首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到10条相似文献,搜索用时 109 毫秒
1.
In using the PGCEVD (Poisson-Gumbel Compound Extreme Value Distribution) model to calculate return values of typhoon wave height, the quantitative selection of the threshold has blocked its application. By analyzing the principle of the threshold selection of PGCEVD model and in combination of the change point statistical methods, this paper proposes a new method for quantitative calculation of the threshold in PGCEVD model. Eleven samples from five engineering points in several coastal waters of Guangdong and Hainan, China, are calculated and analyzed by using PGCEVD model and the traditional Pearson type III distribution (P-Ⅲ) model, respectively. By comparing the results of the two models, it is shown that the new method of selecting the optimal threshold is feasible. PGCEVD model has more stable results than that of P-Ⅲ model and can be used for the return wave height in every direction.  相似文献   

2.
A non-traditional fuzzy quantification method is presented in the modeling of an extreme significant wave height. First, a set of parametric models are selected to fit time series data for the significant wave height and the extrapolation for extremes are obtained based on high quantile estimations. The quality of these results is compared and discussed. Then, the proposed fuzzy model, which combines Poisson process and generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) model, is applied to characterizing the wave extremes in the time series data. The estimations for a long-term return value are considered as time-varying as a threshold is regarded as non-stationary. The estimated intervals coupled with the fuzzy theory are then introduced to construct the probability bounds for the return values. This nontraditional model is analyzed in comparison with the traditional model in the degree of conservatism for the long-term estimate. The impact on the fuzzy bounds of extreme estimations from the non stationary effect in the proposed model is also investigated.  相似文献   

3.
As a part of our calibration/validation activities five months of SARAL/AltiKa wave data have been analyzed in this study. A robust quality control procedure using threshold values on signal and retrieved wave heights was implemented before the assimilation. Assimilation runs in the wave model Météo-France (MFWAM) were performed for a long period. The validation of the model outputs was performed with independent wave observations from altimeter and buoy data. The results indicate good performance in terms of bias and scatter index for the significant wave height and the peak wave period. Statistical analyses were performed for different ocean basins (high and intermediate latitudes and tropics). The use of SARAL/AltiKa and Jason-2 wave data combined was also investigated. This leads to further improvements for the analysis and forecast periods. In other respects, the impact of the assimilation of SARAL/AltiKa wave data is discussed for waves under strong wind conditions such as typhoons Fitow and Danas which occurred in early October 2013.  相似文献   

4.
基于随机集合的非传统型有效波极值模型   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The analysis and design of offshore structures necessitates the consideration of wave loads. Realistic modeling of wave loads is particularly important to ensure reliable performance of these structures. Among the available methods for the modeling of the extreme significant wave height on a statistical basis, the peak over threshold method has attracted most attention. This method employs Poisson process to character- ize time-varying properties in the parameters of an extreme value distribution. In this paper, the peak over threshold method is reviewed and extended to account for subjectivity in the modeling. The freedom in selecting the threshold and the time span to separate extremes from the original time series data is incorpo- rated as imprecision in the model. This leads to an extension from random variables to random sets in the probabilistic model for the extreme significant wave height. The extended model is also applied to different periods of the sampled data to evaluate the significance of the climatic conditions on the uncertainties of the parameters.  相似文献   

5.
根据香港附近海区1985,1986年两次台风大浪的实测资料,以有效波高为相应水平,对波群作统计分析,得出可供海洋工程参考的波群连长、波群重复长度、波群出现频率以及波群中最大波高与有效波高的关系等。并将统计值与理论值作比较,结果表明:统计值大于“连”的理论值,而与包线理论中采用合田修正公式的汁算值相近。  相似文献   

6.
Laboratory experiments were performed to study the wave damping induced by a porous bed. During the propagation of waves over a porous medium the wave characteristics change: a significant wave height attenuation of about 20–30% is observed and, in almost all cases, an increase in wavelength. The wave decay is found to depend on the wave characteristics like the wave height, the wavelength and the wave shape. We have also studied the influence of the geometric properties of the porous bed (i.e. thickness and length) on the wave dissipation. It is found that the attenuation of the wave height increases with the permeable bed thickness and that there is a maximum wave dissipation for a length of the porous seabed equal to 2.0–2.5 times the wavelength. A comparison is also made of our findings with available literature results. A parametric study of the wave damping has been performed by varying the values of the resistance coefficients derived by both literature and experiments. Literature analytical models have been applied by using the resistance coefficients that better describe our flow conditions. All models in use underpredict the observed wave attenuation for any sensible values of the resistance coefficients.  相似文献   

