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1.
We propose a method for the construction of dynamic-stochastic models of natural systems based on the assimilation of the data of observations in the prognostic equations of coupled processes. In these models, the method of adaptive balance of causes is used to deduce evolutionary equations of the analyzed processes and assimilate the data of observations in these equations. The deduced general equations are considered for an example of a marine ecosystem characterized by the development of four coupled processes. It is shown that the optimal prediction of these processes requires the solution of 11 systems of equations with simultaneous adaptation of prognostic estimates and the coefficients of the models to the data of observations. A numerical simulation experiment explaining the algorithm of the proposed method of modeling is considered. A conclusion is made that the application of this method in the geoinformation systems of monitoring of the environment is quite promising.__________Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 31–42, November–December, 2004. 相似文献
2.
The problem of estimation of the future values of processes is studied as a problem of their adaptation to the known data of observations in the past. The method of adaptive balance of causes (ABC-method) is used for the construction of a dynamic model of the coefficients of influence. This model enables one to compute the current values of these coefficients according to the current correlation matrix determined as a result of reanalysis of the observed processes. We propose an ABC-model with variable coefficients of influence guaranteeing the optimal (from the viewpoint of accuracy) prediction of natural processes and present an example of its application.Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 5, pp. 53–63, September–October, 2004.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to cover date. 相似文献
3.
The accurate prediction of non-linear sea states represents a great challenge, with a number of applications in oceanography, marine engineering, security of people and marine transportation, etc. In this paper, we report on the development of two efficient deterministic prediction models for 2D irregular wave-fields. These models are based on the exploitation of wave elevation time series given by one or more probes and on the use of two different numerical models for the wave-fields simulation. Two effective data assimilation processes are developed to improve the wave-field estimates obtained from the study of one or several probe signals, so that we obtain proper initial conditions for the forecast. The assimilation schemes have been validated on the reconstruction of model-generated observations and accurate predictions of the corresponding synthetic wave-fields evolution have been obtained. 相似文献
4.
A series of test simulations are performed to evaluate the impact of satellite-derived meteorological data on numerical typhoon track prediction. Geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS-5) and NOAA‘ s TIROS operational vertical sounder (TOVS) observations are used in the experiments. A three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation scheme is developed to assimilate the satellite data directly into the Penn State-NCAR nonhydrostatic meteorological model (MM5). Three-dimensional objective analysis fields based on the T213 results and conventional observations are employed as the background fields of the initialization. The comparisons of the simulated typhoon tracks are carried out, which correspond respectively to assimilate different kinds of satellite data. It is found that, compared with the experiment without satellite data assimilation, the 3D-Var assimilation schemes lead to significant improvements on typhoon track prediction. Track errors reduce from approximately 25% at 24 h to approximately 30% at 48 h for 3D-Var assimilation experiments. 相似文献
5.
A series of test simulations are performed to evaluate the impact of satellite-derived meteorological data on numerical typhoon track prediction. Geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS-5) and NOAA‘s TIROS operational vertical sounder (TOVS) observations are used in the experiments. A twodimensional variation assimilation scheme is developed to assimilate the satellite data directly into the Penn State-NCAR nonhydrostatic meteorological model (MM5). Three-dimensional objective analyses fields based on T213 results and routine observations are employed as the background fields of the initialization. The comparisons of the simulated typhoon tracks are also carried out, which correspond respectively to the initialization scheme with two-dimensional variation (2D- Var), three-dimensional observational nudging and direct assimilation of satellite data. It is found that, comparing with the experiments without satellite data assimilation, the first two assimilation schemes lead to significant improvements on typhoon track prediction. Track errors reduce by 18% at 12 h for 2D- Var and from about 16% at 24 h to about 35% at 48 h for observational nudging. The simulated results based on assimilating different kinds of satellite data are also compared. 相似文献
6.
