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1.
东北地区水稻障碍型低温冷害变化对区域气候增暖的响应   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
胡春丽  李辑  焦敏  王婉昭  李晶  李菲 《气象科技》2015,43(4):744-749
利用东北地区153个气象站1961—2010年逐日气温资料,采用统计学方法分析了水稻障碍型低温冷害的气候变化特征及其对区域气候变暖的响应情况。结果表明,东北大部地区水稻障碍型低温冷害事件呈减少趋势,但区域性较为明显;障碍型低温冷害对关键发育期气温变化响应较为敏感,二者呈显著的负相关关系,表现为气温每升高1 ℃,东北地区冷害减少35个站次。东北地区关键发育期气温均呈上升趋势,但吉林西部地区障碍型冷害却随之增加,分析了关键发育期气温变率和气候变率,将其解释为局地障碍型冷害增加主要受气候变率增大的影响,逐日气温变率对其影响不大。  相似文献   

2.
近45年来云南8月低温的气候分析   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
利用1951-1996年云南气温资料,分析云南夏季低温的气候特征。分析指出,云南夏季低温冷害并不仅仅是障碍型冷害。45年来云南出现5个低温年,与我国东北地区5个低温年不同,低温年主要出现在气温偏冷年代。  相似文献   

3.
通过对贵港市1960-2009年的平均气温、极端最高最低气温随时间变化特征的分析发现:在全球气候变暖的背景下.50年来贵港市气候总的趋势是变暖,冬季增暖最明显;极端气温差逐渐减小;四季气温均上升,冬季较冷,气温波动大;夏季炎热,气温波动较小;春暖秋凉,气温波动较大;近十年变暖尤为明显,气候异常偏暖年份都出现在偏暖期.  相似文献   

4.
东北地区夏季低温的气候分析及其对农业生产的影响   总被引:22,自引:4,他引:22  
丁士晟 《气象学报》1980,38(3):234-242
本文分析了1881年以来东北地区夏季气温,得到了东北夏季严重低温在空间尺度和时间尺度上都是一种很大尺度的现象。长春5—9月的平均气温和可以很好地代表东北地区的冷暖。东北夏季气温有明显的阶段性,即有明显的110年长周期和3年左右的短周期。东北夏季低温会造成农业严重减产,气温低的地方危害更大,低温冷害年水稻减产最大,其次是高粱。  相似文献   

5.
用珲春市1960-2004年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温实况资料,分析了45年来珲春市气温变化特征。结果表明珲春市气温在全球气候变暖的背景下也有上升趋势,年平均气温从60年代到90年代每10年平均上升0.42℃,而低温冷害在气温变暖趋势下并没有减少,90年代后以障碍性冷害为主。  相似文献   

6.
全球气候变暖条件下沈阳若干气候特征的变化   总被引:11,自引:3,他引:11  
周小珊  陈力强  李辑  杨森 《高原气象》2005,24(5):823-828
沈阳地处全球气候变化的敏感带,在近百年中,沈阳冬季气温升高约1.7℃。沈阳气温升高引起了当地多种与农事活动有关的气候现象变化:农耕期近50年增加6日左右,作物主要营养生长期冷害减少,但夏季低温变化不大;初霜日期自1980年代起总体明显推迟,终霜日期提前;冬暖使得蔬菜大棚生产规模扩大;同时,春季第一场透雨日期推后,1980年代后春旱的次数明显增多,但大涝年减少。另外,对农田水分蒸发影响很大的春季大风日数明显减少。对农业生产而言,在全球气候变暖背景下,沈阳地区的这些气象要素变化似乎是利大于弊。  相似文献   

7.
基于昆明地区11站点最近40 a逐年的年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温等气象资料,使用标准差、线性倾向率和信噪比SNR指标及相关检验方法,从多个角度综合分析最近40 a昆明地区气温变化特点和规律。结果表明:近40a来昆明地区气候变暖趋势明显,1971—1990年变暖趋势相对缓慢,进入1990年以来气候变暖加剧;秋冬季变暖比春夏季变暖更为突出;最低气温增温趋势比最高气温、平均气温更为明显,低温增温对气候变暖贡献突出。进入1990年后期,昆明地区气候变暖伴随气温突变出现,1998年昆明地区各区域年平均气温和年平均最低气温都存在气温突变现象。  相似文献   

