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《海洋气象学报》2017,(3)
利用2007—2015年济南市区及历城区自动气象观测站的逐小时降水量资料,以及常规高空、地面观测资料,统计了198次短时强降水过程的范围和强度特征,年际、月际变化特征,按照短时强降水发生时的天气形势和影响系统,分为切变线型、低槽冷锋型、西风槽型、冷涡型、台风外围型及无系统型6类,并分析了不同类型和不同范围短时强降水的关键环境参量。研究表明:短时强降水的强度与范围有较好的相关性,7月中旬—8月中旬出现强降水的次数最多;切变线型短时强降水发生范围与强度分布最广,7、8月的低槽冷锋型过程极易造成大范围高强度降水;地面露点(Td)、850 h Pa假相当位温(θse)、对流有效位能(CAPE)以及暖云层厚度能较好地区分不同范围的短时强降水过程。在天气分型的基础上,结合不同降水范围和不同降水类型环境参量箱线图与阈值表,可为济南市区短时强降水的预报提供有价值的参考。 相似文献
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利用佛山市152个自动气象观测站2012—2020年降水资料，根据强降水范围和性质，研究佛山市短时强降水的时空分布特征，并分析主要影响系统。结果表明：（1）短时强降水发生频次整体呈上升趋势，不同范围、不同性质的短时强降水时空差异性较大。局地性、区域性、突发型短时强降水主要发生在4—9月，全市性、增长型短时强降水主要发生在3—10月，持续型短时强降水5—6月发生频次最高。（2）从日变化来看，局地性、区域性呈单峰特征，全市性呈多峰特征，突发型、增长型呈双峰特征，持续型较平稳，06—09时略高，局地性、全市性和增长型短时强降水中分位值日变化较小，区域性、增长型和持续型短时强降水中分位值的日变化较大。（3）极大值出现的时间段也不相同，最大值的短时强降水是一次增长型的区域性过程。（4）空间分布上，局地性短时强降水在佛山西南部和北部发生的频次较高，全市性短时强降水发生频次的分布与之相反，而区域性短时强降水在西南部发生频次较低，增长型短时强降水发生频次高于突发型短时强降水，持续型短时强降水发生频次最低。（5）影响系统占比最大的分别是局地性、突发型短时强降水为副热带高压边缘，区域性、持续型、增长型短时强降水为热带系统，全市性短时强降水为西风槽，而西南低涡在各类中占比均最小。 相似文献
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选用山东 123 个国家级地面气象观测站 2007—2019 年地面逐小时降水资料,分析短时强降水分布特征,主要结论如下：1）其间共有 695 个短时强降水日、3 337 个短时强降水时次和 6 257 个短时强降水样本,基于排序法确定山东省极端短时强降水间值为 71.2 mm • h-1,鲁东南地区间值最高,鲁中地区间值最低。2）各站年均发生 3.9 次短时强降水天气,鲁东南地区短时强降水和极端短时强降水发生频次最多,半岛地区短时强降水发生最少,鲁西南地区极端短时强降水发生最少。3）短时强降水集中出现在 6 月中旬至 8 月下旬,又以 8 月上旬最多。4）日变化显著,呈现典型 “双峰” 特征,主要集中在午后至傍晚,其次是后半夜;6 月中旬至 8 月下旬傍晚和后半夜发生短时强降水的可能性大,需重点关注。 相似文献
4.
利用1981—2012年4—10月青岛市7个观测站逐时降水量资料和同期NCEP再分析资料,统计分析青岛市短时强降水的时空分布特征,建立青岛市短时强降水天气概念模型。结果表明:青岛市年短时强降水日数无明显变化趋势;4—10月均有短时强降水出现,7—8月是多发月份;短时强降水的日变化有2个多发时段,主峰在下午到傍晚时段,次峰在凌晨时段;即墨、平度、黄岛为青岛市短时强降水的多发区域,其中黄岛为连续性短时强降水出现最多的区域;青岛市产生短时强降水的天气系统可分为六种类型,西风槽型、横槽型、冷涡型、热带低值系统型、西北气流型、切变线型,其中西风槽型出现次数最多。 相似文献
5.
