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浙江海面变化的灰色模型分析与预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
应用灰色模型理论，分析了各影响海面变化因素的影响力度，指出影响浙江海面趋势性变化的主要因素是气温；建立了海面变化的灰色气温模型，其计算值与实测值吻合良好，可根据气温变化趋势预测未来海面变化趋势。若未来百年全球气温再上升１．５－５．５℃，浙江海面将对应上升２４－７８ｃｍ。灰色模型模拟还显示，未来平均高潮位于上升速率明显大于平均低潮位上升速率，潮差将逐渐增大，在相同平均海面升幅的情况下，未来海面上升对 相似文献
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苏北辐射沙洲是分布于江苏岸外的典型沉积堆积体,受长江、黄河泥沙供给和近岸潮流动力的共同影响,发育了典型的粉砂淤泥质潮滩,沉积物元素可以记录潮滩环境变化的重要信息。在辐射沙洲岸滩采集了3个短柱沉积物岩芯,建立可靠的年代框架,采用高分辨率XRF元素扫描仪进行地球化学元素测试,选用XRF信号强度高的14种元素进行聚类和相关性方法提取环境信息,研究过去百年尺度人类活动和海岸环境变化下的苏北辐射沙洲岸滩沉积环境变化。结果表明,该区典型潮滩剖面岩芯沉积物中Si、Ca、As和Fe元素相对含量较高,且自北向南其含量不断增加,Mn、Ba、Cu和Zn元素含量较低,在所有剖面含量变化不大。在垂向上,Si、Ca和Fe元素变化趋势一致,而Ni、Zn和S元素在不同柱状岩芯中呈现与Si、Ca和Fe相反的变化趋势。相关关系和聚类分析显示,Si、Ca和Fe元素之间具有较高的相关性,即具有近似的地球化学行为和一致的物质来源;与元素Ni、Cu和Zn呈负相关,暗示了这几种元素与前者具有不同的地球化学行为。苏北辐射沙洲潮滩沉积物沉积环境发生了明显变化且在不同区域呈现不同的变化规律,物质来源、水动力环境、人类活动等因素是导致沉积环境变化的主要原因。 相似文献
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近几十年来的全球海面变化 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
本文分析了全球914个验潮站的月平均海面观测序列.在此基础上以一定的准则对其中有长期观测记录的414个验潮站求出了各验潮站的局部视海面变化速率,并在“均衡基准”下求得了近几十年来全球海面变化的平均速率约为每年缓慢上升1.25～1.45mm.但在地区、海域之间存在明显差异.提出了特别易受海面上升影响的若干地区. 相似文献
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本文用线性回归分析方法，分１９８５年以前和１９９２年以前两个时段，对我国沿岩２５个验潮站近百年来的海平面资料进行了系统分析，计算了两个时段相对海平面变化的年速率和平均海面高度，论述了海平面变化的主要控制因素，并对未来海平面变化趋势进行了预测。计算结果表明，近百年来我国沿岸相对海平面在总体上不但持续上升，而且近年来上升速率普遍加快；根据海平面变化的主要控制因素变化趋向，预计到下世纪中叶前后，全球性海 相似文献
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中国沿岸现代海平面变化及未来趋势分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文用线性回归分析方法，分１９８５年以前和１９９２年以前两个时段，对我国沿岸２５个验潮站近百年来的海平面资料进行了系统分析，计算了两个时段相对海平面变化的年速率和平均海面高度，论述了海平面变化的主要控制因素，并对未来海平面变化趋势进行了预测。计算结果表明，近百年来我国沿岸相对海平面在总体上不但持续上升，而且近年来上升速率普遍加快；根据海平面变化的主要控制因素变化趋向，预计到下世纪中叶前后，全球性海平面大幅度上升的可能性不大，我国沿岸区域性海乎面平均上升幅度不超过１５ｃｍ，不同岸段因地壳升降差异性大而有较大差别。 相似文献
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辐射沙脊主要水道的演变特征及其水动力机制研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
近四十年来的水下地形资料对比显示：南黄海辐射沙洲区水道普遍存在逐渐向南偏移的趋势（西洋主槽冲深、南延，南翼烂沙洋水道、小庙洪水道向南逼进）。有关辐射沙洲整体南移的原因及机理虽有诸多猜想，但至今没有统一可靠的认识，这种趋势性过程的驱动力成为辐射沙洲区海岸冲淤动态研究及港口建设过程中亟待解决的问题。在恢复黄河北归以来苏北黄河三角洲海岸不同发育阶段的岸线位置和水下地形的基础之上，通过所建立的潮波数学模型，研究了在苏北黄河三角洲不同演变阶段南黄海潮波系统的特征及水动力变化。研究表明，随着岸线后退和水下三角洲的夷平，辐射沙洲地区潮差不断增大；水动力不断加强，而且加强的区域逐渐向南偏移，这种大范围区域性水动力主轴的向南偏移就有可能是导致辐射沙洲整体南移的主导因素之一。 相似文献
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江苏岸外东沙沙脊群的沉积特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
江苏岸外辐射沙洲共由10多条形态完整的大型海底沙脊群构成,地形地貌复杂独特。东沙沙脊群是其中的第二大沙脊群,研究其沉积特征可以为揭示东沙乃至整个辐射沙洲海域的沉积环境提供依据。根据在江苏岸外东沙沙洲和条子泥沙洲(高泥和二分水)分别选取的8个和2个剖面的表层沉积物样粒度分析资料,分析其表层沉积物特征,结果表明:(1)东沙沙脊群的沉积物主要有砂、砂质粉砂和粉砂质砂三种类型;(2)搬运形式以跃移组分为主,悬移组分次之;(3)沉积物的平面分布特征主要表现为,东沙沙脊群的外缘沙洲和沙洲外缘沉积物较粗、越向沙洲中部沉积物越细;在东西方向上,西部细、东部粗;在南北方向上,具有对称分布、分级分布的特点;(4)东沙沙脊群沉积物的分布特征受风浪和潮流影响较大。 相似文献
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江苏岸外辐射沙脊群东沙稳定性研究 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
东沙是江苏岸外辐射沙脊群中的第二大沙洲,具有独特的地形地貌和水动力条件,对它进行稳定性研究为揭示整个辐射沙洲及其邻近岸滩的动态演变都非常有益。通过利用多年遥感卫片资料、1998年取得的现场水文泥沙观测资料和东沙滩面表层沉积物资料等,对东沙的地形地貌特征、沉积特征和东沙两侧潮汐通道的水流泥沙特征等进行了详细分析。研究结果表明,东沙的沙脊偏于西侧,西侧滩面较窄、高程较高且岸线较为顺直,东侧滩面较宽、高程较低且岸线较为破碎;西洋和陈家坞槽均处于冲刷状态,净输沙的主要方向为输向槽外或输向条子泥;东沙近三十年来面积有所缩小且有外围向中央收缩的趋势,尤其以向东、向南方向的迁移最为明显。 相似文献
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Salt marshes are potentially threatened by sea level rise if sediment supply is unable to balance the rising sea. A rapid sea level rise is one of the pronounced effects of global warming and global sea level is at present rising at an elevated rate of about 3.4 mm y? 1 on average. This increasing rate of sea level rise should make it possible to study the effect of rapidly rising sea level on salt marsh accumulation. However, such an understanding is generally hampered by lack of available data with sufficient precision. Here we present a high-precision dataset based on detailed radiometric measurements of 137Cs in 10 sediment cores retrieved at a natural and unmanaged