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1.
利用TOPEX卫星高度计资料分析东中国海的风、浪场特征   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
利用TOPEX卫星高度计和日本气象厅浮标观测资料,对东中国海的有效波高和风速进行比较,分析了卫星高度计资料的有效性。利用有效波高和风速的3种概率密度函数分布,结合TOPEX卫星高度计资料,并采用最大似然方法对统计分布参数进行估计,结果表明,有效波高的对数-正态概率密度分布与观测资料的直方图在有效波高的整个范围内符合较好,风速的直方图与Weibul概率密度分布符合较好。同时,分析了有效波高大于4 m的巨浪在东中国海的时空分布特征,表明巨浪多出现在冬、秋两季,平均有效波高最大值出现在夏季,且主要分布在东中国海东南部。  相似文献   

2.
西北太平洋夏季海浪数值模拟研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
为了解第三代海浪模式SWAN在西北太平洋海浪模拟效果,利用2013年7月期间Jason-2卫星高度计观测资料,通过计算模拟值和观测值的绝对误差、均方根误差和进行逐日统计、分级统计、一次台风过程的统计,对FNL风场资料驱动SWAN模式的西北太平洋海浪数值模拟有效波高进行了检验。检验结果表明,模式对较小波高模拟效果较好,模拟波高与实测值误差在可接受的范围之内,可满足业务化预报的要求,但对较大波高的模拟存在一定的误差,且驱动风场的精细化水平直接影响模拟效果。  相似文献   

3.
通过数值试验验证卫星高度计波高数据同化对西北太平洋3 d海浪预报的改进效果。驱动海浪模式的强迫场采用国家海洋环境预报中心基于MM5模式预报的风场,波高数据同化使用的观测数据是Jason-1卫星高度计有效波高。用最优插值数据同化方法获得海浪有效波高的最优估计并重构相应的海浪方向谱,以此为初始场进行为期3 d的数值预报试验。与没有同化的预报进行了比较和分析,结果表明卫星高度计海浪数据同化对0~72 h预报有不同程度的明显改善,改进程度随预报时效的增加而减少。  相似文献   

4.
最优化插值同化方法在预报南海台风浪中的应用   总被引:6,自引:2,他引:4  
由经验的holland台风模型和NCEP再分析风场资料相结合构造出南海台风风场,结果较好地符合了TOPEX/Poseidon(T/P)卫星高度计观测的风速分布。以此作为第三代海浪模式的输入风场,模拟了1999年约克(York)台风经过南海海域的台风浪,并利用T/P卫星高度计观测的有效波高资料对模式进行同化。结果显示,同化影响半径取为2000km效果较好,同化影响时间是35h,同化改善了模式预报的精度。  相似文献   

5.
卫星高度计可获取有关海南流浪和粗糙度的信息,并可给出较高精度的海浪有效流高值。以1988年GEOSAT高度计资料为依据,研究了分析南海北部海域的有效波高特征,并与常规断面调查所得结论作了比较分析。  相似文献   

6.
利用Jason-1卫星高度计观测资料,验证了WWATCH Ⅲ海浪模式在模拟南海冷空气过程海浪场的有效性和准确性.结果发现,以NCEP再分析风场驱动的WWATCH Ⅲ模式能够较好地模拟冷空气影响南海时的海浪变化,模拟结果与Jason-1卫星高度计的观测资料有比较好的一致性.在近海岸地区以及冷空气活动末期,模拟值与观测值的相关系数有所降低,但平均相对误差和均方根误差均在可以接受的范围内.说明WWATCH Ⅲ模式可以作为我国南海地区海浪模拟预测研究的有效工具之一.  相似文献   