利用自动站资料、卫星云图以及NCEP再分析资料等,分析了1822号台风"山竹"登陆广东期间浙江东北部出现大暴雨的成因。结果表明:强降水发生在台风"山竹"登陆广东后减弱过程期间,伴有中尺度对流系统的发展,是由副热带高压、台风倒槽以及弱冷空气先后影响共同造成的;当对流不稳定时,与暖湿气流相关的湿位涡水平分量发展可触发垂直涡度的增长,使暴雨过程加强;强降水常发生在能量锋区附近,能量场的位置和梯度大小对此次强降水预报有12 h左右的提前量;来自台风东侧低层强的水汽输入和水汽辐合提供了本次强降水的水汽条件,水汽通量分布和水汽通量散度的增减相比雨量的增减有6 h左右的提前。 相似文献
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利用天气学诊断分析方法，结合气象卫星云图、多普勒雷达回波、总能量场和中尺度自动气象站记录资料等，分析0601号强台风“珍珠”路径变化的原因以及逐时降水动态变化特点，并探讨了台风影响过程中强降水的主要成因．指出副高、西风槽、高能区对台风运动的影响；台风中心降水和外围降水强弱有反相关的关系，降水较集中在台风路径的左侧；台风“珍珠”登陆前持续加强和对流强烈发展所形成的深厚系统是出现强降水的重要基础，在卫星云图上密实的螺旋结构和中尺度对流云团的生成是台风云带中出现强降水的显著特征，而特定区域地形的多方面影响是降水幅度增加的原因． 相似文献
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利用探空观测资料,对比分析华北冷涡背景下青岛三次混合型对流天气过程环境场条件,揭示出现短时强降水、雷暴大风和冰雹天气时的水汽、稳定度和垂直风切变差异特征。分析结果表明:500 hPa上冷涡中心位于42°N的华北冷涡、850 hPa低涡系统和偏南风急流以及地面气旋是这三次混合型对流天气的影响系统;在这三次混合型对流过程中有无雷暴大风天气的环境参数区别比较显著:有雷暴大风表现出了相对较干的中低层和中层存在浅薄湿层的水汽层结,无雷暴大风的则是上干下湿和中层大气干燥的层结特征;稳定度差异决定了对流强度的差异:同时出现短时强降水、雷暴大风和冰雹的对流天气的层结不稳定度最强,表现为较大的850和500 hPa温差(大于30℃)以及较强的0~3 km垂直风切变(大于12 m·s^-1);出现短时强降水和大风的大气层结稳定度最弱,相应的环境参数值也最小;在强不稳定层结和低层水汽充足的条件下,大于12 m·s^-1的0~3 km垂直风切变对青岛地区雷暴大风和冰雹的预报预警有较好的指示意义。 相似文献
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《海洋气象学报》2014,(2)
2011年8月15—16日,在河北南部和山东北部地区的中尺度对流复合体(MCC)产生了区域性的暴雨,局部地区出现了大暴雨和特大暴雨。利用多普勒雷达、卫星云图、区域自动站等资料,对这次MCC过程进行了分析,结果表明:MCC中的中-β尺度结构显著,系统有多个中-β尺度对流云团发展而成;不同触发机制的对流回波的合并发展是MCC发展成熟的重要标志;辐合线右侧对流单体的生成、发展,且并入到对流云团主体,是MCC长时间维持的重要因素;径向速度场上表现为中尺度辐合线、局部逆风区和中-γ尺度气旋性涡旋等特征,为强降水提供了动力条件,是出现短时强降水的重要特征;雷达径向速度场直观反映MCC的内部气流结构状况,为判断MCC的演变和强降水落区提供了重要信息。 相似文献
11.
