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1.
As a first step towards the development of inundation maps for the northwestern Indian Ocean, we simulated the near-field inundation of two large tsunami in the Makran subduction zone (MSZ). The tsunami scenarios were based on large historical earthquakes in the region. The first scenario included the rupture of about 500 km of the plate boundary in the eastern MSZ, featuring a moment magnitude of Mw 8.6. The second scenario involved the full rupture of the plate boundary resulting from a Mw 9 earthquake. For each scenario, the distribution of tsunami wave height along the coastlines of the region is presented. Also, detailed runup modeling was performed at four main coastal cities in the region for the second scenario. To investigate the possible effect of splay fault branching on tsunami wave height, a hypothetical splay fault was modeled which showed that it can locally increase the maximum wave height by a factor of 2. Our results showed that the two tsunami scenarios produce a runup height of 12-18 m and 24-30 m, respectively. For the second scenario, the modeled inundation distance was between 1 and 5 km.  相似文献   

2.
Managed realignment (MR) is a ‘soft’ engineering technique that involves the deliberate landwards retreat of the existing line of coastal defence and subsequent tidal inundation of land. Managed realignment has been established worldwide for over 30 years and its goals may include habitat restoration, recovery of biodiversity and sustainable coastal defence. In southeast England in particular, an increasing number of MR sites (20–110 ha) have been commissioned in the last decade in response to increasing coastal habitat loss and sea-level rise. Following initial sea wall breaching and site flooding, monitoring of these sites is usually carried out for a period of 5 years and during this time changes in ecosystem structure can be easily observed. However, there is a poor understanding of the long-term effects of flooding on soil physicochemical parameters including sediment geochemistry and geochemical cycling, nutrient fluxes and soil maturation processes. Such physical and chemical changes may continue to take place over time-scales exceeding 5 years and therefore current monitoring practices may not be sufficient.  相似文献   

3.
Using an integrated approach including satellite imagery analysis, field measurements, and numerical modeling, we investigated the damage to mangroves caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at Pakarang Cape in Pang Nga Province, Thailand. Comparing pre- and post-tsunami satellite imagery of the study area, we found that approximately 70% of the mangrove forest was destroyed by the tsunami. Based on field observations, we found that the survival rate of mangroves increased with increasing stem diameter. Specifically, we found that 72% of Rhizophora trees with a 25–30 cm stem diameter survived the tsunami impact, whereas only 19% with a 15–20 cm stem diameter survived. We simulated the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami using the nonlinear shallow-water wave theory to reproduce the tsunami inundation flow and investigated the bending moment acting on the mangrove trees. Results of the numerical model showed that the tsunami inundated areas along the mangrove creeks, and its current velocity reached 5.0 m s−1. Based on the field measurements and numerical results, we proposed a fragility function for mangroves, which is the relationship between the probability of damage and the bending stress caused by the maximum bending moment. We refined the numerical model to include the damage probability of mangrove forests using the obtained fragility function to investigate the tsunami reduction effect of mangrove forest. Under simple numerical conditions related to the mangrove forest, ground level, and incident wave, the model showed that a mangrove forest of Rhizophora sp. with a density of 0.2 trees m−2 and a stem diameter of 15 cm in a 400 m wide area can reduce the tsunami inundation depth by 30% when the incident wave is assumed to have a 3.0 m inundation depth and a wave period of 30 min at the shoreline. However, 50% of the mangrove forest is destroyed by a 4.5 m tsunami inundation depth, and most of the mangrove forest is destroyed by a tsunami inundation depth greater than 6 m. The reduction effect of tsunami inundation depth decreased when the tsunami inundation depth exceeded 3 m, and was mostly lost when the tsunami inundation depth exceeded 6 m.  相似文献   