S. G. Demyshev 《Physical Oceanography》2010,20(3):184-195
Within the framework of the Mellor–Yamada approach, we realize a numerical scheme for the calculation of the coefficients
of turbulent viscosity and diffusion in the z -system of coordinates for the three-dimensional model of operative prediction of currents in the Black Sea. Some discrete
analogs of the equations for turbulent kinetic energy and turbulence macroscale are studied. Their high sensitivity to the
choice of finite-difference approximations is demonstrated. On the basis of the comparison of the results of prognostic experiments
with the data of observations, we choose the best approximation of the term used to describe the generation pf turbulence
energy. 相似文献
7.
A comparison between 3DVAR and EnOI techniques for satellite altimetry data assimilation 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Two conceptually different assimilation schemes, three dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation and Ensemble Optimum Interpolation (EnOI) are compared in the context of satellite altimetric data assimilation. Similarities and differences of the two schemes are briefly discussed and their impacts on the model simulation are investigated.With a tropical Pacific ocean model, two assimilation experiments of sea level anomaly (SLA) data from TOPEX/Poseidon are performed for 5 years from 1997 to 2001. Annual mean states of temperature and salinity fields are compared with analysis data and some independent observations. It is found that EnOI generally produces moderate improvements on both temperature and salinity fields, while changes induced by 3DVAR assimilation are strong and vary remarkably in different areas. For instance, 3DVAR tends to excessively modify the temperature field along the thermocline depth and even deteriorate the simulation, but it is more effective than EnOI below the thermocline depth. However, for the salinity field 3DVAR outperforms EnOI nearly for almost the whole layer. As the difference relative to the WOA01 analysis is compared, it is apparently reduced to below 0.3 psu in most areas in the 3DVAR experiment. On the other hand, the pattern of difference in the EnOI experiment resembles that of the simulation and the magnitude is only diminished to some extent. One advantage of EnOI is that it yields more consistent improvements even in areas where there are large model errors. It is more reliable than 3DVAR in such a sense. It is also revealed that the T–S relation plays a very important role in altimetric data assimilation. Further, the distinct performance of the two schemes can be partly accounted for by their inherent assumptions and settings. 相似文献
8.
A regional ocean circulation model with four-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme is configured to study the ocean state of the Indian Ocean region (65°E–95°E; 5°N–20°N) covering the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB). The state estimation setup uses 10 km horizontal resolution and 5 m vertical resolution in the upper ocean. The in-situ temperature and salinity, satellite-derived observations of sea surface height, and blended (in-situ and satellite-derived) observations of sea surface temperature alongwith their associated uncertainties are used for data assimilation with the regionally configured ocean model. The ocean state estimation is carried out for 61 days (1 June to 31 July 2013). The assimilated fields are closer to observations compared to other global state estimates. The mixed layer depth (MLD) of the region shows deepening during the period of assimilation with AS showing higher MLD compared to the BoB. An empirical forecast equation is derived for the prediction of MLD using the air–sea forcing variables as predictors. The surface and sub-surface (50 m) heat and salt budget tendencies of the region are also investigated. It is found that at the sub-surface, only the advection and diffusion temperature and salt tendencies are important. 相似文献
9.
I. E. Timchenko V. A. Zhorov E. M. Igumnova I. P. Lazarchuk 《Physical Oceanography》2007,17(4):223-241
For the ecosystem of the northwest shelf of the Black Sea studied as an example, we construct a dynamic model of the integrated
processes of development of phyto-and zooplankton, larvae, and fish and the variations of the concentrations of biogenic elements
and detritus. The data of many-year observations over these processes are generalized and the scheme of genetic relations
between these processes is proposed. By the method of adaptive balance of causes, we establish the dynamic model equations
of the ecosystem. It is proposed to use the method of analytic hierarchy process for the estimation of the coefficients of
the model with regard for the degree of influence of external and internal factors on the dynamics of the ecosystem. Some
examples of analysis of various scenarios of the development of integrated processes running in the ecosystem are presented
and their comparison with the data of many-year observations in this region is performed.
__________
Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 48–69, July–August, 2007. 相似文献
10.
