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1.
黄浦江年最高潮位变化关系到上海市的防洪安全,本文基于米市渡站1970－2019年年最高潮位、太湖流域降水量等数据,研究了近50 年来黄浦江上游年最高潮位的变化趋势和变异特性、发生频率变化以及潮位变化的驱动因子。结果表明：年最高潮位在1970－2019年总体呈显著上升趋势,上升幅度为81 cm,年均上升1.62 cm。1995年之后出现跳跃式的波动上升,1996－2002年相对1995年之前较大幅度上升,2003－2011年相比1996－2002年出现较明显下降,之后又较大幅度上升。随着潮位升高,各频率对应的最高潮位均较大幅度增加,升高幅度均达0.9 m以上,五十年一遇、百年一遇、千年一遇高潮位分别由1970年条件下的3.77 m、3.81 m、3.94 m升高到2019年条件下的4.71 m、4.75 m、4.92 m。与此同时,相同潮位下的重现期急剧减小,高潮位发生频率大幅度增加。分析认为,年最高潮位升高受气候变化和人类活动的综合影响,1970－1995年主要受降水量变化等气候因素的影响,1996－2019年主要受水利工程、台风频率增加等因素的影响,尤其是太湖流域太浦河等工程的修建起重要作用。 相似文献
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利用钱塘江河口沿程的闸口、七堡、仓前、盐官、澉浦和乍浦等7个潮位站的实测资料,分析了1953～2007年各站年最高潮位、年平均高潮位、年平均低潮位的不同变化特性,并对主要的影响因素进行了分析。线性拟合结果表明,自20世纪50年代以来,钱塘江河口沿程各潮位站年最高潮位抬升幅度达0.57～1.05m,其中七堡站年最高潮位抬升值最大;年最高潮位显著抬升的时间主要发生在20世纪90年代后,该时段年最高潮位抬升值占年最高潮位总抬升值的70.5%～92.6%,极值潮位出现频率显著增加。分析表明,1990年后钱塘江围垦面积仅占总围垦面积的21.6%,因此河口围垦不是造成年最高潮位抬升的唯一因素,而影响浙江的台风频次增多及围垦造成的潮波反射加剧是造成高潮位抬升的主要原因。钱塘江河口年平均高潮位的沿程变化出现趋势性的抬升现象,各站年平均高潮位抬高幅度接近,为0.43～0.49m,但不同潮位站因与围垦河段的相对位置不同,年平均高潮位抬升的历史过程存在明显差异。河口下游段的澉浦、乍浦站年平均高潮位呈现单一的抬升趋势,且与河口逐年累计围垦面积存在很好的相关关系(相关系数大于0.95);而河口上游段的闸口—盐官河段则以1970年为界,年平均高潮位明显有两次抬升过程,受围涂进程影响的机制比较复杂。钱塘江河口年平均低潮位多年来维持在一个相对稳定的水平上,但沿程年际间平均低潮位的变化却不相同。河口上游段的潮位站受径流丰枯及其引起的江道冲淤影响,年平均低潮位年代际呈现出波动的特性;澉浦以下的潮位站年平均低潮位受潮汐控制为主,年代际变化幅度甚微。钱塘江河口不同河段因受径流、潮流、治江围垦等因素的影响程度不同,其潮位特征值沿程的变化特点也不同,需要在河口工程设计、防洪减灾与河口治理等方面引起重视。 相似文献
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根据1950-2014年65a间的107次对天津滨海区域及附近有显著影响的风暴潮的观测数据,分析了天津沿岸风暴潮的特性,结果表明天津一年四季都有发生风暴潮灾的可能,并且8、10和11月是风暴潮灾发生的高峰期。分别利用1950-1979年年最高潮位和1980-2012年年最高潮位计算天津沿海风暴潮重现期潮位值,发现后者所计算的潮位值明显高于前者,不仅表明天津沿海风暴潮高潮位有升高的趋势,也说明了天津沿海潮情发生了变化;用1950-2012年塘沽验潮站年最高潮位,采用耿贝尔分布,考虑了特大值的影响,确定了考证重现期为400a,得到的重现期潮位值能够很好地拟合塘沽验潮站年最高潮位的经验累积频率点;对1950-2012年年极值潮位进行了沉降量校正,计算的重现期潮位值明显增大。 相似文献
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海平面变化对太湖流域排涝的影响 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
太湖流域位于长江三角洲地区,其排涝过程受长江口海平面变化及潮位变化的控制。本文采用一维河网非恒定流理论,建立了太湖流域河网水文模型,并对1991年太湖流域洪涝过程进行的模拟。在此基础上,假定当太湖流域发生1991年特大暴雨过程时,海平面上升0.5m和长江口发生了百年一遇高潮位,太湖最高水位可分别达到5.01m和4.99m,整个梅雨期排涝量分别比1991年少排14.9×108m3和13.1×108m3,加剧了该地区洪涝灾害的严峻程度。 相似文献
6.
