共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 441 毫秒
1.
Assimilation systems absorb both satellite measurements and Argo observations. This assimilation is essential to diagnose and evaluate the contribution from each type of data to the reconstructed analysis, allowing for better configuration of assimilation parameters. To achieve this, two comparative reconstruction schemes were designed under the optimal interpolation framework. Using a static scheme, an in situ-only field of ocean temperature was derived by correcting climatology with only Argo ... 相似文献
2.
3.
In order to improve the ocean forecasting in the North Sea and Baltic Sea, an assimilation scheme based on a bottom-topography-dependent anisotropic recursive filter has been used in this study. This scheme can stretch or flatten the shape of a local representative contour surface of the background error covariance function into the form of an ellipse. Furthermore, the computing efficiency has been largely improved due to implicit computation of the background error covariance. A two-month experiment has been used for verifying the impact of assimilating ocean profile observations on ocean forecasting. The results indicate that the use of temperature and salinity profiles can largely improve the oceanic forecasting. The root mean square differences between the forecasts and observations for temperature and salinity have been reduced by 36% and 18% in the experiment period, respectively. Moreover, it is found that the anisotropic recursive filter approach is especially efficient in areas with complex coastlines and sharp fronts, e.g., inner Danish waters. The results also show that the propagation of observation information from an observation position to its neighboring grid points is closely related to currents. 相似文献
4.
利用相临过去时段预报结果中同一时刻不同时效的模式预报场差异,计算预报误差协方差,并基于集合-变分混合同化系统将其与静态背景场误差协方差结合,从而在同化系统中构建了具有各向异性和一定流依赖特征的背景场误差协方差。单点观测理想试验显示本方案改善了静态模型化背景场误差协方差的各向同性和流依赖性问题。“凡亚比”台风的一系列同化及模拟试验表明,从台风路径、强度等方面本文方案的效果都要优于三维变分法。本文方案在不需要集合预报,计算量与三维变分法相当的情况下,给同化系统引入了各向异性、一定流依赖特征的背景误差协方差,因此本方案适于在计算资源较为紧缺情况下,对时效要求较高的预报业务中应用。 相似文献
5.
An ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) data assimilation method is applied in the BCC_CSM1.1 to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilations on seasonal forecasts in an idealized twin experiment framework. Pseudo-observations of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), sea surface salinity (SSS), temperature and salinity (T/S) profiles were first generated in a free model run. Then, a series of sensitivity tests initialized with predefined bias were conducted for a one-year period; this involved a free run (CTR) and seven assimilation runs. These tests allowed us to check the analysis field accuracy against the “truth”. As expected, data assimilation improved all investigated quantities; the joint assimilation of all variables gave more improved results than assimilating them separately. One-year predictions initialized from the seven runs and CTR were then conducted and compared. The forecasts initialized from joint assimilation of surface data produced comparable SST root mean square errors to that from assimilation of T/S profiles, but the assimilation of T/S profiles is crucial to reduce subsurface deficiencies. The ocean surface currents in the tropics were better predicted when initial conditions produced by assimilating T/S profiles, while surface data assimilation became more important at higher latitudes, particularly near the western boundary currents. The predictions of ocean heat content and mixed layer depth are significantly improved initialized from the joint assimilation of all the variables. Finally, a central Pacific El Ni?o was well predicted from the joint assimilation of surface data, indicating the importance of joint assimilation of SST, SSH, and SSS for ENSO predictions. 相似文献
6.
在海雾的短时临近预报中,初始场的水汽凝结状态扮演着重要角色。为了改进初始场的云水含量,本文提出直接同化雾体云水信息的思路。针对2011年5月一次大范围的黄海海雾,借助EnKF (Ensemble Kalman Filter)方法,尝试进行了极轨卫星反演云水路径数据的同化试验。结果表明:(1)通过利用EnKF将云水混合比增加到背景场和分析场的控制变量中,构建云水观测数据与背景场之间的关系,实现云水路径数据的直接同化是可行的;(2)同化云水路径可显著改善海面气温与湿度状态,大幅提高海雾预报效果;(3)EnKF能够基于集合体动态统计流依赖的背景误差协方差是其取得良好同化效果的主要原因。值得指出的是,受集合样本误差的影响,需要特别关注云水含量与风之间的相关关系。 相似文献
7.
