共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
简要论述了Copula理论与几种常用的二维Archimedean Copula函数的性质和适用性。以粤东汕头海域妈屿历年最高增水高度与相应风速的遭遇为研究实例,在分别采用3个三参数的概率分布模式:广义极值分布(GEV)、Weibull分布(WBL)和皮尔逊Ⅲ型(P-Ⅲ)分布对两个边缘分布(年最高增水高度与相应风速)拟合优度检验基础上构建了两变量联合概率分布模型。主要结果如下:(1) 年最大增水高度与相应风速的边缘分布分别服从Weibull分布和P-Ⅲ型分布;(2) 拟合优度检验指标表明二者的最优连接函数为Archimedean Copula类的Gumbel-Hougaard Copula;(3) 重现期介于2~200 a之间的边缘分布与同频率的联合分布的重现水平相对差值大约介于6.7%~22.2%之间;(4) 特定风速设计频率条件下,随年最大增水设计频率的减小,二者的遭遇概率也随之迅速减小;反之,特定增水设计频率随风速条件频率的减小,二者的遭遇概率随之明显增大。 相似文献
2.
重现期波高是港口海岸及海洋工程设计中不可回避的一个重要设计参数,尤其对深水海港、海上平台、海底油气管道、沿海核电站等重大涉海工程设计具有巨大的经济价值和深远的社会效益。但是,现有重现期波高推算缺乏统一的计算方法,导致计算结果相差悬殊。研究重现期波高的统一化计算方法,分析重现期波高计算中存在的各种不确定因素,提出减少这些不确定因素的新方法,建立误差小、应用方便、方法统一的重现期波高计算方法。基于澳大利亚悉尼站的长期连续观测波浪数据,研究发现:广义帕累托函数(generalized Pareto distribution III,GPD-III)和威布尔(Weibull)是重现期波高计算的最佳候选极值分布函数,新推导的函数形状参数计算公式较好提高重现期波高的计算精度,极值波高数据的分析方法和样本大小是影响重现期波高计算精确度的两个重要因素,短期波浪资料和年极值法可能高估重现期波高值。逐个风暴的极值波高数据分析法及最佳候选极值分布函数GPD-III和Weibull建议应用于涉海工程设计的重现期波高推算。 相似文献
3.
Prediction of Extreme Significant Wave Height from Daily Maxima 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
For prediction of the extreme significant wave height in the ocean areas where long term wave data are not available, the empirical method of extrapolating short term data (1-3 years) is used in design practice. In this paper two methods are proposed to predict extreme significant wave height based on short-term daily maxima. According to the da-a recorded by the Oceanographic Station of Liaodong Bay at the Bohai Sea, it is supposed that daily maximum wave heights are statistically independent. The data show that daily maximum wave heights obey log-normal distribution, and that the numbers of daily maxima vary from year to year, obeying binomial distribution. Based on these statistical characteristics, the binomial-log-normal compound extremum distribution is derived for prediction of extreme significant wave heights (50-100 years). For examination of its accuracy and validity, the prediction of extreme wave heights is based on 12 years' data at this station, and based on each 3 years' data respectively 相似文献
4.
提出了一种将波浪中倾斜板问题等效化简为波浪中水平板单元组的方法,该方法建立在使用分离变量法求解水工结构边值问题的基础上,并使用伽辽金法精确求解连续边界条件,确定考虑衰减波态的速度势函数,从而求解没水倾斜板结构的消波性能。等效化简法计算精度于边界元法相当,且计算单元数量少、开销低。基于二维线性势波理论,对没水倾斜板式防波堤消波性能分析显示,没水板的倾斜角度、没水深度与板长是结构消波性能的控制因素:没水倾斜板防波堤的消波性能优于没水水平板防波堤的消波性能,随着没水板结构的倾斜角度增大,没水倾斜板结构的波浪透射系数显著减小,且长板优于短板,浅板优于深板;与前人的水槽实验对比显示,相对没水深度与波陡影响结构的消波性能,且波陡造成的波浪破碎贡献了显著的波能消耗。该结论对板式防波堤的结构配置、优化设计有重要意义。 相似文献
5.