The potential of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) observations for the depiction and tracking of intense high-latitude mesoscale maritime weather systems, called polar lows, is explored. Since a variety of mechanisms are important for their development and maintenance, this investigation is based on three polar low cases of different types. The AMSU-B channels at 183 GHz are able to locate convective polar lows (PL) even in their incipient stage, at a time when there is considerable uncertainty as to the nature of the cloud structures seen in the visible or infrared imagery. This detection is based on temperature depression due to scattering by hydrometeors, as confirmed by comparison with radar data. These same channels will, however, fail to unambiguously detect weakly convective and mainly baroclinic PL. The AMSU-A channels help documenting the large-scale environment in which PL develop. Channel 5 clearly shows the cold air outbreaks associated with these developments, whereas the difference between channels 7 and 5 can be used to detect and locate positive upper-level potential vorticity anomalies. Because of the high temporal availability of AMSU observations and despite some limitations pointed out in this study, these results are relevant for PL forecasting and monitoring. 相似文献
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Andrei Maksymowicz 《Geo-Marine Letters》2013,33(5):345-355
Seismic studies offshore southern Chile have revealed the presence of a 70–80 km wide accretionary prism seaward of the Golfo de Penas (GPAP), where the Chile Ridge collided with the South American Plate between 3 and 6 Ma ago. Using the paleo-positions of the Chile Ridge relative to South America, the maximum age of this accretionary prism, which continues to be formed in the aftermath of the ridge–continent collision, has been estimated. Building on these earlier findings, this study presents a mass balance analysis based on a 2D model of accretionary wedge and trench geometry. This model can explain the relative importance of sedimentary fluxes and deformation front migration for the wedge restoration. The proposed model can also serve to evaluate the effects of fluctuations in (1) terrigenous sediment flux related to climate change, and (2) subduction channel thickness on the accretionary prism growth. Notably, the data reveal that the key parameters controlling the rebuilding of the GPAP are the terrigenous sediment flux (75 km2/106 years), the relative advance of the deformation front (39.6 km/106 years), and the thickness of the subduction channel (0.1 km). Moreover, the range of possible solutions for the observed size of the accretionary prism is narrowed by fitting the present-day thickness of sediments at the deformation front. Finally, climate-induced variations in sedimentary fluxes on the margin can affect the rate of growth of the accretionary prism during short periods of time (<100,000 years). 相似文献
14.
Kosuke Mori Takeshi Matsuno Tomoharu Senjyu Naoki Hirose In-Seong Han 《Journal of Oceanography》2009,65(3):301-310
Temporal variations in temperature and salinity observed in 2004 were investigated on a short time scale in the Tsushima Strait.
The data were obtained by long-term in situ measurements at Mitsushima and Futaoi Island using an instrument equipped with
a piston-type wiper to avoid biofouling. In addition, the temperature and salinity values of the surface layer obtained by
a commercial ferryboat between Hakata and Busan were used to investigate their spatiotemporal variations. Temperature and
salinity variations with a time scale of several days had a negative correlation in the summer. This evidence suggests that
a warm and less saline water mass, which is considered to be mainly the Changjiang Diluted Water (CDW), flowed intermittently
through the Tsushima Strait in summer. In late July 2004, a large low-salinity water mass was detected in the Tsushima Strait.
At that time, the freshwater transport through the Tsushima Strait transiently reached about 12 × 104 m3s−1, which is estimated from observed acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) data along a ferryboat line and inferred salinity
profiles. This estimated value is more than double the maximum of the climatological monthly mean of the Changjiang discharge.
Furthermore, salinity and surface current data obtained by high frequency ocean radar (HF radar) indicate that water properties
at Mitsushima may occasionally represent part of the water flowing through the western channel via a countercurrent, although
Mitsushima is geographically located in the eastern channel. 相似文献
15.
基于MTSAT卫星的我国东部沿海雾区的自动识别 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
本文综合运用可见光反射率阈值法,3×3像元空间一致性检测法,红外亮温阈值法及双通道差值法,建立全天候海雾遥感监测算法,并利用MTSAT卫星资料,对2006年4～5月间我国东部沿海海雾进行个例监测试验,并进行卫星图象的目视真实性检验.监测结果表明,该方法能较好地实现云雾自动分离.在夜间,能有效分离低层云雾和晴空像元;当出现逆温雾时,雾仍可以被有效地判识出来. 相似文献
16.
