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1.
An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical–biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye (Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization [Senina, I., Sibert, J., Lehodey, P., 2008. Parameter estimation for basin-scale ecosystem-linked population models of large pelagic predators: application to skipjack tuna. Progress in Oceanography]. Once this evaluation and parameterization is complete, it may be possible to use the model for management of tuna stocks in the context of climate and ecosystem variability, and to investigate potential changes due to anthropogenic activities including global warming and fisheries pressures and management scenarios.  相似文献   

2.
中西太平洋是全球主要的鲣鱼(Katsuwonus pelamis)围网作业渔场,渔场极易受到海洋环境的影响,但渔场分布在众多岛国的管辖海域,如何科学指导企业准确入渔是重要的研究课题。本文根据1995-2012年中西太平洋鲣鱼围网捕捞生产统计数据,选取产量最高的22个海区(5°×5°),结合Niñ;o3.4区海表温度距平值(SSTA)和作业海域表温(SST),研究中西太平洋鲣鱼围网渔场的空间分布规律,同时,以各海区捕捞努力量(作业次数)所占的百分比为入渔指标,建立基于环境因子的入渔决策模型。研究认为,中西太平洋鲣鱼捕捞努力量在纬度方向上主要分布于5°S~5°N,其累计捕捞努力量占所有作业海区的87.4%,其中以130°~140°E经度范围为最高,其捕捞努力量占22个海区的45.08%。入渔指标与Niñ;o3.4区的SSTA、作业海域SST均符合正态模型(P<0.01),Niñ;o3.4区的SSTA最适值为0.25℃,作业海域SST最适值在29.5℃左右。对预测和实际排名前十的海域进行统计发现,预测值与实际值基本一致。研究认为,所建立的入渔预测模型可有效指导企业的渔业生产,为提高企业生产效率提供支撑。  相似文献   

3.
Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) stock abundance is tightly driven by the high and unpredictable variability of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem. Management of the fishery therefore cannot rely on mid- or long-term management policy alone but needs to be adaptive at relatively short time scales. Regular acoustic surveys are performed on the stock at intervals of 2 to 4 times a year, but there is a need for more time continuous monitoring indicators to ensure that management can respond at suitable time scales. Existing literature suggests that spatially explicit data on the location of fishing activities could be used as a proxy for target stock distribution. Spatially explicit commercial fishing data could therefore guide adaptive management decisions at shorter time scales than is possible through scientific stock surveys. In this study we therefore aim to (1) estimate the position of fishing operations for the entire fleet of Peruvian anchovy purse–seiners using the Peruvian satellite vessel monitoring system (VMS), and (2) quantify the extent to which the distribution of purse–seine sets describes anchovy distribution. To estimate fishing set positions from vessel tracks derived from VMS data we developed a methodology based on artificial neural networks (ANN) trained on a sample of fishing trips with known fishing set positions (exact fishing positions are known for approximately 1.5% of the fleet from an at-sea observer program). The ANN correctly identified 83% of the real fishing sets and largely outperformed comparative linear models. This network is then used to forecast fishing operations for those trips where no observers were onboard. To quantify the extent to which fishing set distribution was correlated to stock distribution we compared three metrics describing features of the distributions (the mean distance to the coast, the total area of distribution, and a clustering index) for concomitant acoustic survey observations and fishing set positions identified from VMS. For two of these metrics (mean distance to the coast and clustering index), fishing and survey data were significantly correlated. We conclude that the location of purse–seine fishing sets yields significant and valuable information on the distribution of the Peruvian anchovy stock and ultimately on its vulnerability to the fishery. For example, a high concentration of sets in the near coastal zone could potentially be used as a warning signal of high levels of stock vulnerability and trigger appropriate management measures aimed at reducing fishing effort.  相似文献   

