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1.
The few systematic international comparisons of climate policy strength made so far have serious weaknesses, particularly those that assign arbitrary weightings to different policy instrument types in order to calculate an aggregate score for policy strength. This article avoids these problems by ranking the six biggest emitters by far – China, the US, the EU, India, Russia, and Japan – on a set of six key policy instruments that are individually potent and together representative of climate policy as a whole: carbon taxes, emissions trading, feed-in tariffs, renewable energy quotas, fossil fuel power plant bans, and vehicle emissions standards. The results cast strong doubt on any idea that there is a clear hierarchy on climate policy with Europe at the top: the EU does lead on a number of policies but so does Japan. China, the US, and India each lead on one area. Russia is inactive on all fronts. At the same time climate policy everywhere remains weak compared to what it could be.

Policy relevance

This study enables climate policy strength, defined as the extent to which the statutory provisions of climate policies are likely to restrict GHG emissions if implemented as intended, to be assessed and compared more realistically across space and time. As such its availability for the six biggest emitters, which together account for over 70% of global CO2 emissions, should facilitate international negotiations (1) by giving participants a better idea of where major emitters stand relative to each other as far as climate policy stringency is concerned, and (2) by identifying areas of weakness that need action.  相似文献   


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3.
The ongoing devolution of climate policy-making to sub-national levels has prompted growing interest in policy entrepreneurship by individuals who are politically and technically creative and institutionally resourceful. This paper investigates the case of the materials-management programme in the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality which has emerged as a national and international leader by focusing on the role of household consumption in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Two noteworthy innovations involve the development of a consumption-based GHG emissions inventory and introduction of policies aimed at facilitating construction of small homes (so-called Accessory Dwelling Units, ADU). The case traces over several decades the higher order learning processes within the group and their entrepreneurship toward affecting broader changes in emission accounting and climate policies in Oregon. The paper identifies the enabling factors for these innovations, and considers: how to create the conditions for learning, experimentation, and policy entrepreneurship; how to reproduce these conditions in different locales; and how to recognize and foster innovations that arise outside the established mainstream ‘climate community’. It also stresses the benefits of breaking down the barriers between science-based analysis and policy. The two questions frequently raised in the climate policy debate – how to bring researchers and practitioners together to develop efficacious policies; and how to replicate successful programmes and policies across different communities, jurisdictions, and locations – should be re-examined. It may be more appropriate to ask instead: How to create conditions for learning, experimentation, and policy entrepreneurship; and how to reproduce these conditions in different locales.

Key policy insights

  • Using a consumption-based greenhouse gas emission inventory instead of a sector-based inventory radically changes climate policy priorities, shifting the emphasis from technological fixes to curbing household consumption.

  • Policy innovations thrive in teams that combine technical and scientific competencies with: a commitment to addressing societal problems; interest in inquiry, experimentation, and learning; entrepreneurship; and strategic and political savvy.

  • These qualities require breaking down artificial barriers between science and policy.

  • Transformative policy ideas can originate within institutional nodes that operate outside of an established community of expertise and authority; and these should be identified and fostered.

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4.
Globalization,Pacific Islands,and the paradox of resilience   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
On April 2nd, 2007 a 12 m tsunami struck Simbo, a relatively remote island in Western Province, Solomon Islands. Although Simbo's population continues to depend on their own food production and small-scale governance regimes regulate access to resources, the island's way of life over the last century has increasingly been affected by processes associated with globalization. In this context of a rapidly globalizing world, this article examines the island's resilience and vulnerability to the tsunami and the adaptive capacities that enabled the response and recovery. The tsunami completely destroyed two villages and damaged fringing coral reefs, but casualties were low and social–ecological rebound relatively brisk. By combining social science methods (household surveys, focus group and ethnographic interviews) and underwater reef surveys we identify a number of countervailing challenges and opportunities presented by globalization that both nurture and suppress the island's resilience to high amplitude, low-frequency disturbances like tsunamis. Analysis suggests that certain adaptive capacities that sustain general system resilience come at the cost of more vulnerability to low-probability hazards. We discuss how communities undergoing increasingly complex processes of change must negotiate these kinds of trade-offs as they manage resilience at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the shifting dynamics of resilience may be critical for Pacific Island communities who seek to leverage globalization in their favor as they adapt to current social–ecological change and prepare for future large-scale ecological disturbances.  相似文献   