文章论述长江口水文情势。阐明形成本地区潮位变化的影响机制是海洋潮汐的周期性涨落;构成潮位特征值大辐度变化的重要因素是台风暴潮。着重分析了长江口的可能最高潮位的主要组成成份——台风增水,暴雨增水和天文潮位。 选择高桥作为长江口代表站,进行累加频率和抽样误差之计算,得到长江口可能最高潮位。千年一遇为 6.86米（H_(0.1%)= 6.86 m）,万年一遇为 7.67米 （H_(0.10%)= 7.67m.） 相似文献
7.
根据长江口6个主要潮位站1993-2008年潮位资料,通过经验正交函数分析法(EOF法)分析了长时间序列和三峡工程前后月平均高潮位变化规律以及2000年的日高潮位变化规律,并探究其影响因素。结果表明:EOF分析前三个主成分贡献率为98.19%,可以反映潮位变化的主要过程。EOF1的影响因子是径流量,在空间上均为正值,呈上游至下游递减趋势,时间系数呈季节性变化;EOF2的影响因子是月平均海平面变化,在空间上有明显的分布差异,时间系数总体有上升趋势。三峡工程前后影响因子的作用有一定变化,径流量的影响增强,海平面减小。徐六泾以上河段的潮位站受径流丰枯影响,徐六泾以下高潮位受平均海平面控制更大。 相似文献
8.
天津市滨海新区风暴潮灾害风险评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据经地面沉降订正后的1959～2005年海河闸站年极值最高潮位数据,运用Gumbel型和P～型计算方法求得不同频率年极值高潮位;根据历史上典型风暴潮淹没情景,在现有防潮堤的情况下,运用圣维南和薄壁堰自由出流等公式推求不同频率风暴潮进潮量;利用开发的无源和有源淹没程序计算不同频率风暴潮淹没范围。结果如下:天津市滨海新区出现频率为5%、1%和0.5%的年最高潮位分别达4.54m、4.92m和5.08m(大沽零点基面);现状条件下,3种频率风暴潮可能淹没的土地面积分别达km2、km2和118.50km2;淹没损失分别达1.79×108元、3.93×108元和5.06×108元。 相似文献
9.
根据经地面沉降订正后的1959～2005年海河闸站年极值最高潮位数据,运用Gumbel型和P～型计算方法求得不同频率年极值高潮位;根据历史上典型风暴潮淹没情景,在现有防潮堤的情况下,运用圣维南和薄壁堰自由出流等公式推求不同频率风暴潮进潮量;利用开发的无源和有源淹没程序计算不同频率风暴潮淹没范围.结果如下:天津市滨海新区出现频率为5％、1％和0.5％的年最高潮位分别达4.54m、4.92m和5.08m(大沽零点基面);现状条件下,3种频率风暴潮可能淹没的土地面积分别达km2、km2和118.50km2;淹没损失分别达1.79×108元、3.93×108元和5.06×108元. 相似文献
10.
基于历史数据的分析,选择历史上强度最强的台风"荷贝"作为设计超强台风的强度,最不利路径的台风"雪莉"作为设计路径,作为深圳香港海域设计超强台风。采用海洋-陆架区-海岸三重嵌套网格建立的天文潮-风暴潮-台风浪耦合模型计算设计超强台风遭遇天文大潮的高潮位登陆时深圳香港海域的可能最高潮位和浪高。计算结果表明,大鹏湾北部和香港吐露港内,可能最高风暴潮位在3.00 m以上,浪高达到4.0～5.0 m;香港维多利亚港风暴潮位2.92 m,深圳香港水域东部南部在2.50 m以上,浪高3.0～5.0 m。可能最高风暴潮位比大鹏湾防潮警戒水位高1.62 m左右,比香港维多利亚港200年一遇的潮位高0.50 m。 相似文献
11.