4.
The temporal variability of estuarine sedimentation has been investigated in the northernmost part of the Wadden Sea (Denmark), using an estuarine sedimentary sequence at Ho Havn. The sedimentary sequence appears to have been deposited within the last ∼ 2000 yr based on detailed luminescence dating of the estuarine mud, whose ages range between 225 ± 40 and 2050 ± 300 yr. The age-depth profile reveals that the sedimentation rate has varied considerably in the past. Estuarine sedimentation was very rapid ∼ 1400 yr ago; the ages over almost 1 m of sediment are indistinguishable. After this accretion rate of ∼ 9 mm a− 1, the rate dropped abruptly to ∼ 0.3 mm a− 1 some time between 1340 and 970 yr ago. This slow rate of accretion continued until ∼ 350 yr ago, when it accelerated to ∼ 1.3 mm a− 1. These abrupt changes in the accretion rate are possibly related to local sea level fluctuations, thus the period with low accretion rate most probably reflects a situation with a stable or decreasing relative sea level. The rapid deposition of ∼ 0.9 m of sediment within about one century some 1400 yr ago shows that large amounts of fine-grained sediment were available for deposition in the region at that time, and an increasing relative sea level was most probably responsible for the creation of the accommodation space for sedimentation. Recent studies on mudflats and salt marshes in the region also tend to show high accretion rates, indicating that the coastal lagoons could be less vulnerable and threatened by a future sea level rise than generally believed.  相似文献   

5.
Tsunamis can leave deposits on the land surface they inundate. The characteristics of tsunami deposits can be used to calculate tsunami run-up height and velocity. This paper presents a reconstruction of tsunami run-up from tsunami deposit characteristics in a simple mathematical model. The model is modified and applied to reconstruct tsunami run-ups at Ao Kheuy beach and Khuk Khak beach, Phangnga province, Thailand. The input parameters are grain-size and maximum run-up distance of the sediment. The reconstructed run-up heights are 4.16–4.91 m at Ao Kheuy beach and 5.43–9.46 m at Khuk Khak beach. The estimated run-up velocities (maximum velocity) at the still water level are 12.78–19.21 m/s. In the area located 70–140 m inland to the end of run-up inundation, estimated mean run-up velocities decrease from approximately 1.93 m/s to 0 m/s. Reasonably good agreements are found between reconstructed and observed run-up heights. The tsunami run-up height and velocity can be used for risk assessment and coastal development programs in the tsunami affected area. The results show that the area from 0 to 140 m inland was flooded by high velocity run-ups and those run-up energies were dissipated mainly in this area. The area should be designated as either an area where settlement is not permitted or an area where effective protection is provided, for example with flood barriers or forest.  相似文献   

6.
A 1DV-RANS diffusion model is used to study sand transport processes in oscillatory flat-bed/sheet flow conditions. The central aim is the verification of the model with laboratory data and to identify processes controlling the magnitude and direction (‘onshore’/‘offshore’) of the net time-averaged sand transport. The model is verified with a large series of measured net sand transport rates, as collected in different wave tunnels for a range of wave-current conditions and grain sizes. Although not all sheet flow details are represented in the 1DV-model, it is shown that the model is able to give a correct representation of the observed trends in the data with respect to the influence of the velocity, wave period and grain diameter. Also detailed mean sediment flux profiles in the sheet flow layer are well reproduced by the model, including the direction change from ‘onshore’ to ‘offshore’ due to a difference in grain size from 0.34 mm (medium sand) to 0.13 mm (fine sand). A model sensitivity study with a selected series of net transport data shows that the stirring height of the suspended sediment εs/ws strongly controls the magnitude and direction of the net sediment transport. Inclusion of both hindered settling and density stratification appears to be necessary to correctly represent the sand fluxes for waves alone and for waves + a superimposed current. The best agreement with a large dataset of net transport measurements is obtained with the 1DV-RANS model in its original settings using a Prandtl–Schmidt number σρ = 0.5.  相似文献   