7.
海面有效波高(H1/3)是表征海浪的重要参数,随着卫星遥感技术的发展,雷达高度计已成为获取海面有效波高的重要手段,但也只能对卫星星下点轨迹处进行有效观测,远无法满足大范围应用的需求.本研究结合2013年10月HY-2雷达高度计观测的海面有效波高和微波散射计观测的海面风场资料,分别对高、低风速下风浪数据进行拟合,建立了适用于0~40 m/s风速范围内的南海海域风浪关系模型,经模型比对和结果验证,结果表明,基于HY-2卫星数据分析建立的南海海域风浪关系模型是可信的,特别是低风速的风浪模型与实测数据建立的风浪模型具有很好的一致性;根据建立的风浪关系模型,从卫星散射计大面观测的海面风场出发,能推算出风浪条件下海面有效波高的大面信息,数据覆盖远高于卫星高度计的星下点观测,能为分析和预报海浪、风暴潮灾害提供大范围的海面有效波高信息.  相似文献   

8.
GEOSAT高度计遥感分析南海北部的海浪特征   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
卫星高度计可获取有关海面波浪和粗糙度的信息,可给出较高精度的海浪有效波高值.本文以1988年GEOSAT卫星高度计资料为依据,研究分析了南海北部海域的有效波高特征,并与常规断面调查所得结论作了比较分析.结果表明,GEOSAT高度计研究区域波浪特征与常规手段所得结论基本一致,但对大风浪海况的研究,卫星高度计资料具有明显的优势.  相似文献   

9.
基于MASNUM海浪数值预报系统的全球10 a后报数据库资料,分析了北印度洋区域波浪分布特征.由于该地区受季风控制显著,夏季波浪大于冬季;在空间分布上,西部比东部风大、浪大,在亚丁湾、索马里外海波浪最大.基于Janson-1卫星高度计有效波高观测资料,对MASNUM海浪预报系统的预报性能进行了检验,检验结果表明,预报波高均方根误差在0.5 m左右,短期的24 h预报效果好于48 h和72 h,冬季好于夏季.另外,对预报误差进行了相应的概率分布分析.  相似文献   

10.
基于海浪模式SWAN(Simulating Waves Nearshore),以台风“Lipee”为例,开展了集合最优插值(EnOI)同化HY-2卫星高度计有效波高(SWH)资料的台风浪数值预报影响研究。结果表明,利用HY-2卫星高度计波高资料结合EnOI方法进行同化,可有效改善海浪初始场质量,同化对绝对误差的改进可达15%,均方根误差改进14%。同化对预报误差、均方根误差都有一定程度的改进,其中在0~24 h预报时效内的改进最为明显,绝对误差可改进12%,均方根误差改进13%。研究结果不仅可为海洋预报、同化提供参考,而且可为进一步加强HY-2卫星高度计资料的应用提供技术支持。  相似文献   

11.
This article describes the impact of satellite altimeter data on the simulations of sea level variability (SLV) by a nonlinear reduced gravity model of the entire Indian Ocean. The model has been forced by 6-hourly analyzed wind stress data containing SSM/I observations and has been able to produce realistic circulation features. However, SLV values observed by Topex/Poseidon altimeter do not fit these simulations because of imperfect initial data. Hence an attempt has been made to initialize the model using altimeter data. The initialized model-generated SLVvalues have been compared with SLV derived by altimeter for monsoon as well as nonmonsoon months of 1996. Experimental runs have been performed for 10 days, 20 days, and one month. It has been found that the initialized model results on the final day of these experiments are in very good agreement with altimeter data of the same day. It is thus possible, in principle, to hindcast and forecast sea level variations in the time scale of 10 days to one month with the availability of good quality wind data for forcing the model and altimeter observations of sea level for initializing it.  相似文献   