4.
印度洋鲣鱼围网资源渔场时空变化及其与ENSO的关系   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
鲣鱼是印度洋重要的金枪鱼种类之一,其资源丰度与海洋环境关系密切。本研究根据1980-2010年印度洋鲣鱼围网生产统计数据以及海洋环境与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)指数等,对印度洋鲣鱼围网资源渔场时空分布,以及厄尔尼诺年和拉尼娜年等不同尺度气候条件下鲣鱼资源渔场时空变动及其与海洋环境因子的关系进行分析。研究结果表明,1980-2010年印度洋鲣鱼围网渔获量基本保持不断增加的趋势,但CUPE值变化幅度较大,最低仅为0.68 t/d(1997年),最高达到1.58 t/d(2002年)。同时鲣鱼资源丰度(CPUE)与Ni?o3.4区指数存在显著的负相关关系,即厄尔尼诺年,鲣鱼CPUE 随之下降,拉尼娜年,CPUE 随之上升。ENSO现象对鲣鱼渔场时空分布也有显著影响,厄尔尼诺发生时,鲣鱼围网作业渔场重心会向东、向北移动,而拉尼娜年则向西、向南移动。  相似文献   

5.
We describe a multi‐stock, length‐based Bayesian assessment model for New Zealand spiny lobster (Jasus edwardsii) fisheries. This model allows simultaneous modelling of two or more stocks with a mixture of common and stock‐specific parameters: recruitment is always stock‐specific, but any other parameter can be specified as either common or stock‐specific. Common parameters are estimated from a wider base than they would be in a single‐stock model. The model's time step is flexible and can be changed during the period being modelled to accommodate better data quality in recent data. Other options include the capacity to estimate movements among stocks, allow density‐dependent growth, and choose among likelihood functions for the various data sets, between finite and instantaneous fishing dynamics and between two forms of selectivity curve.  相似文献   

6.
We describe the development and preliminary application of the inverse Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), a four dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system for high-resolution basin-wide and coastal oceanic flows. Inverse ROMS makes use of the recently developed perturbation tangent linear (TL), representer tangent linear (RP) and adjoint (AD) models to implement an indirect representer-based generalized inverse modeling system. This modeling framework is modular. The TL, RP and AD models are used as stand-alone sub-models within the Inverse Ocean Modeling (IOM) system described in [Chua, B.S., Bennett, A.F., 2001. An inverse ocean modeling system. Ocean Modell. 3, 137–165.]. The system allows the assimilation of a wide range of observation types and uses an iterative algorithm to solve nonlinear assimilation problems. The assimilation is performed either under the perfect model assumption (strong constraint) or by also allowing for errors in the model dynamics (weak constraints). For the weak constraint case the TL and RP models are modified to include additional forcing terms on the right hand side of the model equations. These terms are needed to account for errors in the model dynamics.Inverse ROMS is tested in a realistic 3D baroclinic upwelling system with complex bottom topography, characterized by strong mesoscale eddy variability. We assimilate synthetic data for upper ocean (0–450 m) temperatures and currents over a period of 10 days using both a high resolution and a spatially and temporally aliased sampling array. During the assimilation period the flow field undergoes substantial changes from the initial state. This allows the inverse solution to extract the dynamically active information from the synthetic observations and improve the trajectory of the model state beyond the assimilation window. Both the strong and weak constraint assimilation experiments show forecast skill greater than persistence and climatology during the 10–20 days after the last observation is assimilated.Further investigation in the functional form of the model error covariance and in the use of the representer tangent linear model may lead to improvement in the forecast skill.  相似文献   

7.
The design of submarines has continually evolved to improve survivability. Explosions may induce local damage as well as global collapse to a submarine. Therefore, it is important to realistically estimate the possible damage conditions due to underwater explosions in the design stage. The present study applied the Arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian (ALE) technique, a fluid–structure interaction approach, to simulate an underwater explosion and investigate the survival capability of a damaged submarine liquefied oxygen tank. The Lagrangian–Eulerian coupling algorithm, the equations of state for explosives and seawater, and the simple calculation method for explosive loading were also reviewed. It is shown that underwater explosion analysis using the ALE technique can accurately evaluate structural damage after attack. This procedure could be applied quantitatively to real structural design.  相似文献   