A procedure to correlate extreme wave heights and extreme water levels in coastal waters using numerical models together with joint probability analysis has been proposed. A third-generation wave model for wave simulation and a three-dimensional flow model for water level simulation are coupled through the surface atmospheric boundary layer. The model has been calibrated and validated against wind, wave and water level data collected in the coastal waters of Hong Kong. The annual maximum wave height and the concomitant water level have been obtained by simulating the annual extreme typhoon event for 50 consecutive years. The results from bivariate extreme value analysis of the simulated data show that the commonly used empirical method may lead to underestimation of the design water level. 相似文献
6.
基于广西涠洲岛海洋监测站3个方向的年极值波高观测资料,在假设其服从Weibull分布的基础上,运用最小二乘法,矩估计法和最速下降法对Weibull分布的参数进行估计,同时引入粒子群算法确定Weibull分布的3个参数,对文中4种方法得出的拟合结果及运算效率进行比较分析,说明了粒子群算法在估计极值分布参数中的优势. 相似文献
7.
The demand for high-speed craft (mainly catamarans) used as passenger vessel has increased significantly in the recent years. Looking towards the future and trying to respond to the increasing requirement, high-speed crafts international market is passing through deep changes. Different types of high-speed crafts are being used for passenger transport. However, catamarans and monohulls have been the main choice not only for passenger vessel but also as ferryboat.Generally speaking, the efficient hydrodynamic hull shapes, engine improvements, and lighter hull structures using aluminum and composite materials make possible the increase in cruising speed.The high demand for catamarans are due to its proven performance in calm waters, large deck area compared to monohull crafts and higher speed efficiency using less power. Although the advantages aforementioned, the performance of catamaran vessels in wave conditions still needs to be improved.The high-speed crafts (HSC) market is demanding different HSC designs and a wide range of dimensions focusing on lower resistance and power for higher speed. Therefore, the hull resistance optimization is a key element for a high-speed hull success.In addition to that, trade-off high-speed catamaran (HSCat) design has been improved to achieve main characteristics and hull geometry. This paper presents a contribution to HSCat preliminary design phase. The HSCat preliminary design problem is raised and one solution is attained by multiple criteria optimization technique.The mathematical model was developed considering: hull arrangement (area and volume), lightweight material application (aluminum hull), hull resistance evaluation (using a slender body theory), as well as wave interference effect between hulls, calculated with 3D theory application. Goal programming optimization system was applied to solve the HSCat preliminary design.Finally this paper includes an illustrative example showing the mathematical model and the optimization solution. An HSCat passenger inland transport in Amazon area preliminary design was used as case study. The problem is presented, the main constrains analyzed and the optimum solution shown. Trade off graphs was also included to highlight the mathematical model convergence process. 相似文献
8.
波浪与外壁透空双方形沉箱相互作用 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
在线性波浪理论下,利用复合边界元素法(composite BEM)数值解析在等水深、规则波浪入射二种外壁透空双方形沉箱的无因次波力及Kd绕射分布图,并分别与其他研究者所作双圆筒内、外圆柱无因次波力及绕射分布图的计算结果进行比较,都说明本模式的合理性和可行性。在考虑不同透水参数下,分别计算波浪作用在内、外结构物的波力及沉箱四周绕射系数大小分布图。计算结果显示:波浪作用于外壁透空全透水双方形沉箱,外方柱无因次最大波力值会随着透水参数增加而降低;内方柱无因次最大波力值则随着透水参数增加而增加。本研究结果可供设计外海透水方形沉箱结构交互作用参考。 相似文献
9.
海洋平台结构动力响应优化设计与灵敏度分析 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
研究了海洋平台结构动力响应优化设计以结构动力响应的灵敏度计算方法。给出了结构稳态频率响应和瞬态时程响应的灵敏度分析算法，并通过数值试验讨论了瞬态响应灵敏度分析算法的精度和差分法中变量摄动量的影响。在JIFEX软件中实现了结构动力响应灵敏度计算，建立海洋平台结构优化模型和求解方法。数值算例表明了本文方法和程序的有效性。 相似文献
10.
