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1.
为有效保护和合理利用广西红树林,探讨了自2000年到2100年全球海平面上升、地壳上升和潮滩沉积对英罗湾红树林分布的影响。采用机理分析方法建立红树林边界位置预测模型;利用预测模型计算在2000年数字高程模型上定位2100年红树林边界的数据;利用Global Mapper软件在2000年数字高程模型上确定红树林边界的位置。利用Mapinfo professional地理信息系统软件分析海平面上升引起的红树林边界的移动。通过研究得到在2000年数字高程模型上表达2100年红树林边界位置的数据,以及自2000年到2100年红树林边界移动专题地图。结果表明:自2000年到2100年,低、中模式海平面上升,英罗湾红树林边界向外扩展,面积增大;高模式海平面上升,红树林边界向陆移动,面积增大;极端模式海平面上升,红树林边界向陆移动,面积减小。 相似文献
2.
红树林潮滩沉积速率及海平面上升对我国红树林的影响 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
我国红树林潮滩沉积速率介于４．１～５７ｍｍ／ａ之间，本文通过红树林潮滩沉积速率与当地相对海平面上升速率的比较，认为海平面上升对我国大部分地区红树林不会构成严重威胁，但对当地泥沙来源少，红树林潮滩沉积速率较低的地区会造成严重影响，此外，还对影响红树村潮滩沉积速率的因素进行了探讨。 相似文献
3.
《海洋通报(英文版)》2020,(1)
评估了海平面上升情景和共享社会经济发展路径下辽东湾砂质海岸潜在侵蚀状况及其社会经济影响。结果显示,2100年辽东湾海平面将上升20～43厘米。在所有海平面上升情景下土地损失均增加,2100年RCP8.5情景下土地损失最大达到32.1平方千米。受海岸侵蚀影响,沿海人口将被迫迁移,SSP3情景下人口增长较快且迁移人数最多,2100年SSP3/RCP8.5情景下将达到3.1万人。2050年后,不同情景下的迁移人口差别将增大,在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下人口迁移速率将逐渐减小。2100年,SSP5/RCP8.5情景下海岸侵蚀经济损失最大将达到80.5亿元,而在海岸侵蚀造成的经济损失中,土地损失比人口迁移损失小两个数量级。在所有情景下,海岸侵蚀经济损失占当地GDP的份额约为1.12‰～4.76‰,这值得当地管理部门关注,并采取减缓海岸侵蚀的措施,尤其是加强对旅游沙滩的保护。建议采取最优的海岸防护方案,重点对价值较高的沙滩进行养护,在海岸侵蚀影响较小的区域可不采取养护措施。 相似文献
4.
《海洋预报》2018,(6)
用Non-Boussinesq POP模式和1986—2005年SODA再分析资料的海表面温度、盐度和风应力,模拟了1986—2005年间的全球海平面变化,并根据RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种代表性浓度排放情景下未来气候变化趋势的预测,对未来一个世纪的海平面变化进行预估,在仅考虑热膨胀的前提下,得到了如下结论:(1)在过去20 a间,全球平均海平面高度上升了56 mm,上升较大的海域主要为西北太平洋、南太平洋中部和南大西洋;(2)到2100年,RCP4.5情景下全球平均海平面上升0.36 m,RCP8.5情景下全球平均海平面上升0.43 m;(3)未来海平面变化较大的海域包括西北太平洋、西南太平洋、西南大西洋和印度洋,南大洋、北大西洋和赤道太平洋海平面变化相对较小。 相似文献
5.