5.
This paper is a review of the recent development of researches on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation （AMOC）. In particular, we will review recent studies that attempt to best assess the stability of the AMOC in the past, present, and future by using a stability indicator related to the freshwater transport by the AMOC. These studies further illustrate a potentially systematic bias in the state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean generM circulation models （AOCCMs）, in which the AMOCs seem to be over-stabilized relative to that in the real world. This common model bias in the AMOC stability is contributed, partly, to a common tropical bias associated with the double intertropical convergence zone （ITCZ） in most state-of-the- art AOGCMs, casting doubts on future projection of abrupt climate changes in these climate models.  相似文献   

6.
Free tropospheric measurements of ozone, peroxyacetylnitrate andprecursors (CO, NMHC) that were made within the framework of the EUROTRACsub-project TOR (Tropospheric Ozone Research) between 1990 and 1995 at theGAW station Izana, Tenerife (28°18N, 16°30W) arediscussed. The average annual cycles reveal the importance of transport fromnorthern mid-latitudes and the role of photo-chemistry. According toair-mass trajectories, which were supplied to us from AEROCE(Atmosphere/Ocean Chemistry Experiment), transport from northernmid-latitudes is associated with high precursor concentrations in winter,whereas ozone concentrations in winter are not much influenced by transportpatterns, suggesting a rather uniform distribution over the northern part ofthe Northern Hemisphere around mean value of 43 ± 5 ppb. In summer,high ozone concentrations of up to 90 ppb are often encountered duringtransport from north, while the levels of precursors are much lower than inwinter, because of photochemical destruction. Trajectories from southerlylatitudes and the Sahara usually have the lowest ozone concentrationsassociated with them.  相似文献   

7.
Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects:the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the "Silk Road" teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.  相似文献   

8.
Motivated in part by the mathematical problems associated with the application of open boundary conditions to the hydrostatic primitive equations (PE), Browning et al. (1990, Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 14: 303–332) proposed the use of the reduced system (RS) of equations to replace PE for oceanographic problems. The RS are essentially the Boussinesq equations (BO) with the non-hydrostatic terms in the vertical momentum equation multiplied by a constant δ2 ? 1. This artificially alters the physics (e.g. changing the intemal-inertial wave properties) to facilitate numerical integration, but the changes are assumed to have negligible effects on the dynamics of interest. We assess the accuracy and utility of the RS (following the guidelines for the choice of δ) by comparing numerical finite difference solutions of RS, PE and BO for initial-value problems involving three-dimensional instability of an ocean front and atmospheric frontal development in a two-dimensional Eady wave. Both explicit (BO, PE) and semi-implicit (BOSI, PESI) time-difference schemes are used for the Boussinesq and primitive equations. For RS, the same explicit scheme as for BO is used where δ ? 1 allows larger time steps than with the other explicit models. It is found that relative to BO solutions, the errors for RS are small but increase rapidly and monotonically with increasing δ (over a range consistent with the guidelines) and are greater than the errors for the other models. The use of BOSI allows time steps at least as large as those for RS and results in smaller errors than RS. For these problems, BOSI is the preferable model to replace PE.  相似文献   

9.
Based on The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset,using various verification methods,the performances of four typical ense...  相似文献   

10.
<正>Drought is a recurring dry condition with below-normal precipitation and is often associated with warm temperatures or heatwaves. A drought event can develop slowly over several weeks or suddenly within days, commonly under abnormal atmospheric conditions(e.g., quasi-stationary high-pressure systems), and can persist for weeks, months, or even years,  相似文献   

