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1.
《Marine Policy》2002,26(2):121-131
Naval programs are back on the agenda in East Asia, after a lull in defence spending in the wake of the Asian financial crisis. The region is facing increased tensions at sea unless there is a new focus on maritime confidence-building measures. The region does, however, need to tread warily with naval cooperation, lest it stimulate controversy and tension, while gradually moving to exploit those opportunities for building confidence at sea. 相似文献
2.
海表面温度预报在海洋相关领域具有重要的实用价值,随着遥感信息采集技术的不断发展和完善,区域内海表面温度数据采集的完整性得到了保障。现今大多数方法在预报海表面温度时,只考虑了海表面温度的时间相关性,并未利用其空间相关性,使得预报精度受到限制。针对该问题,本文将区域内每天的海表面温度数据作为一个矩阵输入模型,便于时间和空间信息的提取,并提出了CA-ConvLSTM模型来预报海表面温度。该模型首先利用卷积层对海表面温度矩阵进行局部特征提取,然后通过注意力模型为矩阵序列分配权重,将权重与矩阵序列对应相乘得到加权特征序列,最后,利用ConvLSTM进行预报,获得未来一天或五天内的海表面温度。通过实验确定模型的结构、输入尺寸和k值,再将CA-ConvLSTM与SVR、LSTM和ConvLSTM进行对比。实验结果表明:CA-ConvLSTM的均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error,RMSE)和预报精度(Prediction Accuracy,PACC)指标均要优于其他三种预报方法,验证了本文方法的有效性。 相似文献
3.
《Marine Policy》2015
California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) off the coast of Southern California are known to damage both commercial and recreational fishing activities, causing decreases to fish catch and damage to gear. Their increasing population has intensified the potential for conflict between sea lions and anglers, likely requiring changes to current legislation. The recreational fishing community in Southern California is a valuable and largely underutilized source for information and potential solutions to management and legislative problems. This recreational fishing survey-based study conducted in 2013 utilized personal interviews, conducted in the field with recreational anglers and commercial passenger fishing vessel (CPFV) crews in Southern California, to gather data on: (a) the occurrence and impact of sea lion depredation on the local fishing, (b) angler awareness and opinions on current legislation, and (c) the conflict between fishing activities and conservation efforts. Results show that surveyed CPFV operators and private boaters had the most conflict with sea lions and perceive them as more of a problem than anglers on piers, jetties or kayaks. The conflict was also reportedly more prevalent in San Diego County compared to the other counties surveyed (Orange, Los Angeles and Ventura). Participating CPFV operators were overwhelmingly in support of a government culling program for sea lions, while recreational angler respondents did not feel that a control program was necessary. These CPFV operators reported more money lost, and were willing to pay more for an effective deterrent device. There was also a consensus among respondents that fish catch is declining, yet anglers were unsatisfied with the effectiveness of current legislation designed to increase fish stocks. These data will provide a better understanding of California sea lion depredation in Southern California and its effect on recreational anglers in order to aid future mitigation efforts. Additionally, these results provide stakeholder feedback on local marine protected areas and other fisheries management legislation, and build a foundation for future conservation and education programs. 相似文献
4.
Extreme sea levels associated with severe cyclonic storms are common occurrences along the east coast of India. The coastal districts of Orissa have experienced major surges in the past. The recent Paradip super cyclone is one of the most severe cyclones, causing extensive damage to property and loss of lives. Extreme sea levels are major causes for coastal flooding in this region. Damages can be minimized if the extreme sea levels are forecast well in advance. In the present study, we develop a location specific, fine resolution model for the Orissa coast on the lines similar to that of IIT-D storm surge model (Dube et al. 1994). The model runs on a personal computer. The bathymetry for the model is extracted from very fine resolution naval hydrographic charts for the region extending from the south of Orissa to south of West Bengal. A simple drying scheme has also been included in the model in order to avoid the exposure of land near the coast due to strong negative sea surface elevations. An attempt was made in this study to simulate extreme sea levels along the Orissa coast using the data of past severe cyclones. The model results reported in the present study are in good agreement with available observations or estimates. 相似文献
5.
Extreme sea levels associated with severe cyclonic storms are common occurrences along the east coast of India. The coastal districts of Orissa have experienced major surges in the past. The recent Paradip super cyclone is one of the most severe cyclones, causing extensive damage to property and loss of lives. Extreme sea levels are major causes for coastal flooding in this region. Damages can be minimized if the extreme sea levels are forecast well in advance. In the present study, we develop a location specific, fine resolution model for the Orissa coast on the lines similar to that of IIT-D storm surge model (Dube et al. 1994). The model runs on a personal computer. The bathymetry for the model is extracted from very fine resolution naval hydrographic charts for the region extending from the south of Orissa to south of West Bengal. A simple drying scheme has also been included in the model in order to avoid the exposure of land near the coast due to strong negative sea surface elevations. An attempt was made in this study to simulate extreme sea levels along the Orissa coast using the data of past severe cyclones. The model results reported in the present study are in good agreement with available observations or estimates. 相似文献
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8.
