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《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2017,(8)
捕捞压力和气候变化是影响渔业资源数量变动的主要因素,会对渔获量产生较大影响。本文通过分析长时间序列的渔业统计资料和气候变化数据,研究了1962—2012年间捕捞压力和气候变化对黄渤海小黄鱼(Pseudosciaena polyactis)渔获量的影响,并应用Fox模型拟合捕捞压力对黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量的影响,同时根据多个气候因子及气候指数的年间变动数据,分析每个显著相关的气候变量对黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量的影响。研究表明,黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量在1962—1971年呈波动下降趋势,在1972—1990年保持平稳状态,在1991—2012年急剧增加。黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量与渤海冬季季风、北太平洋指数(North pacific index,NPI)呈显著负相关(P0.05),与黄海夏季季风、黄海海表温度呈显著正相关(P0.05)。加入气候变量进行优化的Fox模型考虑了捕捞压力和气候变化的影响,该模型拟合的渔获量与统计的渔获量呈极显著相关(P0.01)。研究表明:捕捞压力的增大是导致黄渤海小黄鱼渔获量变动的主要原因,气候变化也会对小黄鱼渔获量产生显著影响。 相似文献
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近年来,黄渤海在对虾、小黄鱼、带鱼等传统主要渔业资源相继衰退的情况下,鲅鱼成了可以替代的唯一大型经济鱼类资源。据统计:1995年以来,黄渤海每年捕捞产量唯一超过10万吨的经济鱼类就是鲅鱼,1997年更是达到18万吨。然而,百姓们在吃到物美价廉的鲅鱼时,却不曾想到这一经济鱼类也正面临着衰竭的危险。有的渔业研究人员则坦言,如果鲅鱼资源继续遭受更严重的破坏,黄渤海渔业生产将步入 相似文献
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利用电感耦合等离子质谱ICP-MS元素分析方法,测定了黄、渤海125尾小黄鱼的耳石元素指纹图谱,共检测到Mg、Al、Mn、Cu、Zn、Sr、Ba、Ca等8种指纹元素。不同采样站位小黄鱼耳石元素含量均存在显著性差异,线性判别分析可以有效识别不同站位的小黄鱼群体,判别成功率为65%~96%,整体判别成功率为86%。基于耳石元素指纹图谱特征进行聚类分析,可以将黄、渤海小黄鱼早期补充群体划分为渤海种群、黄海中部种群和南黄海种群,其中黄海中部种群站位交叉明显。 相似文献
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《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2021,(11)
中国近海大多数渔业都属于数据有限渔业,用对数据要求较高的复杂模型无法对这些渔业资源做出有效评估,因此用数据有限评估模型评估渔业资源的研究具有重要意义。本文使用经典剩余产量模型(CEDA和ASPIC)和两种新型有限数据评估模型(贝叶斯Schaefer剩余产量模型(BSM)和蒙特卡洛MSY估算模型(CMSY)),评估了黄渤海鳀鱼(Engraulis japonicus)、东海带鱼(Trichiurus lepturus)和南海金线鱼(Nemipterus virgatus)这三种重要渔业资源的生物学参考点和资源现状。研究表明:黄渤海鳀鱼MSY估计值为80×10~4～83×10~4 t,生物学参考点F/F_(MSY)估计值小于1.0而B/B_(MSY)略小于1.0,表明这种渔业捕捞强度适中但资源尚未得到完全恢复。东海带鱼MSY估计值为58×10~4～64×10~4 t,F/F_(MSY)估计值大于1.0而B/B_(MSY)估计值小于1.0,表明这种渔业存在过度捕捞且资源已经衰退。南海金线鱼MSY为30×10~4～32×10~4 t,F/F_(MSY)估计值大于1.0而B/B_(MSY)估计值小于1.0,表明这种渔业存在过度捕捞且资源已经衰退。以上4种模型均可适用于中国近海数据有限的渔业资源,但两种经典剩余产量模型对三种渔业数据的拟合不够稳定(相关系数R~2波动较大),因此取BSM和CMSY模型的评估结果作为重要参考,但这两种有限数据评估模型的拟合效果尚需进行深入研究。 相似文献
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适用于短生命周期种类资源评估模型的研究现状与展望 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《海洋湖沼通报》2015,(3)
近几十年来随着传统鱼类资源衰退,短生命周期种类的资源量和捕捞产量出现了增长,并已成为世界海洋捕捞业的重要捕捞对象,为使渔业资源可持续利用,必须制定合理的渔业管理计划,实现对渔业资源的科学管理。对渔业资源进行科学的评估是制定渔业管理计划的基础,渔业资源评估模型则是进行渔业资源评估的重要工具,对短生命周期种类资源进行科学评估和管理是一个极为重要的课题。但是短生命周期种类具有生命周期短、生长快、资源丰富以及产卵种群多的特点,资源量极易受海洋环境影响的独特的生活史特征,使得世界各国对短生命周期种类资源评估和管理的研究处在发展初期。本文首先介绍了短生命周期种类的生物学特点,接着简要介绍了传统资源评估模型的分类,最后详细阐述了目前应用于短生命周期种类的资源评估模型与方法,同时,本文对渔业资源评估模型中存在的问题进行了探讨,并对其未来的发展进行了展望。 相似文献
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海域承载力（MCC）是判断海洋可持续发展能力的重要依据。文章从压力与承压力两方面构建包含海洋经济系统、海洋生态系统和海洋社会系统的MCC评价指标体系。基于2005—2014年中国沿海11个省（直辖市、自治区）的空间面板数据，运用状态空间法、Moran’s I指数和β收敛模型定量刻画MCC在中国三大海区间的空间差异及其收敛性。研究发现，一方面中国MCC常年处于超载状态，改善速度缓慢，总体不容乐观，且地理位置邻近或海洋经济发展水平相当的地区间MCC不存在显著的空间自相关；另一方面，MCC在三大海区间存在空间差异性，其中东海和南海MCC较高且承载状态改善较大，黄渤海MCC较低且未见明显改善。同时，MCC空间差异处于条件收敛过程，存在MCC较落后地区的追赶效应，但收敛趋势并不稳固。其中黄渤海MCC空间差异的收敛速度最快，南海次之，东海较慢。尤为有趣的发现是条件β收敛模型报告的结果显示各控制变量对不同海区MCC变化影响的相关性和显著性不同。南海MCC变化的动因在于海洋经济规模和社会支持力度的提高；东海MCC提升速度的加快存在显著的人口红利效应；与东海和南海不同，海洋经济的发展并非黄渤海MCC变化的显著动因，同时海洋环境污染的加重会显著降低黄渤海MCC的提升速度。此外，利用效率低下使得社会支持力度的加大对黄渤海MCC的提升收效甚微。 相似文献
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海州湾中时空和环境因子对桩张网捕捞小黄鱼的影响 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2015,(9)
为研究海州湾海区小黄鱼资源的时空分布,并对桩张网的使用提供指导。根据2011—2013年海州湾典型捕捞区域4个站位桩张网小黄鱼的连续调查数据,利用广义加模型(GAM)分析小黄鱼渔获量与时空及环境因子的关系。研究表明,广义加模型可较好的解释小黄鱼时空分布与环境因子关系,模型拟合度较高(Pseudo-R2=80.2%),模型残差基本符合模型假定。对小黄鱼单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)具有显著影响的各因子的重要性依次为:月份、位置、海水表层温度。调查3年内,小黄鱼CPUE年际间没有显著变化,但季节间,秋季CPUE明显高于春季,表明小黄鱼分布有季节性差异并受伏季休渔影响。空间因子对小黄鱼CPUE影响显著,B、C站位小黄鱼CPUE高于A、D站位。海水表层温度(SST)为5~18℃时,小黄鱼CPUE随温度升高而增加;18~25℃时,随温度升高,小黄鱼CPUE没有显著变化。研究结果表明,月份、位置和海水表面温度对海州湾小黄鱼的渔获率影响显著。本研究为提高张网捕捞效率及可持续利用小黄鱼资源提供理论参考。 相似文献
