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1.
三峡工程运行对洞庭湖与荆江三口关系的影响分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
三峡水库于2003年6月1日正式开始蓄水,其防洪、发电、航运等综合效益日益明显。根据水文泥沙观测资料,采用BP(Back Propagation)神经网络、变差系数法、双累积曲线法等方法分析三峡工程的运行对洞庭湖与荆江三口关系的影响,结果表明:(1)从年际和年代际尺度上看,长江上游降水量减少和三峡工程建设等人类活动是影响洞庭湖水沙变异的主要因素;(2)长江中下游荆江三口分流分沙锐减,并呈现三口口门趋于淤积,藕池河和虎渡河逐渐走向衰亡;(3)从洞庭湖泥沙沉积量过程线来看,2003—2010年洞庭湖的累计泥沙淤积量仅为2301×104t,比多年平均值减少95.6%;(4)运用BP神经网络对洞庭湖出湖水量和沙量进行模拟,结果显示模拟精度满足洞庭湖出湖水沙预测的需要。 相似文献
2.
洞庭湖洪水规模与1995年自然降水分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
通过对１９９５年前汛期（４～７月）,四水流域,湖区,长江中上游等集水区间自然降水水平与洞庭洪水关系的研究,探讨洞庭湖早已出现的“高水位,低流量”异常现象的成因,在此基础上,揭示本世纪来,洞庭湖至今并达到１９５４年降雨规模,从而着重指出洞庭湖距世纪洪水的潜在危险。 相似文献
3.
冬季下垫面热状况与洞庭湖平原汛期降水量的年际变化 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
一、引言洞庭湖位于湖南北部,长江中游荆江南岸,湖泊面积为2540平方公里,为我国仅次于鄱阳湖的第二淡水湖泊,是长江流域最主要的集水蓄洪湖盆,对长江起着巨大的调蓄洪水作用。洞庭湖平原现有耕地800万亩,是湖南的粮仓,我国主要商品粮基地。因此,具有重要的战略地位和经济价值。但是,洪涝灾害是洞庭湖平原面临着的主要威胁。所以,研究洞庭 相似文献
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洞庭湖湖泊效应及其效应衰减初探 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
一、显著的湖泊热力效应洞庭湖,包括水域、浜湖平原、丘岗共计3.16万平方公里。而广义上的湖区,广及江汉平原、湖中北缘以及东西两侧山丘区。整个地形呈向北开口的簸箕状,故湖区既易受冷空气影响,又显示地形、湖水热力作用。本文重点探讨湖泊的热力效应。 (一)从相近纬度的两地,看洞庭湖的热力效应。 相似文献
7.
洞庭湖轮虫生态分布的研究 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
1985～1986年,对洞庭湖水体进行了8次轮虫样品的采集和分析。两年观察到轮虫108种,其中终年出现的种类有10种。轮虫总数O—512.8ind./L,全湖平均75.1ind./L。本文从湖区自然生态环境对轮虫种类、数量的影响进行研究,探讨了大型开放湖泊轮虫分布与若干生态因子的关系。认为泥沙含量、流速、营养盐多寡以及入湖水体轮虫种群状况是影响洞庭湖轮虫分布的主要因素。 相似文献
8.
针对洞庭湖地区复杂水系和复杂水情下的实际水流运动特征,建立了完全基于水力学方法的洞庭湖地区水系的一、二维耦合的全局水动力学模型,实现了不同水体数值模拟的自动有机衔接。模型包括湖泊、河网水系两部分。对长江干流荆江段、湘资沅澧四水、三口分流河道,运用能够反映河道主槽和边滩不同行洪特征的扩展一维水量模型进行模拟;对于洞庭湖湖区部分,采用二维非结构的有限体积法建立水动力模型;应用重叠投影法实现模型的耦合。模型具有动边界的自动处理,河道分区计算,分洪、溃堤过程实时模拟等功能。剖分的网格较为细致地刻画了湖区的地形,使模型能够模拟"高水湖相、低水河相"的湖流特征。运用1996年7月的实际洪水过程,进行了模型的验证,较为准确地模拟了实际水流特征。 相似文献
9.
构造沉降对近代洞庭湖区演变的贡献——答李春初先生对《洞庭湖地质环境系统分析》的质疑 总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15
为回应对《洞庭湖地质环境系统分析》系列研究成果提出的质疑,在理论分析、宏观时空分析以及大量举证的基础上,论证了构造沉降对近代洞庭湖演变起着主导作用。作者利用地形图比对求算的洞庭湖堤围区视构造沉降速率,不仅与重复水准测量成果一致,还得到有关中国大陆第四纪以来构造活动加剧的研究成果的定性支持。作者在研究中应用的“假设－演绎法”是一种富有创造性的科学方法。因此,《洞庭湖地质环境系统分析》的基本结论是成立的。 相似文献
10.