RCP4.5情景下预测21世纪南海海平面变化 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
结合卫星高度计资料和SODA温盐数据,本文利用CCSM(Community Climate System Model version4)气候系统模式在代表性浓度路径RCP4.5情景下对全球海平面变化趋势的预测模拟结果作为强迫场,用POP模式模拟预测21世纪南海海平面长期趋势变化及空间分布。模拟结果显示,在RCP4.5情景下,南海海域在21世纪末10年平均海平面相对于20世纪末10年上升了15~39cm,明显上升海域位于中南半岛东部的南海中部、南部海域和吕宋海峡东西两侧海域,上升值最大可达39cm。如果加上格陵兰和南极等陆地冰川融化的影响,21世纪南海总海平面上升值将可能达到35~75cm。南海比容海平面明显上升区域位于吕宋岛东面的深水海域,广东沿岸流和吕宋冷涡之间海域,以及中南半岛东南部海域。总比容海平面的变化主要来自热比容,盐比容贡献比较小。南海南部和西部比容海平面上升速率较低,如加里曼丹岛西北侧、泰国湾和海南岛西侧有下降趋势。 相似文献
6.
基于中国沿海10个验潮站资料,利用皮尔森Ⅲ型(P-Ⅲ)模型探讨了典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathway,RCP)情景下21世纪海平面上升对中国沿海地区极值水位重现期的影响。结果表明:海平面上升将显著缩短极值水位的重现期。在RCP8.5情景下极值水位的重现期缩短最为显著。预估到2050年,在RCP8.5情景下,所研究的中国沿海地区潮位站的百年一遇极值水位将变为9~43 a一遇。到2100年,在RCP8.5情景下,百年一遇极值水位变为1~18 a一遇。当前极值水位的低概率事件将在2100年变得普遍,在RCP8.5情景下,到2100年千年一遇的几乎每两百年发生一次。由于极值水位的重现期会随着气候变化而缩短,未来沿海地区将会面临更严峻的风险与挑战。 相似文献
7.
鉴于红树林生态系统对气候变化背景下海平面上升和极端台风事件有高度敏感性,应用1980—2018年的海洋大气观测资料和实地调查数据,分析了海口东寨港地区的海平面、温度和台风最大风速的变化特征,并基于IPCC气候变化综合风险的理论框架,构建了"暴露度-敏感性-适应性"的脆弱性评价指标体系和估算方法,评估了海平面上升和台风事件背景下东寨港红树林生态系统的脆弱性主要特征。结果显示:①东寨港红树林生态系统的致灾影响因子主要为该地区沿海海平面的快速上升,其上升速率可达4. 6 mm/a,远高于全球和中国沿海平均值;其次为1993年之前和2006年之后,在海口地区250 km范围内出现的热带气旋或台风事件;②东寨港红树林脆弱性指数的平均值为0. 31,属于中度脆弱等级,其中三江片区的红树林脆弱性相对最高,演丰片区最低。构建的评价指标体系可较好地反映出海平面快速上升和热带气旋或台风影响下红树林生态系统的脆弱性特征。 相似文献
8.
《热带海洋学报》2016,(3)
利用三维海洋环流模式(parallel ocean program,POP),探讨典型浓度路径(representative concentration pathway,RCP)情景下21世纪格陵兰冰川不同的融化季节对海平面变化的影响。结果表明:在RCP4.5情景下,当格陵兰冰川以7%×a~(-1)的加速度快速融化时,相比于只在夏半年融化,全年融化会导致动力海平面在北冰洋、北大西洋副极地海域加速上升,而在欧洲西北部和北大西洋副热带海域加速下降;比容海平面在北美沿岸加速上升,热带大西洋和南大西洋副热带海域也有所上升,北冰洋、欧洲西北部和北大西洋副热带则显著下降。格陵兰冰川不同的融化季节对海平面变化影响的不同,主要是由于相比于只在夏半年融化,格陵兰冰川全年融化会造成大量较冷较淡的融冰水被滞留在格陵兰岛南部海域,在冬半年,会导致上层海洋层化加强和大西洋经向翻转流进一步减弱,一方面造成大量海水在北大西洋副极地海域堆积;另一方面导致向北的热盐输运减弱,从而造成了北冰洋、北大西洋副极地和副热带海域东部的热比容海平面显著下降和盐比容海平面加速上升。 相似文献
9.