micro tidal salt marsh. Two distinct 137Cs-peaks were found in all cores, one peak corresponding to the 1963-maximum caused by testing of nuclear weapons in the atmosphere and the other to the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Salt marsh accretion has generally kept pace with sea level rise since 1963 but comparison of the accumulation rates of minerogenic material in the period 1963–1986 and 1986–2003 revealed a slight decrease in accumulation with time in spite of an observed increase in inundation frequency. The observed decrease in sediment deposition is significant and gives reason for concern as it may be the first sign of a sedimentation deficiency which could be threatening this and other salt marshes in the case of a rapidly rising sea level. Our work demonstrates that the assumption of a constant relationship between salt marsh inundation and sediment deposition is not necessarily valid, even for a salt marsh that receives most of its allocthonous sediment from the adjacent sea. The apparent decrease in sediment deposition indicates that the basic assumption of sufficient sediment supply used in contemporary models dealing with salt marsh accretion is most probably not valid in the present case study and it may well be that this is also the case for many other salt marshes, especially if sea level continues to rise rapidly as indicated by some climate change scenarios. 相似文献
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布容法则及其在中国海岸上的应用 总被引：12，自引：1，他引：11
布容（Ｂｒｕｕｎ）法则是预测海平面上升引起海岸侵蚀最早的方法也是最简单的方法。根据中国砂质和淤泥质海岸的情况,布容法则可定性地解释海平面上升与海岸侵蚀的关系,在满足它要求条件的海岸地段和发育时期,用它预测海岸侵蚀或许是可能的。但是,若不严格审查海岸环境和条件,把它作为海平面上升情况预测海岸侵蚀的普遍模式,有待更多的研究加以证明。 相似文献
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The waterline detection method (WDM) based on satellite images is one of the most effective methods for constructing digital elevation models (DEMs) for tidal flats. The general practicability of the WDM has been demonstrated in previous studies for small areas. This article attempts to generate a DEM over a large offshore sandbank with a tidal flat area of more than 620 km2 by integrating the conventional WDM with a hydraulic model and multitemporal satellite images. For illustration purposes, a case study was conducted at the Dongsha sandbank, one of the largest sandbanks among the radial tidal sand ridges of Jiangsu Province, China. In this study, 34 multitemporal satellite images acquired at different tidal phases in 2006 were analyzed to detect the waterlines. The water level at each satellite overpass moment was simulated by a south Yellow Sea hydraulic model, and discrete waterline points were combined with the corresponding water levels to produce a topographic map. Compared with the DEM produced during the same period by the airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data, the DEM derived from WDM effectively contains the average height error within 47 cm, which is satisfactory. All of these findings may be useful for researchers and local authorities, as the findings could be used as a reference for sandbank evolution research or to support environmental management, coast protection, and storm forecasting. 相似文献
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Major variations in type and rate of tectonic movement in the southwestern margin of the Ulleung Basin coincide in time with
changes in stratal patterns at succession boundaries, suggesting that the effect of tectonism was dominant for the development
of sequence architecture. During the back-arc opening (16–12 Ma), the rise of relative sea level and the high rate of sediment
supply gave rise to sequences with sigmoid progradational patterns. During the back-arc closing (12–6.5 Ma), fall- and rise-dominated
relative sea-level fluctuations resulted in sequences with varying stratal patterns depending upon changes in deposition rate.