构造沉降是控制近代洞庭湖演变的关键因素吗?——评《洞庭湖地质环境系统分析》 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文对以研究近代洞庭湖演变趋势为主要内容的《洞庭湖地质环境系统分析》的系列研究成果进行评论 ,认为采用“假设 -演绎法”研究洞庭湖演变得出的结论 ,依然建立在假设的基础上 ,并不可靠。文中还对该系列成果提出的“构造沉降是控制洞庭湖演变的关键因素”的论点和一些所谓的“构造沉降”表现及其计算数据提出质疑 ,认为近代洞庭湖的演变不是由内动力“构造沉降”控制 ,而是主要受入湖水沙条件变化、人工围垦湖滩和湖面———基面上升等外动力的作用和影响。 相似文献
11.
舟山朱家尖海域污损生物的分布特征及其与环境因子的关系 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
根据2007年3月至2008年2月在舟山朱家尖蜈蚣客运码头进行的污损生物挂板试验,对该海域污损生物的种类组成、附着季节、生物量分布及生态特点进行了初步研究。结果表明:该海域共鉴定出污损生物85种,其中,藻类13种,腔肠动物13种,苔藓虫4种,多毛类12种,软体动物8种,甲壳类22种和其它13种。优势种为中胚花筒螅Tubularia mesembryanthemum、泥藤壶Balanus uliginosus、白脊藤壶Balanus albicostatus、僧帽牡蛎Saccostrea cucullata、近江牡蛎Crassostrea rivularis、马尔他钩虾Melita sp.、圆鳃麦杆虫Caprella acutifrons、长鳃麦杆虫C.equilibra和盘管虫Hydroides sp.。朱家尖海域全年都有污损生物繁殖附着,其中6—10月为附着盛期,表层和中层月板生物量的高峰值均出现在7月,最低值分别出现在2月和1月,表层月板全年附着总生物量为2 006.1g/m2,月平均生物量为167.18g/m2;中层月板全年附着总生物量为2 388.15g/m2,月平均生物量为199.01g/m2;季度板污损生物生物量按高低依次为:夏季>秋季>春季>冬季;上半年板污损生物的生物量>下半年板。在垂直分布上,除季度板外,其它试板的生物量和附着密度均为中层>表层。根据污损生物的生态习性、分布特征及对盐度的适应,可将舟山朱家尖海域主要污损生物定义为河口低盐种。水温是影响调查海域污损生物分布的主要因素,水体盐度则对朱家尖海域污损生物的种类及指标种分布具有决定性作用。 相似文献
12.
Unbonded flexible pipe is one of the important pieces of equipment in floating production systems for transport of oil and gas between floaters and subsea wells located in deep water. To assure safety over a long-term service period, analysis of fatigue behavior under alternative bending is a key requirement. An analytical model for prediction of bending behavior is essential for understanding the mechanism of the local stress distribution in the helical wires of the tension armor layers under alternative curvatures and rapid estimation of the service life of flexible pipes for designers in engineering practice. In this paper, seven analytical models available in the literature are selected and summarized. Although the experimental results reported in the literature are limited, a three-dimensional finite element model is developed for investigation of the seven models, and the validity and limitations of these models for different structural parameters of helical wire are discussed, i.e., the width-thickness ratio of the wire section and helical angle. The analytical model based on spring theory resulted in a satisfactory estimation of bending stress for most cases and is recommended as a tool for the basic design of the helical armor wire structures in flexible pipes. 相似文献
13.
去除有机质前后海底沉积物对稀土元素吸附能力的变化研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为更好地了解有机质对沉积物吸附稀土元素能力的影响,对珠江口和南海沉积物在去除有机质之前和之后进行了稀土元素吸附实验研究。结果表明,同一种沉积物在去除有机质前后对稀土元素的吸附呈现基本相同的规律,只是吸附量有所不同。沉积物在去除有机质之后对稀土离子的吸附能力比去除有机质之前大大降低;沉积物对各种稀土元素吸附量降低的百分比为:珠江口沉积物对Yb的吸附量减少了47.24%,对La的吸附量减少了75.50%,对其它元素的吸附量减少介于47.24%—75.50%之间;南海沉积物对Sm的吸附量减少了35.93%,对Ho的吸附量减少了45.41%,对其它元素的吸附量减少介于35.93%—45.41%之间。 相似文献
14.
