共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Arti B. Bandgar J. S. Chowdary C. Gnanaseelan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,118(1-2):69-79
The Northwest Pacific (NWP) circulation (subtropical high) is an important component of the East Asian summer monsoon system. During summer (June–August), anomalous lower tropospheric anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation appears over NWP in some years, which is an indicative of stronger (weaker) than normal subtropical high. The anomalous NWP cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation years are associated with negative (positive) precipitation anomalies over most of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) region. This indicates concurrent relationship between NWP circulation and convection over the ISMR region. Dry wind advection from subtropical land regions and moisture divergence over the southern peninsular India during the NWP cyclonic circulation years are mainly responsible for the negative rainfall anomalies over the ISMR region. In contrast, during anticyclonic years, warm north Indian Ocean and moisture divergence over the head Bay of Bengal-Gangetic Plain region support moisture instability and convergence in the southern flank of ridge region, which favors positive rainfall over most of the ISMR region. The interaction between NWP circulation (anticyclonic or cyclonic) and ISMR and their predictability during these anomalous years are examined in the present study. Seven coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center and their multimodel ensemble mean skills in predicting the seasonal rainfall and circulation anomalies over the ISMR region and NWP for the period 1982–2004 are assessed. Analysis reveals that three (two) out of seven models are unable to predict negative (positive) precipitation anomalies over the Indian subcontinent during the NWP cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation years at 1-month lead (model is initialized on 1 May). The limited westward extension of the NWP circulation and misrepresentation of SST anomalies over the north Indian Ocean are found to be the main reasons for the poor skill (of some models) in rainfall prediction over the Indian subcontinent. This study demonstrates the importance of the NWP circulation variability in predicting summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia. Considering the predictability of the NWP circulation, the current study provides an insight into the predictability of ISMR. Long lead prediction of the ISMR associated with anomalous NWP circulation is also discussed. 相似文献
2.
The latest version of the state-of-the-art global land–atmosphere–ocean coupled climate forecast system of NCEP has shown considerable improvement in various aspects of the Indian summer monsoon. However, climatological mean dry bias over the Indian sub-continent is further increased as compared to the previous version. Here we have attempted to link this dry bias with climatological mean bias in the Eurasian winter/spring snow, which is one of the important predictors of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Simulation of interannual variability of the Eurasian snow and its teleconnection with the ISMR are quite reasonable in the model. Using composite analysis it is shown that a positive snow anomaly, which is comparable to the systematic bias in the model, results into significant decrease in the summer monsoon rainfall over the central India and part of the Equatorial Indian Ocean. Decrease in the summer monsoon rainfall is also found to be linked with weaker northward propagation of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). A barotropic stationary wave triggered by positive snow anomaly over west Eurasia weakens the upper level monsoon circulation, which in turn reduces the zonal wind shear and hence, weakens the northward propagation of summer monsoon ISOs. A sensitivity experiment by reducing snow fall over Eurasian region causes decrease in winter and spring snow depth, which in turn leads to decrease in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Results from the sensitivity experiment corroborate with those of composite analysis based on long free run. This study suggests that further improvements in the snow parametrization schemes as well as Arctic sea ice are needed to reduce the Eurasian snow bias during winter/spring, which may reduce the dry bias over Indian sub-continent and hence predictability aspect of the model. 相似文献
3.