Traditional wave steepness s=H/L does not define steep asymmetric waves in a random sea uniquey. Three additional parameters characterising single zero-downcross waves in a time series are crest front steepness, vertical asymmetry factor and horizontal asymmetry factor. Results for steepness and asymmetry from zero-downcross analysis of wave data obtained from full scale measurements in deep water on the Norwegian continental shelf in 58 time series are presented. The analysis demonstrates clearly the asymmetry of both “extreme waves” and the highest waves. The period and height of the highest waves are also given together with their correlation to spectral parameters. The measured maximum wave heights are also compared with predicted values of maximum wave heights showing good agreement. 相似文献
11.
We propose a method for the solution of the inverse problem of reconstruction of the vertical stratification of density in the ocean according to the known dispersion curves for internal gravity waves. For the stratification of density modeled by a linear distribution, we determine the accuracy of its reconstruction for values of the frequency of oscillations and wave numbers given with different degrees of accuracy. The posed problem is studied in the Boussinesq approximation for two traditionally used types of boundary conditions on the surface of the fluid. We deduce dispersion equations and focus our attention on their asymptotic analysis. An asymptotic solution of the inverse problem is constructed and its sensitivity to the degree of accuracy of the input data is investigated. 相似文献
12.
Bayesian statistics offer a novel means of estimating return values of wave heights and hence of establishing design criteria for offshore structures. The Bayesian method has significant advantages over the classical method since it enables all types of uncertainty (physical, parameter, distribution) associated with the design wave prediction to be handled in a consistent manner in the same analysis.The basic principles of the Bayesian method for drawing inferences are outlined step-by-step. It is shown how Bayesian estimators of return values for wave heights are established by taking an expectation over all parameters and contending distributions. When the Bayesian procedure is applied to large data sets, such as wave data sets, computational difficulties could be encountered, making a “remedial” procedure necessary. However, the Bayesian procedure has been used successfully with wave data sets from the northern North Sea. Furthermore, the associated remedial procedure is such that the program can be made suitable for many existing computers, e.g. desk computers. 相似文献
13.
推算波浪多年一遇波高的新方法 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
采用卫星遥感推算多年一遇波高的新方法，对中国近海多年一遇波高进行推算研究。运用卫星遥感散射计得到的风资料推算了整个渤海区域波浪多年一遇的波高分布。通过与有实测资料4个点推算的结果比较表明：卫星资料和实测计算的误差随着重现期的增大而减小，最大误差百年和50年一遇波高为20cm；而百年和50年一遇波高正是工程中最为关心的，说明运用卫星遥感散射计风资料推算渤海多年一遇波高可行且结果合理。本研究方法为进一步运用和完善卫星遥感资料推算中国近海多年一波高场提供了一条新途径。 相似文献
14.
设计波高推算的一种新模型 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
考虑台风影响海域的设计波高,结合复合极值理论和最大熵原则,构造了1种新型的具有4个待定参量和1个台风频次参量的poisson-最大熵分布函数模型,并推导出求解参数的方程组,参数的数值解可通过年极值实测数据的期望、方差、偏度和峰度得到.以黄海某观测站26 a极值波高的实测数据为例计算了新模型中4个待定参量和多年一遇设计波高,并与传统常用计算方法得到的结果进行比较.比较表明,新模型相比传统方法具有一定的优势. 相似文献
15.
Ｍａｘｉｍｕｍｅｎｔｒｏｐｙｐｒｉｎｃｉｐｌｅａｎｄｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｏｃｅａｎｗａｖｅｈｅｉｇｈｔｓ￥ＷｕＫｅｊｉａｎａｎｄＳｕｎＦｕ（ＲｅｃｅｉｖｅｄＭａｙ１５，１９９５；ａｃｃｅｐｔｅｄＪｕｎｅ２１，１９９５）Ａ... 相似文献
16.
