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在全球变暖背景下,针对北极海冰融化和东北航道开通的航行风险问题,采用风险评估理论,利用海冰密度、风速、能见度、气温和高程等指标数据,构建风险指标体系,开展了对北极东北航道主要航段自然环境危险性风险(以下简称综合风险)的评估与区划等工作,讨论各指标因子对综合风险的贡献度,得到如下结果:1)经验上来看,北极东北航道适宜通航的月份为7~10月,从风险量化角度分析得出东北航道7~10月自然环境风险较其它月份低,对经验结论进行了验证。2)研究区综合风险分布为"东高西低",即巴伦支海的综合风险较低,咯拉海、拉普捷夫海和东西伯利亚海风险较高。3)可通航月内(7~10月),9月份综合风险最低,其次是8、7月份,10月份综合风险最高。4)除去个别年份(2008和2009年),研究区在2004~2015年综合风险呈现下降趋势,2015年达到最低值。5)敏感性分析得:海冰对综合风险的贡献度最大;风速、水深次之;气温对综合风险贡献最小。 相似文献
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本文利用ERA5再分析数据和我国北极科学考察期间获取的走航气象观测数据,分析了夏季影响船舶通航北极航道的关键近地面气象要素的时空变化特征。结果表明,7–8月的天气条件最适宜船舶在北极航道航行,9月低温、大风和大浪天气显著增多,对船舶航行影响较大,10月的天气更加恶劣,对船舶航行的挑战更大。低温天气主要出现在各航道的中段,大风和大浪天气集中在航道两端的海域。除北极中心区和10月的挪威海和巴伦支海以外,其余时间的海域出现大风和大浪天气的概率以增加趋势为主,但具有较大的年际变化。根据现有北极航道气象观测数据分析发现,东北航道能见度最差,西北航道能见度最好,中央航道居中。 相似文献
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近年北极东北和西北航道开通状况分析 总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4
利用微波卫星遥感数据对北极东北航道和西北航道近年来的冰情变化,以及影响航道开通的关键区域和每年的开通状况进行了分析和总结,并对航道未来的可能冰情状况进行了展望,期望对航道利用者有所帮助。东北航道全线开通期主要集中在8月下旬至10月上旬,开通总天数多在40~50d;西北航道南线开通期主要集中在8月上中旬至10月上旬,开通总天数多在50~60d;西北航道北线开通时间主要集中在9月。东北航道冰情最为复杂的是连接拉普捷夫海和喀拉海的北地群岛区域海冰,也是影响航道开通的关键区。影响西北航道南线开通的关键主要是威廉王岛附近维多利亚海峡、威尔士王子岛东侧的皮尔海峡和北侧巴罗海峡区域的海冰状况;影响北线开通的关键区域是班克斯岛西北部的麦克卢尔海峡和梅尔维尔子爵海峡;东北航道可通航性优于西北航道。虽然气候变化大背景下北极海冰总量减少,但由于海冰流动性增强,局部海冰变化愈发复杂,海冰分布年际差异较大,需要加强北极海冰监测和预报能力,为未来航道利用提供保障。 相似文献
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基于北极西北航道7条主要航线建立自然环境危险性评价指标体系,引入三角模糊数层次分析法确定指标权重,采用TOPSIS方法对7条航线做危险性贴近度排序和航线优选,利用加拿大2008年"MV Camilla Desgagnés"号商船线路及2014年"努那维克"号散货船线路对航线优选结果进行验证。研究表明,在海洋环境危险性和地理环境危险性子指标中,权重最大的指标分别为海冰密集度危险指数(C1)和航道宽度危险指数(C7)。从海洋环境危险性来看,始于兰开斯特海峡,经过摄政王湾、拜洛特海峡、维多利亚海峡、毛德皇后湾等地抵达阿蒙森湾的航线4危险性最小,欧洲中期天气预报中心提供的海冰数据显示2000—2016年该航线的海冰密集度总体呈下降趋势,17a中9月份的月平均海冰密集度最小;从地理环境危险性来看,航线4上所有海湾和海峡的平均危险性最小,能够满足通航要求。该航线与加拿大2008年"MV Camilla Desgagnés"号商船采用的线路较吻合。结果表明优选航线为航线4。 相似文献
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相比其他航道,北极航道的行程更短,北极航道的通航具有很高的经济性和商业价值。充分调研北极航道的现状,对当前通航北极的商船类型、路线及沿途的冰区环境进行详细分析,并从北极油气资源开采规划上预测未来商船类型和航线的发展趋势。鉴于我国商船在北极航道面临的风险,提出有效地应对措施,并剖析了我国发展极地救助船的必要性。 相似文献
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西北航道是指从北大西洋经加拿大北极群岛进入北冰洋,再进入太平洋的航道,是连接大西洋和太平洋的捷径。为了探讨西北航道通航期极端天气条件下强风及海冰对波浪场的影响机制,建立并验证了考虑海冰影响下的西北航道风浪演化模型,并以2012年8月北极气旋登陆期间为例探讨西北航道通航期波浪特性及波能流密度的时空演化及其对风和海冰的响应。研究结果表明,北极夏季海冰大多分布于西北航道以北海域,而风向大部分集中在SSW(南偏西22.5°)至SW(南偏西45°),西北航道海冰的存在并不会引起有效风区的明显减少,也不会引起无冰海域波能流的明显减小(不超过5%)。但是,当风向变为北向风时,无冰海域波能流减小幅度最多高达62%。最后,综合海冰和波浪要素的时空分布,提出了极端天气条件下西北航道通航期的最佳适航路线,为西北航道的夏季安全通航提供了科学依据。 相似文献
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依托北极东北航道建设“冰上丝绸之路”是中国和俄罗斯未来合作的重中之重，同时符合亚欧大陆经济发展和多方合作的客观要求。“冰上丝绸之路”建设所代表的北极地区开发利用模式立足于现阶段的自然环境条件和世界经济形势，必然对世界政治经济格局和区域发展产生影响。文章从“冰上丝绸之路”的概念定位、建设主体和建设环境等方面梳理相关研究成果，具体涉及东北亚国家和北欧国家的战略选择、国际双边合作和多边合作的成功案例、北极航道的通航条件以及中国东北地区的对接路径等，为后续研究和实际建设提供理论铺垫。 相似文献
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《Ocean & Coastal Management》1999,42(8):671-697
The coastal and marine environments and resources of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are globally significant and generally in a healthy state. Current regional issues include localized destruction of coral reefs, seagrass and mangroves; declines in some fisheries; exploitation of some endangered species; pollution from the development and transport of petroleum; and disposal of industrial and municipal wastes. The underlying causes of these issues are the natural vulnerability of the Red Sea due to its semi-enclosed nature; economic reliance on the petroleum industry; significant navigation