Monsoon precipitation in the AMIP runs 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
We present an analysis of the seasonal precipitation associated with the African, Indian and the Australian-Indonesian monsoon
and the interannual variation of the Indian monsoon simulated by 30 atmospheric general circulation models undertaken as a
special diagnostic subproject of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The seasonal migration of the major
rainbelt observed over the African region, is reasonably well simulated by almost all the models. The Asia West Pacific region
is more complex because of the presence of warm oceans equatorward of heated continents. Whereas some models simulate the
observed seasonal migration of the primary rainbelt, in several others this rainbelt remains over the equatorial oceans in
all seasons. Thus, the models fall into two distinct classes on the basis of the seasonal variation of the major rainbelt
over the Asia West Pacific sector, the first (class I) are models with a realistic simulation of the seasonal migration and
the major rainbelt over the continent in the boreal summer; and the second (class II) are models with a smaller amplitude
of seasonal migration than observed. The mean rainfall pattern over the Indian region for July-August (the peak monsoon months)
is even more complex because, in addition to the primary rainbelt over the Indian monsoon zone (the monsoon rainbelt) and
the secondary one over the equatorial Indian ocean, another zone with significant rainfall occurs over the foothills of Himalayas
just north of the monsoon zone. Eleven models simulate the monsoon rainbelt reasonably realistically. Of these, in the simulations
of five belonging to class I, the monsoon rainbelt over India in the summer is a manifestation of the seasonal migration of
the planetary scale system. However in those belonging to class II it is associated with a more localised system. In several
models, the oceanic rainbelt dominates the continental one. On the whole, the skill in simulation of excess/deficit summer
monsoon rainfall over the Indian region is found to be much larger for models of class I than II, particularly for the ENSO
associated seasons. Thus, the classification based on seasonal mean patterns is found to be useful for interpreting the simulation
of interannual variation. The mean rainfall pattern of models of class I is closer to the observed and has a higher pattern
correlation coefficient than that of class II. This supports Sperber and Palmer’s (1996) result of the association of better
simulation of interannual variability with better simulation of the mean rainfall pattern. The hypothesis, that the skill
of simulation of the interannual variation of the all-India monsoon rainfall in association with ENSO depends upon the skill
of simulation of the seasonal variation over the Asia West Pacific sector, is supported by a case in which we have two versions
of the model where NCEP1 is in class II and NCEP2 is in class I. The simulation of the interannual variation of the local
response over the central Pacific as well as the all-India monsoon rainfall are good for NCEP2 and poor for NCEP1. Our results
suggest that when the model climatology is reasonably close to observations, to achieve a realistic simulation of the interannual
variation of all-India monsoon rainfall associated with ENSO, the focus should be on improvement of the simulation of the
seasonal variation over the Asia West Pacific sector rather than further improvement of the simulation of the mean rainfall
pattern over the Indian region.
Received: 2 June 1997 / Accepted: 8 January 1998 相似文献
4.
Ashwini Kulkarni 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,109(3-4):447-459
Though over a century long period (1871–2010) the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) series is stable, it does depict the decreasing tendency during the last three decades of the 20th century. Around mid-1970s, there was a major climate shift over the globe. The average all-India surface air temperature also shows consistent rise after 1975. This unequivocal warming may have some impact on the weakening of ISMR. The reduction in seasonal rainfall is mainly contributed by the deficit rainfall over core monsoon zone which happens to be the major contributor to seasonal rainfall amount. During the period 1976–2004, the deficit (excess) monsoons have become more (less) frequent. The monsoon circulation is observed to be weakened. The mid-tropospheric gradient responsible for the maintenance of monsoon circulation has been observed to be weakened significantly as compared to 1901–1975. The warming over western equatorial Indian Ocean as well as equatorial Pacific is more pronounced after mid-70s and the co-occurrence of positive Indian Ocean Dipole Mode events and El Nino events might have reinforced the large deficit anomalies of Indian summer monsoon rainfall during 1976–2004. All these factors may contribute to the weakening of ISMR. 相似文献
5.
Response of the Indian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall to seasonal snow depth anomaly over Eurasia 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Several observational and modeling studies indicate that the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is inversely related to the Eurasian snow extent and depth. The other two important surface boundary conditions which influence the ISMR are the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) to a large extent and the Indian Ocean SST to some extent. In the present study, observed Soviet snow depth data and Indian rainfall data for the period 1951–1994 have been statistically analyzed and results show that 57% of heavy snow events and 24% of light snow events over west Eurasia are followed by deficient and excess ISMR respectively. Out of all the extreme monsoon years, care has been taken to identify those when Eurasian snow was the most dominant surface forcing to influence ISMR. During the years of high(low) Eurasian snow amounts in spring/winter followed by deficient(excess) ISMR, atmospheric fields such as temperature, wind, geopotential height, velocity potential and stream function based on NCEP/NCAR reanalyses have been examined in detail to study the influence of Eurasian snow on the midlatitude circulation regime and hence on the monsoon circulation. Results show that because of the west Eurasian snow anomalies, the midlatitude circulations in winter through spring show significant changes in the upper and lower level wind, geopotential height, velocity potential and stream function fields. Such changes in the large-scale circulation pattern may be interpreted as precursors to weak/strong monsoon circulation and deficient/excess ISMR. The upper level velocity potential difference fields between the high and low snow years indicate that with the advent of spring, the winter anomalous convergence over the Indian region gradually becomes weaker and gives way to anomalous divergence that persists through the summer monsoon season. Also the upper level anomalous divergence centre shifts from over the Northern Hemisphere and equator to the Southern Hemisphere over the Indian Ocean and Australia. 相似文献
6.