Dong Guohai Li Yucheng Wang Yongxue
Lecturer Doctor Dalian University of Technology Dalian
Professor Dalian University of Technology Dalian 《中国海洋工程》1995,(1)
- A large amount of experimental analysis and systematical theoretical calculation has been done by the authors to solve the problem of wave transformation and breaking, considering the effect of both current and topography, but only the wave energy loss due to spilling breaker in the surf zone has been discussed in this paper. Based on test result analysis and calculation with the Stream Function Wave Theory, the wave velocity field at breaking points has been obtained, and it is used to calculate the wave heights after breaking by the VOF (Volume of Fluid) method, in which the governing equations are continuity equation and Navier-Stokes Equation for imcompressible fluids. In the present paper, the improved VOF technique is used to calculate the wave heights of stable regular waves after breaking. Results fit the test data well, which shows that the VOF method is suitable to numerical simulation of regular waves after breaking. Besides, the breaker coefficient B of regular waves in the bore model is a 相似文献
17.
基于广义极值分布的设计波高推算 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
简介了广义极值分布函数及其3种参数估计方法,包括极大似然(ML)、线性矩(LM)和间隔最大积(MPS)估计的计算方法。使用广义极值分布函数推算了北部湾涠洲岛海域3个波向的年波高极值序列设计波高,并与Weibull分布、Gumbel分布和皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布的推算结果加以对比。分析表明,涠洲岛海域极值波高服从于广义极值Ⅲ型分布,拟合优度检验结果表明广义极值分布能更好地拟合极值波高;MPS方法是一种优良的参数估计法,推算的设计波高可作为海岸环境工程设计的首要参考值。 相似文献
18.
The morphology and mobility of bedforms within a sand wave field having a water depth of 30 to 40 m have been studied by side-scan sonar surveys at different tidal stages and under various wave climates. Large sand waves with heights of 4 to 7 m retained their orientation throughout the survey period, Small sand waves with heights less than 2 to 3 m changed their height over a tidal cycle and their location (relative to larger sand waves) between surveys. The maximum change appeared to be related to ebb current acceleration. Megaripple wavelengths were reduced under surface wave action. 相似文献
19.
The paper deals with the reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) of a riser support installed on a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) unit under operation, extreme, damaged, and one line failure cases and installation loading conditions. The optimization problem is formulated such that probabilistic thickness variables described with random characteristics are determined by minimizing the weight of the riser support structure subjected to stress constraints for the given target reliability. The initial design model is generated based on actual FPSO riser support specifications. The finite element analysis is conducted using NASTRAN, and the probabilistic optimal solutions are obtained via the moving least squares method in the context of RBDO using a response surface meta-model. For the meta-modeling of the inequality constraint functions of stresses, a constraint-feasible moving least squares method (CF-MLSM) is adopted in the present study. The CF-MLSM has been shown to ensure constraint feasibility regardless of the nonlinearity of the constraint function, the feasible bounds, and the random characteristics during the meta-model-based RBDO process. The solution results from the proposed RBDO strategy present improved design performances under various riser operating conditions. 相似文献
20.
为了研究欧洲北海海域的波高全区域概率分布情况,从而为海洋平台等海洋浮式结构物的选址和结构设计提供依据。首先基于Global Waves Statistics(GWS)提供的实测数据,确定典型计算工况的发生概率;同时考虑实测数据中极端波浪环境下的数据缺失导致大波高分布概率偏小的问题,利用三参数Weibull分布确定不同重现期下的极值风速,作为典型计算工况的补充。以不同风速、风向的定常风场为输入项,利用第三代海浪数值模型SWAN模型,对北海全区域波高进行数值模拟。将数值模拟的稳态形式依照各工况的发生概率进行归一化累加处理,认为其结果可以表征全区域的波高概率分布情况。以波高概率分布的计算结果为依据,分析北海海域波浪环境的统计学特征,发现有效波高为7 m以上的大波高频发区在北海北部区域有大范围分布;有效波高4～5 m为北海东北区域的多发海况,极端海况下的有效波高主要分布于7～14 m区间,在地形突变区域的波高发生显著变化。 相似文献