The rise-dominated relative sea level has been prevalent during the later stage (6.5 Ma–Present) with low sedimentation rate.
Received: 16 January 1996 / Revision received: 7 February 1997 相似文献
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苏北陆岸岸滩主要潮沟近期变迁的遥感解译 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
收集了7个时相的陆地卫星资料、5个时相的SAR影象和3个时期的海图,利用其中的9个时相对苏北辐射沙洲陆岸岸滩次级潮沟近年来的摆动进行了分析,得出其变动范围与周期;在MapInfo中数字化20世纪60年代与70年代的海图,对辐射沙洲区主要沙洲的变化进行了分析. 相似文献
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Statistical analysis and forecasts of long-term sandbank evolution at Great Yarmouth, UK 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
Dominic E. Reeve Jos M. Horrillo-Caraballo Vanesa Magar 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008,79(3):387-399
A data-driven model has been developed to analyse the long-term evolution of a sandbank system and to make ensemble predictions in a period of 8 years. The method uses a combination of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, (to define spatial and temporal patterns of variability), jack-knife resampling, (to generate an ensemble of EOFs), a causal auto-regression technique, (to extrapolate the temporal eigenfunctions), and straightforward statistical analysis of the resulting ensemble of predictions to determine a ‘forecast’ and associated uncertainty. The methodology has been applied to a very demanding site which includes a curved shoreline and a group of mobile nearshore sandbanks. The site is on the eastern coast of the UK and includes the Great Yarmouth sandbanks and neighbouring shoreline. A sequence of 33 high quality historical survey charts reaching back to 1848 have been used to analyse the patterns and to predict morphological evolution of the sandbank system. The forecasts demonstrate an improved skill relative to an assumption of persistence, but suffer in locations where there are propagating features in the morphology that are not well-described by EOFs. 相似文献
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Tectonically-complex settings present accommodation and sediment supply changes with patterns and rates for which the current sequence stratigraphy paradigms are not designed. In the Tertiary Piedmont Basin (TPB) and Peri-Adriatic Basin (PAB), outcrop and seismic examples demonstrate that the observed stratal and stacking patterns cannot be entirely explained using conventional sequence-stratigraphic models. Therefore, it is of paramount importance to use a model-independent more comprehensive approach encompassing advanced sequence-stratigraphic concepts combined with process changes, while being able to consider the morphostructural complexity that characterizes these margins and their changes induced by basin reshaping.Abrupt relative sea level falls generated by uplift or basin inversion may exceed several hundreds of meters, resulting in wedge-margin progressive unconformities characterized by subaerial and subaqueous erosional truncation. A progressive increase in sediment supply occurs, expressed by increasing volume and size of mass-transport complexes overlain by forced-regressive deltas, as the maximum sediment supply is delayed until after the main uplift. Different accommodation/sediment supply ratios may also occur at the same time along different margins of the same basin, generating a diachronism in the T-R or R-T cycles, adding further complexity to the variability produced by autogenesis.On clastic shelf margins characterized by an increasing rate of relative sea level rise, such as in case of increasing rollback velocities and related flexural tilting, or following an orogenic collapse, sediment supply may not keep pace with increasing accommodation so that initially retrogradation and basinward condensation occur, marked by omission surfaces. However, when the rate of subsidence increases, the succession is punctuated by multiple subaqueous erosional unconformities marking phases of basinward tilting leading to the oversteepening of basin margins and abrupt deepening. The downwarping usually produces large-scale subaqueous erosional surfaces passing laterally into paraconformities, so hinged-margin drowning unconformities affecting clastic shelves occur, associated with regional stratigraphic gaps.The re-establishment of the slope equilibrium profile implies high volume of sediments eroded from drowned deltas and shelves, feeding turbidites deposited at the toe of above-grade slopes. These turbidites can be therefore considered as high accommodation-high sediment supply systems. This suggests that turbidites are delivered basinward not only due to bypass at sequence boundaries or during the highstand progradation of supply-driven deltas, but also due to abrupt accommodation creation on hinged-shelf margin wedges.The great variability of tectonically-driven unconformities generated under either decreasing or increasing accommodation suggests that the features described in the TPB and the PAB are probably not uncommon, controlled by linked dynamic turnarounds of accommodation, sediment supply and stratigraphy taking place throughout the development of basin reorganizations. 相似文献