risks; a rapidly increasing coastal population and associated developments; lack of fisheries information, surveillance and management; poor coastal zone planning; and limited technical expertise. Strategic actions addressing these issues will need to be implemented regionally and focus on coastal zone management that integrates environmental planning, environmental assessment and review; training and institutional development; public awareness and participation; information gathering especially fisheries statistics; reducing navigation risks; and the development of resource management and conservation strategies. 相似文献
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海洋气象环境复杂多变,船舶航行风险随时间演变具有较高的不确定性。本文从时空分析的角度出发,动态评估船舶的航行风险：选择风场、海流、海浪、海温等4种动态因素和海雾发生频率、海底地形等2种静态因素作为评估因子,使用层次分析法（analytic hierarchy process,AHP）计算各评估因子的权重,在此基础上,利用有序加权方法（ordered weighted averaging,OWA）优化上述权重,最后结合地理信息系统（geographic information system,GIS）技术生成航行风险评估的动态风险图。研究表明,AHP-OWA算子能够突出数值变化较大的评估因子对于风险的影响,具有较好的稳定性,动态风险评估结果能够直观展示航行风险演化过程。 相似文献
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The outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk to the North Pacific is important in characterising the surface-to-intermediate-depth
water masses in the Pacific Ocean. The two basins are separated by the Kuril Islands with numerous straits, among which the
Bussol and the Kruzenshterna Straits are deeper than 1000 m. The physics governing the transport between the two basins is
complicated, but when the semidiurnal and diurnal tides are subtracted, the observed density and velocity structures across
the Bussol Strait suggest a significant contribution from geostrophic balance. Using a two-layer model with the interface
at 27.5σ
θ
, part of the upper layer transport that is not driven by tides is estimated using two previously unexplored data sets: outputs
from the Ocean General Circulation Model for Earth Simulator (OFES), and historical hydrographic data. The Pacific water flows
into the Sea of Okhotsk through the northeastern straits. The greatest inflow is through the Kruzenshtern Strait, but the
OFES results show that the contributions from other shallower straits are almost half of the Kruzenshtern inflow. Similarly,
the outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk is through the southwestern straits of the Kuril Islands with the largest Bussol Strait
contributing 60% of the total outflow. The OFES and hydrographic estimates agree that the exchange is strongest in February
to March, with an inflow of about −6 to −12 Sv (negative indicates the flow from the North Pacific, 1 Sv = 106 m3s−1), and an outflow from the Sea of Okhotsk of about +8 to +9 Sv (positive indicates the flow from the Sea of Okhotsk), which
is weakest in summer (−3 to +1 Sv through the northeastern straits and +0 to +3 Sv through the southwestern straits). The
estimated seasonal variation is consistent with a simple analytic model driven by the difference in sea surface height between
the two basins. 相似文献
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Application of LICOM to the numerical study of the water exchangebetween the South China Sea and its adjacent oceans 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8
1 IntroductionThe South China Sea (SCS) is the largestmarginal sea in the western Pacific (see Fig. 1). It con-nects with the SCS through the Taiwan Strait, with thePacific through the Luzon Strait, with the Sulu Seathrough the Mindoro and Balabac Straits and with theJava Sea and Andaman Sea through the Sunda Shelf(For convenience, here we refer to the section at 1.5°N,Fig. 2). It is shown that the seasonal SCS circulation ismostly affected by the summer/winter monsoon, andthe no… 相似文献