12.
This article describes the impact of satellite altimeter data on the simulations of sea level variability (SLV) by a nonlinear reduced gravity model of the entire Indian Ocean. The model has been forced by 6-hourly analyzed wind stress data containing SSM/I observations and has been able to produce realistic circulation features. However, SLV values observed by Topex/Poseidon altimeter do not fit these simulations because of imperfect initial data. Hence an attempt has been made to initialize the model using altimeter data. The initialized model-generated SLVvalues have been compared with SLV derived by altimeter for monsoon as well as nonmonsoon months of 1996. Experimental runs have been performed for 10 days, 20 days, and one month. It has been found that the initialized model results on the final day of these experiments are in very good agreement with altimeter data of the same day. It is thus possible, in principle, to hindcast and forecast sea level variations in the time scale of 10 days to one month with the availability of good quality wind data for forcing the model and altimeter observations of sea level for initializing it.  相似文献   

13.
Interannual variability of the sea surface height (SSH) over the northeast Pacific Ocean is hindcast with a reduced-gravity, quasi-geostrophic model that includes linear damping. The model is forced with monthly Ekman pumping fields derived from the NCEP reanalysis wind stresses. The numerical solution is compared with SSH observations derived from satellite altimeter data and gridded at a lateral resolution of 1 degree. Provided that the reduced gravity parameter is chosen appropriately, the results demonstrate that the model has significant hindcast skill over interior regions of the basin, away from continental boundaries. A damping time scale of 2 to 3 years is close to optimal, although the hindcast skill is not strongly dependent on this parameter.A simplification of the quasi-geostrophic model is considered in which Rossby waves are eliminated, yielding a Markov model driven by local Ekman pumping. The results approximately reproduce the hindcast skill of the more complete quasi-geostrophic model and indicate that the interannual SSH variability is dominated by the local response to wind forcing. There is a close correspondence the two leading empirical orthogonal modes of the local model and those of the observed SSH anomalies. The latter account for over half of the variance of the interannual signal over the region.  相似文献   

14.
卫星高度计实现了对全球性或区域性的海洋参量的实时监测,TOPEX卫星高度计提供了迄今为止时间序列最长、数据质量最高的全球海面风速和有效波高的同步观测资料。利用TOPEX卫星高度计资料,分析了有效波高4m以上的巨浪在台湾岛周边海域的时空分布特征,结果表明台湾岛周边海域巨浪的分布具有明显的季节特征。每年平均有效波高最大值大多数出现在夏季,春季是1a中有效波高最小的季节,而秋季和冬季是巨浪出现频率最高的季节。波高大于6m的巨浪大都出现在台湾岛东部及东北部海域,在南部海域出现较少。  相似文献   

15.
Wind speed and wave height measured by satellite altimeters represent a good data source to the study of global and regional wind and wave conditions. In this paper, the TOPEX altimeter wind and wave measurements in the Yellow and East China Seas are analyzed. The results provide a glimpse on the statistical properties and the spatial distributions of the regional wind and wave conditions. These data are excellent for use in the validation and verification of numerical simulations on global and regional scales. The altimeter measurements are compared with model output of temporal statistics and spatial distributions. The results show that the model simulations are in good agreement with TOPEX measurements in terms of the local mean and standard deviation of the variables (wave height and wind speed). For the comparison of spatial distributions, the quality of agreement between numerical simulations and altimeter measurements varies significantly from cycle to cycle of altimeter passes. In many cases, trends in the spatial distributions of wave heights and wind speeds between simulations and measurements are opposite. The statistics of biases, rms differences, linear regression coefficients and correlation coefficients are presented. A rather large percentage (∼50%) of cases show poor agreement based on a combination of low correlation, large rms difference or bias, and poor regression coefficient. There are indications that wave age is a factor affecting the performance of wave modeling skills. Generally speaking, the error statistics in the wave field is correlated to the corresponding error statistics in the wind field under the condition of active wind-wave generation. The error statistics between the wave field and the wind field become less correlated for large wave ages. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

