共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 390 毫秒
1.
日本南部黑潮路径变异对北太平洋地区的气候和环境具有显著的影响,对黑潮路径变异的研究具有重要的意义。本文利用POM(Princeton Ocean Model)数值模式模拟了日本南部黑潮的路径变异情况,分析了黑潮大弯曲路径形成的可能机制。研究结果表明,当黑潮处于非大弯曲路径时,相对位势涡度的平均值呈现递减趋势,说明日本南部低位势涡度水在不断积累,这样会使得四国再循环流的强度增强,迫使黑潮保持平直路径,同时,近岸黑潮垂直流速剪切增大,斜压不稳定性的作用也逐渐增大;当黑潮从非大弯曲路径向大弯曲路径过渡时,再循环流强度的减弱会导致黑潮的流速剪切减小。根据海表高度异常场以及海洋上层流场信息发现,近岸黑潮附近的气旋涡会随着再循环流区域反气旋涡的东侧向南运动,最终导致黑潮大弯曲的发生。分析涡流的能量,结果显示,黑潮大弯曲路径的形成与斜压不稳定性密切相关。 相似文献
2.
基于正压出入流模式, 利用条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法研究初始异常的位置与模态对日本南部黑潮路径变异的影响。以模式模拟出的黑潮平直路径的平衡态作为参考态, 计算CNOP, 考察该扰动随时间的发展, 并与随机扰动的发展进行对比。结果表明, CNOP 能够导致黑潮弯曲路径发生, 随机扰动则不能。因此, CNOP 可以作为导致日本南部黑潮路径发生弯曲的一种最优前期征兆。通过分析CNOP 和随机扰动的发展过程, 可以得出: (1) CNOP 使黑潮发展成弯曲路径的过程是一个气旋涡向下游传播并增长的过程。(2) 气旋涡的向东传播都是非线性项的作用, 也就是涡度平流造成的。(3) CNOP和随机扰动发展过程中所产生的气旋涡均会传播到下游区域, 但是CNOP 产生的气旋涡能够增强, 最终导致弯曲路径发生, 而随机扰动产生的气旋涡则会减弱, 并不能导致弯曲路径发生。分析发现, 在CNOP 实验中, 非线性作用使气旋涡增大; 但在随机扰动实验中, 非线性作用使气旋涡减弱, 所以非线性作用对日本南部黑潮路径发生弯曲有重要影响。(4) 底摩擦效应对日本南部黑潮路径变异影响较小。本文揭示的黑潮路径发生弯曲的最优前期征兆及其非线性发展机制, 对提高黑潮路径变异的预报技巧具有重要意义。 相似文献
3.
为准确模拟台风路径和强度,采用WRF模式比较不同微物理过程和积云对流过程参数化方案对台风路径和强度模拟的影响,并基于集合预报方法考虑对台风预报系统误差进行优化。选用4种微物理过程方案和3种积云对流参数化方案,针对1213号台风“启德”进行模拟,结果表明不同的参数化方案对台风路径和强度的预报结果有明显影响,积云对流过程参数化方案相对于微物理过程参数化方案更加敏感。基于不同参数化方案扰动成员的集合平均预报方法,对于台风路径和强度的模拟误差均有明显改善,台风路径误差随时间增幅较小,其结果优于全部12个单方案试验的模拟结果;从台风强度方面来看,基于集合预报方法模拟得到的台风强度变化趋势与实况结果一致,且误差较小,优于大多数试验方案。结果表明:采用不同微物理过程和积云对流过程参数化方案的组合构建的集合预报模型,对于台风路径和强度的模拟均有一定程度改善,减小了采用不同参数化方案产生的路径不确定性,使其在台风“启德”的路径模拟上与实况更为接近,可为提升台风预报能力提供科学参考。 相似文献
4.
西北太平洋黑潮路径变化与柔鱼CPUE的关系研究 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
利用西北太平洋长时间序列SST、黑潮路径、柔鱼渔获量数据,基于GIS技术分析了黑潮路径类型变化和离岸摆动及其对柔鱼CPUE的影响。分析结果表明,1990—2003年,黑潮弯曲发生的月份数占82％,其中整月发生弯曲的月份数占47％,共发生2次大弯曲、2次准弯曲、5次小弯曲。柔鱼年CPUE,在黑潮发生准弯曲年份最高,黑潮发生小弯曲年份较高,黑潮发生大弯曲年份和平直年份较低,黑潮大弯曲发生的强盛年份最低。柔鱼月CPUE高值时段,多是黑潮发生弯曲时段,且主要是C型弯曲。连续3月以上出现月CPUE高值段,黑潮路径模式是C型弯曲和平直路径交替出现。3天CPUE的高值时段,黑潮弯曲型的频次远高于平直型;较高值时段,黑潮弯曲型的频次稍高于平直型;中值时段,黑潮平直型频次稍高于弯曲型;较低值时段,黑潮平直型高于弯曲型;低值时段,黑潮平直型远高于弯曲型。 相似文献
5.
