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1.
Influence of the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific Types of ENSO on the South Asian Summer Monsoon 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Based on observational and reanalysis data,the relationships between the eastern Pacific(EP)and central Pacific(CP)types of El Ni?o?Southern Oscillation(ENSO)during the developing summer and the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)are examined.The roles of these two types of ENSO on the SASM experienced notable multidecadal modulation in the late 1970s.While the inverse relationship between the EP type of ENSO and the SASM has weakened dramatically,the CP type of ENSO plays a far more prominent role in producing anomalous Indian monsoon rainfall after the late 1970s.The drought-producing El Ni?o warming of both the EP and CP types can excite anomalous rising motion of the Walker circulation concentrated in the equatorial central Pacific around 160°W to the date line.Accordingly,compensatory subsidence anomalies are evident from the Maritime Continent to the Indian subcontinent,leading to suppressed convection and decreased precipitation over these regions.Moreover,anomalously less moisture flux into South Asia associated with developing EP El Ni?o and significant northwesterly anomalies dominating over southern India accompanied by developing CP El Ni?o,may also have been responsible for the Indian monsoon droughts during the pre-1979 and post-1979 sub-periods,respectively.El Ni?o events with the same“flavor”may not necessarily produce consistent Indian monsoon rainfall anomalies,while similar Indian monsoon droughts may be induced by different types of El Ni?o,implying high sensitivity of monsoonal precipitation to the detailed configuration of ENSO forcing imposed on the tropical Pacific. 相似文献
2.
Based on 1948 - 2004 monthly Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data, the relationships between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM) and the strength of South China Sea (SCS) Summer Monsoon are investigated through the EOF and smooth correlation methods. The results are as the following. (1) There are two dominant modes of autumn SSTA over the tropical Indian Ocean. They are the uniformly signed basin-wide mode (USBM) and Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM), respectively. The SSTA associated with USBM are prevailing decadal to interdecadal variability characterized by a unanimous pattern, while the IODM mainly represents interannual variability of SSTA. (2) When positive (negative) IODM exists over the tropical Indian Ocean during the preceding fall, the SCS summer monsoon will be weak (strong). The negative correlation between the interannual variability of IODM and that of SCS summer monsoon is significant during the warm phase of long-term trend but insignificant during the cool phase. (3) When the SCS summer monsoon is strong (weak), the IODM will be in its positive (negative) phase during the following fall season. The positive correlation between the interannual variability of SCS summer monsoon and that of IODM is significant during both the warm and cool phase of the long-term trend, but insignificant during the transition between the two phases. 相似文献
3.
The results of this study prove that there is significant troposphere biennial oscillation （TBO） in the South Asian climate, especially with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. In order to explore the mechanism of TBO in the South Asian region, we defined a unified South Asian monsoon index to depict South Asian summer monsoon （SASM） and South Asian winter monsoon （SAWM） and the transition features between SASM and SAWM. Through further analysis, the connection between the abnormity of SASM and SAWM was discovered. Normally, a strong SAWM is beneficial for a weak SASM later, while a weak SAWM favors a strong SASM. Meanwhile, a strong SASM is favorable for a weak SAWM and a weak SAWM always happens after a weak SASM. Such results suggest the evolution of the South Asian monsoon, which may be an important mechanism to excite TBO in South Asia. 相似文献
4.