Dynamic processes observed at a gas hydrate outcropping on the continental slope of the Gulf of Mexico 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
Michael F. Vardaro Ian R. MacDonald Leslie C. Bender Norman L. Guinasso Jr 《Geo-Marine Letters》2006,26(1):6-15
A deep-sea time-lapse camera and several temperature probes were deployed on the Gulf of Mexico continental shelf at a biological
community associated with a gas hydrate outcropping to study topographic and hydrologic changes over time. The deployment
site, Bush Hill (GC-185), is located at 27°47.5′ N and 91°15.0′ W at depths of ∼540 m. The digital camera recorded one still
image every 6 h for July-October in 2001, every 2 h for the month of June 2002, and every 6 h for the month of July 2002.
Temperature probes were in place at the site for the entire experimental period. The data recovered provide a record of processes
that occur at gas hydrate mounds. Sediment resuspension over the mound causes significant variation in luminosity of the time-lapse
photographs. A marked diurnal pattern can be seen in the temperature and luminosity records. No major change in shape or size
of the gas hydrate outcrop at this site was observed during this study. Stable topography of the gas hydrate mound, combined
with high bacterial activity and sediment turnover, appears to focus biological activity in the mound area. Frequency and
recurrence of sediment resuspension indicate that short-term change in the depth and distribution of surface sediments is
a feature of the benthos at the site. Because the sediment interface is a critical environment for hydrocarbon oxidation and
chemosynthesis, short-term variability and heterogeneity may be important characteristics of these settings. 相似文献
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Kristina B. Katsaros Paris W. Vachon W. Timothy Liu Peter G. Black 《Journal of Oceanography》2002,58(1):137-151
This article reviews several microwave instruments employed in research and analysis of tropical cyclones (TCs), typhoons,
and hurricanes. The instruments discussed include scatterometers, microwave radiometers, synthetic aperture radars (SARs),
and rain radar from space. Examples of the particular contribution by one or more of these instruments in analysis of several
storms illustrate the comprehensive new views provided by the SeaWinds scatterometers, the detailed high-resolution wind field
provided by RADARSAT-1 SAR, particularly inside and in the vicinity of hurricane “eyes,” and the presence of secondary flows
in the region between rainbands in TCs. The high spatial resolution of precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring
Mission's rain radar, combined with scatterometer or SAR data, give a significant improvement in the details that can be seen
from space, at the surface, and in the precipitating areas of TCs. The microwave instruments provide a penetrating view below
the upper level cirrus clouds.
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
19.
The literature on ocean wave forecasting falls into two categories, physics-based models and statistical methods. Since these two approaches have evolved independently, it is of interest to determine which approach can predict more accurately, and over what time horizons. This paper runs a comparative analysis of a well-known physics-based model for simulating waves near shore, SWAN, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regression and a frequency domain algorithm. Forecasts are run for the significant wave height, over horizons ranging from the current period (i.e., the analysis time) to 15 h. Seven data sets, four from the Pacific Ocean and three from the Gulf of Mexico, are used to evaluate the forecasts. The statistical models do extremely well at short horizons, producing more accurate forecasts in the 1–5 hour range. The SWAN model is superior at longer horizons. The crossover point, at which the forecast error from the two methods converges, is in the area of 6 h. Based on these results, the choice of statistical versus physics-based models will depend on the uses to which the forecasts will be put. Utilities operating wave farms, which need to forecast at very short horizons, may prefer statistical techniques. Navies or shipping companies interested in oceanic conditions over longer horizons will prefer physics-based models. 相似文献
20.
E. A. Sharkov Ya. N. Shramkov I. V. Pokrovskaya 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2012,48(9):900-908
The hypothesis about the interrelation of the integral water-vapor concentration (from data of microwave satellite systems) and plural tropical cyclogenesis in cyclonogenerating water areas of the World Ocean in 2001 is verified with the aid of the EVA-01 (IKI RAN) database (DB) with elements of the objectrelation type formed by the authors. It is experimentally proved in the work that there is a critical value of the integral water-vapor concentration (a peculiar necessary condition) at which the mature form of a tropical cyclone (TC) is formed with a lifetime exceeding 24 h. It is also experimentally proved that, in the same time interval, there is another group of TCs with a short lifetime (less than than 24 h) which do not possess a clearly pronounced boundary value of the water-vapor intensity and can be formed in a wide range of its values. The relations between the regions with an increased concentration of water vapor and genesis of TCs have become obvious only with the use of object-relation computer technologies. 相似文献