湿地地表高程变化的测量与研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
地表高程变化的测量对于预测海平面上升对湿地的影响以及对浅部下沉的研究至关重要。美国地质调查局国家湿地研究中心发明的地表高程测量仪是当前可信度最高的测量设备。该测量仪往往与测量沉积速率的水平标志层测量法同时使用，所建立的地表高程水平标志层测量体系已得到了广泛的应用。介绍了该测量仪与测量体系，并简单总结了地表高程-水平标志层红树林测量网络的最新数据分析，得出结论包括：沉积速率与区域性泥沙来源有关，而且与相对海平面上升速率也呈一定的相关性；但是地表高程抬升速率与考察的各项参数都没有相关性。 相似文献
10.
《热带海洋学报》2017,(2)
红树林湿地对维持热带-亚热带地区海岸带生态平衡具有重要作用,并在全球碳循环中扮演重要角色。以广西北海市红树林湿地作为研究对象,对该地区两处湿地钻孔沉积物的粒度、沉积速率进行了综合研究,并结合当地近30余年的降雨量和台风登陆频率的变化特征,分析了红树林沉积物中风暴沉积的粒度组分、含量以及影响风暴沉积输入量的主要因素以及红树林沉积速率对于气候变化的响应特征。研究表明:1)正常天气状况下由潮流输入的泥沙粒级均为粉砂-黏土组分,红树林沉积中的砂粒级组分为台风期间的暴风浪输入。风暴沉积在南流江口红树林沉积物中所占的比重超过56%,在大冠沙红树林沉积物中所占比重超过73%。2)近30年来,两处红树林湿地的沉积速率对于台风登陆频率增加有明显正响应,而对降雨量变化则无明显响应。3)在径流来沙量较少的大冠沙红树林湿地,由于岸线开敞、潮间带和红树林带宽度较小,导致台风期间暴风浪入射能量较强,风暴沉积输入量较高,其沉积速率反而高于径流来沙量充足的河口区。 相似文献
11.
12.
于１９８８年９月－１９８９年１月在大亚湾潮间带采集底栖动物标本，经分类研究发现，共有５４７种，其中藻类９１种，多毛类１２０种，软体动物２０９种，甲壳动物８３种，棘皮动物１９种，其他动物２５种。研究表明，其区系性质以热带亚热带暖水种占多数，有许多热带种发展成优势种。在水平分布上，岩石相种类（３１６）＞沙滩种数（２２２）＞红树林泥滩（５１）；在垂直分布上，中潮区种数（３９８）＞低潮区（２２１）＞红树林 相似文献
13.
Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea(SCS) is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarios. By the end of the 21 st century(2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005), the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level(DSL) is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise(SLR) of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21 st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level(SSL) rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21 st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves. 相似文献
14.
A change in the elevation of bare tidal flats outside a mangrove area is an indispensable factor for the sustainable development of mangroves. Waterline extraction, as an effective and economical tool used in reconstructing the terrain of an intertidal zone, has been widely applied to open-coast tidal flats by constructing a digital elevation model (DEM). However, mangrove wetlands are usually located in wave-sheltered sites, such as estuaries and bays that have narrow tidal channels flanked by tidal flats. Changes in water level are affected by the dry-wet processes of complex landforms caused by tides. This article takes as a study case the area of Yingluo Bay, which covers the core region of the Zhanjiang and Shankou National Mangrove National Nature Reserve in southwestern China. Waterline extraction based on seventeen multisource and multispectral satellite images obtained from December 2014 to April 2015, combining the finite-volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM) hydrodynamic model in an iterative process, was used to generate a topographical map of the bare tidal flat outside the mangrove area in Yingluo Bay. The quality of the iterative DEMs was evaluated via six transects of a ground-based survey using Real - time kinematic (RKT) GPS in May 2015. The mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the DEM decreased with an increase in the number of iterations. In this study, the DEM in the third iteration was used as the final output because the difference from the previous iterative DEM satisfied an inversion-stopping criterion. The MAE and RMSE of the final DEM with the measured data were 0.072 and 0.09?m, respectively, without considering small tidal creeks. The method used in this study can be an effective and highly precise approach for detecting and reconstructing the historical terrain of a bare tidal flat outside a mangrove area. This work also has great importance regarding intertidal resource management and the sustainable development of mangroves facing the vulnerable coastal ecological environment. 相似文献
15.
