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本文用线性回归分析方法，分１９８５年以前和１９９２年以前两个时段，对我国沿岩２５个验潮站近百年来的海平面资料进行了系统分析，计算了两个时段相对海平面变化的年速率和平均海面高度，论述了海平面变化的主要控制因素，并对未来海平面变化趋势进行了预测。计算结果表明，近百年来我国沿岸相对海平面在总体上不但持续上升，而且近年来上升速率普遍加快；根据海平面变化的主要控制因素变化趋向，预计到下世纪中叶前后，全球性海 相似文献
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中国沿岸现代海平面变化及未来趋势分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文用线性回归分析方法，分１９８５年以前和１９９２年以前两个时段，对我国沿岸２５个验潮站近百年来的海平面资料进行了系统分析，计算了两个时段相对海平面变化的年速率和平均海面高度，论述了海平面变化的主要控制因素，并对未来海平面变化趋势进行了预测。计算结果表明，近百年来我国沿岸相对海平面在总体上不但持续上升，而且近年来上升速率普遍加快；根据海平面变化的主要控制因素变化趋向，预计到下世纪中叶前后，全球性海平面大幅度上升的可能性不大，我国沿岸区域性海乎面平均上升幅度不超过１５ｃｍ，不同岸段因地壳升降差异性大而有较大差别。 相似文献
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全球海平面的年变率与21世纪预测 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4
本文应用全球的验潮站海平面资料，求出全球海平面上升年变率为０．１５－０．１６ｃｍ／ａ，且提出采用全球海平面年变率的全球海平面的预测法与２１世纪的预测值，并把成果和结论与国际上的比较；同时指出和纠正了以前一些学者的部分错误成果和预测结论。 相似文献
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海平面变化包含多种不同时间尺度信息，传统的预测方法仅对海平面变化趋势项、周期项进行拟合，难以利用海平面变化的不同时间尺度信号，使得预测精度不高。本文基于深度学习的预测模型，提出一种融合小波变换（wavelet transform，WT）与LSTM （long short-term memory，LSTM）神经网络的海平面异常组合预测模型。首先利用小波分解得到反映海平面变化总体趋势的低频分量和刻画主要细节信息的高频分量；然后通过LSTM神经网络对代表不同时间尺度的各个分量预测和重构，实现海平面变化的非线性预测。基于该模型的海平面变化预测的均方根误差、平均绝对误差和相关系数分别为12.76 mm、9.94 mm和0.937，预测精度均优于LSTM和EEMD-LSTM预测模型，WT-LSTM组合模型对区域海平面变化预测具有较好的应用价值。 相似文献
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相对海平面上升对中国沿海地区的可能影响 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
本文论述了相对海平面变化研究的重要性，并在IPCC提供的全球海平面变化背景值之上，给出中国未来几十年相对海平面变化的预测值。中国大河三角洲地区未来几十年相对海平面皆呈上升趋势，但幅度不同。因此，充分认识相对海平面上升将导致的危害就显得极为重要和迫切。相对海平面上升将对中国沿海地区产生以下影响：(1)导致海岸侵蚀，扩大侵蚀范围；(2)风暴潮强度与频率增加：(3)沿海低地与湿地被淹没；(4)海水入侵加剧，范围扩大，水资源和水环境遭到破坏；(5)防汛工程功能降低，洪涝灾害加剧。因此，沿海地区政府决策应考虑未来相对海平面变化的影响。 相似文献
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利用中国沿岸验潮站GNSS和邻近地区陆态网络GNSS基准站观测数据,结合卫星高度计和验潮站海平面观测数据分析了中国沿海验潮站及其邻近地区陆地垂直运动特征。中国沿海海平面观测以及验潮站和陆态网GNSS基准站观测结果显示,中国沿海省区市及沿海验潮站陆地垂直运动总体表现为：辽宁至江苏沿海上升、上海至福建泉州沿海沉降、福建厦门至广西沿海升降交替的格局,局部滨海平原地区如华北平原天津南部、河北平原的沧县则表现出显著的沉降特征。验潮站陆地的抬升与沉降是沿海相对海平面变化的重要组成部分,准确掌握验潮站及其邻近区域的陆地垂直运动特征,可为沿海相对海平面变化分析、海平面变化影响评估以及未来海平面上升预测提供依据。 相似文献
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中国近海海平面变化区域相关分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
由测高卫星升、降弧段海面高交叉点约束方法，用TOPEX／POSEIDON测高数据计算了黄海、东海、南海海域的海平面变化；分析了三个海区海平面变化的相关性；在频域内讨论了它们之间的相干性；分析了海水面积随纬度带的变化对不同纬度分布的海区海平面变化量的影响。 相似文献
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本文讨论了在建立海平面变化曲线中,基准面的选择、潮汐成因的误差与潮位修正、海平面标志物高程确定、海平面标志物高程的变动与修正(地壳升降、沉积物均衡沉降、水均衡沉降、沉积物的压实)以及古海面标志物年龄测定的误差等问题。 相似文献
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The long-term time series analysis of the SST (sea surface temperature) in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the monthly MSL (mean sea level) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is conducted. Their quasiperiodic and low-frequency oscillation features are revealed. The significant periods of low-frequency fluctuations for monthly MSL in the area of 20°N-20° S are between 43. 5 months and 50. 0 months, approximating closely to 47. 6 months which is the significant period of SST in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean. From the results of space-spectral analysis, the low-frequency fluctations of monthly MSL in the tropical Pacific Ocean appear to have a anticlockwise circularly-propagating pattern, which is, the Eastern Pacific Ocean (off-shore of Mexico) →the area of NEC (North Equatorial Current) →the Western Equatorial Pacific Ocean→the area of NECC (North Equatorial Counter-Current)→the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phases of the pattern correspond to those of El Nino cycle. On the basis 相似文献
