共查询到10条相似文献，搜索用时 312 毫秒
1.
Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights. 相似文献
2.
Based on the wave breaking model by Li and Wang (1999), this work is to apply Dally‘ s analytical solution to the wave-height decay instead of the empirical and semi-empirical hypotheses of wave-height distribution within the wave breaking zone. This enhances the applicability of the model. Computational results of shoaling, location of wave breaking, wave-height decay after wave breaking, set-down and set-up for incident regular waves are shown to have good agreement with experimental and field data. 相似文献
3.
Bayesian statistics offer a novel means of estimating return values of wave heights and hence of establishing design criteria for offshore structures. The Bayesian method has significant advantages over the classical method since it enables all types of uncertainty (physical, parameter, distribution) associated with the design wave prediction to be handled in a consistent manner in the same analysis.The basic principles of the Bayesian method for drawing inferences are outlined step-by-step. It is shown how Bayesian estimators of return values for wave heights are established by taking an expectation over all parameters and contending distributions. When the Bayesian procedure is applied to large data sets, such as wave data sets, computational difficulties could be encountered, making a “remedial” procedure necessary. However, the Bayesian procedure has been used successfully with wave data sets from the northern North Sea. Furthermore, the associated remedial procedure is such that the program can be made suitable for many existing computers, e.g. desk computers. 相似文献
4.
A.J.H.M. Reniers M.J. Groenewegen K.C. Ewans S. Masterton G.S. Stelling J. Meek 《Coastal Engineering》2010
The accuracy of nearshore infragravity wave height model predictions has been investigated using a combination of the spectral short wave evolution model SWAN and a linear 1D SurfBeat model (IDSB). Data recorded by a wave rider located approximately 3.5 km from the coast at 18 m water depth have been used to construct the short wave frequency-directional spectra that are subsequently translated to approximately 8 m water depth with the third generation short wave model SWAN. Next the SWAN-computed frequency-directional spectra are used as input for IDSB to compute the infragravity response in the 0.01 Hz–0.05 Hz frequency range, generated by the transformation of the grouped short waves through the surf zone including bound long waves, leaky waves and edge waves at this depth. Comparison of the computed and measured infragravity waves in 8 m water depth shows an average skill of approximately 80%. Using data from a directional buoy located approximately 70 km offshore as input for the SWAN model results in an average infragravity prediction skill of 47%. This difference in skill is in a large part related to the under prediction of the short wave directional spreading by SWAN. Accounting for the spreading mismatch increases the skill to 70%. Directional analyses of the infragravity waves shows that outgoing infragravity wave heights at 8 m depth are generally over predicted during storm conditions suggesting that dissipation mechanisms in addition to bottom friction such as non-linear energy transfer and long wave breaking may be important. Provided that the infragravity wave reflection at the beach is close to unity and tidal water level modulations are modest, a relatively small computational effort allows for the generation of long-term infragravity data sets at intermediate water depths. These data can subsequently be analyzed to establish infragravity wave height design criteria for engineering facilities exposed to the open ocean, such as nearshore tanker offloading terminals at coastal locations. 相似文献
5.
Forecasting of wave parameters is necessary for many marine and coastal operations. Different forecasting methodologies have been developed using the wind and wave characteristics. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) as a robust data learning method is used to forecast the wave height for the next 3, 6, 12 and 24 h in the Persian Gulf. To determine the effective parameters, different models with various combinations of input parameters were considered. Parameters such as wind speed, direction and wave height of the previous 3 h, were found to be the best inputs. Furthermore, using the difference between wave and wind directions showed better performance. The results also indicated that if only the wind parameters are used as model inputs the accuracy of the forecasting increases as the time horizon increases up to 6 h. This can be due to the lower influence of previous wave heights on larger lead time forecasting and the existing lag between the wind and wave growth. It was also found that in short lead times, the forecasted wave heights primarily depend on the previous wave heights, while in larger lead times there is a greater dependence on previous wind speeds. 相似文献
6.