日本南部黑潮存在多种路径模态:近岸非大弯曲路径、离岸非大弯曲路径和大弯曲路径。黑潮延伸体的路径存在两种典型模态:收缩态和伸展态。从地理位置看, 日本南部黑潮和黑潮延伸体是相邻的, 但它们的路径状态是否存在关联一直存在争议。本文基于卫星观测的海表高度资料和长期的海洋高分辨率再分析资料, 对日本南部黑潮和黑潮延伸体路径状态之间的关联性进行定量分析, 结果表明:日本南部黑潮和黑潮延伸体的路径状态存在一定的关联。当日本南部黑潮处于近岸非大弯曲和大弯曲路径时, 黑潮延伸体主要处于伸展态; 当日本南部黑潮处于离岸非大弯曲时, 黑潮延伸体处于伸展态和收缩态的比例相当。进一步分析表明, 黑潮流轴处于伊豆海脊的位置部分决定了上述关系, 可能存在其他因素调制了两者的关联性。 相似文献
6.
过去的研究认为,黑潮延伸体的年代际振荡受来自其下游的太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）相关联的信号主导,但最近的观测表明这种调控机制在2017年9月之后不再成立。与此同时,黑潮延伸体的上游即日本南部黑潮正在发生一次大弯曲事件。利用26年（1993–2018年）的卫星高度计提供的海表高度距平数据和自组织映射（SOM）方法,本文研究了日本南部黑潮与黑潮延伸体的时空模态及其因果关系。结果表明,SOM能有效地提取两个海区的典型空间模态,且它们的演变轨迹表明当日本南部黑潮处于大弯曲（离岸型非大弯曲）路径时,黑潮延伸体趋于稳定（不稳定）态。基于SOM识别得到的海表面高度距平（SLA）特征区及特征时间模态,我们进一步利用一种最近发展的定量因果分析方法研究了两个流系之间的因果关系。研究发现,当黑潮大弯曲发生时,日本南部黑潮和黑潮延伸体之间存在双向因果,但因果关键区不同。前者对后者的影响集中在纪伊半岛东南侧及黑潮延伸体“两脊一槽”区域,而后者对前者的影响则集中在黑潮延伸体“两脊一槽”区域及黑潮再循环流区域。这说明黑潮大弯曲的发展对黑潮延伸体的稳定性有重要作用,同时黑潮延伸体通过调制南部再循环流影响日本南部黑潮的路径。不同的是,当离岸型非大弯曲路径发生时,只有从日本南部黑潮向黑潮延伸体的单向因果关系,且因果性主要集中在伊豆海脊及再循环流区域。这与该时期海表高度负异常沿日本南岸不断向位于下游的黑潮延伸体再循环流的传播有关,它使得黑潮延伸体变得不稳定。 相似文献
7.
使用Zebiak-Cane模式和条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法,研究初始误差和参数误差共同作用对ENSO春季预报障碍现象的影响。选取模式中的8个El Ni?o事件,包括4次强事件和4次弱事件,每个El Ni?o事件又分别从8个不同的起始时间做1 a的预报,这样一共64个预报实验。对每个实验分别计算CNOP误差(初始误差和参数误差同时存在时的最优误差),通过分析误差增长,发现CNOP误差引起的1 a后的预报误差随着初始预报时间的不同有较大差异,并且不同强度的El Ni?o事件也会影响CNOP误差的发展,增长位相中强事件的预报误差要比弱事件的预报误差大一些;而衰减位相中恰恰相反,弱事件的预报误差要比强事件的预报误差要大一些;同时也发现高频El Ni?o事件对误差增长率的影响较大。本结论有助于提高Zebiak-Cane模式预报ENSO的技巧。 相似文献
8.
通过对HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model(HYCOM)高分辨率海洋环流模式(1/12°)数值模拟结果的分析发现,该模式对1993—2003年的模拟结果出现了3次显著的黑潮大弯曲现象。研究表明,日本以南这3次黑潮大弯曲路径的形成与2种机制有关:沿30°N西传的海洋Rossby波将太平洋145°E附近海面高度正异常信号传到九州岛东南海域是第二次黑潮大弯曲的主要形成机制;而冲绳海槽北部海水的位势涡度负异常则有利于九州岛东南反气旋再循环流海域海面高度正异常,有助于第一次和第三次黑潮大弯曲路径的形成。 相似文献
9.
