. 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,7(6):F0003-F0003
AIMS AND SCOPE
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献
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《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(5):F0003-F0003
AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） pub- lishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmos- phere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome. 相似文献