R. Krishnan Suchithra Sundaram P. Swapna Vinay Kumar D. C. Ayantika M. Mujumdar 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(1-2):1-17
This paper examines an issue concerning the simulation of anomalously wet Indian summer monsoons like 1994 which co-occurred with strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean. Contrary to observations it has been noticed that standalone atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) forced with observed SST boundary condition, consistently depicted a decrease of the summer monsoon rainfall during 1994 over the Indian region. Given the ocean?Catmosphere coupling during IOD events, we have examined whether the failure of standalone AGCM simulations in capturing wet Indian monsoons like 1994 can be remedied by including a simple form of coupling that allows the monsoon circulation to dynamically interact with the IOD anomalies. With this view, we have performed a suite of simulations by coupling an AGCM to a slab-ocean model with spatially varying mixed-layer-depth (MLD) specified from observations for the 1994 IOD; as well as four other cases (1983, 1997, 2006, 2007). The specification of spatially varying MLD from observations allows us to constrain the model to observed IOD conditions. It is seen that the inclusion of coupling significantly improves the large-scale circulation response by strengthening the monsoon cross-equatorial flow; leading to precipitation enhancement over the subcontinent and rainfall decrease over south-eastern tropical Indian Ocean??in a manner broadly consistent with observations. A plausible physical mechanism is suggested to explain the monsoonal response in the coupled frame-work. These results warrant the need for improved monsoon simulations with fully coupled models to be able to better capture the observed monsoon interannual variability. 相似文献
7.
Signature of a southern hemisphere extratropical influence on the summer monsoon over India 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
The weakening relationship of El Nino with Indian summer monsoon reported in recent years is a major issue to be addressed. The altered relationships of Indian monsoon with various parameters excite to search for other dominant modes of variability that can influence the precipitation pattern. Since the Indian summer monsoon circulation originates in the oceanic region of the southern hemisphere, the present study investigates the association of southern extratropical influence on Indian summer monsoon using rainfall and reanalysis parameters. The effect of Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index during the month of June associated with the onset phase of Indian summer monsoon and that during July–August linked with the active phase of the monsoon were analysed separately for a period from 1951 to 2008. The extra-tropical influence over the monsoon is illustrated by using rainfall, specific humidity, vertical velocity, circulation and moisture transport. The June high SAM index enhances the lower level wind flow during the onset phase of monsoon over Indian sub-continent. The area of significant positive correlation between precipitation and SAM in June also shows enhancement in both ascending motion and specific humidity during the strong phase of June SAM. On the other hand, the June high SAM index adversely affects July–August monsoon over Indian subcontinent. The lower level wind flow weakens due to the high SAM. Enhancement of divergence and reduction in moisture transport results in the Indian monsoon region due to the activity of this high southern annular mode. The effect is more pronounced over the southwest region where the precipitation spell has high activity during the period. Significant correlation exists between SAM and ISMR, even after removing the effect of El Nino. It indicates that the signals of Indian summer monsoon characteristics can be envisaged to a certain extend using the June SAM index. 相似文献
8.
Dutta Ushnanshu Chaudhari Hemantkumar S. Hazra Anupam Pokhrel Samir Saha Subodh Kumar Veeranjaneyulu Chinta 《Climate Dynamics》2020,55(9-10):2377-2403
Climate Dynamics - The study explores the role of ice-phase microphysics and convection for the better simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and monsoon intraseasonal oscillation... 相似文献
9.