11.
基于中心轴线的北太平洋冬季风暴轴分类及其机理研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料研究了63年（1948～2010年）冬季北太平洋风暴轴的时空演变,提取风暴轴的中心轴线作为研究主体,以风暴轴的经向分布差异为重点,用模糊C均值聚类分析的方法将风暴轴分为平均型、偏北型和偏南型三类,并探讨了各类风暴轴对应的海气异常型及其物理机制。结果表明:（1）三类风暴轴分别显示了风暴轴经向差异的具体物理图像,对应着不同的涡旋移动发展路径,具有明确的天气学意义。通过EOF分解证明本文的分类反映了风暴轴的主要变化特征,物理意义清晰,具有一定的合理性和实用性。（2）三类风暴轴不仅经向差异明显,其北抬南压的纬向位置也存在显著差异,进一步表明该分类方法充分考虑了风暴轴空间分布的经向纬向差异,还揭示了风暴轴多中心的特点。（3）三类风暴轴对应的不同SST异常通过热力过程影响大气的温度场、风场和位势高度场,导致阿留申低压强度位置异常和水平风场异常,进而影响大气斜压性,决定风暴轴的空间分布,是形成不同类型风暴轴的重要原因。  相似文献   

12.
The arid region of northwest China is a large area with complex topography. Hydrological research is limited by scarcity and uneven distribution of rain gauges. Satellite precipitation products provide wide coverage and high spatial–temporal resolutions, but the accuracy needs to be evaluated before application. In this paper, the reliability of four satellite precipitation products (CMORPH [Climate Prediction Center’s morphing technique], PERSIANN [Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks], TRMM [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission] 3B42, and TRMM 3B43) were evaluated through comparison with ground data or reported values on daily, monthly, and annual scales from 2003 to 2010. Indices including frequency bias index, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio were used to evaluate recorded precipitation occurrences; relative mean bias, the correlation coefficient, and the Nash coefficient were used to assess precipitation amount. Satellite precipitation products were more accurate in the warm than in the cold season, and performed better in northern Xinjiang than in other regions during the cold season. CMORPH and PERSIANN tended to overestimate precipitation. TRMM 3B42 and TRMM 3B43 performed best because the former most accurately detected precipitation occurrences on a daily scale, and both produced accurate space–time distribution of precipitation and the best consistency with rain gauge observations. Only a few monthly precipitation values for TRMM 3B42 and TRMM 3B43, and annual precipitation values for TRMM 3B42 were with satisfactory precision. TRMM3B42 and TRMM 3B43 are therefore recommended, but correction will be needed before application. Factors including elevation, relative relief, longitude, and latitude had significant effects on the performance of satellite precipitation products, and these factors may be helpful in correcting satellite precipitation.  相似文献   

13.
Data collected in 2007 from a dense commercial network (operated by AWS Convergence Technologies, Inc.) of roof-mounted temperature sensors are used to explore the heat island characteristics of Washington, DC, and New York City, NY. Considerable spatial detail is revealed, but aggregating data in annuli centered on assumed central locations in the business districts of the two cities reveals that the heat islands extend out to more than 30 km, with the New York City island being somewhat larger. The results from both arrays reveal the influence of the surroundings, with large scatter of daytime results being characteristic of sites with the greatest local surface inhomogeneity. Nighttime data are more ordered, and suggest that surface air temperatures decrease by about 0.02°C km−1 for the Washington case, and 0.04°C km−1 for New York, with the winter behaviour being more pronounced than for other seasons. Scatter of the data in the daytime is a common feature for all seasons, but mainly for those with the strongest insolation. Comparison between working day and weekend temperatures provides convincing verification that the air responds quite slowly to changes in surface (radiometric) temperatures, with distance constants of the order of many tens of km. There appears to be a small wind speed effect, which is evident in the nighttime data but is largely obscured by scatter for the daytime.  相似文献   

14.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This paper addresses the course, extent, and impacts of a windstorm that occurred on 20–21 December 1740, in the Czech Lands. The analysis is based on...  相似文献   