Mark T. Gibbs 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(4):669-680
Current meter data from the coastal ocean at Sydney, south‐eastern Australia, were analysed to seek evidence of a response to the prevailing summer sea breeze. A response to the sea breeze was found in the currents. This is significant since the magnitude of the sea breeze was small by comparison with winds associated with large‐scale pressure systems and the East Australian Current. Responses were determined by analysing short periods (3–5 days) of sea breeze activity as opposed to the whole 2‐month data set. The correlations between the alongshore nearshore diurnal‐period currents and the local wind stress during the sea breeze periods were significantly higher than the correlations during non‐sea‐breeze periods. Despite the stronger correlations the sea breeze could only account for around one‐quarter of the variance in the diurnal‐period currents. However, the detection of the response to the sea breeze is significant since the sea breeze has never previously been identified as a process for forcing alongshore nearshore currents on this shelf. 相似文献
9.
《Marine Policy》2017
This paper outlines research on the sea transport need and potential options for the future for the islands of Gau, Batiki and Nairai, Southern Lomaiviti, Fiji. Sea transport is vital for this island group but is limited to infrequent commercial ferry services and outboard driven punts. The Fiji Government subsidises the ferries through its Shipping Franchise Scheme to ensure commercial operators service the route. The absence of commercial development within the group has meant high biodiversity and cultural values have been preserved and there are a number of projects, especially on Gau, with a common aim of building resilience or ‘climate change proofing’ the communities and their island environments. These projects are focused on supporting local communities to maintain well-being through improved reliance on local and natural assets. It is logical to add analysis of low carbon sea transport options to these initiatives. Lomaiviti has been selected as representative of a number of isolated Maritime Provinces in the Pacific. This paper is expected to pave the way for greater research in this field and assist in solving the crippling effect of the region's current fossil fuel dependency. 相似文献
10.
Peter Nailor 《Marine Policy》1980,4(3):236-237
This article introduces a new feature in MARINE POLICY. The aim of the series is to present the views of specialists on questions of maritime strategy and naval policy. Future articles will focus on three broad areas: the major political and technical issues involved in framing future naval strategy; analyses of individual states' strategic outlooks and naval procurement policies; and surveys of the arenas of potential maritime conflict. Professor Peter Nailor of the Royal Naval College, Greenwich, UK, begins the series with a wide-ranging consideration of the issues confronting naval powers in the development of future maritime strategy and defence policies. 相似文献
11.
冬季强冷空气造成的大风对海上船只影响较大，所以对于强冷空气影响的时间和强度的预报至为重要。本文借鉴了决策支持系统的研制方法，建立了渤、黄海冬季强冷空气智能预报决策系统。该系统拥有数据库及其管理系统、模型库及其管理系统、知识库和内部通讯系统；该系统采用了定量预报加定性分析的方法，把数学模型与预报员的经验有机地结合到一起。 相似文献
12.
目前,国内外大尺度天气预报数值模式已经取得很大成就,如在预报地面气旋系统的移动和发展等方面。然而,这些模式的铅直分辨率一般不高,通常不包括边界层的动力过程,因而,在预报海面风场上,数值天气预报模式还没有令人满意的效果。目前所用的边界层预报模式尽管具有较高的水平分辨率和垂直分辨率,但要求大量的计算和资料,很难用于日常业务预报;另一种边界层诊断模式,用到的风场数据是气象工作者从天气形势(大尺度)分析中,通过差值等方法获得的,缺乏针对性,而且精度较低(WMO,1988;WMO,1990)。
作者认为,适于海洋要素预报的风场模式应是定位于有限区域,或称中尺度模式,并根据台站的具体资料来源和工作状况力争建立一套适于海洋要素预报的中尺度风场数值模式。鉴于以上,作者建立了一个适于海洋要素预报的有限区域海面风场数值模式。模式采用符合动力及热力学条件的简化方程组对大尺度风场进行加密,通过数值模拟得到适于海洋要素预报的有限区域海面风场。并将该模式运用于渤海这一有限区域,获得了良好的效果,说明该模式对海洋要素预报具有很好的应用前景。 相似文献
13.