Surface evolution and carbon sequestration in disturbed and undisturbed wetland soils of the Hunter estuary,southeast Australia 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The aim of this work was to quantify the soil carbon storage and sequestration rates of undisturbed natural wetlands and disturbed wetlands subject to restriction of tidal flow and subsequent rehabilitation in an Australian estuary. Disturbed and undisturbed estuarine wetlands of the Hunter estuary, New South Wales, Australia were selected as the study sites for this research. Vertical accretion rates of estuarine substrates were combined with soil carbon concentrations and bulk densities to determine the carbon store and carbon sequestration rates of the substrates tested. Relationships between estuary water level, soil evolution and vertical accretion were also examined. The carbon sequestration rate of undisturbed wetlands was lower (15% for mangrove and 55% for saltmarsh) than disturbed wetlands, but the carbon store was higher (65% for mangrove and 60% for saltmarsh). The increased carbon sequestration rate of the disturbed wetlands was driven by substantially higher rates of vertical accretion (95% for mangrove and 345% for saltmarsh). Estuarine wetland carbon stores were estimated at 700–1000 Gg C for the Hunter estuary and 3900–5600 Gg C for New South Wales. Vertical accretion and carbon sequestration rates of estuarine wetlands in the Hunter are at the lower end of the range reported in the literature. The comparatively high carbon sequestration rates reported for the disturbed wetlands in this study indicate that wetland rehabilitation has positive benefits for regulation of atmospheric carbon concentrations, in addition to more broadly accepted ecosystem services. 相似文献
16.
Vegetation change and surface elevation dynamics in estuarine wetlands of southeast Australia 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
Vertical accretion and surface elevation trends were studied in mangrove and saltmarsh wetlands in southeast Australia. A total of 69 surface elevation tables, each associated with three feldspar marker horizons, was deployed in 10 wetlands across 7 estuaries, and monitored for three years. Saltmarsh and mangrove vegetation distributions were mapped for the same estuaries, and elevation characteristics of the wetlands were modelled. Rates of vertical accretion were found to correlate with tidal range. No relationship was found between rates of vertical accretion and surface elevation increase. A positive relationship was demonstrated between contemporary rates of saltmarsh surface elevation change and longer-term rates of mangrove encroachment into saltmarsh. We conclude that landward mangrove encroachment may be facilitated by local factors contributing to saltmarsh compaction during drought conditions. 相似文献
17.
In the Ariake Sea, dike construction in Isahaya Bay in 1997 for reclamation and disaster prevention was thought to cause big anthropogenic impacts on the marine ecosystem. Currently, hypoxia or anoxia occurs every summer in Isahaya Bay and the inner Ariake Sea. However, the effects of the dike construction on the DO concentration are unclarified. The present study evaluated the impact of the dike construction on the DO concentration by applying a numerical ecosystem model. The present calculation showed that the dike construction could affect the DO concentration in summer in a wider area than reported before in the steady state with a neap-spring tidal cycle. In Isahaya Bay, the dike construction caused a decrease of DO concentration greater than 2.0 mg l?1 , due to the decrease in DO supply from the vertical diffusion process with reduction of tidal current and the intensification of the density stratification. The dike construction also affected the DO concentration in the inner Ariake Sea by decreasing the DO concentration of the water transported by the estuarine circulation and the reduction of the diffusive supply of oxygen vertically with stratification enhanced by the dike construction. For the first time, this study showed with numerical simulation that the dike construction could affect the DO concentration in a wide area of the Ariake Sea. 相似文献
18.