15.
Summary The temperature T of a black or gray body orbiting the Sun can be expressed in terms of spherical harmonics in latitude and longitude, its Keplerian orbital elements, and a variable describing rotation about its axis. Assuming that the Earth is a black or gray body without thermal inertia, the resulting equation for T exhibits previously unrecognized odd-degree zonal terms dubbed Seversmith psychroterms. They cause a hemispheric temperature difference which depends upon e sin S, where e is the orbital eccentricity and S is the Suns argument of perigee measured in an Earth-centered frame. The hemisphere containing perihelion is the cooler. For a gray body with the Earths average albedo of 0.3, an emissivity of unity, and an obliquity of 23.5°, the pole-to-pole temperature difference for the combined first and third degree spherical harmonic psychroterms can reach 3.4K for the present eccentricity of 0.016, and 12.9K for the maximum eccentricity of 0.06. While a thermally inertia-less black or gray body with boiling hot subsolar points and nights at absolute zero are poor models for the Earth, the Seversmith psychroterms will survive in more realistic models (although with smaller amplitudes) because the Earth radiates nonlinearly in T. The psychroterms acts in the direction opposite to the Milankovitch precession index, which also depends on e sin S: by warming the cool northern summers, the psychroterms make it harder for the traditional Milankovitch mechanism to operate. The Seversmith psychroterms could in fact be responsible for the ice sheets that cycle with e sin S, instead of the Milankovitch mechanism. By cooling the southern hemisphere for thousands of years when perihelion is in the south, the psychroterms may somehow cause the southern hemisphere to control the northern ice sheets associated with the 23kyr and 19kyr periods (kyr=103 years), possibly through ice-albedo feedback in the sea ice surrounding Antarctica. Two other unexpected features besides the psychroterms are: while the average insolation increases with increasing e, the average temperature of the Earth paradoxically decreases; and the equator-to-pole temperature difference of 21K on a gray body with an albedo equal to 0.3 and an emissivity of unity is actually smaller than the observed difference of 28K on the real Earth.  相似文献   

16.
Running variance analysis and maximum entropy spectral analysis applied to Mount Wilson rotation data yield arguments in favor of a connection between variations in the Sun's rotation rate, energetic X-ray flares, and impulses of the torque (IOT) in the Sun's irregular motion about the barycenter of the planetary system. Such IOT, that have been shown to be related to the secular cycle of solar activity and excursions of the Maunder minimum type, also seem to be linked to outstanding peaks in geomagnetic activity, maxima in ozone concentration, incidence of blocking type circulation, as well as rainfall over Central Europe, England/Wales, eastern United States, and India. Statistical tests, that confirm these links, additionally point to IOT connection with temperature in Central Europe and the number of icebergs that pass south of latitude 48° N. IOT relationship with X-ray flares and strong geomagnetic storms was tested in successful long range forecasts.Glossary of Abbreviated Terms A c Equatorial angular sidereal solar rotation rate corrected for scattered light and averaged over respective Carrington rotations. - c-events See JU-CM-CSc. - CM Center of mass of the solar system. - CS Center of the Sun. - L Change of angular momentum L in the Sun's orbital motion about CM caused by an impulse of the torque (IOT). This change is measured by the time integral of the torque . - df Degrees of freedom. - g-events See JU-CM-CSg. - IOT Impulse of the torque in the Sun's irregular orbital motion about the center of mass of the solar system CM. The intensity of IOT is measured by the change in angular momentum L effected by the impulse. - JU-CM-CS Solar system constellation that is formed when the center of mass CM, the Sun's center CS and the giant planet Jupiter (JU) are in line. JU-CM-CS events initiate impulses of the torque IOT in the Sun's irregular revolution about CM. - JU-CM-CSc JU-CM-CS event that is accompanied with a sharp increase in orbital angular momentum and centrifugal motion of the Sun away from CM. - JU-CM-CSg JU-CM-CS event that goes along with a steep decrease in orbital angular momentum L and centripetal motion of the Sun toward CM due to prevailing gravitation. - L Angular momentum of the Sun's orbital motion around CM. - T Torque, the varying rotary force applied to the Sun in its orbital motion about CM that is equal to the time rate of change of the angular momentum L. - v Running variance: the smoothing technique of running means over two or more consecutive readings is applied to variance, the square of the standard deviation.  相似文献   