D. S. Pai 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2004,86(3-4):143-157
Summary Observational data are used to explore the relationship between surface air temperature anomaly gradients and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The meridional temperature anomaly gradient across Eurasia during January directed towards equator (pole) is a very good precursor of subsequent excess (deficient) Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). This gradient directed towards equator (pole) indicates below (above) normal blocking activity over Eurasia, which leads to less (more) than normal southward penetration of dry and cold mid latitude westerlies over the Indian monsoon region, which ultimately strengthens (weakens) the normal monsoon circulation. These findings suggest a mechanism for the weakening of relationship between El Niño and ISMR.Though there is a strong fundamental association between El Niño (warm ENSO) and deficient Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), this relationship was weak during the period 1921–1940 and the recent decade (1991–1998). During the El Niño years of 1921–1940 and 1901–1998, the meridional temperature anomaly gradient across Eurasia (Eurasian forcing) during January was directed towards equator. On the other hand, during the El Niño years of 1901–1920 and 1941–1990 this gradient was directed towards pole. Thus during 1921–1940 and 1991–1998, the adverse impact of El Niño on Indian monsoon was reduced by the favorable Eurasian forcing resulting in the weak association between El Niño and ISMR. This finding disagrees with the hypothesis of winter warming over the Eurasian continent as the reason for the observed weakening of this relationship during recent decade. 相似文献
10.
BCC大气环流模式对亚澳季风年际变率主导模态的模拟 总被引：8，自引：3，他引：5
利用观测海温驱动下的北京气候中心大气环流模式(BCC-AGCM)1979-2000年的模拟数据,从亚澳季风(A-AM)年际变率的角度,对该模式的性能进行了分析.通过季节依赖的EOF分析方法(SEOF)得到观测第1模态,与ENSO从暖位相向冷位相的转变相联系,并伴随东南印度洋和西北太平洋的降水异常随季节变化.该模态具有准2a和4-6a周期的谱峰.分析结果显示,BCC模式可以很好地模拟出第1模态的时间变化特征,及其与ENSO位相的同步关系.但是,模式模拟的降水空间型与观测存在偏差,这主要是由于模式对环流场模拟的偏差造成的,具体表现在西北太平洋(WNP)反气旋和南印度洋(SIO)反气旋的季节锁相模拟偏差.前者与模式模拟的环流场整体偏东有关,后者是由于SIO反气旋的发展和衰亡过程受印度洋局地海气相瓦作用影响,而单独大气模式则无法合理地反映这一过程.另外,模式模拟的第一模态降水空间型在夏季效果较差,原因在于模式模拟的夏季平均降水量存在偏差,尤其是东南印度洋的降水量模拟偏少.进一步分析表明,这可能与对流参数化方案的选择有关. 相似文献
11.
Annalisa Bracco Fred Kucharski Franco Molteni Wilco Hazeleger Camiel Severijns 《Climate Dynamics》2007,28(5):441-460
This study investigates how accurately the interannual variability over the Indian Ocean basin and the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can be simulated by different modelling strategies. With a hierarchy of models, from an atmospherical general circulation model (AGCM) forced by observed SST, to a coupled model with the ocean component limited to the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, the role of heat fluxes and of interactive coupling is analyzed. Whenever sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian basin are created by the coupled model, the inverse relationship between the ENSO index and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is recovered, and it is preserved if the atmospherical model is forced by the SSTs created by the coupled model. If the ocean model domain is limited to the Indian Ocean, changes in the Walker circulation over the Pacific during El-Niño years induce a decrease of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. However, the observed correlation between ENSO and the Indian Ocean zonal mode (IOZM) is not properly modelled and the two indices are not significantly correlated, independently on season. Whenever the ocean domain extends to the Pacific, and ENSO can impact both the atmospheric circulation and the ocean subsurface in the equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean, modelled precipitation patterns associated both to ENSO and to the IOZM closely resemble the observations. 相似文献
12.