After compositing three representative ENSO indices,El Nio events have been divided into an eastern pattern(EP) and a central pattern(CP).By using EOF,correlation and composite analysis,the relationship and possible mechanisms between Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) and two types of El Nio were investigated.IOD events,originating from Indo-Pacific scale air-sea interaction,are composed of two modes,which are associated with EP and CP El Ni o respectively.The IOD mode related to EP El Nio events(named as IOD1) is strongest at the depth of 50 to 150 m along the equatorial Indian Ocean.Besides,it shows a quasi-symmetric distribution,stronger in the south of the Equator.The IOD mode associated with CP El Nio(named as IOD2) has strongest signal in tropical southern Indian Ocean surface.In terms of mechanisms,before EP El Nio peaks,anomalous Walker circulation produces strong anomalous easterlies in equatorial Indian Ocean,resulting in upwelling in the east,decreasing sea temperature there;a couple of anomalous anticyclones(stronger in the south) form off the Equator where warm water accumulates,and thus the IOD1 occurs.When CP El Nio develops,anomalous Walker circulation is weaker and shifts its center to the west,therefore anomalous easterlies in equatorial Indian Ocean is less strong.Besides,the anticyclone south of Sumatra strengthens,and the southerlies east of it bring cold water from higher latitudes and northerlies west of it bring warm water from lower latitudes to the 15° to 25°S zone.Meanwhile,there exists strong divergence in the east and convergence in the west part of tropical southern Indian Ocean,making sea temperature fall and rise separately.Therefore,IOD2 lies farther south. 相似文献
5.
Preliminary Studies on Predicting the Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature through Combined Statistical Methods and Dynamic ENSO Prediction 
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下载免费PDF全文 The sea surface temperature(SST) in the Indian Ocean affects the regional climate over the Asian continent mostly through a modulation of the monsoon system.It is still difficult to provide an a priori indication of the seasonal variability over the Indian Ocean.It is widely recognized that the warm and cold events of SST over the tropical Indian Ocean are strongly linked to those of the equatorial eastern Pacific.In this study,a statistical prediction model has been developed to predict the monthly SST over the tropical Indian Ocean.This model is a linear regression model based on the lag relationship between the SST over the tropical Indian Ocean and the Ni o3.4(5°S-5°N,170°W-120°W) SST Index.The predictor(i.e.,Ni o3.4 SST Index) has been operationally predicted by a large size ensemble El Ni o and the Southern Oscillation(ENSO) forecast system with coupled data assimilation(Leefs_CDA),which achieves a high predictive skill of up to a 24-month lead time for the equatorial eastern Pacific SST.As a result,the prediction skill of the present statistical model over the tropical Indian Ocean is better than that of persistence prediction for January 1982 through December 2009. 相似文献
6.
Sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) exerts great influence on the generation of global weather and climate. Much progress has been made with respect to SSTA in the Pacific Ocean region in contrast to the Indian Ocean. The IAP9L model, which is developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Science, is used to simulate the influence of the Indian Ocean SSTA on the general circulation and weather/climate anomalies in the monsoon region of Asia. It is found that the warm (cool) SSTA in the equatorial low latitudes of the Indian Ocean triggers winter (summer) teleconnection patterns in middle and higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere that are similar to PNA or EAP. They play a very important role in the anomaly of circulation or weather and climate in the middle and lower latitudes of the Asian summer monsoon region. With the warm (cool) SSTA forcing in the Indian Ocean, the Asian summer monsoon sets up at a late (early) date and withdraws at a early (late) date, lasting for a short (long) duration at a weak (strong) intensity. The Indian Ocean SSTA is shown to be an indicator for precipitation variation in China. 相似文献
7.
Relationships between the East Asian-western north pacific monsoon and ENSO simulated by FGOALS-s2 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
The relationships between ENSO and the East Asian-western North Pacific monsoon simulated by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2), a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model (CGCM), are evaluated. For El Nio developing summers, FGOALS-s2 reproduces the anomalous cyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP) and associated negative precipitation anomalies in situ. In the observation, the anomalous cyclone is transformed to an anomalous anticyclone over the WNP (WNPAC) during El Nio mature winters. The model reproduces the WNPAC and associated positive precipitation anomalies over southeastern China during winter. However, the model fails to simulate the asymmetry of the wintertime circulation anomalies over the WNP between El Nio and La Nia. The simulated anomalous cyclone over the WNP (WNPC) associated with La Nia is generally symmetric about the WNPAC associated with El Nio, rather than shifted westward as that in the observation. The discrepancy can partially explain why simulated La Nin a events decay much faster than observed. In the observation, the WNPAC maintains throughout the El Nio decaying summer under the combined effects of local forcing of the WNP cold sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and remote forcing from basinwide warming in the tropical Indian Ocean. FGOALS-s2 captures the two mechanisms and reproduces the WNPAC throughout the summer. However, owing to biases in the mean state, the precipitation anomalies over East Asia, especially those of the Meiyu rain belt, are much weaker than that in the observation. 相似文献
8.