7.
Trophic interactions in commercially exploited demersal finfishes in the southeastern Arabian Sea of India were studied to understand trophic organization with emphasis on ontogenic diet shifts within the marine food web. In total, the contents of 4716 stomachs were examined from which 78 prey items were identified. Crustaceans and fishes were the major prey groups to most of the fishes. Based on cluster analysis of predator feeding similarities and ontogenic diet shift within each predator, four major trophic guilds and many sub-guilds were identified. The first guild ‘detritus feeders’ included all size groups of Cynoglossus macrostomus, Pampus argenteus, Leiognathus bindus and Priacanthus hamrur. Guild two, named ‘Shrimp feeders’, was the largest guild identified and included all size groups of Rhynchobatus djiddensis and Nemipterus mesoprion, medium and large Nemipterus japonicus, P. hamrur and Grammoplites suppositus, small and medium Otolithes cuvieri and small Lactarius lactarius. Guild three, named ‘crab and squilla feeders’, consisted of few predators. The fourth trophic guild, ‘piscivores’, was mainly made up of larger size groups of all predators and all size groups of Pseudorhombus arsius and Carcharhinus limbatus. The mean diet breadth and mean trophic level showed strong correlation with ontogenic diet shift. The mean trophic level varied from 2.2 ± 0.1 in large L. bindus to 4.6 ± 0.2 in large Epinephelus diacanthus and the diet breadth from 1.4 ± 0.3 in medium P. argenteus to 8.3 ± 0.2 in medium N. japonicus. Overall, the present study showed that predators in the ecosystem have a strong feeding preference for the sergestid shrimp Acetes indicus, penaeid shrimps, epibenthic crabs and detritus.  相似文献   

8.
In Belgium, centralized reporting on landings of sea fisheries at the species level started in 1929. This paper summarizes the process and the results of integrating time-series, based on fragmented and disperse data sources for the period 1929–1999. The resulting database contains data by species (41), by port of landing in Belgium (4) and in ‘foreign ports,’ and by fishing area of origin (31). After quality control, total reported landings over the period 1929–2008 amounted to 3,320,518 tonnes, of which 90% was landed in the Belgian ports. After a maximum of 75,370 tonnes in 1947, annual landings declined steadily to only 26% of this peak by 2008. Currently, landings are below those achieved in 1929. The most important species in terms of landings (1929–1999) were cod (17% of all landings) and herring (16%). In terms of economic value, sole (31%) and cod (15%) were the most valuable. Close to 73% of all landings originated from 5 of the 31 fishing areas. Twenty percent of all landings (1929–1999) originated from the ‘coastal waters’, while these waters contributed nearly 60% of all landed pelagic species and 55% of all landed ‘molluscs and crustaceans’. Compared to the currently available ICES data, this local database offers advantages in temporal coverage (data from 1929 onwards), temporal scale (monthly values), and at the taxonomic level. It also provides more detailed information at the spatial scale of the southern and central North Sea, and it is the only source of historical information on landings originating from the coastal waters. Given the importance of the shallow and productive ‘Flemish banks’ as a local source of food in historical and recent times, this data is valuable for further research on the productivity of the coastal ecosystem and the local impact of fisheries. The database broadens the historical view on fisheries, underlines the decline in landings since reporting started, and serves as a basis for further (fisheries) research and policy-making in Belgium.  相似文献   

9.
The rise of tidal level in tidal reaches induced by sea-level rise has a large impact on flood control and water supply for the regions around the estuary.This paper focuses on the variations of tidal level response along the tidal reaches in the Yangtze Estuary,as well as the impacts of upstream discharge on tidal level response,due to the sea-level rise of the East China Sea.Based on the Topex/Poseidon altimeter data obtained during the period 1993～2005,a stochastic dynamic analysis was performed and a forecast model was run to predict the sea-level rise of the East China Sea.Two-dimensional hydrodynamic numerical models downscaling from the East China Sea to estuarine areas were implemented to analyze the rise of tidal level along the tidal reaches.In response to the sea-level rise,the tidal wave characteristics change slightly in nearshore areas outside the estuaries,involving the tidal range and the duration of flood and ebb tide.The results show that the rise of tidal level in the tidal reaches due to the sea-level rise has upstream decreasing trends.The step between the stations of Zhangjiagang and Shiyiwei divides the tidal reaches into two parts,in which the tidal level response declines slightly.The rise of tidal level is 1～2.5 mm/a in the upper part,and 4～6 mm/a in the lower part.The stations of Jiangyin and Yanglin,as an example of the upper part and the lower part respectively,are extracted to analyze the impacts of upstream discharge on tidal level response to the sea-level rise.The relation between the rise of tidal level and the upstream discharge can be fitted well with a quadratic function in the upper part.However,the relation is too complicated to be fitted in the lower part because of the tide dominance.For comparison purposes,hourly tidal level observations at the stations of Xuliujing and Yanglin during the period 1993～2009 are adopted.In order to uniform the influence of upstream discharge on tidal level for a certain day each year,the hourly tidal level observations are corrected by the correlation between the increment of tidal level and the increment of daily mean upstream discharge.The rise of annual mean tidal level is evaluated.The resulting rise of tidal level at the stations of Xuliujing and Yanglin is 3.0 mm/a and 6.6 mm/a respectively,close to the rise of 5 mm/a according to the proposed relation between the rise of tidal level and the upstream discharge.  相似文献   