《African Journal of Marine Science》2013,35(1):241-264
Bayesian methods are useful in fisheries stock assessment because they provide a conceptually elegant and statistically rigorous approach to making decisions under uncertainty. The application of Bayesian stock assessment methods in the management of Namibian orange roughy Hoplosthethus atlanticus within the 200 mile EEZ of Namibia is reviewed. Time-series of relative abundance are short and their reliability in indicating abundance trends is uncertain. The development of informative prior probability density functions (pdfs) for the constants of proportionality (q) for hydro-acoustic, commercial trawl swept area, and research trawl swept area indices produced statistically consistent prior estimates of absolute abundance for each of the three grounds where more than one index of abundance was available. The posterior pdfs for stock assessment model parameters were used to account for uncertainty in evaluations of the potential consequences of alternative harvesting policies under a stock reduction model in which catch removals were assumed to account for any declines. It appears that all orange roughy stocks off Namibia have been depleted below the limit reference point (50% of long-term unfished biomass). However, the stock reduction model could not easily account for the large declines in indices on the four fishing grounds over the period from 1995 until 1999 when the informative priors for q were applied. In the 2000 stock assessment, the Bayesian procedure was updated to account formally for uncertainty in model structures that could explain the decline in abundance. The possibility of very low stock abundance could still not be discounted when these uncertainties were accounted for. Although this most recent methodology applies more statistical rigour, its complexity has hindered its acceptance in Namibia. However, if it is worth quantifying risks and uncertainties in future stock assessments for the provision of precautionary management advice, it is proposed that the assessment protocols adopted be probabilistic to account for uncertainty in model parameters, that careful attention be given to subjective judgements about their inputs and the representation of uncertainty within them, and that, where appropriate, alternative hypotheses about stock abundance and mechanisms for catchability and stock decline be taken into account. 相似文献
15.
Cai Lin Yang Liu Ronggen Jiang Jinmin Chen Baohong Chen Weili Wang Kaiwen Zhou Hui Lin 《海洋学报(英文版)》2022,41(11):12-22
Resource exploitation in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) is of major research interest worldwide, but its influence on the environment is poorly understood, especially due to the lack of baseline values for metals in the surrounding sediment. This work aimed to establish the baseline values of 17 metals (Ba, Ca, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ag, As, B, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn) using normalization, the cumulative frequency curve method considering a total of 172 samples taken from 8 multitube cores and 1 box sediment core collected in the western CCZ during the COMRA-45 cruise campaign from August to September 2017. The baseline values of the evaluated metals were as follows: 1 932 mg/kg for Ba, 29 512 mg/kg for Ca, 18 150 mg/kg for K, 17 120 mg/kg for Mg, 6 747 mg/kg for Mn, 28 546 mg/kg for Na, 0.571 mg/kg for Ag, 5.00 mg/kg for As, 94.4 mg/kg for B, 0.626 mg/kg for Cd, 104 mg/kg for Co, 76.1 mg/kg for Cr, 370 mg/kg for Cu, 0.028 mg/kg for Hg, 190 mg/kg for Ni, 27.5 mg/kg for Pb and 156 mg/kg for Zn. Our findings would fill the baseline value gap in the study area and further improve accuracy of environmental impact assessments on the impact of resource exploitation. 相似文献
16.
Long term wave climate of both extreme wave and operational wave height is essential for planning and designing coastal structures.
Since the field wave data for the waters around Korean peninsula is not enough to provide reliable wave statistics, the wave
climate information has been generated by means of long-term wave hindcasting using available meteorological data. Basic data
base of hindcasted wave parameters such as significant wave height, peak period and direction has been established continuously
for the period of 25 years starting from 1979 and for major 106 typhoons for the past 53 years since 1951 for each grid point
of the North East Asia Regional Seas with grid size of 18 km. Wind field reanalyzed by European Center for Midrange Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF) was used for the simulation of waves for the extratropical storms, while wind field calculated by typhoon
wind model with typhoon parameters carefully analyzed using most of the available data was used for the simulation of typhoon
waves. Design wave heights for the return period of 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 years for 16 directions at each grid point have
been estimated by means of extreme wave analysis using the wave simulation data. As in conventional methodsi of design criteria
estimation, it is assumed that the climate is stationary and the statistics and extreme analysis using the long-term hindcasting
data are used in the statistical prediction for the future. The method of extreme statistical analysis in handling the extreme
events like typhoon Maemi in 2003 was evaluated for more stable results of design wave height estimation for the return periods
of 30–50 years for the cost effective construction of coastal structures. 相似文献
17.