利用WOA13(1955-2012年)月平均数据提取东海黑潮主轴温度锋信息,并结合海表面温度、PN断面温度结构的季节变化特征,研究东海黑潮主轴温度在垂直方向和水平方向的季节变化,探讨黑潮主轴温度锋季节变化特征,为开展黑潮相关研究提供基础。结果表明WOA13数据对东海黑潮主轴温度锋信息的提取具有较好的效果;在PN断面上,冬、春季节的流核结构最为明显;在130~170 m深度上,东海黑潮主轴温度锋具有明显的季节变化特征,并且可以明显看到黑潮大弯曲的存在;温度锋在150 m上下的深度对黑潮路径的表征较为合理。 相似文献
10.
对2022年第12号台风“梅花”的主要特点、路径预报难点问题和路径预报误差特征进行分析,研究主要结论显示:(1)“梅花”登陆次数多、登陆强度强,是首个4次登陆不同省(市)的台风,也是2022年最强登陆台风,造成华东与东北地区长时间、大范围的风雨影响。(2)台风生成初期的中长期时效路径预报是路径预报难点之一,模式对台风主要影响系统的长时效预报存在明显偏差,针对模式的及时检验和订正对预报调整非常重要。(3)双台风或多涡旋情景下,集合预报发散度大,“梅花”陆上路径预报偏西偏慢,其东侧“南玛都”的强度和位置差异对其路径有明显影响。(4)台风变性过程中的移速误差是路径预报极大误差的来源,关注台风是否处于变性过程可作为调整台风移速预报的参考。未来开展多模式交叉实时检验,基于集合预报研发针对转向变性台风路径预报订正技术可为主观预报提供支撑。 相似文献
11.
Conditions for the formation of large meander (LM) of the Kuroshio are inferred from observational data, mainly obtained in the 1990s. Propagation of the small meander of the Kuroshio from south of Kyushu to Cape Shiono-misaki is a prerequisite for LM formation, and three more conditions must be satisfied. (1) The cold eddy carried by small meander interacts with the cold eddy in Enshu-nada east of the cape. During and just after the propagation of small meander, (2) the Kuroshio axis in the Tokara Strait maintains the northern position and small curvature, and (3) current velocity of the Kuroshio is not quite small. If the first condition is not satisfied, the Kuroshio path changes little. If the first condition is satisfied, but the second or third one is not, the Kuroshio transforms to the offshore non-large-meander path, not the LM path. All three conditions must be satisfied to form the large meander. For continuance of the large meander, the Kuroshio must maintain the small curvature of current axis in the Tokara Strait and a medium or large range of velocity and transport. These conditions for formation and continuance may be necessary for the large meander to occur. Moreover, effects of bottom topography on position and structure of the Kuroshio are described. Due to topography, the Kuroshio changes horizontal curvature and vertical inclination of current axis in the Tokara Strait, and is confined into either of two passages over the Izu Ridge at mid-depth. The former contributes to the second condition for the LM formation. 相似文献
12.
With the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS), this paper investigates the sensitive areas in targeted observation for predicting the Kuroshio large meander(LM) path using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach. To identify the sensitive areas, the optimal initial errors(OIEs) featuring the largest nonlinear evolution in the LM prediction are first calculated; the resulting OIEs are localized mainly in the upper2 500 m over the LM upstream region, and their spatial structure has... 相似文献
13.
Nagano Akira Yamashita Yusuke Hasegawa Takuya Ariyoshi Keisuke Matsumoto Hiroyuki Shinohara Masanao 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2019,40(4):525-539
Since September 2017, the Kuroshio has taken a large-meander (LM) path in the region south of Japan. We examined characteristics of the 2017–present LM path in comparison with previous LM paths, using tide gauge, altimetric sea surface height, and bottom pressure data. The 2017–present LM path was formed from a path passing through a channel south of Hachijo-jima Island, while a typical LM path originated from a path through a channel north of Miyake-jima Island. The meander trough of this atypical path was found to be shifted far to the east and to vary on a timescale of months. These characteristics are different from those of a typical LM path but they are similar to those of the 1981–1984 LM path. Therefore, we identified two types of LM path; a stable and unstable LM paths. The 2017–present unstable type large meander has a zonal scale greater than that of the 2004–2005 stable type large meander and protrudes from the eastern boundary of the Shikoku Basin, i.e., Izu-Ogasawara Ridge. No significant bottom pressure depression was observed, associated with the formation of the 2017–present LM path, indicating that baroclinic instability was not important in the formation of this LM path. Due to no significant bottom steering, even during the 2017–present LM period, a mesoscale current path disturbance occurred southeast of Kyushu, propagated eastward, and amplified the offshore displacement of the Kuroshio.
相似文献14.