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In order to re-evaluate the water volume exchange through Naruto Strait, we have performed a numerical experiment (nonlinear barotropic model including the actual depth of water and the details of shoreline) where trajectories of a number of labeled particles are calculated during a full cycle of the M2 tidal current. The ratio of water volume exchanged through Naruto Strait to that through Akashi Strait is found to be twice as large as the previously estimated value. The calculated water exchange rate is 104 % for Naruto Strait, 52 % for Akashi Strait and 28 % for Kitan Strait. In the case where the tide-induced residual current is excluded from the calculated velocity field (i.e. considering only the M2 current), the calculated exchange rate maintains the level of 68 % for Naruto Strait, 18 % for Akashi Strait and 11 % for Kitan Strait, respectively. The mechanism of tidal exchange through these three straits is discussed, and it is shown that a suitable exchange rate is obtained by starting the calculation of trajectories of labeled particles at the time of either a maximum ebb- or flood-current. 相似文献
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根据长江口南沙头通道、横沙通道和南北槽分汊口的断面水深变化及长江口南北港和南北槽的分流比变化实测资料,分析了长江口北槽深水航道淤积的原因。结果表明,北槽深水航道上段淤积受多种因素影响,其中,南沙头通道和横沙通道的发展对深水航道影响最大。南沙头通道的发展在加大落潮流量的同时,对南港南岸会产生一定的冲刷,后经沙洲的阻挡,把泥沙带向南港北岸,在北槽进口段处落淤,直接影响了进入深水航道的落潮量;横沙通道由于直接贯通了北港北槽的水沙交换,因而削弱了南港和北槽之间的水沙交换,促使北槽深水航道上段产生淤积,这也是南槽河道上段刷深的一个主要原因,而南槽河道的发展必然减少了进入北槽的落潮量,进一步加剧了北槽深水航道上段的淤积。同时,科氏力与北槽南导堤分流口鱼咀工程对深水航道也造成了一定的不可忽视的影响。研究成果对治理北槽深水航道淤积问题保障深水航道正常运行具有十分重要的科学实践意义。 相似文献
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长江口深水航道工程于1998年开工建设,2002年和2005年一期和二期工程先后竣工,分别达到8.5和10.0 m通航水深。自2006年三期工程实施以来,北槽航道中段连续4a发生严重淤积,年疏浚维护量平均达6×107m3,影响三期工程目标的如期实现。通过自主开发的数字高程模型定量分析平台,建立时间序列的空间分布属性数据库,对长江口深水航道工程治理过程前后的河床冲淤变化规律和工程效果进行量化分析,分析结果揭示了长江口南港北槽深水航道近期淤积的泥沙来源、淤积过程、主要淤积原因和淤积部位,从而为工程治理对策提供科学依据。 相似文献
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E. Krasakopoulou E. Souvermezoglou A. Pavlidou H. Kontoyiannis 《Progress in Oceanography》1999,44(4):1460
The Straits of the Cretan Arc are the gateways through which water exchanges between the Cretan Sea and the SE Ionian and NW Levantine Seas. Dissolved oxygen and nutrient fluxes have been quantified for the major straits — Antikithira, Kassos and Karpathos — by combining chemical bottle-sample data and current measurements obtained during the PELAGOS Project during 1994–1995. Two water masses, Cretan Deep Water (CDW) and Transitional Mediterranean Water (TMW) dominate the circulation through the straits and lead to a vertical redistribution of nutrients in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.The transport of chemicals through the major straits of the Cretan Arc appears to be highly variable. In the Antikithira and Kassos Straits, a net export of oxygen and nutrients from the Cretan Sea towards the open waters of the Eastern Mediterranean was observed throughout the entire study period. In contrast, a net inflow of oxygen and nutrients of Levantine origin was taking place through the Karpathos Strait. It is concluded that the export of nutrients through the Antikithira and Kassos Straits are almost completely balanced by the net import through the Karpathos Strait. 相似文献