On the basis of the satellite maps of sea level anomaly(MSLA) data and in situ tidal gauge sea level data,correlation analysis and empirical mode decomposition(EMD) are employed to investigate the applicability of MSLA data,sea level correlation,long-term sea level variability(SLV) trend,sea level rise(SLR) rate and its geographic distribution in the South China Sea(SCS).The findings show that for Dongfang Station,Haikou Station,Shanwei Station and Zhapo Station,the minimum correlation coefficient between the closest MSLA grid point and tidal station is 0.61.This suggests that the satellite altimeter MSLA data are effective to observe the coastal SLV in the SCS.On the monthly scale,coastal SLV in the western and northern part of SCS are highly associated with coastal currents.On the seasonal scale,SLV of the coastal area in the western part of the SCS is still strongly influenced by the coastal current system in summer and winter.The Pacific change can affect the SCS mainly in winter rather than summer and the affected area mostly concentrated in the northeastern and eastern parts of the SCS.Overall,the average SLR in the SCS is 90.8 mm with a rising rate of(5.0±0.4) mm/a during1993–2010.The SLR rate from the southern Luzon Strait through the Huangyan Seamount area to the Xisha Islands area is higher than that of other areas of the SCS. 相似文献
19.
应用MIKE数值模拟软件,采用无结构三角形网格,建立一套计算区域包括整个渤海、黄海、东海以及东海大陆架和琉球群岛的高分辨率数值模型,考虑了实际水深和岸线,外海开边界采用西北太平洋大模型结果的潮位提供,模拟了东中国海潮波的波动过程,对潮波垂直运动过程进行调和分析,得到了渤海、黄海、东海的M2,S2,K1,O1以及N2,K2,P1,Q1八个主要分潮的传播和分布特征。利用中国沿海14个潮位站的调和常数对模型结果进行了验证,验证结果显示模型较为准确可靠。研究结果表明:4个主要半日潮(全日潮)在渤、黄、东海的传播情形基本相似,即潮波在渤海、黄海、东海沿岸的传播性质上类似沿岸开尔文波的传播形态,并且成功再现了计算海域的4个半日分潮无潮点和2个全日分潮无潮点。全日潮振幅各无潮点附近振幅最小,而海湾的波腹区振幅最大,东海潮差呈现近岸方向振幅大、离岸方向振幅小,浙闽沿海振幅也较大,黄海振幅相对较小,渤海振幅在辽东湾和渤海湾顶最大,两个无潮点周边振幅较小。 相似文献
20.
Mangrove forests are vulnerably threatened by sea level rise (SLR). Vegetation organic carbon (OC) stocks are important for mangrove ecosystem carbon cycle. It is critical to understand how SLR affects vegetation OC stocks for evaluating mangrove blue carbon budget and global climate change. In this study, biomass accumulation and OC stocks of mangrove vegetation were compared among three 10 year-old Kandelia obovata (a common species in China) mangrove forests under three intertidal elevations through species-specific allometric equations. This study simulated mangrove forests with SLR values of 0 cm, 40 cm and 80 cm, respectively, representing for the current, future ~100 a and future ~200 a SLR of mangrove forests along the Jiulong River Estuary, China. SLR directly decreased mangrove individual density and inhibited the growth of mangrove vegetation. The total vegetation biomasses were (12.86±0.95) kg/m2, (7.97±0.90) kg/m2 and (3.89±0.63) kg/m2 at Sites SLR 0 cm, SLR 40 cm and SLR 80 cm, respectively. The total vegetation OC stock decreased by approximately 3.85 kg/m2 (in terms of C) from Site SLR 0 cm to Site SLR 80 cm. Significantly lower vegetation biomass and OC stock of various components (stem, branch, leaf and root) were found at Site SLR 80 cm. Annual increments of vegetation biomass and OC stock also decreased with SLR increase. Moreover, significant lower sedimentation rate was found at Site SLR 80 cm. These indicated that SLR will decrease mangrove vegetation biomass and OC stock, which may reduce global blue carbon sink by mangroves, exacerbate global warming and give positive feedback to SLR. 相似文献