8.
Because climate change challenges the sustainability of important fish populations and the fisheries they support, we need to understand how large scale climatic forcing affects the functioning of marine ecosystems. In the Humboldt Current system (HCS), a main driver of climatic variability is coastally-trapped Kelvin waves (KWs), themselves originating as oceanic equatorial KWs. Here we (i) describe the spatial reorganizations of living organisms in the Humboldt coastal system as affected by oceanic KWs forcing, (ii) quantify the strength of the interactions between the physical and biological component dynamics of the system, (iii) formulate hypotheses on the processes which drive the redistributions of the organisms, and (iv) build scenarios of space occupation in the HCS under varying KW forcing. To address these questions we explore, through bivariate lagged correlations and multivariate statistics, the relationships between time series of oceanic KW amplitude (TAO mooring data and model-resolved baroclinic modes) and coastal Peruvian oceanographic data (SST, coastal upwelled waters extent), anchoveta spatial distribution (mean distance to the coast, spatial concentration of the biomass, mean depth of the schools), and fishing fleet statistics (trip duration, searching duration, number of fishing sets and catch per trip, features of the foraging trajectory as observed by satellite vessel monitoring system). Data sets span all or part of January 1983 to September 2006. The results show that the effects of oceanic KW forcing are significant in all the components of the coastal ecosystem, from oceanography to the behaviour of the top predators – fishers. This result provides evidence for a bottom-up transfer of the behaviours and spatial stucturing through the ecosystem. We propose that contrasting scenarios develop during the passage of upwelling versus downwelling KWs. From a predictive point of view, we show that KW amplitudes observed in the mid-Pacific can be used to forecast which system state will dominate the HCS over the next 2–6 months. Such predictions should be integrated in the Peruvian adaptive fishery management.  相似文献   

9.
A video-based technique for mapping intertidal beach bathymetry   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Measuring the location of the shoreline and monitoring foreshore changes through time are core tasks carried out by coastal engineers for a wide range of research, monitoring and design applications. With the advent of digital imaging technology, shore-based video systems provide continuous and automated data collection, encompassing a much greater range of time and spatial scales than were previously possible using field survey methods.A new video-based technique is presented that utilises full-colour image information, which overcomes problems associated with previous grey-scale methods, which work well at steep (reflective) sites, but are less successful at flatter (dissipative) sites. Identification of the shoreline feature is achieved by the automated clustering of sub-aqueous and sub-aerial pixels in ‘Hue–Saturation–Value’ (HSV) colour space, and applying an objective discriminator function to define their boundary (i.e., ‘shoreline’) within a time-series of consecutive geo-referenced images. The elevation corresponding to the detected shoreline features is calculated on the basis of concurrent tide and wave information, which is incorporated in a model that combines the effects of wave set-up and swash, at both incident and infragravity frequencies.Validation of the technique is achieved by comparison with DGPS survey results, to assess the accuracy of the detection and elevation methods both separately and together. The uncertainties associated with the two sub-components of the model tend to compensate for each other. The mean difference between image-based and surveyed shoreline elevations was less than 15 cm along 85% of the 2-km study region, which corresponded to an horizontal offset of 6 m. The application of the intertidal bathymetry mapping technique in support of CZM objectives is briefly illustrated at two sites in The Netherlands and Australia.  相似文献   

10.
This study focuses on body size–abundance distributions of nano- and micro-phytoplankton guilds in coastal marine areas of the Southern Adriatic–Ionian region. The aim of the study was to evaluate the occurrence of common patterns of body size–abundance distributions in relation to physical, chemical and biological environmental forcing factors and to taxonomic composition of phytoplankton guilds. This paper is based on data collected during four oceanographic cruises carried out seasonally along the Southern Apulian coast (Adriatic and Ionian Seas, SE Italy) as a part of the INTERREG II Italy–Greece Program. The study was performed at 21 stations located on 7 transects perpendicular to the coastline, with 3 stations per transect at a distance of 3, 9 and 15 NM from the coastline. At each station, profiles of the major physical features of the water were determined and water samples were collected for phytoplankton and nutrient analysis. Overall, 320 nano- and micro-phytoplankton taxa were identified, 76% of which at species level, with phytoplankton cells ranging in size from 0.008 to 4697.54 ng. Body size–abundance distributions showed some common features: they were relatively invariant (average similarity 65%) with respect to taxonomic composition (average similarity 32%), right skewed (90%), leptokurtic (77%) and log normal (76%). Moreover, abiotic, biotic and spatial ecosystem components accounted for up to 75% of body size–abundance distribution variation. The results of this study suggest that body size–abundance distributions are an intrinsic property of marine phytoplankton communities, emphasising functional dependence on ecological constraints related to trophic factors and intra-guild coexistence relationships.  相似文献   

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