10.
During a cruise of r/v ‘Oceania’ in May 2006, seven vertical dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration profiles were produced against a background of CTD, chlorophyll a (chl a) and phaeopigment concentration profiles. The results indicate distinct vertical and spatial DOC fluctuations, ranging from 248 ± 7 μmol C dm−3 at 70 m depth at the westernmost station G/06 to 398 ± 5 μmol C dm−3 at 5 m depth at station A/06 in the western Gulf of Gdańsk. DOC concentrations were the highest at 10 m depth, where phytoplankton activity was relatively intensive, as reflected by the active chl a concentration distribution. DOC concentrations decreased towards the sea bottom.  相似文献   

11.
Using whole-ecosystem dynamic simulation models fitted to local data, two coastal communities are described (temperate, northern British Columbia, Canada; tropical, Raja Ampat, Indonesia) where relatively poor fishers’ livelihoods are threatened by climate change and overfishing. A novel theoretical minimum bycatch scenario, the ‘maximum dexterity fleet’, is combined with a search algorithm specifying optimal fisheries to achieve economic and biodiversity goals. Potential gains made by approaching an optimal fleet configuration prove robust against increased risks from climate variability. Although fish, gear and way of life differ greatly, in both communities it is suggested that dexterity (adroitness in adapting fishing gear) could lead to improved benefits from fishing.  相似文献   

12.
Sea-level is one of the principal determinants of shoreline position. Sea-level rise induces or accelerates on-going shore retreat since deeper water decreases wave refraction, thus increasing littoral drift, and also allowing waves to arrive closer to shore before breaking. Tidal records from the US East and Gulf coasts indicate a relative sea-level rise of approximately 0.3m has occurred during the past century. Concomitantly, erosion has been prevalent almost everywhere along these sandy shorelines. Ocean City, Maryland, was selected as a case study site to determine historical shoreline changes and to project future beach erosion based on accelerated rates of sea-level rise. During the past 130 years (1850–1980), this shore has retreated approximately 75m and many highrise buildings at Ocean City are now threatened during storm conditions. Accelerated sea-level rise is expected to increase the rate of retreat by a factor of 2 to 5 based on analysis of present trends. This significantly reduces the planning time available for mitigating the hazard and increases the vulnerability of this urbanised barrier through time.  相似文献   

13.
This study presents a sea-level curve from 9500 to 6500 cal BP for the farfield location of Singapore, on the Sunda Shelf in southeast Asia. The curve is based on more than 50 radiocarbon dates from elevations of +1.43 m to −15.09 m representing sea-level index points in intertidal mangrove and shallow marine sediments deposited by sea-level rise accompanying deglaciation. The results indicate that mean sea level rose rapidly from around −17 m at 9500 cal BP to around −3 m by 8000 cal BP. After this time, the data suggest (but do not unequivocally prove) that the rate of sea-rise slowed for a period of 300–500 years centred on 7700 cal BP, shortly after the cessation of meltwater input to the oceans from the northern hemisphere. Renewed sea-level rise amounting to 3–5 m began around 7400 cal BP and was complete by 7000 cal BP. The existence of an inflection in the rate of sea-level rise, with a slow-down centred on 7700 cal BP, is broadly consistent with other available sea-level curves over this interval and is supported by evidence of stable shorelines and delta initiation elsewhere at this time, as well as evidence of comparatively rapid retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet beginning around 7500 cal BP. ‘Stepped’ sea-level rise occurring shortly after 7500 cal BP and also earlier during deglaciation may have served to focus significant post-glacial episodes of human maritime/coastal dispersal, into comparatively narrow time intervals.  相似文献   