Johanna Mattila Glen Chaplin Michele R. Eilers Kenneth L. Heck Jr. Jonathan P. O'Neal John F. Valentine 《Journal of Sea Research》1999,41(4):209
Fish, epibenthos and macroinfauna were collected in a Zostera marina bed and nearby unvegetated sediments in the estuary of the Damariscotta River, on the mid-coast of Maine. Samples of epibenthic fauna and fish were collected at low tides both during day and night, and samples of infauna at low tides during the day. The mean density of Zostera shoots in the study area was 335 m−2. Abundance and species number of fish were greater at night than during the day and greater in eelgrass beds (Z. marina) than in unvegetated habitats. Daytime fish collections were dominated by Atlantic silversides (Medinia medinia), while juvenile winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) dominated night collections. Also Zostera-associated epifaunal abundances and number of species were significantly higher at night than during the day. Mysis stenolepis, Idotea balthica and Littorina obtusata were dominant species in the epifauna samples. Of the total of 37 invertebrate species encountered, only five occurred both in the infaunal and epifaunal samples. Nineteen different taxa were collected from the benthic core samples. The most abundant invertebrate infaunal taxa were sipunculids, the polychaete Nereis virens, and oligochaetes. Infaunal invertebrate abundances and species diversity were significantly higher in eelgrass beds than in unvegetated sediments. The abundance and number of species of benthic invertebrates were also positively correlated to seagrass biomass. Community diversity values (H′) were relatively low but fit well in the general pattern of decreasing diversity towards northern latitudes. 相似文献
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利用美国冰中心和雪冰中心提供的海冰资料和我国南极考察现场的海冰观测资料,对南极海冰的长期变化进行了研究.研究表明20世纪70年代后期是多冰期;80年代是少冰期;90年代南极海冰属于上升趋势,后期偏多,区域性变化差别大,东南极海冰偏多,西南极海冰即南极半岛两侧尤其是威德尔海区和别林斯高晋海的冰明显偏少.东南极和西南极海冰的变化趋势总是反相的.90年代后期普里兹湾的海冰明显偏多,南极大陆陆架冰外缘线总体没有明显的收缩,有崩解也有再生的自然变化现象.西南极威德尔海的龙尼冰架和罗斯海冰架东部崩解和收缩趋势明显,东南极的冰架也有崩解和收缩,但没有西南极明显.陆架冰崩解向海洋输送的冰山对全球海平面升高有一定的影响.目前南极冰盖断裂崩解形成的冰山,向海洋输入的水量可使全球海平面上升约14mm.南极海冰没有随着全球气候温暖化而明显减少,而是按照东南极和西南极反相的变化规律进行周期性的变化、调整和制约. 相似文献
13.
L.A. Cifuentes R.B. Coffin L. Solorzano W. Cardenas J. Espinoza R.R. Twilley 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1996,43(6):781-800
Variations in elemental and isotopic ratios of suspended particulate matter (SPM) were investigated in the Guayas River Estuary Ecosystem (GREE) that empties into the Gulf of Guayaquil, Ecuador. Detritus in the system was identified on the basis of extremely high carbon:chlorophyll aratios (>1000). This material had mean δ13C of −26·4±0·3, δ15N of +4·8±0·2, and (C:N)atomicof 14·1±0·9. The isotopic data were comparable to measurements reported for fresh and degrading mangrove leaves, whereas the elemental ratio was comparatively enriched in nitrogen. Isotope measurements of SPM throughout the GREE were more similar to values for riverine material and detritus compared with that for the coastal end-member. Values indicative ofin situproduced algae, sewage and shrimp pond effluent were only found at selected sites. Bacterial bioassays, which were used to document potential sources of dissolved organic matter in the GREE, were isotopically similar to SPM. This correspondence coupled with the relatively low (C:N)aof SPM could be explained by bacterial immobolization of nitrogen onto detritus. Finally, tidal variations of (C:N)aand δ13C at a brackish mangrove site were similar in magnitude to spatial variations encountered throughout the GREE. Based on these results, the authors caution that care must be taken when samples are taken for food-web studies in these systems. 相似文献
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关于南海暖水季节和年际变化的研究 总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1
王启 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2003,33(6):821-824
阐述了研究南海暖水的意义 ,综述了关于南海暖水的现状 ,提出了关于南海暖水季节和年际变化方面应该研究的问题 相似文献
16.
A three-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate sea level and velocity variations in the South China Sea for 1992–1995. The model is driven by daily wind and daily sea surface temperature fields derived from the NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. The four-year model outputs are analyzed using time-domain Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF). Spatial and temporal variations of the first two modes from the simulation compare favorably with those derived from satellite altimetry. Mode 1, which is associated with a southern gyre, shows symmetric seasonal reversal. Mode 2, which contributes to a northern gyre, is responsible for the asymmetric seasonal and interannual variations. In winter, the southern and northern cyclonic gyres combine into a strong basin-wide cyclonic gyre. In summer, a cyclonic northern gyre and an anticyclonic southern gyre form a dipole with a jet leaving the coast of Vietnam. Interannual variations are particularly noticeable during El Niño. The winter gyre is generally weakened and confined to the southern basin, and the summer dipole structure does not form. Vertical motions weaken accordingly with the basin-wide circulation. Variations of the wind stress curl in the first two EOF modes coincide with those of the model-derived sea level and horizontal velocities. The mode 1 wind stress curl, significant in the southern basin, coincides with the reversal of the southern gyre. The mode 2 curl, large in the central basin, is responsible for the asymmetry in the winter and summer gyres. Lack of the mode 2 contribution during El Niño events weakens the circulation. The agreement indicates that changes in the wind stress curl contribute to the seasonal and interannual variations in the South China Sea. 相似文献
17.