利用热带太平洋TAO浮标阵列评估全球高分辨率浪-潮-流耦合模式同化结果 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
In order to evaluate the assimilation results from a global high resolution ocean model, the buoy observations from tropical atmosphere ocean(TAO) during August 2014 to July 2015 are employed. The horizontal resolution of wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model developed by The First Institute of Oceanography(FIOCOM model) is 0.1°×0.1°, and ensemble adjustment Kalman filter is used to assimilate the sea surface temperature(SST), sea level anomaly(SLA) and Argo temperature/salinity profiles. The simulation results with and without data assimilation are examined. First, the overall statistic errors of model results are analyzed. The scatter diagrams of model simulations versus observations and corresponding error probability density distribution show that the errors of all the observed variables, including the temperature, isotherm depth of 20°C(D20), salinity and two horizontal component of velocity are reduced to some extent with a maximum improvement of 54% after assimilation. Second, time-averaged variables are used to investigate the horizontal and vertical structures of the model results. Owing to the data assimilation, the biases of the time-averaged distribution are reduced more than70% for the temperature and D20 especially in the eastern Pacific. The obvious improvement of D20 which represents the upper mixed layer depth indicates that the structure of the temperature after the data assimilation becomes more close to the reality and the vertical structure of the upper ocean becomes more reasonable. At last,the physical processes of time series are compared with observations. The time evolution processes of all variables after the data assimilation are more consistent with the observations. The temperature bias and RMSE of D20 are reduced by 76% and 56% respectively with the data assimilation. More events during this period are also reproduced after the data assimilation. Under the condition of strong 2014/2016 El Ni?o, the Equatorial Undercurrent(EUC) from the TAO is gradually increased during August to November in 2014, and followed by a decreasing process. Since the improvement of the structure in the upper ocean, these events of the EUC can be clearly found in the assimilation results. In conclusion, the data assimilation in this global high resolution model has successfully reduced the model biases and improved the structures of the upper ocean, and the physical processes in reality can be well produced. 相似文献
11.
Raleigh R. Hood Kevin E. Kohler Julian P. McCreary Sharon L. Smith 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2003,50(22-26):2917
In this paper, we use a coupled biological/physical model to synthesize and understand observations taken during the US JGOFS Arabian Sea Process Study (ASPS). Its physical component is a variable-density,
-layer model; its biological component consists of a set of advective–diffusive equations in each layer that determine nitrogen concentrations in four compartments, namely, nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus. Solutions are compared to time series and cruise sections from the ASPS data set, including observations of mixed-layer thickness, chlorophyll concentrations, inorganic nitrogen concentrations, particulate nitrogen export flux, zooplankton biomass, and primary production. Through these comparisons, we adjust model parameters to obtain a “best-fit” main-run solution, identify key biological and physical processes, and assess model strengths and weaknesses.Substantial improvements in the model/data comparison are obtained by: (1) adjusting the turbulence-production coefficients in the mixed-layer model to thin the mixed layer; (2) increasing the detrital sinking and remineralization rates to improve the timing and amplitude of the model's export flux; and (3) introducing a parameterization of particle aggregation to lower phytoplankton concentrations in coastal upwelling regions.With these adjustments, the model captures many key aspects of the observed physical and biogeochemical variability in offshore waters, including the near-surface DIN and phytoplankton P concentrations, mesozooplankton biomass, and primary production. Nevertheless, there are still significant model/data discrepancies of P for most of the cruises. Most of them can be attributed to forcing or process errors in the physical model: inaccurate mixed-layer thicknesses, lack of mesoscale eddies and filaments, and differences in the timing and spatial extent of coastal upwelling. Relatively few are clearly related to the simplicity of the biological model, the model's overestimation of coastal P being the most obvious example. Overall, we conclude that future efforts to improve biogeochemical models of the Arabian Sea should focus on improving their physical component, ensuring that it represents the ocean's physical state as closely as possible. We believe that this conclusion applies to coupled biogeochemical modeling efforts in other regions as well. 相似文献
12.