The process of upwelling/sinking and associated sea level variations are seen as a response of coastal ocean to pure wind stress forcing. Further,precipitation and monsoonal floods, apart from the marine meteorological parameters, are expected to influence the sea level fluctuations along the coast. This study comprises determining the sea level from the various parameters together with the pure wind stress forcing, which is compared with the observed cycle. However, it is found that there is considerable difference between the computations and observations. This suggests that the sea level is dependent not just on the local forcing alone, but also on the induced background circulation as well. For example, the sea level changes along the east coast of India, particularly the northern region, are more sensitive to freshwater discharge from various rivers joining the Bay of Bengal. This is due to more frequently occurring pre- and postmonsoon cyclonic storms and the associated surges in the Bay of Bengal as compared to the Arabian Sea. Hence the salinity effects are particularly important in the coastal waters off the east coast of India during monsoon months (June-September). For the west coast of India, however, it is expected that the large-scale coastal circulation may play a role in determining sea level changes in addition to other forcings. The salinity effects are negligible along the west coast in the absence of any major river systems that join the Arabian Sea. The local advection currents caused by the offshore directed freshwater discharge from various estuaries joining the coastal bay also seemed to influence the sea level. In order to elucidate the essential dynamics involved and to study the effect of the remote forcing, a three-dimensional baroclinic, nonlinear numerical model is used with appropriate open boundary conditions. The local effect of the current has been incorporated in the west coast model by means of opening a channel at Cochin through which the rainwater is carried away to the model ocean. The low saline plume, cascading from north along the east cost of India, has been incorporated in the east coast model through a proper forcing applied at the northern boundary of the model. With the inclusion of these remote forcings in the models, the disagreement between the simulations and the observations is minimized. 相似文献
14.
The process of upwelling/sinking and associated sea level variations are seen as a response of coastal ocean to pure wind stress forcing. Further,precipitation and monsoonal floods, apart from the marine meteorological parameters, are expected to influence the sea level fluctuations along the coast. This study comprises determining the sea level from the various parameters together with the pure wind stress forcing, which is compared with the observed cycle. However, it is found that there is considerable difference between the computations and observations. This suggests that the sea level is dependent not just on the local forcing alone, but also on the induced background circulation as well. For example, the sea level changes along the east coast of India, particularly the northern region, are more sensitive to freshwater discharge from various rivers joining the Bay of Bengal. This is due to more frequently occurring pre- and postmonsoon cyclonic storms and the associated surges in the Bay of Bengal as compared to the Arabian Sea. Hence the salinity effects are particularly important in the coastal waters off the east coast of India during monsoon months (June-September). For the west coast of India, however, it is expected that the large-scale coastal circulation may play a role in determining sea level changes in addition to other forcings. The salinity effects are negligible along the west coast in the absence of any major river systems that join the Arabian Sea. The local advection currents caused by the offshore directed freshwater discharge from various estuaries joining the coastal bay also seemed to influence the sea level. In order to elucidate the essential dynamics involved and to study the effect of the remote forcing, a three-dimensional baroclinic, nonlinear numerical model is used with appropriate open boundary conditions. The local effect of the current has been incorporated in the west coast model by means of opening a channel at Cochin through which the rainwater is carried away to the model ocean. The low saline plume, cascading from north along the east cost of India, has been incorporated in the east coast model through a proper forcing applied at the northern boundary of the model. With the inclusion of these remote forcings in the models, the disagreement between the simulations and the observations is minimized. 相似文献
15.
Reiner Rummel 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(3):219-220
Concern over the impact of change in sea level is of topical interest internationally, but for the small island states of the Caribbean, a significant increase would prove to be catastrophic. The potential problem is being addressed as part of the much larger issue of climate change, and just this year a regional Climate Change Centre was established in Belize. Means of adapting to accommodate change will be considered under the Mainstream Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) project, but initially the threat needs to be quantified. While meteorological offices have been accumulating weather data in some parts of the region for many years, sea level data is more scarce. This work puts least squares methods to test by applying them to spectral analysis of intermittent data sets acquired over periods of 6 and 9 years at two locations in Trinidad. The resulting sea level models that include 13 periodic components, datum bias, trend and atmospheric pressure are validated using fundamental historical information and observations that form the subject of discussion among local professional surveyors. Results show that while sea level at a location in North Trinidad is rising at the rate of about 1 mm a year, the change at a Southern site is about four times this amount. Horizontal movement has been measured across a tectonic fault that parts the island, and it is now apparent that there may be some vertical motion on this or some other fault lines in the region. 相似文献
16.