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东海马鲛鱼(Scomberomorus Niphonius)的种群动态易受海洋环境条件的影响,在其资源评估和管理中需要考虑海洋环境条件的作用。假设马鲛鱼产卵场最适海表温度10～19℃(Suitable SST,Tsui)范围会影响种群环境容纳量(K),因此分别使用产卵季3月最适表温范围比值(Tsui-Mar)、4月最适表温范围比值(Tsui-Apr)和3、4月份最适表温范围比值的平均值(Tsui-Ave)作为剩余产量模型的环境因子,构建三种基于环境因子的剩余产量模型(environmentally dependent surplus production,EDSP),分别为Tsui-MarEDSP、Tsui-Apr-EDSP和Tsui-Ave-EDSP,利用贝叶斯估计模型参数,结果显示Tsui-Mar、Tsui-Apr、Tsui-Ave三个基于环境因子的EDSP模型偏差信息标准(deviance information criterion,DIC)值小于传统的剩余产量模型的DIC值,其中Tsui-Ave-EDSP模型DIC值最小,精度最高,估计的最大可持续产量(maximum sustainable yield,MSY)的范围为8.125×106～8.371×106 t,资源量(biomass)范围是1.429×106～1.455×106 t,从1994年到2015年,马鲛鱼的捕捞死亡率远低于目标死亡率(Ftar)和MSY水平捕捞死亡率(FMSY),种群资源量高于MSY水平资源量(BMSY)。东海马鲛鱼没有被过度捕捞或未发生过度捕捞,基于EDSP模型中的管理参考点更为保守,建议日后东海马鲛鱼的种群评估和管理应考虑产卵场环境条件。 相似文献
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昼夜垂直移动对黄海中南部小黄鱼可捕系数的影响 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
鱼类的昼夜垂直移动是影响渔业资源调查可捕系数的重要因素之一，对调查获得的各种渔获物资源量指数（abundance index，AI）进行校正，对优化估计物种的空间分布和资源量估算有重要作用。本文以黄海中南部小黄鱼为例，利用2006-2009年和2011年黄海秋季底拖网渔业资源调查数据，应用地理统计二阶广义线性混合模型，量化了昼夜时段对黄海中南部小黄鱼AI的影响。不同昼夜时段对AI的随机效应系数表明，在黄海中南部秋季渔业资源调查中，底拖网对小黄鱼的可捕系数存在明显的昼夜变化:在午夜23点到凌晨3点间，可捕系数最低；凌晨3点后，可捕系数逐渐增大，直至9点达到峰值；在中午10点至下午16点，可捕系数小幅度降低后保持相对稳定，随后急剧下降；傍晚19点以后，可捕系数处于相对较低水平，直至午夜23点后降至最低水平。本研究通过地理统计二阶广义线性混合模型，去除了昼夜垂直移动对小黄鱼可捕系数的影响，预测的小黄鱼空间密度分布与其AI实际观测值以及渔场空间格局基本一致。另外，模型估计的2006-2009年和2011年秋季黄海中南部小黄鱼的总资源量指数相对扫海面积法的估计值精确度更高，且其变动趋势与黄海中南部沿岸两省（山东和江苏）小黄鱼次年总渔获量的变动情况一致。 相似文献
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中国近海主要鱼类种群变动与生活史型的演变 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
物种为了种族的延续和繁衍,在历史的长河中,通过自然选择形成了适应其生存的一系列生态学特征,即生活史的选择型。具有不同生活史型鱼种的数量变动形式也不同,换言之,种群数量的变动方式是各个种生活史的反映,种群动态与其生活史选择型有着密切关系。
随着海洋渔业的发展,以及人类对海洋渔业资源开发与利用的增强,一些传统经济种类的资源受到严重威胁。有的资源潜力削弱,甚至有的生物种群的再生机制受到破坏,使其资源面临着枯竭的危险。在强大的捕捞压力下,海洋渔业资源的结构发生了很大变化。生命周期长的种类被生命周期短的种类所代替;传统的经济种类被低质的小型种类所代替。渔业组成处于不断变化和演替之中,水域生态系统的结构与功能将会发生变化,生态平衡将遭到破坏。
对各个生物种群来说,上述变化将不同程度地改变它们的生存条件。物种为了延续和生存,通过自然选择对其所处的环境进行适应性调节,因而,种群原有的生态学特征将产生一系列的变化,如生长速度提高、性成熟加快等。在渐变过程中,物种生活史选择方向也将发生变化。研究鱼类种群的变动及其生活史型的演变过程,对科学利用海洋渔业资源和保护物种的多样性,在实践和理论上都具有重要意义。 相似文献
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应用一种基于产量数据评估方法对东海三个重要渔业的资源评估 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Most fisheries in China do not have maximum sustainable yield(MSY) estimates due to limited and poor data.Therefore, finding a common method to estimate MSY or total allowable catch(TAC) for fishery management is necessary. MSYs of three important fisheries in the East China Sea were evaluated through a catch-based model.Estimates for intrinsic rate of increase(r) and five levels of process error were considered. Results showed hairtail Trichiurus japonicas(Temminck and Schlegel) and small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis(Bleeker) fisheries experienced overfishing from the mid-1990 s to the early 2000 s, and the suggested TACs were 55.8×10~4 t and9.06×10~4 t, respectively. Decades of overfishing in wintering and spawning grounds of large yellow croaker Larimichthys crocea(Richardson) caused the fishery's collapse in the 1980 s, and it has not recovered until today.The Catch–MSY model generated similar estimated MSYs with other methods and may be a useful choice for the assessment of regional stocks in China. 相似文献