A DIAGNOSIS OF THE INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND SURFACE WIND FIELD IN THE TROPICAL OCEANS AND ITS CORRELATIVE CHARACTERS WITH ENSO CYCLE 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Utilizing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly datasets,and based on the filter and standarddeviation calculation,the interannual variability of sea surface temperature(SST)and 1000 hPawind field for the tropical Pacific,Indian and Atlantic Oceans is investigated for the past 20 years(1979—1998).The characters of space-time evolution in SST anomalies(SSTA)for each oceanand corresponding wind anomaly field are acquired by using rotated principal component(RPC)and linear regression analysis methods.Using the method of correlation analysis.the characters ofthree tropical oceans correlated with ENSO are investigated.The contemporary correlationbetween the SSTA in the Indian Ocean and in the equatorial eastern Pacific is positive,and there isa weak negative correlation between the SSTA in the equatorial east Atlantic Ocean and in theequatorial eastern Pacific.The lead-lag correlation analysis indicates that the SSTA in theequatorial Indian Ocean lags the dominant Pacific ENSO mode by 3 months,and the SSTA in theequatorial Atlantic Ocean leads ENSO mode by 6 months.The ENSO-correlated components intropical Indian Ocean and tropical Atlantic Ocean display much the same amount of total variance ineach ocean,i.e..14% in the Indian Ocean and 12% in the Atlantic Ocean and the maximums areall above 40%. 相似文献
9.
The relationships between the tropical Indian Ocean basin(IOB)/dipole(IOD) mode of SST anomalies(SSTAs) and ENSO phase transition during the following year are examined and compared in observations for the period 1958–2008.Both partial correlation analysis and composite analysis show that both the positive(negative) phase of the IOB and IOD(independent of each other) in the tropical Indian Ocean are possible contributors to the El Nio(La Nia) decay and phase transition to La Nia(El Nio) about one year later. However, the influence on ENSO transition induced by the IOB is stronger than that by the IOD. The SSTAs in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in the coming year originate from subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial eastern Indian and western Pacific Ocean, induced by the IOB and IOD through eastward and upward propagation to meet the surface. During this process, however the contribution of the oceanic channel process between the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans is totally different for the IOB and IOD. For the IOD, the influence of the Indonesian Throughflow transport anomalies could propagate to the eastern Pacific to induce the ENSO transition. For the IOB, the impact of the oceanic channel stays and disappears in the western Pacific without propagation to the eastern Pacific. 相似文献
10.
Increased evidence has shown the important role of Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST) in modulating the El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). Persistent anomalies of summer Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) act to link the Atlantic SST anomalies(SSTAs) to ENSO. The Atlantic SSTAs are strongly correlated with the persistent anomalies of summer MJO, and possibly affect MJO in two major ways. One is that an anomalous cyclonic(anticyclonic) circulation appears over the tropical Atlantic Ocean associated with positive(negative) SSTA in spring, and it intensifies(weakens) the Walker circulation. Equatorial updraft anomaly then appears over the Indian Ocean and the eastern Pacific Ocean, intensifying MJO activity over these regions. The other involves a high pressure(low pressure) anomaly associated with the North Atlantic SSTA tripole pattern that is transmitted to the mid-and low-latitudes by a circumglobal teleconnection pattern, leading to strong(weak) convective activity of MJO over the Indian Ocean. The above results offer new viewpoints about the process from springtime Atlantic SSTA signals to summertime atmospheric oscillation, and then to the MJO of tropical atmosphere affecting wintertime Pacific ENSO events, which connects different oceans. 相似文献
11.