集合卡尔曼滤波(Ensemble Kalman filter, EnKF)是一种国内外广泛使用的海洋资料同化方案, 用集合成员的状态集合表征模式的背景误差协方差, 结合观测误差协方差, 计算卡尔曼增益矩阵, 有效地将观测信息添加到模式初始场中。由于季节、年际预测很大程度上受到初始场的影响, 因此资料同化可以提高模式的预测性能。本文在NUIST-CFS1.0预测系统逐日SST nudging的初始化方案上, 利用EnKF在每个月末将全场(full field)海表温度(sea surface temperature, SST)、温盐廓线(in-situ temperature and salinity profiles, T-S profiles)以及卫星观测海平面高度异常(sea level anomalies, SLA)观测资料同化到模式初始场中, 对比分析了无海洋资料同化以及加入同化后初始场的区别、加入海洋资料同化后模式提前1~24个月预测性能的差异以及对于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-southern oscillation, ENSO)预测技巧的影响。结果表明, 加入海洋资料同化能有效地改进初始场, 并且呈现随深度增加初始场改进越显著的特征。加入同化后, 对全球SST、次表层海水温度的平均预测技巧均有一定的提高, 也表现出随深度增加预测技巧改进越明显的特征。但加入海洋资料同化后, 模式对ENSO的预测技巧有所下降, 可能是由于模式误差的存在, 使得同化后的预测初始场从接近观测的状态又逐渐恢复到与模式动力相匹配的状态, 加剧了赤道太平洋冷舌偏西、中东部偏暖的气候平均态漂移。 相似文献
8.
Temporal evolution of innovation and residual statistics in the ECMWF variational data assimilation systems 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
HEIKKI JÄRVINEN 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2001,53(3):333-347
The temporal evolution of innovation and residual statistics of the ECMWF 3D‐ and 4D‐Var data assimilation systems have been studied. First, the observational method is applied on an hourly basis to the innovation sequences in order to partition the perceived forecast error covariance into contributions from observation and background errors. The 4D‐Var background turns out to be ignificantly more accurate than the background in the 3D‐Var. The estimated forecast error variance associated with the 4D‐Var background trajectory increases over the assimilation window. There is also a marked broadening of the horizontal error covariance length scale over the assimilation window. Second, the standard deviation of the residuals, i.e., the fit of observations to the analysis is studied on an hourly basis over the assimilation window. This fit should, in theory, reveal the effect of model error in a strong constraint variational problem. A weakly convex curve is found for this fit implying that the perfect model assumption of 4D‐Var may be violated with as short an assimilation window as six hours. For improving the optimality of variational data assimilation systems, a sequence of retunes are needed, until the specified and diagnosed error covariances agree. 相似文献
9.
Two kinds of nonlinear constraints, not previously studied in oceanography, have been adopted with the Preconditioned Optimizing Utility for Large-dimensional analyses (POpULar) in a three-dimensional oceanic variational analysis in the equatorial Pacific. One is the constraint for the variational Quality Control (QC) procedure and the other is used to avoid density and temperature inversions. Estimation of the large heat content anomaly in the upper ocean related to El Nino and La Nina phenomena is improved with the variational QC. For example, it prevents unusual but correct observation data on the thermocline deepening in the 1997/98 El Nino from being ignored. As a result, it improves the temperature field estimation in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The constraint for avoiding inversions prevents the low salinity layer at the surface and the barrier layer in the eastern equatorial Pacific in the El Nino period from being destroyed by the convective adjustment procedure performed after minimizing the cost function. Incorporating nonlinear constraints in variational analyses is thus a strong candidate for increasing the accuracy of analysis. 相似文献
10.
TOPEX/POSEIDON高度计浅海潮汐混淆的初步分析 总被引：22，自引：5，他引：17
根据对卫星轨道特征和观测结果的分析,对TOPEX/POSEIDON(简称T/P)星载高度计在我国近海的潮致混淆现象进行了初步研究.分析表明,在浅海区T/P高度计的观测结果存在很强的潮致高频混淆.NASA分发的地球物理记录中所提供的潮汐订正值虽适用于大洋,但不能有效地除去浅海潮汐.虽然如此,T/P潮致混淆的主要频段的周期小于90d,因而可以通过滤波方法提取周期较长的海面高度季节信号,从而用于季节环流(如南海季风环流)的研究.采用FFT/IFFT方法滤波试验的结果显示,T/P的海面高度观测结果有很高的精度,滤波处理后的海面高度距平变化和地面潮位观测结果一致性良好,上、下行轨道交叉处相邻测点间的标准偏差在3cm左右,可满足南海环流研究的需要. 相似文献
11.