SWAN model predictions, initialized with directional wave buoy observations in 550-m water depth offshore of a steep, submarine canyon, are compared with wave observations in 5.0-, 2.5-, and 1.0-m water depths. Although the model assumptions include small bottom slopes, the alongshore variations of the nearshore wave field caused by refraction over the steep canyon are predicted well over the 50 days of observations. For example, in 2.5-m water depth, the observed and predicted wave heights vary by up to a factor of 4 over about 1000 m alongshore, and wave directions vary by up to about 10°, sometimes changing from south to north of shore normal. Root-mean-square errors of the predicted wave heights, mean directions, periods, and radiation stresses (less than 0.13 m, 5°, 1 s, and 0.05 m3/s2 respectively) are similar near and far from the canyon. Squared correlations between the observed and predicted wave heights usually are greater than 0.8 in all water depths. However, the correlations for mean directions and radiation stresses decrease with decreasing water depth as waves refract and become normally incident. Although mean wave properties observed in shallow water are predicted accurately, nonlinear energy transfers from near-resonant triads are not modeled well, and the observed and predicted wave energy spectra can differ significantly at frequencies greater than the spectral peak, especially for narrow-band swell. 相似文献
7.
Several levels of increasing complexity of transferring wave information from offshore to nearshore have been studied to quantify their influence on extreme beach erosion estimates. Beach profiles which have been monitored since 1976 were used to estimate extreme beach erosion and compared to predictions. Examination of the wave propagation assumptions revolves around two types of offshore to nearshore transfer: excluding or including wave breaking and bottom friction. A second complication is whether still water level variations (ocean tide plus storm surge) are included.The inclusion of various combinations of wave propagation processes other than shoaling and refraction in the wave transfer function changes on the extreme erosion distribution tail through lowering estimates above one year return period. This brings the predicted tails closer to the observations, but does not capture the upper limit of storm demand implied by the extensive beach profile data set. Including wave breaking has a marked effect on probabilistic estimates of beach erosion. The inclusion of bottom friction is less significant. The inclusion of still water level variability in the wave transfer calculation had minimal impact on results for the case study site, where waves were transferred from offshore to water at 20 m depth. These changes were put into perspective by comparing them to changes resulting from limiting beach erosion by adjusting the statistical distributions of peak wave height and storm duration to have maximum limits. We conclude that the proposed improvements on wave transformation methods are as significant as limiting wave erosion potential and worth including. 相似文献
8.
The most common parameters and functions used to characterize wave groups in linear seas are reviewed and interrelated in a unified manner. A three-axes representation of run lengths is used to characterize wave groups using exponential and Markov chain approximations. A relationship between four parameters (Qp, Qe, κ2, and ρ2) and the correlation coefficient between consecutive wave heights [rHH(1)] is demonstrated. The wave-height function method is reviewed in some detail in order to relate the run length theory with envelope theories. The theoretical estimates used to demonstrate the relationships between the various parameters must be considered as only first-order trends to parameter estimates computed from real wave data due to the statistical variability in these estimates when computed from real wave data. 相似文献
9.
Nearshore shoaling and breaking waves can drive a complex circulation system of wave-induced currents. In the cross-shore direction, the local vertical imbalance between the gradient of radiation stress and that of pressure due to the setup drives an offshore flow near the bottom, called ‘undertow’, which plays a significant role in the beach profile evolution and the structure stability in coastal regions. A 1DV undertow model was developed based on the relationship between the turbulent shear stress and t... 相似文献
10.
This paper demonstrates a practical step-wise method for modelling wave energy at the landscape scale using GIS and remote sensing techniques at Alphonse Atoll, Seychelles. Inputs are a map of the benthic surface (seabed) cover, a detailed bathymetric model derived from remotely sensed Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) data and information on regional wave heights. Incident energy at the reef crest around the atoll perimeter is calculated as a function of its deepwater value with wave parameters (significant wave height and period) hindcast in the offshore zone using the WaveWatch III application developed by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Energy modifications are calculated at constant intervals as waves transform over the forereef platform along a series of reef profile transects running into the atoll centre. Factors for shoaling, refraction and frictional attenuation are calculated at each interval for given changes in bathymetry and benthic coverage type and a nominal reduction in absolute energy is incorporated at the reef crest to account for wave breaking. Overall energy estimates are derived for a period of 5 years and related to spatial patterning of reef flat surface cover (sand and seagrass patches). 相似文献