During the 1990s many studies on zooplankton in the Japan Sea have been carried out. In this review, I have synthesized the study of horizontal distribution, seasonal and annual variations of zooplankton biomass, and ecological characteristics of major component species in the southern Japan Sea, which area is influenced by the warm Tsushima Current. The zooplankton biomass (annual mean) in the southern Japan Sea was lower than in the subarctic Pacific, including the northern Japan Sea, and similar to biomass levels in Kuroshio waters. Temporal variations in zooplankton biomass showed both seasonal and year-to-year components. Seasonal biomass increases to a maximum in spring with a weak secondary peak in autumn. As for long-term changes, 3–6 year cycles were identified, with the dynamics of the surface warm Tsushima Current and the subsurface cold water playing important roles in determining the yearly zooplankton community structure and biomass. Cold water species in the southern Japan Sea had extensive diel vertical migrations whose range is restricted in summer by the development of a thermocline. Among these species, the herbivores Euphausia pacifica and Metridia pacifica encounter a lower food supply, resulting in lower growth rates. The vertical dispersal of epipelagic carnivorous zooplankton such as Sagitta elegans and Themisto japonica to the deep-sea is probably facilitated by reduced interspecific competition. Their interaction with Japan Sea Proper Water, characterized by near-zero temperatures in the meso- and bathypelagic zones suppresses growth rates of the mesopelagic zooplankton. The lack of micronektonic predators in the mesopelagic zone may allow the persistence of slow growing populations. 相似文献
18.
Eitarou Oka 《Journal of Oceanography》2009,65(2):151-164
Temperature and salinity data from 2003 through 2006 from Argo profiling floats have been analyzed to examine the formation
and circulation of the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) and the interannual variation of its properties over the
entire distribution region. STMW is formed in late winter in the zonally-elongated recirculation gyre south of the Kuroshio
and its extension, which extends north of ∼28°N, from 135°E to near the date line. The recirculation gyre consists of several
anticyclonic circulations, in each of which thick STMW with a characteristic temperature is formed. After spring, the thick
STMW tends to be continually trapped in the respective circulations, remaining in the formation region. From this stagnant
pool of thick STMW, some portion seeps little by little into the southern region, where southwestward subsurface currents
advect relatively thin STMW as far as 20°N to the south and just east of Taiwan to the west. The STMW formed in the recirculation
gyre becomes colder, less saline, and denser to the east, with an abrupt change of properties across 140°E and a gradual change
east of 140°E. The STMW formed east of 140°E exhibits coherent interannual variations, increasing its temperature by ∼1°C
from 2003 through 2006 and also increasing its salinity by ∼0.05 from 2003 through 2005. These property changes are clearly
detected in the southern region as far downstream as just east of Taiwan, with reasonable time lags. 相似文献
19.
根据Huang和Qiu 1995年的潜沉率计算公式,采用同化的海洋模式资料和海洋-大气界面的通量观测资料,计算了北太平洋副热带海域3个模态水形成区逐年的潜沉率,研究了潜沉率产生年际变化的机制.研究结果表明:西部、中部和东部3个模态水形成区潜沉率的年际变化主要周期分别为6,2~5和2 a;北太平洋副热带模态水的3个形成区的潜沉率都发现年代际的变化特征:在1985年以前,西部模态水形成区的潜沉率年际变化最为显著,但1985后年际变化振幅明显减小;在中部模态水形成区,1975~1992年间潜沉率随时间的变化的振幅较大,潜沉率在这段时间内的平均值也达到33.99 m/a,而在1970~1975年间和1993~1998年间潜沉率都小于20 m/a;西部副热带模态水形成区的潜沉率的年际变化与这里海面的净热通量的年际变化有很好的相关性,中部副热带模态水形成区潜沉率的年际变化则取决于局地Ekman流的年际变化,而在东部模态水形成区局地风应力旋度的变化直接影响潜沉率的大小. 相似文献
20.
《African Journal of Marine Science》2013,35(1):93-107
Aerial fish-spotting flights were carried out between Cape Frio and Palgrave Point, off the northern coast of South West Africa, during February and March 1982. Results showed a pronounced drop in the number of shoals of pelagic fish (anchovy Engraulis capensis and pilchard Sardinops ocellata) within the area from one month to the next. Consideration of available hydro-acoustic survey data, environmental data and egg counts led to the conclusion that the decline in shoal abundance was brought about by a southward migration of shoals, and that the migration was possibly triggered by environmental changes between January and February 1982. The implied time lag of 14—32 days is difficult to explain, but it could have been a consequence of favourable spawning conditions which still prevailed during February, coupled with the development of dense phytoplankton to the south of the survey area during March. 相似文献