8.
一、前言东北地区是我国重要的商品粮生产基地.夏季低温冷害是东北地区农业生产上的主要灾害之一.在严重的低温冷害年,粮食产量可减产几十亿甚至百亿斤以上. 所谓夏季低温冷害,是指在作物整个生育期或某个生育阶段,气温低于作物所需要的临界温度而造成的严重减产.近年来,许多研究都证明,低温冷害具有影响面积大、危害程度重、发生频率高等特点.调查,它不仅发生在中高纬度温凉地区,在低纬甚至赤道地区也有发生.  相似文献   

9.
遂平县近54a气温变化特征分析   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
利用遂平县1954-2007年气温观测资料,分析该县近54a的气温变化特征.结果表明:遂平县近54 a来气温呈波动上升趋势,气候变暖,与我国乃至全球气候变暖趋势基本一致,气温变化倾向率为0.124 ℃/10a.冬季气温上升幅度较大、春季次之、秋季较小,夏季气温下降,高、低温天气日数明显减少.遂平县有资料以来的最温暖时期出现在20世纪90年代中后期到21世纪初期,即1994-2002年之间,20世纪90年代暖冬现象特别明显.  相似文献   

10.
东北地区平均、最高、最低气温时空变化特征及对比分析   总被引:29,自引:12,他引:29  
东北地区是我国受全球气候变暖影响增温最显著的地区之一,有其独特的气候变化特点。利用东北地区建国以来较密集的气象观测资料,运用Yamamoto检测、趋势系数、气候倾向率等方法分析了该区域近44 a来平均、最高、最低气温的时空变化特征和规律,并初步探讨了这些变化的差异和可能影响因素。结果表明:近44 a来,东北地区平均气温存在明显的变暖倾向,气候变暖趋势存在着季节性和地域性差异。冬季增温最强,秋季增温最弱;区域变化表现为在区域中心区域,即吉林、黑龙江、内蒙古三省交界区增温趋势最明显,辽宁中部和内蒙古东部的中心靠近边境区域为增温较弱的地区;最低气温的增温率是最高气温的2倍左右。  相似文献   

11.
This study identifies a decadal shift of summer surface air temperature (SAT) over Northeast Asia,including southeastern parts of Russia,Mongolia and northern China,around the mid-1990s.The results suggest that the SAT over the Northeast Asia experienced a significant warming after 1994 relative to that before 1993.This decadal shift also extends to northern China,and leads to a warmer summer over Northeast China and North China after the mid-1990s.The decadal warming over Northeast Asia is found to concur with the enhancement of South China rainfall around the mid-1990s.On the one hand,both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift only in summer,but not in other seasons.On the other hand,both the Northeast Asian SAT and South China rainfall exhibit this mid-1990s decadal shift not only in the summer seasonal mean,but also in each month of summer (June,July and August).Furthermore,the decadal warming is found to result from an anticyclonic anomaly over Northeast Asia,which can be interpreted as the response to the increased precipitation over South China,according to previous numerical results.Thus,we conclude that the warming shift of summer Northeast Asian SAT around the mid-1990s was a remote response to the increased precipitation over South China.  相似文献   

12.
Northeast China (NEC) is one of the major agricultural production areas in China and also an obvious region of climate warming. We were motivated to investigate the impacts of climate warming on the northern limits of maize planting. Additionally, we wanted to assess how spatial shifts in the cropping system impact the maize yields in NEC. To understand these impacts, we used the daily average air temperature data in 72 weather stations and regional experiment yield data from Jilin Province. Averaged across NEC, the annual air temperature increased by 0.38 °C per decade. The annual accumulated temperature above 10 °C (AAT10) followed a similar trend, increased 66 °C d per decade from 1961 to 2007, which caused a northward expansion of the northern limits of maize. The warming enabled early-maturing maize hybrids to be sown in the northern areas of Heilongjiang Province where it was not suitable for growing maize before the warming. In the southern areas of Heilongjiang Province and the eastern areas of Jilin Province, the early-maturing maize hybrids could be replaced by the middle-maturing hybrids with a longer growing season. The maize in the northern areas of Liaoning Province was expected to change from middle-maturing to late-maturing hybrids. Changing the hybrids led to increase the maize yield. When the early-maturing hybrids were replaced by middle-maturing hybrids in Jilin Province, the maize yields would increase by 9.8 %. Similarly, maize yields would increase by 7.1 % when the middle-maturing hybrids were replaced by late-maturing hybrids.  相似文献   