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东海沿海季节性海平面异常成因 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Based on the analysis of sea level, air temperature, sea surface temperature(SST), air pressure and wind data during 1980–2013, the causes of seasonal sea level anomalies in the coastal region of the East China Sea(ECS) are investigated. The research results show:(1) sea level along the coastal region of the ECS takes on strong seasonal variation. The annual range is 30–45 cm, larger in the north than in the south. From north to south, the phase of sea level changes from 140° to 231°, with a difference of nearly 3 months.(2) Monthly mean sea level(MSL)anomalies often occur from August to next February along the coast region of the ECS. The number of sea level anomalies is at most from January to February and from August to October, showing a growing trend in recent years.(3) Anomalous wind field is an important factor to affect the sea level variation in the coastal region of the ECS. Monthly MSL anomaly is closely related to wind field anomaly and air pressure field anomaly. Wind-driven current is essentially consistent with sea surface height. In August 2012, the sea surface heights at the coastal stations driven by wind field have contributed 50%–80% of MSL anomalies.(4) The annual variations for sea level,SST and air temperature along the coastal region of the ECS are mainly caused by solar radiation with a period of12 months. But the correlation coefficients of sea level anomalies with SST anomalies and air temperature anomalies are all less than 0.1.(5) Seasonal sea level variations contain the long-term trends and all kinds of periodic changes. Sea level oscillations vary in different seasons in the coastal region of the ECS. In winter and spring, the oscillation of 4–7 a related to El Ni?o is stronger and its amplitude exceeds 2 cm. In summer and autumn, the oscillations of 2–3 a and quasi 9 a are most significant, and their amplitudes also exceed 2 cm. The height of sea level is lifted up when the different oscillations superposed. On the other hand, the height of sea level is fallen down. 相似文献
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验潮站观测的海面高度数据是监测海平面变化以及确定平均海面时常使用的重要基础观测信息,针对平均海面以及相对海平面变化速率在不同时段观测资料下结果的差异进行了分析,统计了不同时间尺度平均海面确定的差异,并设计了两组数据实验,具体讨论了不同年份19年观测以及观测时长逐年累加两种情况下,相对海平面变化速率确定结果的规律。实验结果表明,月平均海面具有明显的季节性变化,最大互差可达几十厘米,1年平均海面基本稳定,19年平均海面精度可达厘米级;利用19年的观测资料确定的相对海平面变化速率反映的观测时段内海平面的变化情况,各时段结果差异较大且可靠性较低;为获得稳定可靠的相对海平面变化速率,观测时长应至少涵盖两个潮汐变化周期。 相似文献
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Sea‐level data from two sites in northern New Zealand, along with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), are analysed for interannual and decadal variability using wavelets. The analysis shows, using statistically significant wavelet power, there is a significant relationship between mean sea level (MSL) and SOI. However, the relationship is highly variable, both in magnitude and in the range of time‐scales over which it occurs. This non‐stationarity necessitates the use of techniques such as wavelets for analysis. An interdecadal response in MSL around northern New Zealand has been isolated, with shifts occurring in 