The response of an eddy-permitting ocean model to changes imposed by the use of different mean dynamic topographies (MDT) is analyzed in a multivariate assimilation context, allowing the evaluation of this impact, not only on the surface circulation, but also on the interior ocean representation. The assimilation scheme is a reduced-order sequential Kalman filter (SEEK). In a first set of experiments, high resolution sea surface temperature, along-track sea surface height and sea surface salinity from climatology are assimilated into a 1/3° resolution North and Tropical Atlantic version of the HYCOM model. In a second experiment, in situ profile data are assimilated in addition to the surface measurements.
The first set of experiments illustrates that important differences in the representation of the horizontal model circulation pattern are related to differences in the MDT used. The objective of assimilation is to improve the representation of the 3D ocean state. However, the imperfect representation of the mean dynamic topography appears to be an important limiting factor with regard to the degree of realism obtained in the simulated flow.
Vertical temperature and salinity profiles are key observations to drive a general circulation ocean model toward a more realistic state. The second set of experiments shows that assimilating them in addition to sea surface measurements is a far from trivial exercise. A specific difficulty is due to inconsistencies between the dynamic topography diagnosed from in situ observations and that diagnosed from sea surface height. These two fields obtained from different data sources do not contain exactly the same information. In order to overcome this difficulty, a strategy is proposed and validated. 相似文献
The first set of experiments illustrates that important differences in the representation of the horizontal model circulation pattern are related to differences in the MDT used. The objective of assimilation is to improve the representation of the 3D ocean state. However, the imperfect representation of the mean dynamic topography appears to be an important limiting factor with regard to the degree of realism obtained in the simulated flow.
Vertical temperature and salinity profiles are key observations to drive a general circulation ocean model toward a more realistic state. The second set of experiments shows that assimilating them in addition to sea surface measurements is a far from trivial exercise. A specific difficulty is due to inconsistencies between the dynamic topography diagnosed from in situ observations and that diagnosed from sea surface height. These two fields obtained from different data sources do not contain exactly the same information. In order to overcome this difficulty, a strategy is proposed and validated. 相似文献
12.
The response of an eddy-permitting ocean model to changes imposed by the use of different mean dynamic topographies (MDT) is analyzed in a multivariate assimilation context, allowing the evaluation of this impact, not only on the surface circulation, but also on the interior ocean representation. The assimilation scheme is a reduced-order sequential Kalman filter (SEEK). In a first set of experiments, high resolution sea surface temperature, along-track sea surface height and sea surface salinity from climatology are assimilated into a 1/3° resolution North and Tropical Atlantic version of the HYCOM model. In a second experiment, in situ profile data are assimilated in addition to the surface measurements. The first set of experiments illustrates that important differences in the representation of the horizontal model circulation pattern are related to differences in the MDT used. The objective of assimilation is to improve the representation of the 3D ocean state. However, the imperfect representation of the mean dynamic topography appears to be an important limiting factor with regard to the degree of realism obtained in the simulated flow. Vertical temperature and salinity profiles are key observations to drive a general circulation ocean model toward a more realistic state. The second set of experiments shows that assimilating them in addition to sea surface measurements is a far from trivial exercise. A specific difficulty is due to inconsistencies between the dynamic topography diagnosed from in situ observations and that diagnosed from sea surface height. These two fields obtained from different data sources do not contain exactly the same information. In order to overcome this difficulty, a strategy is proposed and validated. 相似文献
13.
A regional ocean circulation model with four-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme is configured to study the ocean state of the Indian Ocean region (65°E–95°E; 5°N–20°N) covering the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB). The state estimation setup uses 10 km horizontal resolution and 5 m vertical resolution in the upper ocean. The in-situ temperature and salinity, satellite-derived observations of sea surface height, and blended (in-situ and satellite-derived) observations of sea surface temperature alongwith their associated uncertainties are used for data assimilation with the regionally configured ocean model. The ocean state estimation is carried out for 61 days (1 June to 31 July 2013). The assimilated fields are closer to observations compared to other global state estimates. The mixed layer depth (MLD) of the region shows deepening during the period of assimilation with AS showing higher MLD compared to the BoB. An empirical forecast equation is derived for the prediction of MLD using the air–sea forcing variables as predictors. The surface and sub-surface (50 m) heat and salt budget tendencies of the region are also investigated. It is found that at the sub-surface, only the advection and diffusion temperature and salt tendencies are important. 相似文献
14.