A procedure for the four-dimensional (4D) analysis of the hydrophysical fields in the Black Sea with an assimilation of the temperature and salinity (T, S) data was realized on the basis of a numerical model which involves the primitive equations of motion, and the heat and salt advection equations. Two experiments were carried out which differed by the observation data assimilation procedure. Analysis has shown that the observation data assimilation procedure realized using the energy-balanced model allows the reproduction of some synoptic features of the circulation in the Black Sea. A comparison of two computations demonstrates the efficiency of assimilating the measurement data on the basis of the 4D analysis as compared with the sequential objective analysis.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov. 相似文献
13.
V. V. Knysh R. A. Ibrayev G. K. Korotaev N. V. Inyushina 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2008,44(2):236-249
We present the results of an analysis of the seasonal variability of current fields in the Caspian Sea, reconstructed by assimilation of climatic temperature and salinity into the primitive-equation model of water circulation on the basis of an algorithm for adaptive statistics of prediction errors. The sources in heat and salt transfer-diffusion equations depend on the spatial and temporal variability of the variances of prediction errors and one-dimensional (in the vertical coordinate) variances of measurement errors for temperature and salinity. The variances of prediction errors are adjusted at the moments of data assimilation in accordance with a simplified Kalman filter. The climatic circulation of waters in the Caspian Sea is shown to be highly varying. The maximum of its intensity over the entire depth is reached in February. The minimum of kinetic energy is observed in April. The currents in deep-sea areas are determined by the balance between wind and baroclinic factors of the formation of circulation with wind currents prevalent. 相似文献
14.
15.
《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2003,57(5-6):873-885
In the present work we explore the impact of assimilating local tide-gauge and altimetric data on the quality of predicting the major Adriatic tides (M2 and K1). To that end we compute optimal tidal open boundary conditions for a 3D high-resolution finite-element model by using an incremental assimilation formalism. The essence of the method is the use of two dynamical models where the solution in the complex 3D high-resolution model is sought via assimilation of prediction errors into the simpler 2D model with explicit inverse. In the central numerical experiment, harmonic constants from 12 tide gauges are assimilated and the results are analysed at 31 locations, hence 19 independent ones. The data assimilation contributes to the reduction of maximum amplitude error from 5.6 to 0.5 cm for M2 and from 3.9 to 0.1 cm for K1. The assimilation procedure is repeated by assimilating suitably processed Topex/Poseidon altimeter data, again validating the outcome at 31 tide gauge locations. The result was very similar to the gauge-data assimilation outcome. The model output is also validated with the current data, not used in the assimilation. At two locations and at three depths the model was able to reproduce the major and the minor semi-axes of tidal ellipses, as well as their orientations very well. 相似文献
16.
背景误差相关结构的确定是影响海浪同化效果的关键因素之一。集合Kalman滤波是一种较为成熟的同化方法,其可以对背景误差进行实时更新和动态估计,现已广泛应用于海洋和大气领域的研究。本文基于MASNUM-WAM海浪模式,分别采用静态样本集合Kalman滤波和EAKF方法,针对2014年全球海域开展海浪数据同化实验,同化资料为Jason-2卫星高度计数据,利用Saral卫星高度计资料对同化实验结果进行检验。结果表明,两组同化方案均有效提高了海浪模式的模拟水平,EAKF方案在风场变化较大的西风带区域表现显著优于静态样本集合Kalman滤波方案,但总体上两者相差不大。综合考虑计算成本和同化效果,静态样本集合Kalman滤波方案更适用于海浪业务化预报。 相似文献
17.