1950 and the late 1970s. This behaviour in MSL appears to coincide with shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, thought previously to be largely centred in the North Pacific. A strong correlation between SOI and sea surface temperature (SST) is also demonstrated. This relationship appears to be stable in magnitude (a large change in SOI produces a large change in SST) and to occur over the same range of time‐scales. More SST and MSL data are required for other parts of New Zealand to determine whether these findings apply elsewhere. 相似文献
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厦门岛海滩剖面对9914号台风大浪波动力的快速响应 总被引：17，自引：1，他引：17
根据 9914号台风发生前后对厦门岛滨岸海滩剖面地形的重复测量结果及有关台风要素和潮位的实测资料 ,探讨了台风袭击厦门岛期间海滩的变形特征和侵蚀状态。分析得出 ,海滩地形受台风暴浪冲击普遍发生急剧变化。横向冲淤变形以东岸海滩为最剧烈 :滩肩蚀退可达 2 5m ;滩面呈上冲下淤 ,上段和滩肩的单宽冲蚀量达 30m3 /m ;下段单宽淤积量达 17m3 /m ;剖面类型由滩肩式断面向沙坝式断面转变。这种变形特点是在台风大浪波动力和潮位暴涨的双重作用下造成的。台风期间 ,沿岸输沙能力以北岸最高 ,南岸次之 ,东岸较低 ;且自南岸到东岸 ,随着沿岸输沙量减少 ,横向变形相应有增大的趋势。这是9914号台风以偏东方向袭击厦门的结果。表明不同方向海岸岸滩地形对同一台风大浪波动力作用具有不同响应特征。 相似文献
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宁德地区是我国受风暴潮影响较为严重的区域之一,同时也是宁德核电站等众多沿海大型工程所在地.鉴于该区域特殊的地理位置和海洋灾害的严重性,以宁德核电站为中心,对该区域所面临风暴潮风险的特征参数进行全面、综合的定量评估,包括潮汐特征、平均海平面变化、台风和风暴潮基本特征,特别是可能最大风暴潮的计算.研究结果表明,该区域10%超越频率的天文潮高、低潮位分别为355、-341 cm;平均海平面变化速率为0.162 cm/a;千年一遇的台风中心气压约为895h Pa,该气压时的最大台风风速半径为40 km.在进行大量敏感性实验的基础上,对台风移速、移向和风暴增水/减水的关系,以及增水和减水的差异就行了详细的研究,得出:台风增水主要是由移向在305°左右(295°~315°)、路过核电站下方(核电站以南)的台风引起,且增水随台风移速增大而增大;可能最大台风风暴增水由路径经过核电厂址南40 km的台风(移向295°、移速28 km/h)引起,最大台风增水值为526.8 cm;对于可能最大台风减水而言,最有利于台风风暴减水的移向在355°~360°和0°~15°之间,其中可能最大台风减水为-301.9 cm,由移向5°、移速30 km/h、路径经过核电厂址南30 km(0.75台风最大风速半径)的台风引起. 相似文献
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Jason-1 global statistical evaluation and performance assessment: Calibration and cross-calibration results 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Since Jason-1launch, extensive validation of Jason-1 data and cross-calibration relative to TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) have been performed by the CLS validation team within the CNES Jason-1 project. These validation activities are routinely operated as part of the Jason-1 ground segment, and often lead to in-depth studies to understand all validation conclusions. This paper presents the main results in terms of Jason-1 data quality: verification of data availability and validity, monitoring of the most relevant altimeter and radiometer parameters, assessment of the Jason-1 altimeter system performances. From global statistical analysis of more than 2 years of Jason-1 GDR data, results for all components of the altimeter measurement are derived in terms of bias, trend and precision. This work also represents a contribution to the estimation of the Jason-1 error budget. Thorough studies have been more focused on specific issues in relation to data quality: this is the case for the analysis of the high frequency content of the Jason-1 data and its impact on the T/P to Jason-1 comparison. From the results presented in this paper, it is demonstrated that the Jason-1 mission fulfils the requirements of high precision altimetry. In particular, it allows continuing the observation of the Mean Sea Level (MSL) variations at the same accuracy as T/P, which was one of the challenges of the Jason-1 mission. Potential improvements and open issues are also identified, with the objective of still making progress in terms of altimeter data quality. 相似文献