Summary In this paper, we have tried to understand the ENSO, MJO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall relationships from observation as well as from coupled model results. It was the general feeling that El-Niño years are the deficient in Indian monsoon rainfall and converse being the case for the La-Niña years. Recent papers by several authors noted the failure of this relationship. We find that the model output does confirm a breakdown of this relationship. In this study we have seen that a statistically defined modified Indian summer monsoon rainfall (MISMR) index, a linearly regressed ISMR index and dynamical Webster index (WBSI), shows an inverse relationship with ENSO index during the entire period of integration (1987 to 1999). It is also seen from this study that the amplification of the MJO signals were large and the ENSO signals were less pronounced during the years of above normal ISMR. The MJO signal amplitudes were small and ENSO signals were strong during the years of deficient ISMR. It has been noted that here is a time lag between the MJO and ENSO signal in terms of their modulation aspect. If time lag is added with the ENSO signal then both signals maintain the amplitude modulation theory. A hypothesis is being proposed here to define a relationship between MJO and ENSO signals for the entire period between 1987 and 1999.Received September 18, 2002; revised November 22, 2002; accepted December 20, 2002
Published online: May 8, 2003 相似文献
13.
Summary The Regional Climate Model RegCM3 has been used to examine its suitability in simulating the Indian summer monsoon circulation
features and associated rainfall. The model is integrated at 55 km horizontal resolution over a South Asia domain for the
period April–September of the years 1993 to 1996. The characteristics of wind at 850 hPa and 200 hPa, temperature at 500 hPa,
surface pressure and rainfall simulated by the model over the Indian region are examined for two convective schemes (a Kuo-type
and a mass flux scheme). The monsoon circulation features simulated by RegCM3 are compared with those of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
and the simulated rainfall is validated against observations from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and the
India Meteorological Department (IMD). Validation of the wind and temperature fields shows that the use of the Grell convection
scheme yields results close to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Similarly, the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) simulated by
the model with the Grell convection scheme is close to the corresponding observed values. In order to test the model response
to land surface changes such as the Tibetan snow depth, a sensitivity study has also been conducted. For such sensitivity
experiment, NIMBUS-7 SMMR snow depth data in spring are used as initial conditions in the RegCM3. Preliminary results indicate
that RegCM3 is very much sensitive to Tibetan snow. The model simulated Indian summer monsoon circulation becomes weaker and
the associated rainfall is reduced by about 30% with the introduction of 10 cm of snow over the Tibetan region in the month
of April. 相似文献
14.
Potential future changes in the Indian summer monsoon due to greenhouse warming: analysis of mechanisms in a global time-slice experiment 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this study the potential impact of the anticipated increase in the greenhouse gas concentrations on different aspects of the Indian summer monsoon is investigated, focusing on the role of the mechanisms leading to these changes. Both changes in the mean aspects of the Indian summer monsoon and changes in its interannual variability are considered. This is done on the basis of a global time-slice experiment being performed with the ECHAM4 AGCM at a high horizontal resolution of T106. The experiment consists of two 30-year simulations, one representing the present-day climate (period: 1970–1999) and one representing the future climate (period: 2060–2089). The time-slice experiment predicts an intensification of the mean rainfall associated with the Indian summer monsoon due to the general warming, while the future changes in the large-scale flow indicate a weakening of the monsoon circulation in the upper troposphere and only little change in the lower troposphere. The intensification of the monsoon rainfall in the Indian region is related to an intensification of the atmospheric moisture transport into this region. The weakening of the monsoon flow is caused by a pronounced warming of the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and the associated alterations of the Walker circulation. A future increase of the temperature difference between the Indian Ocean and central India as well as a future reduction of the Eurasian snow cover in spring would, by themselves, lead to a strengthening of the monsoon flow in the future. These two mechanisms compensate for the weakening of the low-level monsoon flow induced by the warming of the tropical Pacific. The time-slice experiment also predicts a future increase of the interannual variability of both the rainfall associated with the Indian summer monsoon and of the large-scale flow. A major part of this increase is accounted for by enhanced interannual variability of the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. 相似文献
15.