7.
The extreme values of wave climate data are of great interest in a number of different ocean engineering applications, including the design and operation of ships and offshore structures, marine energy generation, aquaculture and coastal installations. Typically, the return values of certain met-ocean parameters such as significant wave height are of particular importance. There exist many methods for estimating such return values, including the initial distribution approach, the block maxima approach and the peaks-over threshold approach. In a climate change perspective, projections of such return values to a future climate are of great importance for risk management and adaptation purposes. However, many approaches to extreme value modelling assume stationary conditions and it is not straightforward how to include non-stationarity of the extremes due to for example climate change. In this paper, various non-stationary GEV-models for significant wave height are developed that account for trends and shifts in the extreme wave climate due to climate change. These models are fitted to block maxima in a particular set of wave data obtained for a historical control period and two future projections for a future period corresponding to different emission scenarios. These models are used to investigate whether there are trends in the data within each period that influence the extreme value analysis and need to be taken into account. Moreover, it will be investigated whether there are significant inter-period shifts or trends in the extreme wave climate from the historical period to the future periods. The results from this study suggest that the intra-period trends are not statistically significant and that it might be reasonable to ignore these in extreme value analyses within each period. However, when it comes to comparing the different data sets, i.e. the historical period and the future projections, statistical significant inter-period changes are detected. Hence, the accumulated effect of a climatic trend may not be negligible over longer time periods. Interestingly enough, such statistically significant shifts are not detected if stationary extreme value models are fitted to each period separately. Therefore, the non-stationary extreme value models with inter-period shifts in the parameters are proposed as an alternative for extreme value modelling in a climate change perspective, in situations where historical data and future projections are available.  相似文献   

8.
尤再进 《海洋与湖沼》2022,53(4):1015-1025
重现期波高是港口海岸及海洋工程设计中不可回避的一个重要设计参数,尤其对深水海港、海上平台、海底油气管道、沿海核电站等重大涉海工程设计具有巨大的经济价值和深远的社会效益。但是,现有重现期波高推算缺乏统一的计算方法,导致计算结果相差悬殊。研究重现期波高的统一化计算方法,分析重现期波高计算中存在的各种不确定因素,提出减少这些不确定因素的新方法,建立误差小、应用方便、方法统一的重现期波高计算方法。基于澳大利亚悉尼站的长期连续观测波浪数据,研究发现:广义帕累托函数(generalized Pareto distribution III,GPD-III)和威布尔(Weibull)是重现期波高计算的最佳候选极值分布函数,新推导的函数形状参数计算公式较好提高重现期波高的计算精度,极值波高数据的分析方法和样本大小是影响重现期波高计算精确度的两个重要因素,短期波浪资料和年极值法可能高估重现期波高值。逐个风暴的极值波高数据分析法及最佳候选极值分布函数GPD-III和Weibull建议应用于涉海工程设计的重现期波高推算。  相似文献   

9.
1988-2002年黄海和渤海风浪后报   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
本文对黄海和渤海风浪开展长期后报实验,时间范围覆盖1988至2002年,并分析相应的区域波候特征。首先,模式输出的月平均有效波高和卫星数据比对一致。其次,我们讨论了气候态月平均有效波高和平均波周期的时空分布特征。有效波高和平均波周期的气候态空间分布都呈现出西北-东南、或由近岸向深水区增加的趋势,这种空间的分布特征和局地的风强迫和水深密切相关。同时,海浪参数的季节变化也较显著。进一步,我们统计分析了风场和有效波高的极值,给出并揭示了黄海和渤海多年一遇有效波高的空间结构,并讨论了有效波高极值和风强迫极值之间的联系。  相似文献   

10.
The presented work aims at validating the generalization of the asymptotic distribution model of Boccotti for large wave heights recently proposed by Tayfun [1] to laboratory generated mixed sea states with two-peak spectra. The input wave spectra are modelled as the sum of two JONSWAP spectra describing unidirectional wave systems with different or identical directions of propagation (crossing or following mixed seas). In order to account for the effect of the energetically dominant wave system on the largest observed waves, the Boccotti's parameters were calculated at the absolute minimum of the autocorrelation function which can differ from the first minimum for some cases of mixed seas, such as those dominated by the swell or seas with comparable contribution of the two spectral components. So far the proposed model has been validated elsewhere against samples of large wave heights exceeding the significant wave height in wind seas and in mechanically generated long-crested seas, both characterized by unimodal spectra and strong third-order nonlinearities. The present study demonstrates that it can predict equally well the tail of the distributions for mixed seas, irrespective of the type of the mixed sea, particularly when the third-order statistics is relatively large. Typically, the mixed seas from the considered offshore basin experiment display such conditions as the propagation distance from the wavemaker increases, though this effect is less pronounced for mixed following than for mixed crossing wave conditions. Moreover, the generalized model remains valid irrespective of the sign of the fourth-order sum Λ which is a key parameter of the distribution. Its good predictive ability is quantified here by the root-mean-square errors between observations and theory.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号