16.
For more and more applications in coastal and offshore engineering, numerical simulations of waves and surges are required. An important input parameter for such simulations are wind fields. They represent one of the major sources for uncertainties in wave and surge simulations. Wind fields for such simulations are frequently obtained from numerical hindcasts with regional atmospheric models (RAMs). The skill of these atmospheric hindcasts depends, among others, on the quality of the forcing at the boundaries. Furthermore, results may vary due to uncertainties in the initial conditions. By comparing different existing approaches for forcing a regional atmospheric model, it is shown that the models' sensitivity to uncertainties in the initial conditions may be reduced when a more sophisticated approach is used that has been suggested recently. For a specific, although somewhat brief test period, it is demonstrated that an improved hindcast skill for near surface wind fields is obtained when this approach is adopted. Consequences of the reduced uncertainty in wield fields for the hindcast skill of subsequent wave modelling studies are demonstrated. Recently, this new approach has been used together with a regional atmosphere model to produce a 40-year wind hindcast for the Northeast Atlantic, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. The hindcast is presently extended to other areas and the wind fields are used to produce 40-year high-resolution hindcasts of waves and surges for various European coastal areas.  相似文献   

17.
Accurately estimating the mean and extreme wave statistics and better understanding their directional and seasonal variations are of great importance in the planning and designing of ocean and coastal engineering works. Due to the lack of long-term wave measurement data, the analysis of extreme waves is often based on the numerical wave hind-casting results. In this study, the wave climate in the East China Seas (including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea) for the past 35 years (1979–2013) is hind-casted using a third generation wave model – WAMC4 (Cycle 4 version of WAM model). Two sets of reanalysis wind data from NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) are used to drive the wave model to generate the long-term wave climate. The hind-casted waves are then analysed to study the mean and extreme wave statistics in the study area. The results show that the mean wave heights decrease from south to north and from sea to land in general. The extreme wave heights with return periods of 50 and 100 years in the summer and autumn seasons are significantly higher than those in the other two seasons, mainly due to the effect of typhoon events. The mean wave heights in the winter season have the highest values, mainly due to the effect of winter monsoon winds. The comparison of extreme wave statistics from both wind fields with the field measurements at several nearshore wave observation stations shows that the extreme waves generated by the ECMWF winds are better than those generated by the NCEP winds. The comparison also shows the extreme waves in deep waters are better reproduced than those in shallow waters, which is partly attributed to the limitations of the wave model used. The results presented in this paper provide useful insight into the wave climate in the area of the East China Seas, as well as the effect of wind data resolution on the simulation of long-term waves.  相似文献   

18.
张洁  田杰  王兆徽 《海洋预报》2020,37(1):1-10
利用机器学习的方法,对14个周期HY-2A卫星高度计数据:风速、有效波高和海面高度差值进行训练,探究海况偏差和风速、有效波高之间的关系,创建海况偏差核函数非参数模型(NPSSB),并与参数模型中具有代表性的BM3、BM4模型进行对比。研究表明:(1)核函数NPSSB模型能够很好的反映SSB与U、SWH之间的关系,SSB与U呈二次函数关系,SSB与SWH呈反比例函数关系;(2)核函数NPSSB模型对SSB的模拟能力与训练数据集相关,数据量越多,模拟能力越好;(3)核函数NPSSB模型与BM3、BM4模型都存在0^-0.03 m的差值,随着风速和有效波高的增加,差值的绝对值越大。  相似文献   

19.
背景误差相关结构的确定是影响海浪同化效果的关键因素之一。集合Kalman滤波是一种较为成熟的同化方法,其可以对背景误差进行实时更新和动态估计,现已广泛应用于海洋和大气领域的研究。本文基于MASNUM-WAM海浪模式,分别采用静态样本集合Kalman滤波和EAKF方法,针对2014年全球海域开展海浪数据同化实验,同化资料为Jason-2卫星高度计数据,利用Saral卫星高度计资料对同化实验结果进行检验。结果表明,两组同化方案均有效提高了海浪模式的模拟水平,EAKF方案在风场变化较大的西风带区域表现显著优于静态样本集合Kalman滤波方案,但总体上两者相差不大。综合考虑计算成本和同化效果,静态样本集合Kalman滤波方案更适用于海浪业务化预报。  相似文献   

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