13.
利用1995~1997年东北地区23个测站的地面气温资料、1950~1996年太平洋地区月平均海温资料以及1980~1994年全球月平均风场资料,分析了东北夏季低温冷害的时空特征和变化规律,探讨了太平洋各区域的海温异常与低温冷害之间的可能联系及其影响机理。结果表明,用EOF分解得到的前三个特征向量(占总方差的84.28%)基本表示了东北夏季气温的变化,用这三个特征向量重建的气温距平场,存在着3~4年、6~8年和准16年的主周期,其中6~8年的主分量信号最强。在年代际尺度上,在1979年前后发生了由气温偏冷向偏暖的突变。热带西太平洋暖池(140°E~180°,10°S~10°N)是影响东北夏季气温的关键海域,那里前期冬季海表温度变化是预测东北夏季低温冷害的强信号。另一个关键海域是中纬西太平洋(130°E~180°,10~30°N),前期春季的海温变化也与东北夏季低温有较密切的联系。  相似文献   

14.
The interannual variations of summer surface air temperature over Northeast China (NEC) were investigated through a month-to-month analysis from May to August. The results suggested that the warmer temperature over NEC is related to a local positive 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly for all four months. However, the teleconnection patterns of atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the monthly surface air temperature over NEC behave as a distinguished subseasonal variation, although the local positive height anomaly is common from month to month. In May and June, the teleconnection pattern is characterized by a wave train in the upper and middle troposphere from the Indian Peninsula to NEC. This wave train is stronger in June than in May, possibly due to the positive feedback between the wave train and the South Asian rainfall anomaly in June, when the South Asian summer monsoon has been established. In July and August, however, the teleconnection pattern associated with the NEC temperature anomalies is characterized by an East Asia/Pacific (EAP) or Pacific/Japan (PJ) pattern, with the existence of precipitation anomalies over the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea. This pattern is much clearer in July corresponding to the stronger convection over the Philippine Sea compared to that in August.  相似文献   

15.
格尔木太阳辐射与气温的多年变化   总被引:10,自引:2,他引:10  
利用格尔木1956~1994年的气温和太阳总辐射资料,分析了该地区太阳总辐射和气温的多年变化特征及其相关关系,结果表明,30多年中该地区太阳总辐射滑明显的减少趋势;年平均气温60年代的为低值,70年代迅速上升,比东部平原地区提前,且呈现“冬暖夏凉”的变化趋势,70年代至90年代平均气温与太阳总辐射呈现滞后一年的正相和季气温与同期太阳总辐射有很好的正相关,但冬季的气温变化则与太阳总辐射呈相负相关。  相似文献   

16.
This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990 s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature(SAT) over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990 s. Accompanying this abrupt surface warming, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), annual hottest day temperature(TXx), and annual warmest night temperature(TNx) were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days(SU) and tropical nights(TR).Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature(SST)/ sea ice extent(SIE),anthropogenic greenhouse gas(GHG) concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol(AA) forcing, relative to the period 1964–93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes,although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990 s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA(through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions), mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere–land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply that the abrupt summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990 s will probably sustain in the next few decades as GHG concentrations continue to increase and AA precursor emissions over both North America and Europe continue to decrease.  相似文献   

17.
2014年春季我国主要气候特征及成因简析   总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2       下载免费PDF全文
袁媛  柳艳菊  王艳姣  王朋岭 《气象》2014,40(10):1279-1285
提2014年春季(3-5月),我国大部气温偏高,与2013年春季并列为1961年以来历史同期第二高值。全国平均降水量较常年同期略偏多,其中东北地区降水显著偏多。分析表明,东北降水偏多时段主要发生在5月2-28日,这期间较强的东北冷涡活动是导致东北地区降水偏多的重要原因,其水汽主要来源于东北冷涡从日本海带来的水汽以及偏强偏西的西太平洋副热带高压(简称西太副高)西侧的转向水汽输送。文章还初步探讨了2014年春末南海夏季风爆发偏晚的可能原因。2014年南海夏季风于6月2候爆发,是历史上南海夏季风爆发最晚年之一。导致其爆发偏晚的直接因素是西太副高在4月下旬至5月底持续偏强偏西。进一步的分析结果表明,西太副高在此期间的偏强偏西可能主要由热带印度洋海表迅速增暖所致。  相似文献   