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Projection models are commonly used to evaluate the impacts of fishing. However, previously developed projection tools were not suitable for China's fisheries as they are either overly complex and data-demanding or too simple to reflect the realistic management measures. Herein, an intermediate-complexity projection model was developed that could adequately describe fish population dynamics and account for management measures including mesh size limits, summer closure, and spatial closure. A two-patch operating model was outlined for the projection model and applied to the heavily depleted but commercially important small yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis) fishery in the Haizhou Bay, China, as a case study. The model was calibrated to realistically capture the fisheries dynamics with hindcasting. Three simulation scenarios featuring different fishing intensities based on status quo and maximum sustainable yield(MSY) were proposed and evaluated with projections. Stochastic projections were additionally performed to investigate the influence of uncertainty associated with recruitment strengths and the implementation of control targets. It was found that fishing at FMSY level could effectively rebuild the depleted stock biomass, while the stock collapsed rapidly in the status quo scenario. Uncertainty in recruitment and implementation could result in variabilities in management effects; but they did not much alter the management effects of the FMSY scenario. These results indicate that the lack of science-based control targets in fishing mortality or catch limits has hindered the achievement of sustainable fisheries in China. Overall, the presented work highlights that the developed projection model can promote the understanding of the possible consequences of fishing under uncertainty and is applicable to other fisheries in China. 相似文献
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Fixed-station sampling design was widely used in fishery-independent surveys because of its characteristics of convenient sampling station setting, but the non-probabilistic(fixed) nature made it more uncertainty of drawing inferences on population. The performance of fixed-station sampling design for multispecies survey has not been evaluated, and we are uncertain if the design could detect the temporal trends of different populations in multispecies fishery-independent survey. In this study, s... 相似文献
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Pseudopleuronectes yokamae (Günther) is one of the most important economic fish species in the genus living specially in the northwest Pacific, and is distributed in the southern area of the far east sea of Russia, Japan, Korea, the Huanghai Sea, the Bohai Sea and the northern area of the East China Sea. Usually they live in nearshore waters of these areas as geographic subpopulations. P. yokamae in the Sheath Bay belongs to a local group of the Huanghai-Bohai Sea subpopulation and is distributed in the mouth and adjacent waters of the bay all the year round, and the catch of its spawning group has important economic value in the area. In this paper the fishery biology features of spawning group of P. yokamae in the Sheath Bay is systematically studied to give biology evidence for proper utilization and the multiplification of its resources. 相似文献