Suchandra Aich Bhowmick Ruchi Modi K. G. Sandhya M. Seemanth T. M. Balakrishnan Nair Raj Kumar 《Marine Geodesy》2015,38(3):396-408
The current study aims to analyze the wind and wave parameters over Indian Ocean region obtained from first Ka –band altimeter AltiKa onboard SARAL, a collaborative mission of Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) and Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), France. It also demonstrates a real time application of SARAL data by assimilating the wave height in a wave model operational at the Space Applications Centre, ISRO. State-of–the art coastal wave model Simulating Wave Near shore (SWAN) is used for this purpose. The well-tested optimal interpolation technique is adopted for assimilation. Before proceeding to the assimilation per se, SARAL/AltiKa Wind and Significant Wave Height (SWH) have been validated using in- situ observations and WAVEWATCH III model. Apart from assessment of wind and wave data quality, this also served the purpose of providing error covariance to be used in assimilation. Supremacy of the assimilation run over parallel control run without assimilation has been judged by comparing the results with buoy observations at Indian National Centre for Ocean Information System (INCOIS). The statistics of validation of the assimilation run has been found to be extremely encouraging and interesting. 相似文献
18.
We realize the algorithm of adaptive statistics of forecasting errors for the assimilation of the climatic fields of temperature
and salinity in the σ-coordinate model of the dynamics of the Black Sea. The principal relations of this algorithm and its
simplified version based on the Kalman filter are presented. The distinctive features of realization of the algorithm specified
by the model are discussed. We also present the results of comparison of the hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea reconstructed
according to the algorithm of adaptive statistics and a simplified scheme of assimilation of the climatic data. It is shown
that the dependence of sources in the transport equations (heat and salt diffusion) on the four-dimensional variances of forecasting
errors and threedimensional measurement errors enables one to reconstruct the mutually adapted climatic parameters of the
sea more exactly. 相似文献
19.
Ocean prediction systems rely on an array of assumptions to optimize their data assimilation schemes. Many of these remain untested, especially at smaller scales, because sufficiently dense observations are very rare. A set of 295 drifters deployed in July 2012 in the north-eastern Gulf of Mexico provides a unique opportunity to test these systems down to scales previously unobtainable. In this study, background error covariance assumptions in the 3DVar assimilation process are perturbed to understand the effect on the solution relative to the withheld dense drifter data. Results show that the amplitude of the background error covariance is an important factor as expected, and a proposed new formulation provides added skill. In addition, the background error covariance time correlation is important to allow satellite observations to affect the results over a period longer than one daily assimilation cycle. The results show the new background error covariance formulations provide more accurate placement of frontal positions, directions of currents and velocity magnitudes. These conclusions have implications for the implementation of 3DVar systems as well as the analysis interval of 4DVar systems. 相似文献
20.
An Ecosystem Model Including Nitrogen Isotopes: Perspectives on a Study of the Marine Nitrogen Cycle
We have developed an ecosystem model including two nitrogen isotopes (14N and 15N), and validated this model using an actual data set. A study of nitrogen isotopic ratios (δ15N) using a marine ecosystem model is thought to be most helpful in quantitatively understanding the marine nitrogen cycle.
Moreover, the model study may indicate a new potential of δ15N as a tracer. This model has six compartments: phytoplankton, zooplankton, particulate organic nitrogen, dissolved organic
nitrogen, nitrate and ammonium in a two-box model, and has biological processes with/without isotopic fractionation. We have
applied this model to the Sea of Okhotsk and successfully reproduced the δ15N of nitrate measured in seawater and the seasonal variations in δ15N of sinking particles obtained from sediment trap experiments. Simulated δ15N of phytoplankton are determined by δ 15N of nitrate and ammonium, and the nitrogen f-ratio, defined as the ratio of nitrate assimilation by phytoplankton to total nitrogenous nutrient assimilation. Detailed
considerations of biological processes in the spring and autumn blooms have demonstrated that there is a significant difference
between simulated δ15N values of phytoplankton, which assimilates only nitrate, and only ammonium, respectively. We suggest that observations of
δ 15N values of phytoplankton, nitrate and ammonium in the spring and autumn blooms may indicate the ratios of nutrient selectivity
by phytoplankton. In winter, most of the simulated biogeochemical fluxes decrease rapidly, but nitrification flux decreases
much more slowly than the other biogeochemical fluxes. Therefore, simulated δ15N values and concentrations of ammonium reflect almost only nitrification. We suggest that the nitrification rate can be parameterized
with observations of δ15N of ammonium in winter and a sensitive study varying the parameter of nitrification rate. 相似文献