14.
A 2-phases neural prediction method for wave overtopping is developed. The ‘classifier’ predicts whether overtopping occurs or not, i.e. q = 0 or q > 0. If the classifier predicts overtopping q > 0, then the ‘quantifier’ is used to determine the mean overtopping discharge. The overtopping database set up within the EC project CLASH (De Rouck, J., Geeraerts, J., 2005. CLASH Final Report, Full Scientific and Technical Report, Ghent University, Belgium) is used to train the networks of the prediction method.  相似文献   

15.
Visualising coastal zone inundation is crucial for both a quick assessment of coastal vulnerability and a full understanding of possible implications to population, infrastructure and environment. This study presents a simple but effective method of assessing the spatial extent of coastal zone inundation due to predicted sea level rise using commonly available elevation and image data as well as GIS software. The method is based on the geometrical principle of matching the raised sea level with the corresponding elevation contour line on land. Results for a test area along the south-west coast of Western Australia (∼200 km of coast line) show that a sea level rise of less than 0.5 m over the 21st century will have only minor impact but will become important when added to an extreme sea level event (e.g. storm surge). Both century-scale (∼0.5 m) based on tide gauge records and larger (>few metres) longer-term sea level rise predictions based on the melt of ice covered areas show essentially the same areas that are most vulnerable. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by the detection of areas that can be protected by relatively small flood protective structures at river and estuary entrances, thus providing valuable information for policy makers and local councils.  相似文献   

16.
In order to reconstruct former sea level we have developed a foraminifera-based transfer function using three models based on a modern dataset of 59 samples and 23 species obtained from four Basque marshes in Northern Spain. The relationship between observed and foraminifera-predicted elevation illustrated the strong performance of the transfer function (r2jack ranges from 0.74 to 0.81). These results indicated that precise reconstructions of former sea levels are possible (error ranges from 0.11 to 0.19 m). The transfer function was used to calibrate the foraminiferal assemblages collected from a 50 cm salt marsh core. We placed the foraminifera-based reconstructions into a temporal framework using 137Cs, Pb concentrations, and 210Pb-derived sediment accumulation rates. The resulting relative sea-level curve is in good agreement with regional tide-gauge data. Both instrumental data and microfossil records suggest a rate of relative sea-level rise of approximately 2 mm yr− 1 for the 20th century.  相似文献   

17.
The Canadian Model of Ocean Carbon (CMOC) has been developed as part of a global coupled climate carbon model. In a stand-alone integration to preindustrial equilibrium, the model ecosystem and global ocean carbon cycle are in general agreement with estimates based on observations. CMOC reproduces global mean estimates and spatial distributions of various indicators of the strength of the biological pump; the spatial distribution of the air-sea exchange of CO2 is consistent with present-day estimates. Agreement with the observed distribution of alkalinity is good, consistent with recent estimates of the mean rain ratio that are lower than historic estimates, and with calcification occurring primarily in the lower latitudes. With anthropogenic emissions and climate forcing from a 1850-2000 climate model simulation, anthropogenic CO2 accumulates at a similar rate and with a similar spatial distribution as estimated from observations. A hypothetical scenario for complete elimination of iron limitation generates maximal rates of uptake of atmospheric CO2 of less than 1 PgC y−1, or about 11% of 2004 industrial emissions. Even a ‘perfect’ future of sustained fertilization would have a minor impact on atmospheric CO2 growth. In the long term, the onset of fertilization causes the ocean to take up an additional 77 PgC after several thousand years, compared with about 84 PgC thought to have occurred during the transition into the last glacial maximum due to iron fertilization associated with increased dust deposition.  相似文献   