Projected changes in South Asian summer monsoon by multi-model global warming experiments 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
S. S. Sabade Ashwini Kulkarni R. H. Kripalani 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,103(3-4):543-565
South Asian summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall simulation and its potential future changes are evaluated in a multi-model ensemble of global coupled climate models outputs under World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (WCRP CMIP3) dataset. The response of South Asian summer monsoon to a transient increase in future anthropogenic radiative forcing is investigated for two time slices, middle (2031–2050) and end of the twenty-first century (2081–2100), in the non-mitigated Special Report on Emission Scenarios B1, A1B and A2 .There is large inter-model variability in the simulation of spatial characteristics of seasonal monsoon precipitation. Ten out of the 25 models are able to simulate space–time characteristics of the South Asian monsoon precipitation reasonably well. The response of these selected ten models has been examined for projected changes in seasonal monsoon rainfall. The multi-model ensemble of these ten models projects a significant increase in monsoon precipitation with global warming. The substantial increase in precipitation is observed over western equatorial Indian Ocean and southern parts of India. However, the monsoon circulation weakens significantly under all the three climate change experiments. Possible mechanisms for the projected increase in precipitation and for precipitation–wind paradox have been discussed. The surface temperature over Asian landmass increases in pre-monsoon months due to global warming and heat low over northwest India intensifies. The dipole snow configuration over Eurasian continent strengthens in warmer atmosphere, which is conducive for the enhancement in precipitation over Indian landmass. No notable changes have been projected in the El Niño–Monsoon relationship, which is useful for predicting interannual variations of the monsoon. 相似文献
16.
We assess the ability of individual models (single-model ensembles) and the multi-model ensemble (MME) in the European Union-funded ENSEMBLES project to simulate the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; specifically in 10–20-day and 30–50-day frequency bands) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. This assessment is made on the basis of the dynamical linkages identified from the analysis of observations in a companion study to this work. In general, all models show reasonable skill in simulating the active and break cycles of the 30–50-day ISOs over the Indian summer monsoon region. This skill is closely associated with the proper reproduction of both the northward propagation of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the variations of monsoon circulation in this band. However, the models do not manage to correctly simulate the eastward propagation of the 30–50-day ISOs in the western/central tropical Pacific and the eastward extension of the ITCZ in a northwest to southeast tilt. This limitation is closely associated with a limited capacity of models to accurately reproduce the magnitudes of intraseasonal anomalies of both the ITCZ in the Asian tropical summer monsoon regions and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Poor reproduction of the activity of the western Pacific subtropical high on intraseasonal time scales also amplify this limitation. Conversely, the models make good reproduction of the WG 10–20-day ISOs. This success is closely related to good performance of the models in the representation of the northward propagation of the ITCZ, which is partially promoted by local air–sea interactions in the Indian Ocean in this higher-frequency band. Although the feature of westward propagation is generally represented in the simulated BoB 10–20-day ISOs, the air–sea interactions in the Indian Ocean are spuriously active in the models. This leads to active WG rainfall, which is not present in the observed BoB 10–20-day ISOs. Further analysis indicates that the intraseasonal variability of the ISMR is generally underrepresented in the simulations. Skill of the MME in seasonal ISMR forecasting is strongly dependent on individual model performance. Therefore, in order to improve the model skill with respect to seasonal ISMR forecasting, we suggest it is necessary to better represent the robust dynamical links between the ISOs and the relevant circulation variations, as well as the proportion of intraseasonal variability in the individual models. 相似文献
17.
亚洲季风降水的多模式模拟结果分析 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
利用参加政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)第四次评估报告(AR4)的多个大气模式(包括中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室新发展的全球格点大气模式GAMIL)的AMIP-II(大气模式比较计划-II)积分的集合平均结果(MMEA),研究了当前大气模式对亚洲季风降水的平均模拟能力,同时也评估了GAMIL的模拟水平。对多年平均冬夏季降水的模拟研究发现:MMEA和GAMIL对冬季降水的模拟好于夏季。与以往的结果相比,MMEA对夏季印度洋和西太平洋地区降水的模拟改进不明显;部分模式能够模拟出夏季东亚副热带地区从中国东海到中太平洋的带状梅雨降水,但大部分模式的模拟强度还不够。可以看出GAMIL除了冬季印度洋和夏季菲律宾模拟的降水稍弱外,与MMEA的结果很接近。降水场的误差与环流场的误差对应。此外,作者还研究了降水的年际变化和季风爆发撤退过程的模拟能力。MMEA与观测在印度季风区降水的相关系数不如在东亚热带和东亚副热带季风区的好。各模式冬季的相关系数一般好于夏季,特别是东亚热带季风区冬季的相关系数普遍较高,而印度季风区夏季的相关系数普遍较低。MMEA对标准差的模拟并不总比单个模式的好。各个模式对东亚热带季风区冬季的降水距平同号率和降水距平百分率模拟得最好。季风爆发、撤退时降水推移的模拟也还有待于进一步提高。 相似文献
18.