资料同化技术的发展及其在海洋科学中的应用 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
同顾了资料同化技术,特别是基于最优控制和统计估计这两大理论基础发展起来的几种资料同化方法的研究进展,以及这些方法在海洋科学研究中的应用现状.可以看到,由于海洋观测资料(如地转海洋学实时观测阵(Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography,Argo)、热带大气海洋阵列(Trop... 相似文献
15.
In this study the assimilation of HF radar data into a high resolution, coastal Wavewatch III model is investigated. An optimal interpolation scheme is used to assimilate the data and the design of a background error covariance matrix which reflects the local conditions and difficulties associated with a coastal domain is discussed. Two assimilation schemes are trialled; a scheme which assimilates mean parameters from the HF radar data and a scheme which assimilates partitioned spectral HF radar data. This study demonstrates the feasibility of assimilating partitioned wave data into a coastal domain. The results show that the assimilation schemes provide satisfactory improvements to significant wave heights but more mixed results for mean periods. The best improvements are seen during a stormy period with turning winds. During this period the model is deficient at capturing the change in wave directions and the peak in the waveheights, while the high sea state ensures good quality HF radar data for assimilation. The study also suggests that there are both physical and practical advantages to assimilating partitioned wave data compared to assimilating mean parameters for the whole spectrum. 相似文献
16.
中国近海现场海洋观测系统设计评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
中国科学院正在发展一个在中国近海(包括黄海、东海和南海)现场海洋观测系统。观测系统包括3个沿岸观测站点、4个近海离岸浮标和由观测船只按固定航线做的船舶观测断面。观测站点、浮标和断面的位置已经预先确定,这个计划在2008-2011实施。利用基于卡尔曼理论的样本集合方法对这样一个能够监测大尺度的季节和年季变率的观测系统设计进行了评估。根据卡尔曼滤波理论,用集合样本的方法能够给出经过同化这个观测系统位置的观测资料后能够减少多少分析误差和分析场的不确定性。用2个来自不同模式、不同分辨率的模式的结果作为集合样本来计算静态的背景误差协方差,这2套样本分别是来自分辨率是0.5°×0.5°的模式同化结果和高分辨0.125°×0.125°的模式结果。由这2个不同资料得到的结果是一致的。发现来自3个近岸和4个离岸浮标得到的观测能够有效地减少SST在渤海、黄海、东海和南海中部的分析误差。然而在越南东部和台湾东部海域,分析误差减少的百分比相对要小。最后,给出了中国近海最优的观测位置序列设计。 相似文献
17.
基于ROMS模式的南海SST与SSH四维变分同化研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
卫星遥感观测获得了大量高分辨率的海面实时信息，包括海面温度（SST）和海面高度（SSH）等，同化进入数值模式可有效提升模拟精度。本文基于ROMS模式与四维变分同化方法（4DVAR），使用AVHRR SST和AVISO SSH数据，开展了南海区域同化实验。为检验同化的效果，分别利用HYCOM再分析资料和Argo温盐实测数据分析了同化结果的海面高度、流场及温盐剖面的精度。对比结果表明，SST和SSH的同化能够改善ROMS的模拟结果:同化后海面高度场能够更为准确地捕捉海洋的中尺度特征，与HYCOM海面高度再分析资料相比，平均绝对偏差和均方根误差分别为0.054 m和0.066 m；与HYCOM 10 m层流场相比，东向与北向流速平均绝对偏差分别为0.12 m/s和0.11 m/s，相比未同化均提升约0.01 m/s；温盐同化结果与Argo温盐实测具有较高的一致性，温度和盐度平均绝对偏差为0.45℃、0.077，均方根误差为0.91℃、0.11，单个的温盐廓线对比说明，同化结果与HYCOM再分析资料精度相当。 相似文献
18.