18.
During a recent (2006) cruise of RV ‘Dana’ high resolution side-scan sonar and sub-bottom profiling was carried out on selected shelf and slope transects offshore Disko Bugt, central West Greenland. Available commercial seismic data from the margin indicate here irregular seabed morphology with erosional features locally extending down to c. 1100 m water depth. The newly acquired side-scan sonar data reveal the presence of giant iceberg plow marks extending (sub)parallel to the slope between about 800 and 1085 m water depth. The height difference between bottom of the scours and rim crest is up to 40 m. The largest plow marks are about 750 m wide. To date no observed modern icebergs including those from Antarctica have drafts in excess of c. 500 m. Taking into account maximum glacial sea level lowering of c. 120 m, the paleo-iceberg keel depth was at least 950 m. Due to the presence of the relatively shallow (< 700 m) sill of Davis Strait to the south, calving of these paleo-icebergs is thought to have occurred from an ice margin in the Baffin Bay region (Jakobshavn Isbræ paleo-ice stream?). The depth of occurrence (> 1000 m) and dimensions of the plow marks are concluded to be exceptional, and comparable to glacial scouring features reported from the Arctic Ocean.  相似文献   

19.
In different parts of the Dutch Wadden Sea, relationships between intertidal level and abundance of marine macrozoobenthos were similar. Numerical densities, biomass and species richness increased from values close to 0 at the high-water level to maximum values around mean-tide level (numbers) or halfway between this level and low-tide level (biomass). Species richness hardly declined below mean-tide level, whereas mean weight per individual continued to increase from high- to low-water level.Biomass was about 45 g ash-free dry weight per m2 at its maximum and declined in an approximately linear way to values close to 0 at the high-water level and to about 7 g per m2 at the low-water level. These two linear relationships were used to predict biomass changes on intertidal flats of the Wadden Sea at various scenarios of sea-level rise and bottom subsidence. Net sea-level rise is expected to result in increased amounts of intertidal zoobenthos in areas with predominantly high tidal flats, but in declines in lower areas. However, such changes will occur only if sea-level rise proceeds too fast to be compensated by extra sedimentation. Bottom subsidence as a consequence of gas extraction is expected to be too small to cause any measurable change in the benthic fauna.  相似文献   

20.
The study of past changes in sea level, and of historical and pre-historical coastal evolution, using coastal sediment stratigraphies is well-established over a range of geographic areas, in both seismic and aseismic settings. In the eastern Mediterranean, however, such studies are less common, and, notably, the use of sediment geochemistry, and its combination with lithostratigraphic studies to analyze palaeoenvironmental and palaeo-sea-level change, has not been explored to any significant extent, despite the fact that geochemical data have been successfully used elsewhere to aid in the identification of sea-level changes. Here, we use a combined geochemical, stratigraphic and microfossil approach to reconstruct late Holocene coastal evolution and sea-level change at two sites near Gythio in the southern Peloponnese, Greece. The sites show stratigraphic and geochemical evidence of the presence in Late Helladic times (ca. 1500 BC) of barrier-protected coastal lagoonal/wetland environments, which have gradually infilled over the last ca. 3500 yr. Archaeological remains and ceramic and charcoal-bearing horizons within the sediment sequences indicate Late Roman occupation of the area, although there is no sedimentary evidence of significant pre-Roman activity at the study sites. An apparent brackish wetland peat deposit at − 3.4 m (overlain by anoxic lagoonal clays) at Kamares (Kato Vathi) Bay shows a calibrated radiocarbon age of 1640–1440 BC, suggesting a relative sea-level rise of 0.8–1 mm/yr in this area over the past 3500 yr, in good agreement with previous archaeological and sea-level modelling studies. There is no evidence, based on the stratigraphic, microfossil or geochemical record, of sudden marine flooding events related to local or regional seismic activity, despite the presence of the area in a seismically active zone known to be subject to periodic earthquakes and tsunami. The data highlight the utility of combining geochemical and stratigraphic studies in the reconstruction of coastal evolution and the study of palaeo-sea-level changes, particularly in sequences (such as those described here) where microfossils are poorly preserved.  相似文献   

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