Keith M. Miller 《Marine Geodesy》2005,28(3):219-229
Concern over the impact of change in sea level is of topical interest internationally, but for the small island states of the Caribbean, a significant increase would prove to be catastrophic. The potential problem is being addressed as part of the much larger issue of climate change, and just this year a regional Climate Change Centre was established in Belize. Means of adapting to accommodate change will be considered under the Mainstream Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) project, but initially the threat needs to be quantified. While meteorological offices have been accumulating weather data in some parts of the region for many years, sea level data is more scarce. This work puts least squares methods to test by applying them to spectral analysis of intermittent data sets acquired over periods of 6 and 9 years at two locations in Trinidad. The resulting sea level models that include 13 periodic components, datum bias, trend and atmospheric pressure are validated using fundamental historical information and observations that form the subject of discussion among local professional surveyors. Results show that while sea level at a location in North Trinidad is rising at the rate of about 1 mm a year, the change at a Southern site is about four times this amount. Horizontal movement has been measured across a tectonic fault that parts the island, and it is now apparent that there may be some vertical motion on this or some other fault lines in the region. 相似文献
17.
《Marine Policy》2013
Border disputes between neighbouring States are a regular occurrence and have the potential to undermine relations at national, regional, local and even individual level. In this instance the conflict over Piran Bay in the Northern Adriatic Sea has led to conflict between the neighbouring States of Croatia and Slovenia. The lack of resolution of this conflict resulted in Croatia being delayed in its accession into the European Union (EU). The border dispute remains unresolved and will go to international arbitration in 2013. Yet it is unlikely that arbitration will provide a solution agreeable to all stakeholders. It is likely that residual feelings of injustice will remain, especially at local level. Analysis of the political context of the dispute and recognition of the biological importance of the region has led to opportunity to combine politics and biological conservation to establish an International Marine Peace Park (IMPP) as a potential mitigation measure to help resolve the conflict. This initiative aims to develop regional ownership over a shared marine space linking the local communities of Slovenia and Croatia that co-habit the adjacent Istrian peninsula. The area of the proposed Piran–Savudrija IMPP hosts numerous habitat types and species which are representative of the region and are of international and national conservation importance. The policies and opportunities associated with EU accession provide the potential political, economic and environmental frameworks to develop a regional agency or a bi-national steering committee for the management of the area. This could allow local communities to develop equitable management and restore good relations while preserving an important regionally representative marine area. 相似文献
18.
Traditionally autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) have been built with a torpedo-like shape. This common shaping is hydrodynamically suboptimal for those AUVs required to operate at snorkeling condition near the free surface. In this case, the wave resistance associated to the wavy deformation of the sea surface induced by the motion of the platform is an important component of the drag. This work has investigated the optimum hull shape of an underwater vehicle moving near the free surface. Specifically a first-order Rankine panel method has been implemented to compute the wave resistance on a body of revolution moving close to the free surface. A simulated annealing algorithm was then employed to search those set of parameters defining the hull shape that minimize the wave resistance. The optimization was constrained to keep constant the total volume of the vehicle. The total drag of scaled models of the torpedo-like and resulting optimum shapes was measured in the naval tank of the University of Trieste. Measurements showed a smaller resistance of the optimized shape in the range of the considered Froude numbers. 相似文献
19.
Steric sea level changes estimated from historical ocean subsurface temperature and salinity analyses 总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13
Masayoshi Ishii Masahide Kimoto Kenji Sakamoto Sin-Iti Iwasaki 《Journal of Oceanography》2006,62(2):155-170
An historical objective analysis of subsurface temperature and salinity was carried out on a monthly basis from 1945 to 2003
using the latest observational databases and a sea surface temperature analysis. In addition, steric sea level changes were
mainly examined using outputs of the objective analyses. The objective analysis is a revised version of Ishii et al. and is
available at 16 levels in the upper 700 m depth. Artificial errors in the previous analysis during the 1990s have been worked
out in the present analysis. The steric sea level computed from the temperature analysis has been verified with tide gauge
observations and TOPEX/Poseidon sea surface height data. A correction for crustal movement is applied for tide gauge data
along the Japanese coast. The new analysis is suitable for the discussion of global warming. Validation against the tide gauge
reveals that the amplitude of thermosteric sea level becomes larger and the agreement improves in comparison with the previous
analysis. A substantial part of local sea level rise along the Japanese coast appears to be explained by the thermosteric
effect. The thermal expansion averaged in all longitudes from 60°S to 60°N explains at most half of recent sea level rise
detected by satellite observation during the last decade. Considerable uncertainties remain in steric sea level, particularly
over the southern oceans. Temperature changes within MLD make no effective contribution to steric sea level changes along
the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. According to statistics using only reliable profiles of the temperature and salinity analyses,
salinity variations are intrinsically important to steric sea level changes in high latitudes and in the Atlantic Ocean. Although
data sparseness is severe even in the latest decade, linear trends of global mean thermosteric and halosteric sea level for
1955 to 2003 are estimated to be 0.31 ± 0.07 mm/yr and 0.04 ± 0.01 mm/yr, respectively. These estimates are comparable to
those of the former studies. 相似文献