气候模式中海洋数据同化对热带降水偏差的影响 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
本文采用海洋卫星观测海表温度(SST)和海面高度异常(SLA)数据,对国家海洋局第一海洋研究所地球系统模式FIO-ESM(First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 1.0)中海洋模式分量进行了集合调整卡尔曼滤波(EAKF)同化,对比分析了大气环流、湿度和云量对海洋数据同化的响应,探讨了海洋同化对热带降水模拟偏差的影响。结果表明:海洋数据同化能有效改善海表温度和上层海洋热含量的模拟,30°S~30°N纬度带内年平均SST的绝均差降低60%。同化后大气模式模拟的赤道两侧信风得到明显改善,上升气流在赤道以北热带地区增强而在赤道以南热带地区减弱,热带降水模拟的动力结构更为合理,水汽和云量分布也更切合实际。热带年平均降水的空间分布和强度在同化后均得到改善,赤道以南的纬向年平均降水峰值显著降低,降水偏差明显减小,同化后30°S~30°N纬度带内年平均降水绝均差降低35%。 相似文献
19.
The option for surface forcing correction, recently developed in the 4D-variational (4DVAR) data assimilation systems of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS), is presented. Assimilation of remotely-sensed (satellite sea surface height anomaly and sea surface temperature) and in situ (from mechanical and expendable bathythermographs, Argo floats and CTD profiles) oceanic observations has been applied in a realistic, high resolution configuration of the California Current System (CCS) to sequentially correct model initial conditions and surface forcing, using the Incremental Strong constraint version of ROMS-4DVAR (ROMS-IS4DVAR). Results from both twin and real data experiments are presented where it is demonstrated that ROMS-IS4DVAR always reduces the difference between the model and the observations that are assimilated. However, without corrections to the surface forcing, the assimilation of surface data can degrade the temperature structure at depth. When using surface forcing adjustment in ROMS-IS4DVAR the system does not degrade the temperature structure at depth, because differences between the model and surface observations can be reduced through corrections to surface forcing rather than to temperature at depth. However, corrections to surface forcing can generate abnormal spatial and temporal variability in the structure of the wind stress or surface heat flux fields if not properly constrained. This behavior can be partially controlled via the choice of decorrelation length scales that are assumed for the forcing errors. Abnormal forcing corrections may also arise due to the effects of model error which are not accounted for in IS4DVAR. In particular, data assimilation tends to weaken the alongshore wind stress in an attempt to reduce the rate of coastal upwelling, which seems to be too strong due to other sources of error. However, corrections to wind stress and surface heat flux improve systematically the ocean state analyses. Trends in the correction of surface heat fluxes indicate that, given the ocean model used and its potential limitations, the heat flux data from the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) used to impose surface conditions in the model are generally too low except in spring-summer, in the upwelling region, where they are too high. Comparisons with independent data provide confidence in the resulting forecast ocean circulation on timescales ～14 days, with less than 1.5 °C, 0.3 psu, and 9 cm RMS error in temperature, salinity and sea surface height anomaly, respectively, compared to observations. 相似文献
20.
现代海洋/大气资料同化方法的统一性及其应用进展 总被引：9，自引：3，他引：9
海洋／大气资料同化的理论基础是用数值模式作为动力学强迫对观测信息进行提炼，或者说，从包含观测误差(噪声)的空间分布不均匀的实测资料中依据动力系统自身的演化规律(动力学方程或模式)来确定海洋／大气系统状态的最优估计。本文对主要的现代海洋／大气资料同化方法，包括最优插值(()ptimal Interpolation，简称()Ⅰ)、变分方法(3—Dimensional Variational和4—Dimensional Variational，分别简称3DVAR和4DVAR)和滤波方法(Filtering)的原理、算法设计和实际应用进行系统地回顾，并对这些资料同化方法的优缺点进行分析和讨论。在滤波框架下，所有的现代资料同化方法都被统一了：()Ⅰ和3DVAR是不随时间变化的滤波器，4DVAR和卡曼滤波是线性滤波器，即非线性滤波的退化情形；而集合滤波能构建非线性的滤波器，因为集合在某种程度上体现了系统的非高斯信息。一个非线性滤波器的主要优点是能计算和应用随时间变化的各阶误差统计距，如误差协方差矩阵。将非线性滤波器计算的随时间变化的误差协方差矩阵引入到（）Ⅰ或4DVAR中，也许能实质性地改进这些传统方法。在实际应用中，方法的优劣可能取决于所选用的数值模式和可获得的计算资源，因此需针对不同的问题选取不同的资料同化方法。由于各种资料同化方法具有统一性，因此可建立测试系统来评价这些方法，从而对各种方法获得更深入的理解，改进现有的资料同化技术，并提高人们对海洋／大气环境的预测能力。 相似文献