18.
1978~2018年全国夏季降水实时业务预测技巧显示东北地区明显偏低,尤其是近几年在对全国夏季旱涝的总体分布预测效果明显提高的情况下,对东北地区的预测却与实况相反,因此有必要分析该区域预测技巧偏低的原因。利用站点资料、再分析格点数据、实时预测历史数据及统计诊断等方法,探讨了动力气候模式预测能力以及东北夏季降水预测的认识缺陷。通过系统地回顾东北夏季旱涝的气候特征、影响因子及预测方法等方面的研究进展,以及东北夏季降水实时预测检验,得出预测技巧偏低的可能原因:(1)东北初夏降水主要受东北冷涡活动的影响,盛夏主要受西太平洋副热带高压、东北南风和中高纬环流型的共同作用,而业务常用的国内外主要动力气候模式无法准确反映与东北初夏和盛夏降水相联系的关键环流系统;(2)东北夏季降水与全球海温的关系较弱且不稳定,尤其是与ENSO的关系较为复杂,年际关系随年代际变化而波动,即ENSO不是预测东北夏季降水的强信号;(3)东北夏季降水具有明显的季节内、年际和年代际等多时间尺度变率,夏季降水受到多种时间尺度信息的叠加和调控,不同尺度变率的贡献相当,且影响系统不同,导致预测难度较大。最后,进一步探讨了东北夏季降水预测存在的科学问题及可能的解决途径,以期为夏季业务预测提供参考。  相似文献   

19.
本文基于中国地面气温日值网格数据集(V2.0),采用滑动相关和相关分析等方法,揭示了冬季北大西洋涛动(NAO)对中国北方极端低温影响的事实,进一步证实了东北后冬(1、2月)冷日(夜)与同期NAO相关性的年代际变化。研究发现:在20世纪80年代中期前,东北后冬冷日(夜)频发,与NAO的相关性较好,而在80年代中期后东北后冬冷日(夜)少发,与NAO的相关性减弱。其中,1月在1969~1988阶段,东北冷日(夜)与NAO的相关性最好,相关区域显著,相关系数可达-0.68(-0.66),而在1989~2009阶段二者相关性最弱,相关区域不显著。进一步分析发现,在不同年代际背景下,NAO引起的大气环流异常是导致东北1月冷日(夜)与1月NAO相关性年代际变化的重要原因。相关性较好的年代,NAO引起的环流异常有利于冷涡等天气系统维持在贝加尔湖到东北一带,使东北地区气温偏低,冷日(夜)频发;相关性较弱的年代,不利于冷空气南下,使东北地区气温偏高,冷日(夜)少发。  相似文献   

20.
Based on NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data, climate trend rate and other methods are used to quantitatively analyze the change trend of China's summer observed temperature in 1983—2012. Moreover, a dynamics-statistics-combined seasonal forecast method with optimal multi-factor portfolio is applied to analyze the impact of this trend on summer temperature forecast. The results show that: in the three decades, the summer temperature shows a clear upward trend under the condition of global warming, especially over South China, East China, Northeast China and Xinjiang Region, and the trend rate of national average summer temperature was 0.27℃ per decade. However, it is found that the current business model forecast(Coupled Global Climate Model) of National Climate Centre is unable to forecast summer warming trends in China, so that the post-processing forecast effect of dynamics-statistics-combined method is relatively poor. In this study, observed temperatures are processed first by removing linear fitting trend, and then adding it after forecast to offset the deficiency of model forecast indirectly. After test, ACC average value in the latest decade was 0.44 through dynamics-statistics-combined independent sample return forecast. The temporal correlation(TCC) between forecast and observed temperature was significantly improved compared with direct forecast results in most regions, and effectively improved the skill of the dynamics-statistics-combined forecast method in seasonal temperature forecast.  相似文献   

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