Predicting the capability-polar-plots for dynamic positioning systems for offshore platforms using artificial neural networks 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
As the capability of polar plots becomes better understood, improved dynamic positioning (DP) systems are possible as the control algorithms greatly depend on the accuracy of the aerodynamic and hydrodynamic models. The measurements and estimation of the environmental disturbances have an important role in the optimal design and selection of a DP system for offshore platforms. The main objective of this work is to present a new method of predicting the Capability-Polar-Plots for offshore platforms using the combination of the artificial neural networks (NNs) and the capability polar plots program (CPPP). The estimated results from a case study for a scientific drilling vessel are presented. A trained artificial NN is designed in this work and is able to predict the maximum wind speed at which the DP thrusters are able to maintain the offshore platform in a station-keeping mode in the field site. This prediction for the maximum wind speed will be a helpful tool for DP operators in managing station-keeping for offshore platforms in an emergency situation where the automation of the DP systems is disabled. It is obvious from the obtained results that the developed technique has potential for the estimation of the capability-polar-plots for offshore platforms. This tool would be suitable for DP operators to predict the maximum wind speed and direction in a very short period of time. 相似文献
18.
南沙群岛海域理化参数垂向分布特征及跃层生态系的提法 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
自1985～1999年中国科学院南沙综合科学考察队在南沙群岛进行了12个航次的综合科学考察.根据调查的结果,通过分析南沙群岛海域理化参数垂向分布特征,得出次表层海水理化参数具有极值现象、跃变现象和波动现象的特点,讨论了这些独特特征反映的独特生境,提出了南沙群岛海域垂直方向上存在跃层生态系的观点. 相似文献
19.
Monitoring offshore platforms, long span bridges, high rise buildings, TV towers and other similar structures is essential for ensuring their safety in service. Continuous monitoring assumes even greater significance in the case of offshore platforms, which are highly susceptible to damage due to the corrosive environment and the continuous action of waves. Also, since a major part of the structure is under water and covered by marine growth, even a trained diver cannot easily detect damage in the structure. In the present work, vibration criterion is adopted for structural monitoring of jacket platforms. Artificial excitation of these structures is not always practicable and ambient excitation due to wind and waves may not be sufficient for collecting the required vibration data. Alternate methods can be adopted for the same purpose, for example, the application of an impact or a sudden relaxation of an applied force for exciting the structure. For jacket platforms, impact can be applied by gently pushing the structure at the fender while relaxation can be accomplished by pulling the structure and then suddenly releasing it using a tug or a supply vessel in both cases. The present study is an experimental investigation on a laboratory model of a jacket platform, for exploring the feasibility of adapting vibration responses due to impulse and relaxation, for structural monitoring. Effects of damage in six members of the platform as well as changes in deck masses were studied. A finite element model of the structure was used to analyze all the cases for comparison of the results as well as system identification. A data acquisition and analysis procedure for obtaining the response signatures of the platform due to the impulse and relaxation procedure was also developed for possible adoption in on-line monitoring of offshore platforms. From the study, it has been concluded that both impulse and relaxation responses are useful tools for monitoring offshore jacket platforms. The present work forms the basis for the development of an automated, on-line monitoring system for offshore platforms, using neural networks. 相似文献
20.
《African Journal of Marine Science》2013,35(1):489-501
The availability of resources and their suitability for subsistence and small-scale commercial fishers in South Africa were assessed and appropriate options for the management of resources recommended. Assessment of current resource utilization and recommendations for future subsistence and/or small-scale commercial use were based on information gathered during a nationwide survey of 144 subsistence fishing communities in South Africa and a review of relevant published and unpublished literature. Current patterns of resource use in three regions of the coast (West, South and East coasts) revealed that most true subsistence fisheries occur in the eastern half of the country. These fisheries are primarily focused on invertebrate species found on intertidal rocky shores and sandy beaches, or in estuaries. Fish are harvested by rod or handline, netting or traditional fishing methods (fishtraps, spearing, baited baskets). No "new" or previously underutilized resources were identified as suitable for subsistence fishing in any of the three regions. The potential for several new small-scale commercial fisheries was identified, but the need to retain certain resources for subsistence fisheries (rather than converting them to small-scale commercial fisheries) was evident in certain areas. Resources with high commercial value were not considered suitable for subsistence fishing, but rather for the introduction of small-scale commercial fisheries. The overall management strategy for the subsistence sector, which is currently in the process of being developed, must ensure sufficient flexibility to be able to take into account regional and site-specific requirements. It will also need to develop co-management structures, protect traditional fishing practices, avoid user conflict and provide for no-take areas, all within the framework of sustainable resource utilization. 相似文献