从短期气候预测关注的外强迫信号角度出发,回顾了国内外在海温异常对东亚夏季风和我国汛期降水影响机理方面的主要研究进展,重点评述了热带太平洋ENSO循环、热带印度洋全区一致型海温模态、热带印度洋海温异常偶极子、南印度洋偶极子和北大西洋海温三极子模态的年际变化及其对东亚夏季风年际变率的影响。从研究成果在短期气候预测业务中应用的角度,重点关注海温异常和东亚夏季风年际变率以及我国汛期降水多雨带位置的关系,总结了海温异常作为外强迫信号对我国汛期降水预测的指示意义以及汛期降水预测的难度。最后指出气候预测业务对东亚夏季风影响的机理研究和动力气候模式发展方面的需求。 相似文献
12.
利用逐月台站观测降水、HadISST1.1海温和ERA5大气再分析资料,研究了前冬印度洋海盆一致模（Indian Ocean Basin,IOB）对华南春季降水（SCSR）与ENSO关系的影响,并分析了IOB通过调控ENSO环流异常进而影响SCSR的可能机制。结果表明:当前冬El Ni?o（La Ni?a）与IOB暖（冷）位相同时发生时,SCSR显著增多（减少）;而当El Ni?o或La Ni?a单独发生而IOB处于中性时,SCSR并无明显多寡倾向。其原因在于,当El Ni?o与IOB暖相位并存时,前冬热带印度洋和赤道中东太平洋均为正海温异常（Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA）,且印度洋SSTA强度可一直维持至春季。在对流层低层,春季赤道中东太平洋的正SSTA激发出异常西北太平洋反气旋（Western North Pacific Anticyclone,WNPAC）。而热带印度洋的正SSTA在副热带印度洋激发出赤道南北反对称环流,赤道以北的东风异常有利于异常WNPAC西伸;赤道以南的西风异常与来自赤道西太平洋的东风异常在东印度洋辐合上升,气流至西北太平洋下沉,形成经向垂直环流,有利于春季WNPAC维持。在对流层高层,印度洋的正SSTA在热带印度洋上空激发出位势高度正异常,随之形成的气压经向梯度加强了东亚高空副热带西风急流,进而在华南上空形成异常辐散环流。WNPAC的西伸和加强可为华南提供充足的水汽,同时高空辐散在华南引发水汽上升运动,共同导致SCSR正异常。而若El Ni?o发生时IOB处于中性状态,El Ni?o相关的SSTA衰减较快,春季WNPAC不显著,SCSR无明显多寡趋势。 相似文献
13.
利用多种大气和海洋再分析资料,采用合成分析及2.5层简化海洋模型数值模拟等方法,研究了1951—2012年期间,与东部和中部型El Ni?o事件相伴随的热带印度洋海温偶极子(Indian Ocean Dipole,IOD)出现时,热带印度洋海温异常增暖及其上空海气耦合特征的物理机制。结果表明:夏秋季节,伴随东部型El Ni?o而发生的IOD事件(EP-IOD)和伴随中部型El Ni?o而发生的IOD事件(CP-IOD)中,热带印度洋海温正异常的强度与空间分布具有很大差异。对于EP-IOD事件,夏季,海温正异常中心最先出现在热带西北印度洋;随后秋季,海温正异常向东南发展并扩大至热带中南印度洋,强度较强。对于CP-IOD事件,夏季和秋季,海温正异常中心都位于热带中南印度洋,呈东西向带状分布,但海温正异常强度较EP-IOD事件中弱。进一步分析表明,在EP-IOD事件中,夏季,热带西北印度洋海区西南季风偏弱,通过影响夹卷混合过程导致热带西北印度洋海温上升;秋季,热带西北印度洋上空的异常偏东风导致垂向夹卷混合的正异常,对热带西北印度洋增暖的维持起到重要作用;热带中南印度洋的增暖主要受赤道东南印度洋西传的暖性Rossby波影响。而在CP-IOD事件中,夏秋两季,热带中南印度洋海区出现显著的西北风异常,其上空风速的负异常是增温的主要原因;同时赤道东南印度洋西传的暖性Rossby波对热带中南印度洋的增暖也起到重要作用。 相似文献
14.