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Monthly fishery survey data of the small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis in the southern Yellow Sea from2003 and 2013 were employed to evaluate the variation in the resource distribution and biological characteristics(especially body length and sex ratio) in the population on a decadal scale.The results indicated that the small yellow croaker migrated from the Shawai fishing ground to the Dasha fishing ground in spring and was mainly distributed in the central and western parts of the Dasha fishing ground in April and May.Larimichthys polyactis in the Dasha fishing ground migrated eastward to offshore wintering grounds in autumn and reached the central Dasha fishing ground in October and November.The small yellow croaker entered the western waters of the Shawai fishing ground in winter.A large number of age 0+ fish occurred in the Shawai and Jiangwai fishing grounds in October of 2003 and 2013.The body lengths of the spawning stock and wintering stock in 2013 were larger than those in 2003,and the monthly sex ratios(female to male) were significantly less than 1 in both years.The monthly distribution of this fish in the southern Yellow Sea was consistent with a previous finding that "the stock migrated between the wintering grounds in the west of Jeju Island and the Lüsi spawning grounds" but tended to move more northward,with the spawning grounds extending outward.In the past decade,body length variation experienced a decline after an increase,rather than a steady decrease.The sex ratio in the single-stick stow net showed a tendency to increase over the decade,but was either less than or more than 1 depending on the fishing gear;therefore,further studies should be conducted to determine the sex structure. 相似文献
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In Europe, 88% of fish stocks are being fished beyond Maximum Sustainable Yield and 30% of stocks are outside of biological limits. The blue whiting fishery is also following a consistent trend of a declining, and the EU recently adopted a 93% quota decrease for this species. Despite the abundant literature related to genetic aspects of population structure of aquatic resources, few studies have specifically addressed the link between fisheries management and population genetics. Given potential differences in the behavior of different subpopulations, population genetics has great relevance in the correct interpretation of the evolution of stocks. Ignoring the congruence of spatial scales between the population structure of fish species and management units can result in reduced productivity and local reduction of populations. 相似文献
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Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios(δ~(18)O and δ~(13)C) in otoliths were used to identify the stock structure of small yellow croaker,Larimichthys polyactis.Otoliths were collected from fish at five locations across the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea representing most of their distributional range and fisheries areas.The significant differences in the isotopic signatures showed that the five locations could be chemically distinguished and clearly separated,indicating stock subdivision.Correlation of δ~(18)O and δ~(13)C values suggested that population of L.polyactis could be divided into the Bohai Sea group,the southern Yellow Sea group and the central Yellow Sea group.Discriminant analysis of δ~(18)O and δ~(13)C values demonstrated a high significant difference with 85.7% classification accuracy.The spatial separation of L.polyactis indicated a complex stock structure across the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea.These results indicate that optimal fisheries management may require a comprehensive consideration on the current spatial arrangements.This study has provided further evidence that measurement of the stable isotopes ratios in otolith can be a valuable tool in the delineation of fishery management units. 相似文献