Yoichi Ishikawa Toshiyuki Awaji Nobumasa Komori Takahiro Toyoda 《Journal of Oceanography》2004,60(2):293-301
A sensitivity experiment has been performed by assimilating altimetric data into a 1.5-layer primitive equation model as a
first attempt to examine the impact of initialization on forecasts of the Kuroshio path variability south of Japan. By exploiting
the advantage of an adjoint model, our approach clearly shows that a small meander off Shikoku Island has a large impact on
the prediction of meander growth in the Kuroshio region. Further, the strengthening of the Kuroshio current and its recirculation
clearly becomes an important factor in the development of the meander. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our
assimilation approach in identifying efficient initialization schemes on numerical forecasting of the Kuroshio south of Japan
and should help in the construction of an effective observing system for improving the forecasting.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
15.
Norihisa Usui Hiroyuki Tsujino Hideyuki Nakano Satoshi Matsumoto 《Journal of Oceanography》2013,69(6):647-670
This study investigates the long-term variability of the Kuroshio path south of Japan. Sensitivity experiments using a data-assimilative model suggest that the duration of the large meander (LM) strongly depends on the Kuroshio transport; specifically, low transport leads to a long duration of the LM. Actually, we find a good correlation between the duration of the past LMs and the Sverdrup transport estimated by a wind-driven linear baroclinic vorticity model. Then we explore favorable conditions for the LM and find a close relationship between the Kuroshio Extension (KE) state and the LM. That is, a precondition for the LM that the Kuroshio path on the Izu Ridge is fixed at a deep channel located around 34°N is achieved during a stable KE state. In addition, westward propagating signals with negative anomalies in the Kuroshio region and high sea-surface height (SSH) state east of Taiwan are key for generation of a small meander southeast of Kyushu that triggers a subsequent LM. The signals related to the above conditions change the upstream Kuroshio transport and velocity, which are consistent with features indicated by the former observational studies. Using reanalysis data, we construct long-time series of indices for the three conditions, which explain well the past LMs. The indices suggest that long-term non-LM states around 1970 and in the 1990s were attributed to a low-SSH state east of Taiwan and an unstable KE state, respectively. 相似文献
16.
Elizabeth M. Douglass Steven R. Jayne Frank O. Bryan Synte Peacock Mathew Maltrud 《Journal of Oceanography》2012,68(5):625-639
A high-resolution ocean model forced with an annually repeating atmosphere is used to examine variability of the Kuroshio, the western boundary current in the North Pacific Ocean. A large meander (LM) in the path of the Kuroshio south of Japan develops and disappears in a highly bimodal fashion on decadal timescales. The modeled meander is comparable in timing and spatial extent to an observed feature in the region. Various characteristics of the LM are examined, including relative vorticity, transport, and velocity shear. The many similarities between the model and observations indicate that the meander results from intrinsic oceanic variability, which is represented in this climatologically forced model. Each LM is preceded by a smaller “trigger” meander that originates at the south end of Kyushu, moves up the coast, and develops into the LM. However, there are also many meanders very similar in character to the trigger meander that do not develop into LMs. Formation of an LM only occurs when a deep anticyclone associated with the trigger meander forms near Koshu Seamount. Furthermore, the major axis of that deep anticyclone must be oriented away from the coast, rather than alongshore. In the specific case of interaction of a trigger meander with a deep anticyclone with major axis oriented away from the coastline, LM formation occurs. 相似文献
17.
Variations of the Kuroshio Axis South of Kyushu in Relation to the Large Meander of the Kuroshio 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The characteristics of the Kuroshio axis south of Kyushu, which meanders almost sinusoidally, are clarified in relation to
the large meander of the Kuroshio by analyzing water temperature data during 1961–95 and sea level during 1984–95. The shape
of the Kuroshio axis south of Kyushu is classified into three categories of small, medium, and large amplitude of meander.
The small amplitude category occupies more than a half of the large-meander (LM) period, while the medium amplitude category
takes up more than a half of the non-large-meander (NLM) period. Therefore, the amplitude and, in turn, the curvature of the
Kuroshio axis is smaller on average during the LM period than the NLM period. The mean Kuroshio axis during the LM period
is located farther north at every longitude south of Kyushu than during the NLM period, with a slight difference west of the
Tokara Islands and a large difference to the east. A northward shift of the Kuroshio axis in particular east of the Tokara
Islands induces small amplitude and curvature of the meandering shape during the LM period. During the NLM period, the meandering
shape and position south of Kyushu change little with Kuroshio volume transport. In the LM formation stage, the variation
of the Kuroshio axis is small west of the Tokara Islands but large to the east due to a small meander of the Kuroshio. In
the LM decay stage, the Kuroshio meanders greatly south of Kyushu and is located stably near the coast southeast of Kyushu.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
18.
Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis was applied to a 50-year long time series of monthly mean positions of the Kuroshio path south of Japan from a regional reanalysis. Three leading EOF modes characterize the contributions from three typical paths of the Kuroshio meander: the typical large meander path, the offshore nonlarge meander path, and the nearshore non-large meander path, respectively. Accordingly, the spatial variation characteristics of oceanic anomaly fields can be depicted by... 相似文献