Interannual variations of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon (BOBSM) onset in association with El Ni?o?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are reexamined using NCEP1, JRA-55 and ERA20C atmospheric and Hadley sea surface temperature (SST) reanalysis datasets over the period 1900?2017. Decadal changes exist in the dependence of the BOBSM onset on ENSO, varying with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A higher correlation between the BOBSM onset and ENSO arises during the warm PDO epochs, with distinct late (early) onsets following El Ni?o (La Ni?a) events. In contrast, less significant correlations occur during the cold PDO epochs. The mechanism for the PDO modulating the ENSO?BOBSM onset relationship is through the variations in SST anomaly (SSTA) patterns. During the warm PDO epochs, the superimpositions of the PDO-related and ENSO-related SSTAs lead to the SSTA distribution of an El Ni?o (La Ni?a) event exhibiting significant positive (negative) SSTAs over the tropical central?eastern Pacific and Indian Ocean along with negative (positive) SSTAs, especially over the tropical western Pacific (TWP), forming a strong zonal interoceanic SSTA gradient between the TWP and tropical Indian Ocean. Significant anomalous lower tropospheric easterlies (westerlies) together with upper-tropospheric westerlies (easterlies) are thus induced over the BOB, favoring an abnormally late (early) BOBSM onset. During the cold PDO epochs, however, the superimpositions of PDO-related SSTAs with El Ni?o-related (La Ni?a-related) SSTAs lead to insignificant SSTAs over the TWP and a weak zonal SSTA gradient, without distinct circulation anomalies over the BOB favoring early or late BOBSM onsets. 相似文献
15.
影响南海夏季风爆发年际变化的关键海区及机制初探 总被引：1，自引：7，他引：1
利用1958—2011年NCEP/ NCAR再分析资料和ERSST资料,采用Lanczos时间滤波器、相关分析、回归分析、合成分析和交叉检验等方法,研究了影响南海夏季风爆发年际变化的关键海区海温异常的来源与可能机制。结果表明,前冬(12—2月)热带西南印度洋和热带西北太平洋是影响南海夏季风爆发年际变化的关键海区。冬季热带西南印度洋(热带西北太平洋)的异常增暖是由前一年夏季El Ni?o早爆发(强印度季风异常驱动的行星尺度东-西向环流)触发、热带印度洋(西北太平洋)局地海气正反馈过程引起并维持到春季。冬季热带西北太平洋反气旋性环流(气旋性环流)及印度洋(热带西北太平洋)的暖海区局地海气相互作用使得印度洋(热带西北太平洋)海温异常维持到春末。春季,逐渐加强北移到10 °N附近的低层大气对北印度洋(热带西北太平洋)暖海温异常响应的东风急流(异常西风)及南海-热带西北太平洋维持的反气旋性环流(气旋性环流)异常,使得南海夏季风晚(早)爆发。 相似文献
16.
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、全球海温海冰GISST 2.3b资料, 用EOF技术分析了热带太平洋海表温度的年际异常 (SSTA) 变化特征表明:可用Ni?o3指数表示热带太平洋SSTA, 并用该指数来讨论热带太平洋、热带印度洋SSTA间的关系。分季节分析表明:冬季Ni?o3指数与热带印度洋SSTA间的关系表现为热带印度洋整体相关系数为正的单极形态, 且1976年以后两者的关系减弱, 其原因是冬季为ENSO事件的盛期, 另外, 冬季西太平洋暖水区东移导致太平洋Walker环流上升支强盛处的东移, 造成两洋的垂直纬向环流耦合减弱。夏季两者关系表现为偶极形态 (热带西印度洋与Ni?o3指数同相变化, 热带东印度洋则相反), 但1976年以后两者的关系有所加强, 是因为夏季为偶极子盛期, 也是ENSO事件的发展期, 同时夏季西太平洋暖水区东移并未引起太平洋Walker环流上升支强盛处的明显东移, 且印度洋季风环流、太平洋Walker环流的上升支强盛处的强度增大了, 造成两洋的垂直纬向环流耦合更强烈。即1976年以后, 冬季热带两洋SSTA间的关系减弱了, 而夏季两者关系则变得更密切。 相似文献
17.