17.
Shipboard measurements of temperature fluctuations, mean wind, temperature, and humidity permit comparisons to be made of experimental and empirical estimates of ct 2, the temperature structure function parameter. Surface flux estimates are obtained from bulk aerodynamic formulae. Temperature fluctuation data are selected to minimize a salt-contamination effect which causes increases in temperature variance. Predictions for CT 2 based on surface flux scaling agree within 20%, except for near neutral and large unstable conditions where disagreement can be attributed to measurement problems.  相似文献   

18.
Shanghai is a low-lying city (3–4?m elevation) surrounded on three sides by the East China Sea, the Yangtze River Estuary, and Hangzhou Bay. With a history of rapid changes in sea level and land subsidence, Shanghai is often plagued by extreme typhoon storm surges. The interaction of sea level rise, land subsidence, and storm surges may lead to more complex, variable, and abrupt disasters. In this paper, we used MIKE 21 models to simulate the combined effect of this disaster chain in Shanghai. Projections indicate that the sea level will rise 86.6?mm, 185.6?mm, and 433.1?mm by 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively. Anthropogenic subsidence is a serious problem. The maximum annual subsidence rate is 24.12?mm/year. By 2100, half of Shanghai is projected to be flooded, and 46?% of the seawalls and levees are projected to be overtopped. The risk of flooding is closely related to the impact of land subsidence on the height of existing seawalls and levees. Land subsidence increases the need for flood control measures in Shanghai.  相似文献   

19.
Amines are important for new particle formation and subsequent growth in the atmosphere. Consequently, the processes involved are receiving more attention in recent years. Here, we conduct a field observation in order to investigate the atmospheric particulate amines at a background site in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) during the summer of 2018.Four amines in PM_(2.5), i.e., methylamine(MA), dimethylamine(DMA), diethylamine(DEA), and trimethylamine(TMA),were collected, twice daily and analyzed. During the campaign, our measurements found the concentrations of MA, DMA,DEA, and TMA of 15.0 ± 15.0, 6.3 ± 6.9, 20.4 ± 30.1, and 4.0 ± 5.9 ng m–3, respectively, and the four amines correlated well with each other. The concentration of amines appear to be independent of whether they were collected during the day or night. Both MA and DMA exhibited a bimodal size distribution that had peaks at 0.67 and 1.1 μm, suggesting amines preferably distribute on submicron particles. Boundary layer height(BLH), relative humidity, and pH of aerosols were found have a negative relationship with amines, while aerosol liquid water content(ALWC) was found to have a positive relationship with amines. The PMF(positive matrix factorization) source apportionment results showed that the main source of amines in Chongming Island was of anthropogenic origin such as industrial and biomass emission, followed by marine sources including sea salt and marine biogenic sources. Given that the YRD region is still suffering from complex atmospheric pollution and that the knowledge on aerosol amines is still limited, more field studies are in urgent need for a better understanding of the pollution characteristics of amines.  相似文献   

20.
The vertical and horizontal temperature structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) were studied using aircraft observations made in the lowest 2.4 km above ground level during the summer monsoon.The vertical temperature structure of the ABL in the region may be classified into the following four categories.Category The ABL consisted of two layers of thickness 700–900 m separated by a thin transition layer. The lapse rates in the former two layers were dry adiabatic.Category The lowest layer of the ABL of thickness 400–600 m was adiabatically stratified and the overlying layer was stable with gradients of potential temperature 4–5°C km–1. The stable layer contained a thin adiabatic stratified layer of 200–300 m thickness at a height of 1.5 km.Category The lowest 200–400 m layer of the ABL was adiabatically stratified and the overlying layer was stable with potential temperature gradients of 5–6 °C km1.Category The ABL was mainly stable with potential temperature gradients of 6 °C km–1 or greater. Occasionally thin layers with adiabatic stratification were found embedded in the ABL.The temperature distribution of the horizontal temperature at 900 m was mainly normal. The high-frequency portion of the spectra lying between 0.05 and 0.16 Hz (corresponding to wave length 1 km to 300 m) oscillated around the –\2/3 power law line. The spectral curve showed a significant peak at 0.011 Hz having a wave-length of 5 km.Department of Geoscience, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, 27650, U.S.A.  相似文献   

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