The CNRM atmospheric general circulation model Arpege-Climat is relaxed towards atmospheric reanalyses outside the 10°S?C32°N 30°W?C50°E domain in order to disentangle the regional versus large-scale sources of climatological biases and interannual variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). On the one hand, the main climatological features of the monsoon, including the spatial distribution of summer precipitation, are only weakly improved by the nudging, thereby suggesting the regional origin of the Arpege-Climat biases. On the other hand, the nudging technique is relatively efficient to control the interannual variability of the WAM dynamics, though the impact on rainfall variability is less clear. Additional sensitivity experiments focusing on the strong 1994 summer monsoon suggest that the weak sensitivity of the model biases is not an artifact of the nudging design, but the evidence that regional physical processes are the main limiting factors for a realistic simulation of monsoon circulation and precipitation in the Arpege-Climat model. Sensitivity experiments to soil moisture boundary conditions are also conducted and highlight the relevance of land?Catmosphere coupling for the amplification of precipitation biases. Nevertheless, the land surface hydrology is not the main explanation for the model errors that are rather due to deficiencies in the atmospheric physics. The intraseasonal timescale and the model internal variability are discussed in a companion paper. 相似文献
19.
The modern Asian monsoon system exhibits strong interannual variation, which has profound environmental and economical impacts. It has been well-documented that the mean Asian monsoon state underwent significant changes in the Late Miocene (11–5 Ma ago). But how the interannual variability of the monsoon climate evolved during this period is still largely unknown. In this study, a long-term simulation of the Late Miocene with a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) at T31L19 resolution is used to explore the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) in the Late Miocene. The regional climate model COSMO–CLM with a higher spatial resolution (~1° × 1°) is further employed to better characterize the spatial patterns of these variations. Our results show that although the mean ISM circulation is weaker in the Late Miocene runs, its interannual variation is as strong as or even stronger than at present and the dominant periods (~2.6–2.7 years) are shorter than at present (~3.4–8.4 years). It is noticed that while the extratropical influence on the ISM variability is weaker-than-present, a persistent El Niño-Southern Oscillation with stronger-than-present interannual variability is observed in our Late Miocene run. This may have maintained a strong interannual variation of the ISM with a shorter period in the Late Miocene. Our findings do not only improve our understanding of the Asian monsoon evolution in the Late Miocene, but also shed light on the future changes in the interannual variability of the ISM. 相似文献
20.
This study provides a detailed analysis of the mid-Holocene to present-day precipitation change in the Asian monsoon region. We compare for the first time results of high resolution climate model simulations with a standardised set of mid-Holocene moisture reconstructions. Changes in the simulated summer monsoon characteristics (onset, withdrawal, length and associated rainfall) and the mechanisms causing the Holocene precipitation changes are investigated. According to the model, most parts of the Indian subcontinent received more precipitation (up to 5 mm/day) at mid-Holocene than at present-day. This is related to a stronger Indian summer monsoon accompanied by an intensified vertically integrated moisture flux convergence. The East Asian monsoon region exhibits local inhomogeneities in the simulated annual precipitation signal. The sign of this signal depends on the balance of decreased pre-monsoon and increased monsoon precipitation at mid-Holocene compared to present-day. Hence, rainfall changes in the East Asian monsoon domain are not solely associated with modifications in the summer monsoon circulation but also depend on changes in the mid-latitudinal westerly wind system that dominates the circulation during the pre-monsoon season. The proxy-based climate reconstructions confirm the regional dissimilarities in the annual precipitation signal and agree well with the model results. Our results highlight the importance of including the pre-monsoon season in climate studies of the Asian monsoon system and point out the complex response of this system to the Holocene insolation forcing. The comparison with a coarse climate model simulation reveals that this complex response can only be resolved in high resolution simulations. 相似文献