ENSO多样性研究进展 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
El Ni?o是热带中东太平洋异常偏暖的现象,发展过程具有显著的季节锁相特征。近年来,新形态事件更频繁发生引起了科学界广泛关注。学者们根据空间分布形态或爆发时间将ENSO事件分为两类,虽然选取标准不同,分类结果却有诸多相似点:中太平洋(Dateline、Modoki、CP、WP及SU型)El Ni?o事件发展至成熟时,正SSTA中心位于赤道太平洋中部;东太平洋(传统、EP、CT及SP型)El Ni?o发展至成熟时,正SSTA中心位于赤道东太平洋,低层西风异常更强,向东传输的距离也更远。研究结果显示,东太平洋El Ni?o比中太平洋El Ni?o持续时间更长,强度也更强;两类事件对全球气候的影响模态有很大的差异。近几十年,中太平洋El Ni?o出现频率有所增加,但其原因尚未清楚。关于两类事件生成发展和位相转换的动力原因,目前科学界普遍认为东太平洋El Ni?o是一个海盆尺度的海气耦合过程,其生消过程与温跃层的变化有紧密联系,但对中太平洋El Ni?o的动力机制尚未有统一的认识。 相似文献
18.
海洋盐度变化为研究气候变化的机制提供了一个新的视角。本文通过对比1997/1998年、2015/2016年两次强厄尔尼诺（El Ni?o）事件和2014/2015年特殊El Ni?o事件,对盐度变化及其影响海表面温度异常（SSTA）的物理过程进行了比较分析。研究表明,El Ni?o和南方涛动（El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation, ENSO）发展的强弱与热带西太平洋大范围海表层盐度异常（SSSA）及其向东扩散的差异有明显关联。1997/1998、2015/2016年赤道东太平洋SSTA的增暖,对应两次强El Ni?o事件,在发生年4月,中西太平洋海域出现了明显的负SSSA,之后东移至日期变更线以西,SSSA引发的混合层深度（MLD）变浅、障碍层厚度（BLT）变厚,导致热带中—西太平洋表层升温增强,促使了赤道中太平洋的早期变暖;2014/2015年弱El Ni?o事件虽然在发生年4月,位于赤道中西太平洋出现了负SSSA,但没有发展东移,导致BLT的增厚过程减弱,对表层温度的调制作用减弱甚至消失。三次事件对应的盐度变化过程中,水平平流和淡水通量（FWF）引起的表层强迫是影响盐度收支的主要因子,水平平流影响盐度异常的前期变化,触发事件的发生;热带太平洋西部降水引起的FWF负异常的影响最为显著,对ENSO异常信号出现后SSSA的维持起决定性作用。相比较两次强El Ni?o事件,2014/2015年El Ni?o对应的早期FWF负异常没有发展和东移,并且之后迅速减弱,导致中西太平洋盐度负趋势减缓,MLD加深,BLT变薄,促使上表层海水冷却,抑制了赤道东太平洋的早期变暖和ENSO发展。研究结果表明,盐度变化与ENSO密切相关,热带中西太平洋海域早期表层盐度变化可能可以作为SSTA的指数。特别地,SSSA在调节SSTA时,不仅影响它的强度,而且可以作为判断ENSO是否发展及其强弱的前兆因子。 相似文献
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本文基于1979-2017年逐日再分析资料,通过分析对流层中上层青藏高原和印度洋之间的热力差异,提出了一个热力对比指数(TCI),并分析了TCI与南亚夏季风的强度和爆发时间的关系.研究表明:相比单独的青藏高原或者印度洋的温度,TCI能更好地表示南亚夏季风强度的变化.TCI越大时,南亚夏季风爆发时间越早;TCI逐候增量的变化超前南亚季风指数的变化,两者相关系数在TCI逐候增量超前南亚季风指数15候时达到最大.TCI是预报南亚夏季风爆发的一个潜在指标. 相似文献